Bacon's Rebellion

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COVID-19 Update: Deaths Soar

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Nationally, the experts are saying that the COVID-19 virus shows indications of leveling off. There may be signs of the same here in Virginia, but they are subtle. The latest numbers from the Virginia Department of Health and the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association show a steady increase in the number of confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths — 34 deaths yesterday, to be precise, bringing the total to 109. If I reckon correctly, that is the biggest one-day death toll in Virginia to date.

Fortunately, there is no evidence yet that hospitals are being overwhelmed from a lack of ICU beds or ventilators — the number of COVID-19 patients in ICUs edged up nine to 469, while the number of patients on ventilators actually declined to 285. Even the number of hospitals experiencing shortages of personal protective equipment declined from 11 two days ago to only seven yesterday.

Total COVID-19 cases: 4,042, up 397 from the previous day
Total hospitalizations: 685, up 70 from the previous day
ICUs in use: 469, up 11
Ventilators in use: 285, down eight
Total deaths: 109, up 34
Total tests: 33,026, up 2,381
% tests positive: 16.7%

Doubling data. John Butcher has adopted a new method for determining the “doubling” rate for key metrics. Previously, he had calculated the rate based on the numbers he had been compiling from the beginning. The result was a stable number that changed only incrementally. Now he has moved to a dynamic number based on the past four days of data.

Case count: 6.3 days
Hospitalizations: 6.6 days
Deaths: 3.0 days

By this reckoning, the spread of the virus is substantial, but it’s not nearly as out of control as implied by the previous methodology.

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28 responses to “COVID-19 Update: Deaths Soar”

  1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    Hint to Jim Bacon:

    Virginia numbers not reliable, and intentionally so.

    Second hint to Jim Bacon:

    Why? The Virginia Way is the Chinese Way.

  2. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I think one of the things we are finding out is that this obsession with the numbers and the modelling is a bit misguided. They are really not reliable to the degree we are assuming.

    They do not do much more than a rough estimate of how things are going and the one thing they are NOT showing is what happens if we stop our social distancing prematurely and the virus rebounds.

    That’s the big problem. People are looking at the numbers and waiting for the down slope on the graphs… and the graphs right now end at the bottom – but in the real world – if there is a rebound – it might look more like this:

    https://www.graphpad.com/guides/prism/7/curve-fitting/images/reg_clip0032.png

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      Here a better pic
      http://jwilson.coe.uga.edu/EMAT6680Fa06/Kitchings/WU%2010/Kitchings%20WU%2010_files/image004.png

      1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
        Reed Fawell 3rd

        This is perfect example. No intent here to advance any serious discussion, or even engage in one. The sole intent here is to screw up, obstruct, obscure, and cloud over, any serious discussion by other people. This is toxic behavior, disrespect of other people who are serious, where the culprit apparently around here pays no price at all.

        1. generally_speaking Avatar
          generally_speaking

          Then what is this?

          “Virginia numbers not reliable, and intentionally so. Second hint to Jim Bacon: Why? The Virginia Way is the Chinese Way.”

      2. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        closer – but each cycle has a lower peak … and gradually reduces lower and lower.

        1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
          Reed Fawell 3rd

          Here is more of the same toxic childlike behavior meant the encourage it among others.

          1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Who are you replying to? Okay, you’re acknowledged.

        2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Yeah, but a search for “an exponentially attenuated absolute value of a sine wave” was fruitless.

          1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
            Reed Fawell 3rd

            Here is yet another example of text whose sole intent here is to screw up, obstruct, obscure, and cloud over, any serious discussion by other people.

          2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Only to the I’ll-informed or the lazy.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            correct! but we do know it when we see it! 😉

            have you noticed that some folks are in pain about your posts?

            😉

  3. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Ignore the line below 0, look at the wave above 0, and I agree. Can’t have fewer than 0 cases.. 😉

    1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
      Reed Fawell 3rd

      Yes.

      Plus they can’t get death numbers right either. Only in Virginia might one suspect its intentional, given obstinate refusal to test Virginians, or make any real effort at all. Want to blame it all on the Feds and systemic racism and lack of booze, instead. You know get votes, and money for next election instead. Remember money and power is their game, all they care about.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      it was a quick/dirty chart – the point was to show the cycle that we are likely to see if we do not continue social distancing… and go back to work and drop some of it. This is not me. This is what scientists are saying.

      We ignore this at our own peril and it’s a wakadoo world when pointing
      this reality out – is a partisan thing.

      1. Steve Haner Avatar
        Steve Haner

        I moved a planned trip from June to October. I’m VERY sensitive to the possibility of a fall rebound….seems very likely.

        1. TBill Avatar
          TBill

          Yes we really need some big changes in testing or treatment breakthrus if life is going to get back to normal by Fall. My community activity has many over 65, it’s hard to see getting back to normal.

          China is following cases like a pit bull to track those sick and put a squash on people they got close to. Even if you sat on a plane near a person they know it. We would not tolerate that privacy invasion. So even if we had testing, it would be private matter for many.

        2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          I’m hoping that by then U. of Pitt will have some sort of approval for their vaccine.

          Not because theirs might be the best, but because of their really cool delivery system. It’s a small plastic patch with 100s of little plastic needles that deliver the vaccine subcutaneously. Think small pox vaccination only with all the pricks happening continuously over a period of time.

          1. TBill Avatar
            TBill

            Think Jonas Salk from Pitt no less

  4. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    There is this narrative that when govt says it’s okay to suspend restrictions that we are “open up again” and so there is pressure from people to do this.

    I would submit that no matter what the govt does – if the news reports their is still widespread contagion – that really bad stuff will happen.

    Like who is going to go on a cruise boat now even if the govt loosens restrictions? Yep… folks are going to go to those “fake news” news sites and if they see reports of contagion – that’s going to be it – no matter what govt says.

  5. S. E. Warwick Avatar
    S. E. Warwick

    VHHA numbers are down a bit since yesterday. Agree, the numbers are confusing at best. Different deadlines for reporting by different agencies who compile data adding to the fog

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Yes, and even more reason to trim expectations from the data… it’s just not the absolute truth that people are expecting.

  6. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    The window for the use of testing to “flatten the curve”, based on SouKorea’s results, slammed shut just about the time Trump tweeted, “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. … we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it.” — (Jan 29)

    That was 1 week after the first US transmitted case, exactly the amount of time it took South Korea to begin wide-spread testing after their 1st case.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      We can still “backfit” universal testing – it’s just going to be a harder thing to do , more expensive and more time-consuming.. and ultimately we may be
      forced to do it anyhow we have to get back to some kind of economic normalcy.

      People are mad and frustrated and who can blame anyone but this is not the time to go stupid.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        True, but as always the danger is extrapolation

  7. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Here is an update on DOC numbers:
    21 total inmates tested positive, 5 in hospital
    21 staff tested positive

    The total number of inmates testing positive increased by 1. However, the number in the hospital increased from 2 to 5
    Distribution:
    Sussex II–3, 2 in hospital
    VCCW (female, Goochland)–12, 3 in hospital
    Unit 13 (female, Chesterfield)–6

    The good news is that the virus is still confined to three facilities.

    The inevitable law suit has been filed. It was filed in federal court on behalf of 27 inmates alleging violation of 8th Amendment Rights, because the system is not able to provide the recommended social distancing. It asks that the Governor be required to release all non-violent offenders.

    Even if the Governor wanted to release offenders from prison, he would probably be prohibited from doing so by a recent state supreme court decision. In that decision, dealing with McAuliffe’s effort to re-instate voting rights en masse to convicted felons, the court said that the governor could not exercise his clemency powers in such a broad fashion, Rather, he had to give individual consideration to each case. https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/aclu-launches-television-ads-urging-inmate-releases-in-light-of-covid-19/article_a767265a-a6e0-5ab8-8897-9af68bc41e15.html

    The national ACLU has come out with TV ads calling on officials to release offenders in jails and prisons due to their vulnerability to covid-19. One of the target markets is Richmond. https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/aclu-launches-television-ads-urging-inmate-releases-in-light-of-covid-19/article_a767265a-a6e0-5ab8-8897-9af68bc41e15.html

  8. Jim Loving Avatar
    Jim Loving

    The Washington Post now has an app, based on work done by Jeremy Kahn, an ICU researcher at the University of Pittsburgh, who studies critical-care resources in U.S. hospitals. Enter zip code, and determine availability of Beds, ICU beds, and ventilators.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-hospitals-data/?itid=hp_hp-banner-main_virussystems-1050am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans#interactive

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Thanks Jim! I wonder if there is an APP for the Abbot tests?

      😉

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