Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

COVID Questions Linger

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by

James A. Bacon
in

by James A. Bacon

There is still much we don’t know about the COVID-19 virus and the effect it has on the human body. One enduring mystery is the syndrome dubbed “long COVID,” when symptoms persist months or years after the infection. Why do some people get it while others don’t? What are the risk factors? What are the odds of contracting long COVID?

The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) issued a preliminary report based on interviews of 68 Central Virginia residents a half year ago. Soon, according to the Virginia Mercury, VDH will conduct a study focusing on Southwest Virginia residents.

The findings of the initial study were informative. Obesity is a risk factor: 52% of long-COVID sufferers were obese, and another 27% were overweight. (The combined percentage is higher than the 68% of all Virginia adults being overweight or obese.) Failure to keep up with COVID vaccinations is another risk factor: 88% of long-COVID patients were not up-to-date with their vaccinations.

The more we know the better. The VDH studies are worthwhile. But there are other big knowledge gaps that warrant study — in particular, the prevalence of vaccination side effects. Some scientific studies have linked the vaccinations with a higher incidence of blood clotting, certain types of cancers and an elevated mortality rate in the population.

Why aren’t we studying the vaccination side effects as well?

I’d like to see a website where I can enter my personal data and ascertain my risk of…

  • being hospitalized for COVID-19
  • dying from COVID-19
  • experiencing long COVID
  • experiencing vaccination side effects

based upon the following data…

Source: Virginia Department of Health Long COVID Preliminary Report
  • age
  • previous COVID exposure
  • BMI index
  • preexisting conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, asthma, chronic lung disease, etc.
  • Vitamin D deficiency
  • vaccination status
  • any other known risk factors

Numerous websites list the major risk factors, but I found only one that asked fairly detailed information, and that was a Pfizer-sponsored questionnaire by Ada, a developer of health management apps. Based on two risk factors — age over 65 and hypertension — Ada told me I’m at “high risk for progression to severe COVID-19.”

Not terribly useful.

How severe is “severe COVID-19”? Requiring hospitalization?

How high is “high risk”? A 5% chance? A 50% chance?

What are the odds of getting long COVID? How much do I improve my odds if I get vaccinated?

Conversely, what are the odds of experiencing a severe vaccination side effect?

I’d like to know the risks so I can exercise informed judgments about the places I go and activities I undertake. I’d like to understand the risks pro and con for getting a second vaccine booster.

With the rise of personalized medicine and all the hype about Artificial Intelligence, surely someone is capable of developing such basic risk assessments. We’d all be better off if we could make informed decisions.

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39 responses to “COVID Questions Linger”

  1. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    "I’d like to know the risks so I can exercise informed judgments about the places I go and activities I undertake. I’d like to understand the risks pro and con for getting a second vaccine booster."

    Otherwise known as compliance with the Nuremberg Code. I'm not forgetting.

  2. Thomas Dixon Avatar
    Thomas Dixon

    COVID is a cold virus. The risks of stroke, heart attack, miscarriages, accelerated cancers, suppressed immune systems, are the result of the bioweapon shots, especially if you were unfortunate enough to believe the CDC and it's lying lacky, the VDH and got more than two boosters. I can't believe people still don't get this.

    1. Rosie Avatar
      Rosie

      It’s a pretty crappy bio-weapon. Had to get two cancer screenings this year, and negative. Been getting SINISTER GENETIC POISON every season now.

      Or is this the test weapon? Has the goal posts been moved yet, or is that backup excuse waiting a bit longer?

  3. James Kiser Avatar
    James Kiser

    You can go to Dr. Malone's substack column and get all the info you need on the vaccine side effects and failure to prevent the Fauci/Chinese virus.

  4. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “…88% of long-COVID patients were not up-to-date with their vaccinations…”

    Compared to what control?

    “Why aren’t we studying the vaccination side effects as well?”

    I mean really… found this study in like 40 seconds…

    https://www.bmj.com/content/384/bmj.q488

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      “Easier to ask forgiveness than permission” can now be shortened to “easier to ask”.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Given the general distrust of science with regard to Covid, I wonder "who" would "study" it that would be trusted….since as you point
      out, there actually has been quite a few done and no shortage of
      folks disputing and having doubts.

      Now, the ability of the FDA to make recommendations and decisions is under question.

  5. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    "With the rise of personalized medicine and all the hype about Artificial Intelligence, surely someone is capable of developing such basic risk assessments. We’d all be better off if we could make informed decisions."

    Even computer programs that predict or diagnose illness require FDA approval.

    That's a long and expensive process with no guarantee that you'll get the approval.

    How much would you be willing to pay to get a probabilistic estimate of your risks?

  6. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    Speaking about questions around Covid …. Biden has Covid. He's running around in a car with other people. Close quarters. Nobody is wearing a mask. Why not? There is no 6 feet of separation between Biden and others. Why not?

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Post quarantine

      1. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        But I thought only uncaring and selfish conservatives refused to voluntarily mask and distancing protocols…

        At least that was the line 4 years ago from the government worshipping hectoring squads.

    2. Chip Gibson Avatar
      Chip Gibson

      Biden actually has Evil Consumption Disorder (ECD). Not contagious but can be bought.

    3. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      Both he and the rest of us will be safe when he's six feet under. With a little luck the demented old fool won't take the rest of us with him. You kids get off my lawn or I'll nuke 'ya. Giggles will save us, or not.

  7. WayneS Avatar
    WayneS

    Speaking of Covid, I heard this morning that the president has Covid again. I put on my tin foil conspiracy theorist hat and came up with this gem (who knows, maybe it will get legs):

    1) The president gets sicker and sicker with Covid over the next few weeks/months. Doctors work heroically to cure him but to no avail. Then, either:
    a) Mr. Biden announces he will finish out his term but is removing himself from the current race, placing Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket for 2024;
    b) Mr. Biden's cabinet invokes the 25th and removes him from office, making Kamala Harris president and moving her to the top of the ticket for 2024; or,
    c) Sadly and tragically, Mr. Biden dies from Covid, thereby making Kamala Harris president and moving her to the top of the ticket for 2024.

    2) Kamala Harris announces she has chosen none other than Hillary Clinton as her running mate.

    3) The sympathy vote and residual love for Hillary allow the pair to eke out a win in November.

    4) Two years and a few days or weeks into her first term, Kamala Harris tragically dies in office.

    5) Hillary Clinton finally takes her "long deserved and long over-due" place in the Oval Office.

    6) And, because Kamala Harris was [slightly] more than two tears into her term, Hillary Clinton has a shot at serving a total of [nearly] ten years in office instead of the maximum eight years most presidents might expect.

    And no, I do not believe that is what will happen…

    …but it could… 😎

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      Add one. Harris selects Ralph Northam as a running mate. Because she is that smart.

      1. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        Are you sure Harris is that smart. I was counting on her not understanding exactly how much danger she'd be in if she was the only person standing between Hillary Clinton and the presidency…

        1. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          Would that still be considered Arkanacide?

    2. James Kiser Avatar
      James Kiser

      Where Hillary and Obama are involved anything is believable and probably in the works.

    3. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      Man, you know what you have started… have fun…

      1. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        That was the point.

    4. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      Cackles^2 could be their campaign slogan.

    5. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      There’s some saying about monkeys and flying, but I don’t think it’s more than a tangential reference to Oz.

      They draft Michelle who picks Barack for VP.

      1. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        And it would be legal, because the XXII Amendment to the Constitution says a person cannot be elected to the office more than twice, it says nothing about the total number of terms a person can serve.

    6. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      Giggles and the Chipmunk. It's a cautionary bedtime tale to scare children and adults.

  8. fairfaxwarriormom Avatar
    fairfaxwarriormom

    Several organizations have been tracking this information since 2020. Unfortunately, the Virginia Dept of Health scrubbed its mortality data so there is no way to compare all cause mortality stats pre and post 2020. But the risks vs benefit are easy to find.

    https://icandecide.org/
    https://covid19criticalcare.com/
    https://www.vacsafety.org/

  9. lhfry Avatar
    lhfry

    The adenovirus vector vaccines (Johnson &Johnson) have a beneficial side effect – lower all-cause mortality. This is the result of studies by Christine Benn whose expertise is vaccine side effects including beneficial side effects.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37163200/

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Wow. Damn, I got Moderna.

      1. Lefty665 Avatar
        Lefty665

        There were some other issues with J&J so Moderna was not a bad bet. That's what I got too. It has seemed to be the pick of the litter.

  10. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    And given the vagueness of "long COVID," is it possible that some of the cases are lingering and mild vaccine injury?
    This used to be called asking questions in the pursuit of truth. Mandating an experimental medical product violated the Nuremberg Code without informed, willing consent. The AG's opinion was facially wrong. If I could spot the bait and switch, so could "smart" lawyers. A disgrace. And no one will be held accountable. No person involved will admit their politically biased mistakes. Taking doctors' licenses. Creating CDC studies designed to fail for HCQ and IVM. No apologies for censorship. No apologies for what was done to the kids. The bankruptcies. The wrong treatment protocols. Etc, ad infinitum…

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Considering the vaccinated are less likely to get long covid…

      1. walter smith Avatar
        walter smith

        Really? Proof?
        I can show that the “vaccinated” (thrice-jabbed, not vaccinated as historically understood but re-defined to justify worldwide violation of Nuremberg Code for mistreatment of a US funded genetically engineered virus) at UVA were MORE likely to get Covid than the evil unvaccinated students who were subjected to weekly testing. So how would that make them more likely to get “long COVID?” If 10% of un-“vaccinated” got COVID, while 12.5% of the thrice “vaccinated” got COVID during the academic year, where is your authority for the thrice “vaccinated” would be less likely to get “long COVID?” And if you show me a CDC “study” from that time period, I’ll point out the loopholes, as a history major…

      2. Chip Gibson Avatar
        Chip Gibson

        Where's the proof of that?

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2403211

          Same link as in a post at the top level

          “Among unvaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2, the cumulative incidence of PASC during the first year after infection was 10.42 events per 100 persons (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.22 to 10.64) in the pre-delta era, 9.51 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 9.26 to 9.75) in the delta era, and 7.76 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 7.57 to 7.98) in the omicron era (difference between the omicron and pre-delta eras, −2.66 events per 100 persons [95% CI, −2.93 to −2.36]; difference between the omicron and delta eras, −1.75 events per 100 persons [95% CI, −2.08 to −1.42]). Among vaccinated persons, the cumulative incidence of PASC at 1 year was 5.34 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 5.10 to 5.58) during the delta era and 3.50 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 3.31 to 3.71) during the omicron era (difference between the omicron and delta eras, −1.83 events per 100 persons; 95% CI, −2.14 to −1.52). Vaccinated persons had a lower cumulative incidence of PASC at 1 year than unvaccinated persons (difference during the delta era, −4.18 events per 100 persons [95% CI, −4.47 to −3.88]; difference during the omicron era, −4.26 events per 100 persons [95% CI, −4.49 to −4.05]). Decomposition analyses showed 5.23 (95% CI, 4.97 to 5.47) fewer PASC events per 100 persons at 1 year during the omicron era than during the pre-delta and delta eras combined; 28.11% of the decrease (95% CI, 25.57 to 30.50) was attributable to era-related effects (changes in the virus and other temporal effects), and 71.89% (95% CI, 69.50 to 74.43) was attributable to vaccines.”

          Yeah, yeah. Science. What do they know?

          1. Chip Gibson Avatar
            Chip Gibson

            Biased test sample – regardless, the pool of "vaccinated" was missing those that were killed or badly injured by the shot. Again, it is not a vaccine.

          2. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            There really is no stopping you people. Wouldn’t matter if the vaccine killed 50% of the people who got them. These are all survivors of Covid.

            I guess I should have included the disclaimer “No dead people were injured in the conduct of this study. We didn’t even include them.”

  11. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Don’t wanna risk “long covid”? Get vaccinated.
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2403211

  12. Lefty665 Avatar
    Lefty665

    Old is the biggest single risk factor. All the other maladies we accumulate add to that. Vaccines, despite their shortcomings do seem a good bet to prevent severe illness and long covid in us geezers. Dunno about side effects, all I've had is a sore shoulder for a day or so and a little more than usual lethargy. Folks here on BR probably think that's a feature not a bug.

  13. Chip Gibson Avatar
    Chip Gibson

    "Why aren’t we studying the vaccination side effects as well?" Because the truth would be alarming.

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