Bacon's Rebellion

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COVID-19 Update: The Madness Goes On

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Bacon’s Rebellion ascertains “new” hospitalizations by calculating the change in the “Total Hospitalizations” figure published by the Virginia Department of Health from one day to the next.

Here, according to this morning’s Virginia Department of Health (VDH) dashboard, is an up-to-date look at new COVID-19 hospitalizations. (As always, we must be wary of weekend reporting lags, but VDH and Virginia hospitals seem to have tightened up their reporting and compiling these days, so the lag is not as pronounced as it once was.) Bottom line: The number of new hospitalizations yesterday fell to 72 from 105 the day before.

Regarding key indices on Virginia hospital capacity, we get these numbers from the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association:

COVID-19 patient count (confirmed and tests pending): 1,436 Saturday, up 31
ICUs in use: 387, up 30
Ventilators in use: 217, down six
Beds available: 5,320
Hospitals experiencing difficulty replenishing PPEs: two

Nearly all hospitals have ample excess capacity to handle COVID-19 patients. Meanwhile, Governor Northam, who does not trust hospitals to manage their own patient loads, has extended his ban on elective procedures until the end of the month. Thirty thousand Virginia healthcare practitioners are out of work, and hospitals are losing millions of dollars in revenue every day. I can hardly wait to see the bill for the bail-out!

— JAB

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5 responses to “COVID-19 Update: The Madness Goes On”

  1. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    VDH reports 2,014 (2,007 confirmed positives) hospitalizations this morning, still with the footnote that it is probably an under count. VHHA reports 1436. The 578 patient count discrepancy remains unexplained.

    1. cjbova Avatar
      cjbova

      VDH gives a cumulative number of hospitalizations as of the time they became aware of the case. Footnote** Hospitalization status at time case was investigated by VDH. This understates the total number number of hospitalizations in Virginia. VHHA give the current number hospitalized by positive tests and by pending tests and the combined total.

      To get the change in the current number of hospitalizations each day, you need to compute the number discharged that day plus the increase or decrease in hospitalized from the day before.

      VHHA’s cumulative total 3,251 since April 6 (1436 in hospitals today PLUS 1815 discharged since April 6) shows VDH’S number is meaningless.

  2. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    “The 578 patient count discrepancy remains unexplained.”

    Former Va. patients buried in open graves at undisclosed locations in Great Dismal Swamp, and/or across the border in West Virginia’s Cranberry Wilderness Backcounty, perhaps?

  3. cjbova Avatar
    cjbova

    I should have added that there is no VHHA breakdown between confirmed positives discharged and presumptive discharged.

  4. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The daily report on DOC is mixed: The total number of inmates currently testing positive increase from the day before from 216 to 232, but the total number in the hospital dropped from 8 to 7.

    Probably the biggest worry for DOC is Deerfield, which holds its most vulnerable population, geriatric and assisted living. The number of positive cases increased to 63 from 53 the day before. Some of this increase may be the result of DOC completing the testing of all inmates and staff at the facility. However, the number of inmates in the hospital increased from 1 to 2.

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