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COVID-19 Update: Hospitalization Signs Stable

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James A. Bacon
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by James A. Bacon

Hospitalization of patients testing positive for COVID-19 continues to creep higher in Virginia, though not at the scarily rapid rate of earlier in the month. Social distancing measures, both those imposed and those voluntarily embraced by the population, are slowing the spread of the virus.

The plague is still spreading by this measure — 870 confirmed cases yesterday, up from 854 the previous day — but we’re close enough to a peak that Virginia hospitals are no longer worried about Italy-style scenarios being replicated here. (The VHHA also reports the number of hospitalized patients who are being tested for the virus, which stands at 495 in today’s data update. But I have not been tracking that number, so I cannot say how fast it has been rising.)

Even the widely reported shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) seems to be easing. At one point, the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association dashboard indicated that 11 hospitals in the state expected to have difficulty obtaining the equipment within the next 72 hours. That number now is down to three.

Other metrics from today’s VHHA report:

  • COVID-19 patients in ICUs: 419 yesterday
  • COVID-19 patients on ventilators: 244
    Total beds available: 5,519

The total number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals is only one measure for hospital usage. It is also useful to track the number of ICU beds in use and the number of patients on ventilators as measures of patients with severe symptoms. Here’s what those metrics look like:

By these measures, resource-intensive treatment of COVID-19 patients is either flat or declining slightly.

Note: I have presented no Virginia Department of Health data today because the VDH has not yet updated its coronavirus website.

Update: And here is John Butcher’s fitted curve for confirmed new cases (based on Virginia Department of Health data, for whatever that is worth):

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6 responses to “COVID-19 Update: Hospitalization Signs Stable”

  1. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    One must pay such close attention….so, you are tracking the VHHA’s “confirmed” COVID-19 daily patient count, but not the additional patients who are presumed to have it but are awaiting a test, or who are simply being treated on the basis of a clinical diagnosis. Once the patient is showing all the symptoms, the test is just for curiosity. I’d been watching the total patient count, confirmed and suspected.

    Now we learn today that in California, some February deaths were checked (on retained tissue samples) and voila, they found COVID in the tissues. There were U.S. deaths not tracked weeks and weeks before the first “known” death. Maybe those weren’t the first.

    Bottom line: Just one wild ass guess after another.

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      Yes! Symptoms. A most important item in diagnosis.

    2. cjbova Avatar
      cjbova

      If you don’t add the number discharged, you don’t have the total number of new hospitalizations. There were 79 discharges in today’s VHHA report, so the number of new patients admitted with positive tests is 25 above the day before+79 to replace those discharged. For tested plus increase in hospitalized with pending test results, it’s another 18. So there’s either 104 or 122 new hospital admissions, not 25.

      If discharges don’t equal or exceed new admissions, how have we reached a plateau or decline? We had three days since April 13 where discharges exceeded new admissions by a total of 14 if you look at tested, and 3 days with a total of 53 if you count tested and pending. (They weren’t the most recent and weren’t consecutive.)

      The unknown is how many discharges were deaths, and how many deaths were not hospitalized cases?

  2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The data from DOC shows improvement–149 active cases versus 147 in yesterday’s report and hospitalizations down by one, from 9 to 8.

    1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
      Reed Fawell 3rd

      Given there is far more control here, perhaps these DOC numbers are far more telling, and useful. Thanks for updates.

  3. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    According to WTOP, on hold now are the prior plans to open supplemental temporary hospital bed centers (eg; Dulles Expo Center and other sites).

    Interesting side note from yesterday’s news: Germany’s 2020 Oktoberfest has been cancelled.
    https://www.oktoberfest.de/en

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