Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

COVID-19 Update: March 19

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Virginia continued its upward trajectory, increasing to 94, according to data just published by the Virginia Department of Health (VDH). That represents an increase of 17 cases from the day before, which in turn had represented an increase of 10 from the previous day.

Does the “increase in the increase” suggest that COVID-19 cases now are surging at an continually accelerating rate — the nightmare scenario? That’s possible. However, it’s also possible that the numbers reflect the larger number of tests administered. The number of people tested yesterday was 645, the highest total yet. If more people are being tested, more cases of the coronavirus will be identified.

The VDH data display now includes the number of hospitalizations and fatalities, making it far more useful for analyzing trends. Hospitalizations have increased to 19, a very manageable number at this point in time. No immediate strain on Virginia hospitals. Two fatalities have been attributed to the virus. I don’t know if it’s possible to collect it or not, but one more data set would be incredibly useful as we track COVID-19 over the long term — the number of patients released from hospitals. VDH, if you’re listening, that would help us better gauge patient load compared to hospital capacity.

— JAB

Share this article

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

Comments

7 responses to “COVID-19 Update: March 19”

  1. Acbar Avatar
    Acbar

    Italy, here we come.

  2. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Yep. Tip of the iceberg. Speaking of ice, a ray of good news. Earlier reports of the efficacy of anti-malarial chloroquine are being confirmed. Quinine. The stuff in tonic water. G&Ts all around! To borrow a line from Sam in Casablanca, that’ll take the sting out of being quarantined!

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      Sorry to disappoint you, but it looks as if Trump was speaking out of turn again. The FDA has said it first needs to be tested.

  3. cjbova Avatar
    cjbova

    Well, this isn’t good. https://www.wtkr.com 10:26 AM, Mar 19, 2020
    First pediatric coronavirus case reported in Gloucester Co.
    The first case of coronavirus has been reported in the Three Rivers Health District, the Virginia Department of Health announced.

    The patient is under the age of 10 years old and tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19). ….The patient, a child under ten was seen at a pediatric medical practice in Gloucester. The child is at home with family recovering.

  4. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    Public fear, panic, and irresponsibility, some of it driven by irresponsible press and/or wild misinformation on net coming from many sources, including press, is my greatest concern. If we can defeat that despicable conduct, I suspect we may well beat this virus sooner rather than later, given what I consider a great government, private business, and even Congressional response and attitude to date, save for Shumer. Lets hope that alliance holds.

  5. Policy Student Avatar
    Policy Student

    This site (by a savvy high school student) includes data on recoveries. I couldn’t find data definitions, however. https://ncov2019.live/data

  6. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    Here in NoVA as of today, we have evidence of “community spread”:

    “As of March 19, 2020, public health officials have noted evidence of community transmission of the COVID-19 coronavirus in parts of Northern Virginia. Community transmission, or “community spread,” is defined by the Centers for Disease Control as a “spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown.”

Leave a Reply

Read More