Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

COVID-19 Update: A Glimmer of Hope

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by

James A. Bacon
in

The latest numbers from the Virginia Department of Health are heartening. The COVID-19 epidemic in Virginia has not peaked, or come anywhere near peaking. But maybe, just maybe, the rate of acceleration is slowing. Another way to put it: It may take a bit longer than we thought for things to go all to hell.

First, let’s recapitulate today’s new numbers, published today based on yesterday’s data collection:

Total COVID-19 cases: 2,878, up 241 from the previous day
Total hospitalizations: 487, up 66 from the previous day
Total deaths: 54, up three
Total tests: 25,521, up 884
% tests positive: 27.3%

Doubling rates for key metrics (thank you, John Butcher):

Case count: 3.5 days
Hospitalizations: 3.7 days
Deaths: 4.6 days

The best news is that the number of deaths in Virginia so far (emphasis on so far) has been almost trivial compared to (a) the normal number of influenza deaths in the state and (b) the number of deaths in New York City, a municipality with roughly the same population as the state of Virginia, which now stands at 3,048. We have a long, long way to go before it gets Big Apple bad.

When John began calculating the doubling rate for key metrics (and I first published the numbers March 29), the numbers were scary: Cases doubling every 3.1 days, hospitalizations every 3.7 days, and deaths every 2.6 days. Hospitalizations are still following the same trajectory, but the rate for new cases has stretched out to 3.5 days and deaths to 4.6 days.

Now for the no-so-good news. It’s hard to know what weight to give today’s numbers. The number of tests fell to a mere 884 — down precipitously from the 2,085 tests administered the previous day and a peak of 2.547 test two days previously. The low level of testing could have biased the results for confirmed cases?

What the heck is going on? On the national level, the volume of testing is increasingly rapidly. What caused such a reversal in Virginia? Hopefully, the number is an anomaly, not a sign of dysfunction in Virginia’s fight against the virus.

— JAB

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22 responses to “COVID-19 Update: A Glimmer of Hope”

  1. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    If it turns out warmer weather is a major factor, I guess the media will stop attacking Trump by replaying his early comment about “at some point it might go away.” But too soon to get our hopes up, way too soon. I don’t trust the data to be up to date.

    And if hydroxychloroquine really works, families of the dead should sue all the MSM outlets into non-existence. The following was sent to me by my favorite medical professional, without endorsement but with news the report itself has “gone viral.” If she didn’t think it credible (with her two masters and now almost 20 years of experience) she wouldn’t have forwarded. Read it.

    http://web.archive.org/web/20200405061401/https://medium.com/@agaiziunas/covid-19-had-us-all-fooled-but-now-we-might-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb

    Did the consensus that hydroxychloroquine was useless ever reach the magic 97% level?

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      Warmer weather? Like in Florida or NoLa? Or, the South American countries?
      What if the drug does nothing, can I sue for malpractice?

      1. Steve Haner Avatar
        Steve Haner

        I said if in both cases. But other flu strains are seasonal and this could be too.

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Not a flu, but I get your point. Strains, aye there’s the rub. What may come?

  2. sbostian Avatar
    sbostian

    Jim,
    You have much more experience with Richmond politics and how the administrative apparatus functions here than I do. Do you have an idea of why VDH never reports cases and deaths attributable to nursing homes and other longterm care facilities? We only get sporadic media snips about one or another facility. Knowing the vulnerability of the aged and extremely ill, why are not all residents and staff at these facilities among the first to be tested? In Henrico county before today’s update in excess of 115 of the county’s cases were attributable to two such facilities.

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      I’m sure they know, but doubt they are releasing it. They’ve tested Canterbury heavily now, and what they found was (ouch) a bunch of asymptomatic positives.

      1. sbostian Avatar
        sbostian

        I’m sure they know, but cannot think of a wholesome reason to keep it out of public disclosures. The only reason I can think of is that Northam wants to perpetuate the “everyone is at equal risk” meme to justify his shutdown of much of the state.

    2. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      I can’t speak for the VDH policy for posting information, but surely the extreme concentration of deaths in a single long-term care facility would warrant further discussion. Should we be shutting down half the economy…. or focusing our public health efforts on long-term care facilities?

      1. sbostian Avatar
        sbostian

        My point exactly. Competent statisticians would ask those questions and failing to get answers would urge caution in interpreting model results.

  3. T. Boyd Avatar
    T. Boyd

    Good news, maybe, about the slowing. However my wife and I have noticed a weekend effect of lower reports of total cases and deaths for about the last 3 weekends. And I am not sure that those are ever completed added to the reports. So I don’t trust Monday’s report as well as those of Saturdays and Sundays. I am still updating and changing my models frequently to keep up with the trends nationally and for Virginia: https://drive.google.com/open?id=10OY1JEmcveRg5SE0gwZ33YBbNc9xqCzm

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Good observation about the “weekend effect” on VDH data. If that’s a factor, we could see a really big jump in tomorrow’s numbers.

      Readers should take a look at your data displays. Here’s one I found to be helpful (and hopeful):

      https://www.baconsrebellion.com/app/uploads/2020/04/boyd-data.jpg

    2. cjbova Avatar
      cjbova

      T. Boyd– makes sense to see weekend drops. Did you notice the VDH page says now “This page is updated daily before 10 AM. Numbers are preliminary and close out at 5 PM the day before posting. Case counts reflect what has been reported to VDH by healthcare providers and laboratories.”

      So if any of them don’t work on the weekend, VDH doesn’t get their numbers until Monday, and they’d be reported Tuesday.

    3. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      In case you didn’t notice, there are dips on Thursdays too. Wednesday night bowling?

  4. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    The numbers are being sourced from different places and still not sure if there is a uniform reporting process…

    The other thing, Fauci and others are warning that this thing could well cycle and reappear after we re-emerge once we get to the other side of this cycle.

    We’ll know that this is happening by looking at other countries that are ahead of us in the numbers reducing…

    1. sbostian Avatar
      sbostian

      Larry,
      If you look at Faui’s public pronouncements (all supposedly scientific statements) you might not have such confidence in his statements.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Isn’t Fauci’s statements fairly consistent with the other scientists?

        1. sbostian Avatar
          sbostian

          There are plenty of scientist who disagree with Fauci, you choose not pay attention to them regardless of their credentials. Look below for Fauci’s and CDC’s statements in January:
          In a Jan. 23 Journal of the American Medical Association podcast, Dr. Fauci repeatedly downplayed the virus’ potential impact on the U.S., noting that all five cases here were travelers from China. He also noted that due to limited testing in China, the number of infections was likely much higher than official counts, meaning that the death rate of the virus was likely much lower than feared.

          Asked whether the U.S. might contemplate city-wide shutdowns like those China was enacting at the time, Fauci replied, “There’s no chance in the world that we could do that to Chicago or to New York or to San Francisco, but they’re doing it. So, let’s see what happens.”

          Most importantly, he added that it was still quite possible the Chinese could get control of the outbreak and prevent it from becoming a global issue, and that even if there were more cases in the U.S., “the CDC, as usual, is on top of things.”

          A day later, Dr. David Heymann, the former head of WHO’s response to SARS, offered that, unlike SARS, the coronavirus “looks like it doesn’t transmit through the air very easily and probably transmits through close contact,” in contrast with recent guidance that it can spread simply through breathing.

          The same day, Fauci emphasized that other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS could not sustain person-to-person spread like the flu and that such viruses “maybe never will.” For its part, WHO noted that no person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 had been reported outside of China and that all of the deaths had been limited to that country.

          Fauci also took care to praise the Chinese government for “being quite transparent” and said he was “impressed” with officials’ cooperation.

          For its part, the CDC issued a press release on Jan. 24 asserting that “the immediate risk of this new virus to the American public is believed to be low” and instead asking that the public refrain from traveling to China and focus on the seasonal flu rather than the minimal risk of the coronavirus.

          At a congressional briefing that same day, in response to multiple questions about whether the CDC needed additional funding to combat the disease, Director Robert Redfield reassured senators that it had all of the funds it needed.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            The basics about social-distancing is pretty consistent among most scientists and the vast majority of elected of Congress, Govs, and state general assemblies, local govt – pretty much across the board do believe what the scientists are saying and they are implementing it.

            I hear that they have had to beef up security for Fauci – he’s getting threats from those who say he is part of the “deep state” and trying to undermine Trump….

            Fauci and other scientists HAVE shifted their views as things have played out as they have learned more about things how the mode of transmission and people who are infected but asymptomatic.

            But again in terms of social distancing – there appears to be great unanimity… stay apart…do not congreate, etc…

            I’m not even sure what some of the disagreements are with respect to..

  5. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    When Fairfax County cases were below 20, they gave us explanation of why they were getting it…Nile river cruises etc.

    Now its a secret who, why, and where the people are getting it. Not even a management summary.

    1. sbostian Avatar
      sbostian

      Makes me suspicious! But then again I was trained to be a skeptic.

  6. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    This is a war, right? The first casualty of war is truth. Not an insight I reached, but history bears it out.

  7. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    New inputs to the IHME model apparently changing projections. Lower deaths including in Virginia. Peak sooner.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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