Bacon's Rebellion

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COVID-19 Update: Hospitalizations Are Leveling Off

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by

James A. Bacon
in

According to this morning’s data dump (unadjusted for vagaries in reporting), 63 patients with COVID-19 were admitted to Virginia hospitals yesterday while 62 were discharged. Meanwhile the number of patients in ICUs and on ventilators continued their long-term decline — further evidence that Governor Ralph Northam did the right thing yesterday when he announced that he would not extend the ban on elective procedures.

Total COVID-19 patients hospitalized — 1,566, down 16
COVID patients in ICUs — 372, down 15
COVID patients on ventilators — 208, down 14
Number of hospitals experiencing difficulty replenishing PPEs — 2

In other newsworthy developments, the number of test results reported reached 5,536 yesterday, a record number for Virginia and halfway to the Governor’s 10,000-test benchmark Virginia must meet before he begins reversing other emergency shutdown measures. Among the five criteria listed in the Governor’s Blueprint for easing public health restrictions is that the percentage of positive tests must show a downward trend over 14 days. It’s not clear, however, what that means.

If the criteria is interpreted to mean a downward trend over 14 consecutive days, it will be impossible to meet. The percentage is highly volatile, fluctuating from a recent low of 13.9% three days ago to a high of 39.5% nine days ago. We’ll never see 14 consecutive days of lower percentages each day.

Alternatively, if we interpret the criteria to mean a lower percentage at the end of the 14-day period than the beginning of the 14-day period, then we met it today it  today — 16.0% positive versus versus 16.9% on April 17. I doubt that’s what the Governor is thinking. What is the correction interpretation of this rule? We’ll have to wait and see. Presumably, the Governor’s CVOID-19 working group will think this through.

Here’s John Butcher’s presentation of the total hospitalized cases:

— JAB

 

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13 responses to “COVID-19 Update: Hospitalizations Are Leveling Off”

  1. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    Fairfax Co. Health Dept. says in a recently posted FAQ “Virginia law require us to preserve the anonymity of communicable disease patients, and we have determined that this (not giving specific zipcode granularity of the data) is the best method for doing so. See Va. Code § 32.1-41. In addition, releasing information by zip code does not offer a significant public health benefit”

    Presumably we residents would at least like to know some summary of why residents are getting COVID and why is it increasing? Grocery shopping? Being in contact with other cases of close friends/relatives? Here is that FAQ answer:
    “We are currently in the acceleration phase of our epidemic curve so that means that we can expect COVID-19 cases in our health district to continue to increase.”

  2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    “Only 17 states across the United States have managed to limit the spread of coronavirus, according to a new interactive tool that tracks the rate of secondary infections of COVID-19.

    Pennsylvania, Virginia and Vermont have had the most success in reducing the spread, the Rt.Live charts show.

    The data indicates that all seven states that currently have no stay-at-home orders – Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming – are among the states with the higher rates of secondary infections.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249973/States-fastest-spreading-COVID-19-cases-Data.html

    So let’s stop doing what is working and try something else!

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      This is an important point and one that has not been reported here and needs emphasizing: Virginia is one of the best states in the nation at reducing the spread of COVID-19. It seems to me that the Governor should be given at least some credit for that.

      By the way, Nancy–it is hard to find that chart in the link you provided. There is such a jumble of data.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        Try “Rt Live” in a Google search. They updated. It’s clearly a Q&D website, they provide some hand waving as to what they do, offer a download of their model, and cite the work of two others as their starting point.

        I must really review their creds if not any description of their work, but they point to themselves on twitter, and I’d rather drive “twitting needles ” in my eyes than open a twitter account.

        Shoulda looked. They founded instagram. They can afford to buy good work.

      2. djrippert Avatar
        djrippert

        Nobody has any idea whether Virginia has contained the spread of COVID19 given our miserable level of testing. The only semi-accurate statistic in Virginia is deaths per capita from COVID19. Virginia is 23rd. If any politician deserves credit for COVID19 abatement it’s Thomas Jefferson. He so detested cities that his state has been unable to create one.

        https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

        1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
          Dick Hall-Sizemore

          Another good reason not to encourage the growth of large, dense cities in Virginia.

          1. TBill Avatar
            TBill

            On the other hand, if you look at carbon emissions per capita, New York City appears to have very very low carbon emissions.

  3. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The major development from DOC is the report of a third inmate death from COVID-19. This was an inmate from Sussex II State Prison, who had been in a hospital for a long time.
    Overall the number of positive cases increased by 21 from the previous day. This increase was driven by by an additional 22 positive cases in Dillwyn. More than likely, this increase was the result of continued receipt of results from the testing of all the inmates in that facility.

    Summary of COVID-19 Cases in Va. Dept. of Corrections
    As of 5:00 p.m., April 29

    Cumulative testing positive 479
    Total Deaths 3
    Active positive cases in facilities 403
    Number in hospital 10
    Recovered 63
    Staff currently tested positive 65

  4. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    Dick reports:
    “Cumulative testing positive 479
    Total Deaths 3
    Active positive cases in facilities 403
    Number in hospital 10
    Recovered 63
    Staff currently tested positive 65”

    NOTE high positive testing / active cases, in 400s yet only 10 patients in hospital. Likely this is key to understanding future of virus threat.

  5. Acbar Avatar
    Acbar

    Too early to jump to Jim’s conclusion. A single day’s drop can always be just “noise” in the data. But even if it isn’t, that begs the question whether ANY loosening of the restrictions right away, or to what extent, is called for.

    1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
      Reed Fawell 3rd

      Come on, Acbar! Loosen up Baby,
      Time to get ya outta da basement,
      Let’s us go Party!
      Do it at in Louie-ville Town at Da Downs,
      Here we go!
      Dem snags is off to the races!
      See:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fn8MxJx_erk&feature=youtu.be

      1. Lift Avatar
        Lift

        Reed, that one is internet gold, isn’t it?

        Don’t overlook biggest one-day spike in new cases reported yesterday, 885. Spike in hospital admissions in a week or so?

        Jim’s point about the unlikelihood of 14 consecutive days of downward trend of any of these data points is same point I was trying to make the other day in “Pick Your Data to Suit Your Narrative;” not sure that the ideals/goals preferred by public health experts are practicable from here forward. Are we ready to live with the consequences of compromise? My take is that there is no such thing as public perception of success in a pandemic, therefore there is an inherent tendency to view leaders (politicians, scientists, medical staff) as failed. Let’s relieve the pressure on them by working through a compromise between pure quarantine and fully functioning society.

        1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
          Reed Fawell 3rd

          Yes, I agree Lift.

          We gotta get out of the house. If we don’t, we collectively end up like this poor soul hiding in closet from her husband, after seeing too many of Bacon’s Horror Charts day after day with no end in sight, The Horror:

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfZGChWE8pI

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