Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

COVID-19 Update: Yup, the Virus Has Plateaued

—

by

James A. Bacon
in ,

One hundred and ninety-nine COVID-19 patients were discharged from Virginia hospitals yesterday, exceeding the 66 patients admitted, according to the latest data from the Virginia Department of Health and the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association (VHHA). The excess of discharges over admissions represents a major milestone in the fight against the deadly disease.

Perhaps it is time for Governor Ralph Northam to declare victory and move on. His draconian social-distancing policies are working. The spread of the COVID-19 virus has plateaued. He has “flattened the curve.” The number of confirmed cases in Virginia is still increasing, but at a steady rate, not an exponential rate. Hospitals are not at any near-time risk of running out of beds, ICUs or ventilators. Indeed, even the shortage of personal protective equipment may be easing. By the latest VHHA count, only six hospitals reported that they expected difficulty in replenishing their supplies over the next 72 hours.

But rather than take the opportunity to trim the rules that have tanked Virginia’s economy, delayed elective procedures, and restricted the liberties of its citizens, the Governor announced yesterday that he would extend them another two weeks to May 9. I’ll say more about that in an upcoming column. In the meantime, let’s look at the latest numbers.

COVID-19 spread

Total tests: 46,444, up 2,275
Total confirmed cases: 6.889, up 389 from the previous day
% tests positive: 17.1% yesterday
Total hospitalizations: 1,114, up 66 from the previous day
Total deaths: 208, up 13
Total hospital discharges: 951, up 199


Hospital capacity

Available beds: 5,543, down 74
Currently hospitalized for COVID-19: 800, down two
ICUs in use: 427, up 33
Ventilators in use: 234, up four

Update: And better late than never, here is John Butcher’s graph showing how the number of confirmed new cases yesterday fits a curve that has peaked.

— JAB

Share this article

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

Comments

54 responses to “COVID-19 Update: Yup, the Virus Has Plateaued”

  1. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    I just heard Jim Cramer on CNBC claim there is a 9% case fatality rate. He said it twice. That’s the most ridiculous statement about this disease I’ve heard in a while, intentionally terrifying. Combining ignorance with a shortage of actual data is a very dangerous thing to do. And then the result comes from the mouth of a man with a huge national following.

    The # of cases as announced by VDH is so meaningless it is hard to imagine. It may be off by a factor of ten or more. There may be another 20,000 Virginians who 1) got sick, toughed it out at home, and never got tested or 2) got infected, never got sick (but perhaps shed plenty of virus for days and days.)

    It is nowhere near time for anybody to declare victory and move on. It is time to be planning and prepping for that eventual day, which we all hope is just weeks away.

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      I think he multiplied instead of divided, or he forgot the age group modifiers. I think the estimate is about 2%, 3 to 4 times that of the flu.

      You don’t invest based on what he says, do you?

  2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Uh yep.

    Forget testing. Forget waiting for a vaccine. Forget risking an early return. I have the solution.

    I guarantee that there are organizations in Virginia that I could give your name, DOB and Social Security number, and they can provide a likelihood of COV2 killing you if infected. Anthem, Aetna, etc.

    Dosing is the answer. Get the list of high risk people, set up a 5000 bed facility fully equipped for ICU capabilities and dose them. This way, they’re already set for care improving their chances to survive.

    As one goes out the door, bring another in. Hey, beats xyklon-B.

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      A month ago I was among those worried the cure would be worse than the disease, and the situation now is horrible and can hardly be called “a cure.” But my attitude did shift with the strong evidence of non-symptomatic spread. The whole blame game exercise now about who did what when ignores that basic fact – people acted ON WHAT THEY WERE TOLD AT THE TIME. And the story was it was like SARS, only sick people spread it. Who knew? Hindsight really is 20-20.

      But within weeks some activities can resume. If Newport News Shipyard can run this long with so few cases popping up, and a number of other “essential” business now have four weeks of operation, well what they’ve been doing can slowly transfer to more of those now closed. Perhaps restaurants won’t want to operate with a bunch of two-tops only for family-connected customers, ten feet apart. But customers are going to be slow to return anyway, out of fear. If hardware stores function, why not furniture stores? It is time to draft those rules, get them out in advance.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        I suspect that masks and hand washing, after keeping them in your pockets, would suffice. We are now aware that distance, no touching, and small gatherings reduces risk even more. So just keeping the rate down is doable now.

        Sadly, we’re learning more about how little else we may be able to do. Testing: none of these assay machines have undergone rigorous testing for accuracy for the COV2, and COV2 isn’t the only coronavirus that can return a positive. There are some cold viruses that will return a positive.

        The virus has already mutated. This is a mixed bag. Apparently, mutations preclude a vaccine one-and-done solution. OTOH, the researchers said this is a slow mutation rate comparatively.

        As you mentioned, the asymptomatic spread, currently advertised at upto 3 days before symptoms in those that do show symptoms. Add this do reinfections, and I dunno what really can be done.

        Just punch a small hole in the mask for a straw, and reopen the bars.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          and then this:

          ” Coronavirus patients are testing positive after recovery
          South Korea reported Monday at least 116 patients who had been cleared of the virus tested positive again”

          1. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            The current thinking is that the earlier clear tests were false negatives, rather than this being new infections. Various researchers are testing this hypothesis.

        2. virginiagal2 Avatar
          virginiagal2

          Nancy, from what I’ve read and heard from friends who work in public health, the mutations in the virus are not large. They allow you to trace the sources of the virus, but they don’t preclude vaccine development. They are not currently believed to be like the larger variations you see in influenza strains.

  3. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    “Forget testing. Forget waiting for a vaccine. Forget risking an early return.”

    This kind of nonsense is all too typical of your contribution to the blog, Nancy Naive. You’re obviously an intelligent person. From time to time, you offer valuable perspectives. But hyperbolic rhetoric like this makes it impossible to carry on a dialogue — and that’s what we’re trying to achieve on this blog, a dialogue.

    There is no earthly way you can impute to my post an advocacy of dropping testing, not waiting for a vaccine, or embarking upon a risky “early return.” I said that I would address the issues of what to do next in a subsequent column. If you disagree with my thinking, feel free to expresses your disagreements. But please refrain from making stuff up.

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      I would have thought you capable of recognizing satire. Maybe I need to reread some of your opinions?

      If I could edit it, I’d give it a title, A Modest Proposal

      1. Steve Haner Avatar
        Steve Haner

        Jonathan Swift you ain’t.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Yep, no question, some are not admirers of this style of sardonic wit and satire, but she has been adhering to Jim’s Pyramid.

          Not everyone here likes everyone else – but that not a reason to have them berated as a person.

          If Jim wants to add more rules to his pyramid then he should post it and all of us should have to abide by it.

          As long as this blog promotes itself as hearing all voices – it should.

          If that changes, and some have their voices silenced, it will be a sad day indeed.

        2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          God I hope not. He was mad as a hatter and then died.

      2. DeptOfTyranny Avatar
        DeptOfTyranny

        [sarc] Nancy, feel free to keep yourself on lock-down ’til you feel its safe to come out [/sarc]

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          It’s safer under the stairs.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            maybe, unless you find DeptOfTyranny already hiding there… 😉

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Jim – there are others here who spout really outrageous stuff and you let it go. Are you now going to decide which posts are “appropriate” or not?

      If you are, then you do need to post your criteria rather than just arbitrarily weighing in on some posts and not others.

  4. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    We’re “peaking” while in severe lock-down.

    Want to “peak” again – just stop the lock-down.

    Want to exceed the capacity of the hospitals – yep – remove the lock-down.

    Yes, there are folks who are advocating this.

    But few businesses are going to re-open when contagion is running amok.

    Blaming the lockdown on govt is mindless when ignoring it will result in panic and mayhem.

    We think of ourselves as “modern”. We are reverting to medieval instincts.

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      “One enemy can do more hurt than ten friends can do good.” Nancy alluded to Jonathan Swift so I went and gathered some quotes: “Nothing is more generally exploded than the folly of talking too much,” is another one Wiki supplied, that one for you.

      So, Larry, we just sit back and go into full scale depression? While Europe and Asia are actively working on a comeback? I know you live and breathe to attack Trump and Republicans, and that’s all you actually care about, and a depression in October will improve Biden’s chances, but for that you would put the United States into full depression?

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        As I said earlier, Swift was crazier than a bag of rats in burning meth lab. I don’t know that I’d quote him.

      2. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Steve -is this a two-fer for me to respond to?

        And no, I do not “live and breath to attack Trump and Republicans but they do have their problems and this is an example of some.

        I do NOT favor a depression at all and really do resent your attitude – you know nothing guy…guy.. you really do reflect badly on yourself sometimes when you attribute this stuff to me and others. It’s on you.

        We’ve been dealt a horrible hand by the Pandemic. No country has opened back up and most of them are doing what we are doing – basically saying that we cannot just stop the social distancing.

        That’s just the reality. It’s no one’s fault.

        Opening back up without maintaining social distancing will result in disaster – thousands of needless deaths.

        And few businesses are going to open up anyhow if contagion stalks the streets and it is not safe.

        why are you so willing to assign blame here?

      3. virginiagal2 Avatar
        virginiagal2

        If we don’t take the right steps, then reopening just results in all the problems we originally feared, on top of an already weakened economy. It also reduces consumer confidence that things are safe, prolonging the downturn.

        The key is really doing the best job possible of making things as safe as possible while minimizing damage to the economy. That’s going to require smart, tailored solutions and willingness to adapt as we learn more.

        So for manufacturing and food processing, it might be plexiglass partitions between workstations, daily temperature monitoring, wearing masks, modifying how you clock in to be no physical contact, and social distancing in things like lunchrooms.

        For retail it might be normalizing masks, social distancing to keep people apart, and plexiglass barriers for cashiers.

        Overall it’s going to be temperature checks, rapid testing like we have for flu, lots and lots of testing, normalizing masks, normalizing keeping distance, barriers to protect cashiers, and rapidly responding to any new outbreaks.

        It can be done. But reopening is not going to be the same as going back to normal.

  5. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    Agree it is too early to declare victory. I keep hoping for a plateau but when it seems so, there’s a spike.

  6. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    May 9? June 10? Northam is like a Ouija Board spitting out random dates with no clear back up for his draconian lockdown. He never figured out how to get a testing regime working in Virginia and I see no reason to believe he will figure out how to reopen Virginia’s economy. We elected a governor that is over his head. Overmatched by circumstances. It happens. We’ve had overmatched governors before, we’ve had overmatched presidents, I imagine the people of New York City are really wondering about their decision to elect de Blasio. In retrospect he seemed to be very overmatched.

    So, here we are. Now what?

    Just because our governor is over his head doesn’t mean our whole state government (past and present) is over its head. Where are the leaders of Virginia’s state Democratic Party? Where are Justin Fairfax, Herring, Saslaw, Filler-Corn, Petersen, Howell, etc? MIA. Where are the state’s Republicans? Where is Norment for example? Or Bill Bolling? MIA. Where are Kaine and Warner? MIA.

    Northam started to admit he was overmatched when he brought in McKinsey. It was too little and perhaps too late but it evidenced a necessary introspection that could be useful with the reopening. It’s time for Northam to name a small group of former leaders to draw up a reopening plan. Start with McAuliffe and McDonnell. Maybe Mark Warner. Where’s Tom Davis? People who have gotten things done in the past.

    The real crime in management isn’t needing help, it’s failing to ask for help when it is needed.

    Northam needs help.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      and the beat goes on………..

      If the day comes when Virgina’s blame Northam I will say you were right after all.

      Will you?

      https://news.vcu.edu/image/15680

      1. Steve Haner Avatar
        Steve Haner

        For once I”ll turn the table. Please answer my question. Are you okay with slipping into full depression? Rather than finding safe ways to reopen gradually?

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Is this a question like “will you stop beating your wife”?

          are you better than this – prove it.

          what is with you?

          1. Steve Haner Avatar
            Steve Haner

            It’s a fair question. Which is why you want to dodge it.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            No it’s not a fair question and you know it and I’m on to your style of interaction here.

            NO ONE wants a depression but the folks who make that the question are not really interested in the answer anyhow.

            This is not a good side of you.

            What you are doing is personal and you do know it.

          3. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Psst, tell him, “It’s a sick world, and I’m a happy fella.” That’s the only answer to that kind of question.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            and he apparently is not – and it’s others fault… ergo blame them

            kinda adolescent if you ask me.

          5. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Then that must be his 2nd adolescence, headed to childhood.

        2. virginiagal2 Avatar
          virginiagal2

          I think they’re working on safe ways to reopen. FWIW.

  7. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    Am interested in mcKinsey since a couple of former colleagues work there. I also note that the firm was so out of touch that it held a big convention in the Chinese province where Xi Jinping is housing 1 million Muslim Uighurs in government re education camps

  8. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    Jim Bacon. I find your scolding of Nancy Naive to be abusive. Apparently it is only for conservatives to be witty and incisive. You nay be guilty of an “ad hominem attack” which is the lowest form.

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      So, it constitutes a “scolding” when I calmly point out that NN’s characterization of my post was wildly inaccurate? Really?

      When NN suggested that her comment was satire, I let it drop.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        do you do that with all commenting? why this time ?

        what “rules” was she violating?

  9. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The outbreak in DOC has not plateaued. The latest report shows a total of 46 offenders in custody who are actively being treated for covid-19. Six of those are in a hospital. Yesterday’s report showed a total of 42 in treatment. The number of positive cases has spread to another facility–the Harrisonburg Community Corrections Alternative Program (CCAP). (This facility is used to house nonviolent offenders, whom the courts decided did not need to be sent to prison but should have some residential programming and supervision. The offenders housed in these facilities are considered to be on probation.)

    DOC has expanded its reporting to show the total cumulative number of covid-19 cases, including those who are in treatment, have recovered, have been released from custody, or have died. That number is 53.

    There are news reports today that several advocacy groups are claiming that there are multiple juvenile offenders in the Bon Air , operated by the Department of Juvenile Justice, who have tested positive. Regarding the incidence of staff and offenders testing positive, the department will say only that “those early numbers have grown a bit”, but refuses to release specific numbers.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      If you believe DJ and Sherlock – this is another “failure” of Northam..

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        I would say that the lack of transparency of DJJ is a failure of someone in his administration. The DJJ director reports to the Secretary of Public Safety who reports to the Governor.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          I don’t disagree but anyone who reads the

          Virginia Coalition for Open Government

          knows that how much information is provided is a long-standing issue that involves the General Assembly as much or more than the administration and it’s been this way for a long time – long before this guy became Gov.

          Virginia Department of Corrections v. Surovell
          In the Supreme Court of Virginia
          September 17, 2015

          The Virginia Supreme Court rules that a trial court must make its own determination of the property of withholding documents when a security interest is cited, but while doing so, it must accord “substantial weight” to the agency’s (in the case, the Virginia Department of Corrections) determinations.

          https://www.opengovva.org/virginia-department-corrections-v-surovell

          1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
            Dick Hall-Sizemore

            The FOIA provides exemptions from the requirement that agencies provide information, but it does not require that agencies refuse to provide the requested information. The agency has discretion to withhold information. In this case, DJJ is exercising that discretion, thereby lending credence to the charge that many juvenile offenders are sick with covid-19. The Governor could direct the agency to publicly report how many positive cases it has had. Revealing the number does not violate the privacy rights of the juveniles just as the privacy rights of adult offenders are not violated by DOC’s reports.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I agree but point out that the GA can mandate this in code and that at Northams level it is discretionary.

            I do not doubt for a New York minute that the various state agencies will use whatever tools available to them to suppress negative information. It is the way that people are.

            The gov could make it an issue – agreed.

  10. johnrandolphofroanoke Avatar
    johnrandolphofroanoke

    I know what I want for Christmas. XL Bacons Rebellion t shirt. Any chance Santa is listening?

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      That’s a great idea.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      XXL for me – shrinkage from overseas products… which I’m sure it would be.
      Unbeknownst to many here, Bacon, back in the day, did organize a Richmond get together for Baconuaghts … and perhaps would do so again and include a souvenir T-shirt but probably festooned with Libertarian foolishness…

      From some of the commentary here.. I’m not sure I want to get to know some “better”, but I digress… big time..

  11. cjbova Avatar
    cjbova

    JAB, The numbers you use in the chart don’t use the VHHA number of hospitalized with tests pending. Today’s pending number went up again to 537. When you look at VHHA’s total hospitalizations for positive and pending, the number is up 39 to 1337.

    Even if you add just VHHA’s 800 current hospitalizations with positive tests plus 951 total discharges, you get 1751 which is significantly more than VDH’s total hospitalizations of 1114 since March 19. So it’s likely VDH’s total cases are low too.

    Considering the VDH record of lagging on reports, especially after seeing what Dick Hall-Sizemore just posted on DOC numbers, I’ll wait to see a week of VHHA numbers before accepting there’s really a plateau.

    1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
      Reed Fawell 3rd

      Carol – stop messing with Jim’s wishful thinking!

  12. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    I think we are far from out of woods on the virus angle of this story. But if we are, the hero leaders here as to Virginia dodging a bullet reside outside the state – namely those on front lines in New York City, the Federal Government, and Larry Hogan. They all together built a wall that isolated Virginia’s weak underbelly, Northern Virginia.

    That now is history, but not beside the point. Because there is huge work to be done, at very great risks. How to we get state and nation open and healthy again before all hell breaks loose? And the viruses potential for causing great remaining pain, death, and trouble in that quest is why I fear we are not close to out of the woods yet. Plus part of all hell breaking loose will be cheap politicians and rabid and irresponsible journalists playing their usual games with this ongoing crisis that likely has only just started on many very dangerous and complex fronts.

  13. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    Well said, Brother Reed. Please don’t vote my comment away!

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      🙂

  14. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    James,

    Run a smoother over that data. Given reports on days, I-1, I, I +1, then create a smooth report, s(I) = r(i-1j/4 + r(I)/2 + r(I+1)/4. For I=1,2,3,…

    Then fit the smoothed data. We know there are lags and delays, and this mitigates the effect.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Yep. It appears that NN has some knowledge – why not let him/her take a run at the data?

    2. virginiagal2 Avatar
      virginiagal2

      I think that would be useful. I was also not sure the curve was a good fit.

      In a similar vein, I have seen different numbers for Virginia that look less hopeful. Not sure why they differ, but would like to try to understand. I know I’m late to the party, but as a favor, could I please get a link to the source of the data for new infections and deaths?

Leave a Reply

Read More