The number of COVID-19-related deaths reported to the Virginia Department of Health has been falling the last week. (The May 7 spike you see in the chart above represents two days’ of deaths due to a glitch in the VDH system. The average for May 6 and 7 combined was 28 deaths.) The last four days have seen sharply declining mortality — to eleven reported this morning. These numbers are volatile, so we are likely to see worse days, but we can cross our fingers and hope the trend-line stays down.
Meanwhile, several other metrics are looking favorable for relaxation of Governor Ralph Northam’s emergency shutdown decrees. The Governor’s Blueprint has identified two key metrics (besides hospital capacity) that he is following. The first is a minimum of 10,000 tests daily; the second is a decline in the percentage of positive tests.
Daily COVID-19 tests: 9,479
Percentage of positive tests: 10.4%
As I have noted in previous posts, the 10,000 minimum daily COVID-19 tests appears to be arbitrary and lacking in scientific or statistical justification. The Northam administration has provided no public explanation of why that particular number of tests is needed in order to accurately gauge the spread of the virus.
Likewise, the second metric is useless as a metric. The fact that the percentage of positive tests is heading down reflects the changing source of the tests — from public labs and hospitals focusing only patients already in hospitals to a much broader cross-section of the population.
Whatever…. Anything that allows the Governor to justify in his own mind a decision to lighten the restrictions strangling Virginia’s economy is worthwhile.
— JAB