Bacon's Rebellion

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COVID-19 Update: Big Move in Nursing Home Deaths

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by

James A. Bacon
in

From today’s data updates…

Confirmed COVID-19 cases: 555
New hospitalizations: 53
Deaths: 16
Deaths in long-term care facilities: 55

Wait, what? How can the Virginia Department of Health report 16 news deaths overall but 55 in long-term care facilities? It appears that VDH is revising the way it reports and classifies its numbers. Whatever the reason, the total number of nursing home deaths hit the 1,000 mark yesterday. That’s out of 1,602 deaths total. The revision — adding 95 deaths to the nursing-home toll in the past two days — bumps up the percentage of total deaths associated with long-term care facilities to 62%.

Repeat after me: The COVID-19 epidemic in Virginia is largely a nursing-home epidemic.

Wise King Ralph has indicated that he will move Virginia to Phase 3 of his lockdown as early as next week, depending on…. well, that’s not entirely clear. He has indicated that he has added a new criterion: what’s happening in neighboring states. So, we’ll just have to wait and see.

— JAB

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26 responses to “COVID-19 Update: Big Move in Nursing Home Deaths”

  1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Hey Jim,

    Did anyone ever determine the number of persons, who died in nursing homes, transferred from hospitals after treatment for COV2?

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      Important question.

    2. TBill Avatar
      TBill

      I saw partial data a week or so back for NoVA and many of the COVID nursing home cases were moved to the nursing homes from the hospitals. I see if I can find, but I believe there is partial data. I have already made the point here in a prior comment. Partial data because not all nursing homes data are reported, but enough to see the trend.

      1. TBill Avatar
        TBill

        This might be the article I saw. In general InsideNoVA.com (whatever that is) has had good articles on COVID data.

        https://www.insidenova.com/headlines/first-detailed-data-released-on-northern-virginia-nursing-homes-with-covid-19-cases/article_8261d672-a695-11ea-8634-dffcab275fb9.html

        Some of these are places I visit frequently to provide music to the residents, so I like to follow it. When we can ever do that again, who knows?

    3. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      I have not seen that data anywhere.

  2. sbostian Avatar
    sbostian

    Jim,
    As you know, I have been complaining about the way VDH reported nursing home deaths for months. From the beginning in late March, it seemed clear that there was a serious nursing home problem, mirroring the ones in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and other states. Yet, the public was not privy to the nursing home COVID 19 statistics. Almost everyone here bent over backward to give Northam and VDH a benefit of the doubt – even retreating to “incompetence and ineptitude” excuses when state reporting was clearly indefensible.

    I do not speak to Northam or VDH officials, so I can only guess at their intent. Nonetheless, it is hard for me to find wholesome motives for what appears to be deliberate misreporting of nursing home COVID 19 deaths (VDH had the information from the beginning and chose not to break it out accurately). The only two motivations that I can imagine are 1) an attempt to cover up appallingly lax state supervision of nursing homes or 2) It served King Ralph’s purposes to create a “we are all equally at risk” hysteria to justify his ascent to Mount Olympus to begin his royal reign, and to extend it for as long as possible. Perhaps others here have different ideas and I would like to hear them. However, incompetence and ineptitude don’t do it for me any more.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      For all the Richmond elitists’ rhetorical incontinence about how badly Maryland is run it is, in many ways, much better run than Virginia. The collection and publication of COVID19 cases, deaths, etc by specific nursing home is just a recent example.

      If Virginia is to continue to be a high tax snowflake state under Democratic control we should at least demand competence from government for the ever increasing share of our incomes that government wants to take.

      1. TBill Avatar
        TBill

        I think I like it!
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowflake_(slang)
        …new one on me.

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Ironic too… especially when being used in a “talked down to”, no?

  3. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Around the US and the world – about half the deaths are in long term care facilities. Virginia is really no different.

    what’s the real problem?

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      The problem is they cannot count. How do we base decisions on data when we do not trust the data?

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        How can people make decisions when they do not understand the data nor the science they reject?

        1. MAdams Avatar
          MAdams

          To understand data context, details and transparency is required. Data like that isn’t “science” it’s math.

        2. sbostian Avatar
          sbostian

          Larry,
          Based on posts here it seems that you understand the science less than many here. When confronted with data or scientific opinions that don’t confirm your biases you retreat to your “99% of scientists and governments agree” argument – which you never try to substantiate or your assertion that Northam is only trying to keep us safe. By the way was there a clause in his oath of office to the effect that “I vow to take as many of your rights away as I deem necessary to keep you safe”. If so, I missed that at his inauguration.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            sbostian, it’s not “retreating” to point out that most of scientific opinion is what it is.

            Most people who wear masks or social distance are doing so based on what science is recommending.

            Most Governors – GOP and Dem – are basing their rules on what science is saying.

            Northam, by and large, is not that different than Cuomo or Hogan or DeSantis.

            All of them are laying out restrictions and rules based on scientific opinion.

            I don’t know any states that are laying out restrictions just based on arbitrary opinions…

            The latest FOX NEWs Poll shows this:

            https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/1862/1048/a0dac0ed-Fox-News-Poll-Story-6-19-20-1.png?ve=1&tl=1

            What does that mean?

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/1862/1048/d89b1e85-Fox-News-Poll-Story-6-19-20-3.png?ve=1&tl=1

      2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        There are three types of people. Those that cannot count, and those that cannot add.

  4. S. E. Warwick Avatar
    S. E. Warwick

    Using data released today, which reflects the situation who knows when, 1,042 out of an alleged 1,602 total Covid deaths are attributable to “outbreaks” in the entire state since March. The alleged overall Covid death toll rose by 16 from yesterday, yet 57 “new” deaths were reported from outbreaks. Is the actual total death toll for the entire state since March 1,602, or 1,602 plus 1,042? Is VDH cooking the books, incompetent or a little of both?

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      “data” is flying all over the place. Different kinds in different time frames and it’s coming to VDH in a firehouse and they’re just struggling with it.

      Never before has there been such an intense focus on this part of what they do and never before had they had this much data and different classes of data.

      Even the CDC has been accused of having data “issues”.

      I don’t excuse it nor defend it. it is what it is. People are expecting more than they are giving.

      If you look across the other states, there are similar issues. Some states actually do appear to be suppressing numbers… Some countries are suppressing and misrepresenting numbers.

      And there is disagreement even among professionals as to what data means or not.

      It’s up to people to use their own intelligence to compensate for the variations …. just relentlessly blaming won’t get much satisfaction.

      1. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        “It’s up to people to use their own intelligence to compensate for the variations ….”

        Do what, now? Are you implying you (or others) are “intelligent” enough to generate accurate data from inaccurate data? How would that work?

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          I’m saying there is a LOT of data and viewpoints.. and one has to take the time to work through different sources.. and do a little fact checking when there is disagreement..

          don’t rely on one source and be wary of sources that tend to satisfy your own biases.

          don’t go looking only to sources you like – to confirm your biases..

          1. WayneS Avatar
            WayneS

            Pot meet kettle; kettle, pot.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            was not directed at you personally.. just a general idea that I try to follow but am never perfect at.

    2. cjbova Avatar
      cjbova

      S.E. Warwick: Their total is the 1602. VDH has been reassigning numbers from the overall counts and from one outbreak category to another as they figure them out.

  5. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    Here is a late breaking InsideNoVA.com article on this topic.
    I am posting this quickly for BR readers…I will comment later if I have any…looks like some good info in there, though.

    https://www.insidenova.com/headlines/two-thirds-of-regions-covid-19-deaths-have-occurred-in-long-term-care-facilities/article_630bf5f6-b260-11ea-9f4d-4b58e8891e9e.html?utm_source=izooto&utm_medium=push_notifications&utm_campaign=COVID%20Nursing%20home%20data&utm_content=&utm_term=

    1. TBill Avatar
      TBill

      So the most interesting finding for me, the several nursing homes near my house had quite a heavy impact. So my ZipCode’s case load is almost 50% due to the nursing homes, maybe more (not all of them are listed yet). We had heard the nearby nursing homes had cases, but the magnitude was unclear.

      The above article from today has less info about the possibility that COVID patients were transferred there fro the hospitals.

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