County Speak with Forked Tongue

tonto
Where is Tonto when you really need him?

by James A. Bacon

To justify a proposed 4% meals tax, Henrico County officials have repeatedly invoked the fact that county government has cut $115 million from its budget (set at $785 million this fiscal year), and it just can’t cut no more.

The county’s meals-tax advocacy website, Henrico County Meals Tax, frames the issue this way:

Over the past four years, Henrico has cut $115 million and 646 positions from its budget – balancing it without raising the real estate tax rate, making significant service reductions or laying off employees.

Even though I oppose the meals tax, I’ve always been impressed by that fact — $115 million in spending cuts! Gosh, I thought, even if you don’t like the meals tax, you really do have to give county leadership credit for all those cuts. Henrico must be one lean, mean organization!

Of course, that’s precisely what the meals tax backers would like Henrico citizens to think. But foolish me. As I dug into the numbers, I found that the county has not cut “spending” by $115 million. It has cut $115 million “from its budget,” which is a very different thing. If the county budgeted a spending increase one year but rolled the increase back to zero, it’s counting that as a “cut from its budget.”

Actual county spending peaked at $790.7 million in Fiscal 2009, according to the 2012 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR). Actual spending in Fiscal 2012 fell to $768.9 million. According to my calculator, that’s a real-world spending cut of $21.8 million…. not exactly the $115 million the county website trumpets.

How about those 646 positions? County payroll stood at a 10,587 in 2009. In 2012 head count had fallen to 10,491. Again, my calculator tells me that’s a cut of 91 employees…. less than one percent of the county workforce, and only a fraction of the number county officials are citing.

(Important caveat: Spending for the FY 2013 just ended was originally budgeted for $765.7 million, about $3 million less than the year before, and it’s possible that actual expenditures came in below that figure due to board actions and administrative measures. Unfortunately, the 2013 CAFR has not been published yet so it is impossible to compare apples to apples. Still, while it is possible that marginal reductions in spending and head count occurred in FY 2013, those cuts would close only a tiny portion of the gap between the $115 million perception and $21 million reality.)

So, back to the question I’ve been raising the past couple of weeks. The Henrico County website purports to be “informational,” providing citizens the objective information they need to make an informed decision in this fall’s meals-tax referendum. Yet it paints a deceptive picture of the sacrifices that county government has endured since the recession. The website chooses numbers that put the meals tax in the best possible light and omits the numbers — actual spending levels — that citizens would deem most relevant.

The $20,250 website is a work of advocacy and, thus, it violates state law prohibiting the expenditure of public funds to sway voters. In a recent column, I noted that the website didn’t mention the surge in property values that will create a gusher of real-estate property values in coming years. The selective use of budget data is a second glaring example. What else is the county not telling us? Frankly, citizens need to ask themselves if county officials be trusted on this issue at all.


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20 responses to “County Speak with Forked Tongue”

  1. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    Jim:

    The employee count of 10,491 sounds high to me (although I am sure you have the right number). Does it include the Henrico County School system?

    1. Yes, the number does include schools. Schools accounted for 6,564 of the 10,491 employees in 2012.

      Schools accounted for only 24 of the employee reduction between 2009 and 2012; general government accounted for most of the cuts.

  2. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    The Henrico County headcount of 10,491 on a population of 314,881 (2012). That’s a ratio of 31 positions per 1,000 residents. Fairfax County has a budget goal of 11.26 positions per 1,000 residents. Fairfax County Schools have 23,831 employees. If you include the schools Fairfax County’s positions per 1,000 residents goes to 33 per 1,000 residents – a number higher than but comparable to Henrico.

    How should relative government efficiency be calculated using headcount?

    I’d think two ratios are needed – students per school system employee and residents per non-school system county employee. If these totals are not kept separately then counties and cities with a younger demographic would be unfairly penalized.

    I have 3,761 as the number of Henrico County School System employees. So, let’s subtract that from 10,491 (total employees) to get non-school system employees. That’s 6,730 or 21.4 non-school employees per 1,000 residents.

    Dear Lord Jim – I hope I did the math wrong (quite possible since I am scrambling ahead of a conference call).

    Could it be that Henrico County is approximately one-half as efficient as Fairfax County when it comes to non-school county employees per 1,000 residents?

    I would have guessed just the opposite.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      Maybe you have to subtract the Henrico County employees who do road maintenance since Fairfax uses VDOT?

      1. I think it’s a legitimate exercise to make comparisons on an employee-per-population basis. But your calculations mixed up school vs. non-school. 6,730 is the number of school employees, and 3,761 is the number of general government employees.

        Another adjustment, as you rightly pointed out, needs to be made for the fact that Henrico is responsible for its own road maintenance while Fairfax has not. However, making that adjustment wouldn’t change the ratio by all that much. Henrico’s Public Works Department employed 254 people in 2012 — and a good number of them did not work on roads.

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          Interesting …. Wikipedia has it backwards:

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrico_County_Public_Schools

  3. As I go through the list of employees per department, one number stands out. The building inspections department peaked at 61 employees in 2008. It declined to 56 by 2012. That seems a small reduction given the massive downturn in housing starts. Who knows, maybe there was a pick-up in rehabs and renovations.

  4. reed fawell III Avatar
    reed fawell III

    Often smoke suggests a smoldering fire. But lets turn to serpents.

    Without knowing the particulars of this Henrico case, it far too often appears that everyday citizens with a full plate of other more personal demands now need to get down on their hands and knees and crawl though the weeds and woodpile before the facts along with the snakes crawl out. Even then, only in rare cases is competent government or policy restored.

    Isn’t this the the real job of good, competent, and forthright public officials?

  5. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    3761 – 254 = 3507

    3507 / 315 = 11.13 non-school, non-roads employees per 1,000 residents

    Henrico County is just a smidge more efficient than Fairfax County (11.13 employees per 1,000 residents vs 11.26). Of course, this assumes that Farifax County doesn’t have any roads related employees, which I guess is probably wrong.

    Now, let’s talk schools.

    Henrico – 48,659 students / 6,730 employees = 7.23 students per employee

    Fairfax – 184,625 students / 23,831 employees = 7.75 students per employee

    I’d guess that the large number of ESOL students in Fairfax County is a contributor to the ratio difference.

    Your county supervisors may not be the bastions of governmental efficiency they claim. If the Fairfax County BoS ever claimed they had no more room to cut headcount they would be laughed out of the room by county residents.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      Wow! Excuse me. I am rushing around and getting sloppy. The higher the students per employee number the more efficient. The FFX ratio is 7.75 while the Henrico ratio is 7.23. That is surprising.

    2. Every large organization, public or private, has room to bolster efficiency and productivity. The question is what are the priorities of the people at the top? If they don’t make productivity/efficiency a priority, the people below them certainly will not.

      1. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        True. But Henrico is claiming that they need the new meals tax because:

        1. They are a hyper-efficient government entity that has cut to the bone and has no more to cut.

        2. They are spending less than they used to spend.

        3. Everybody knows Henrico is super efficient because Henrico has been telling everybody that forever and forever.

        The obvious flaw is that Henrico compares itself to itself instead of comparing itself to other county-level governments in Virginia.

        If Henrico can demonstrate that it is one of the 5% – 10% most efficient counties in Virginia then their arguments might resonate with voters. However, my very rough comparison to Fairfax (hardly a bastion of efficiency) seems to show Henrico as pretty average.

        1. You make a very good point. We cannot take county officials at their word. We need to do that research and see how Henrico compares to other Virginia jurisdictions.

  6. I LIKE D.J. non-partisan, objective approach to assessing the relative efficiency of a county.

    good work DJ.

    I see it has not fazed JimB!

    this is the way the partisans approach these issues – they _COULD_ be more efficient… no matter no more efficient comparative is presented… nope.. they _could_ be more efficient with less waste, yadda, yadda, yadda

  7. I hope when your research is complete Jim, coupled with some the facts brought forth in this discussion, that you get another opportunity to publish in the Richmond paper (ahead of the election!). I’m not half as smart as you folks but I could have told you cannot take county officials at their word. They have their own agenda. And I believe a large part of that agenda is how to fund their above-average retirement packages in the future. However, I’m in no position to be able to prove it.

    1. The retirement-package angle is an interesting one to pursue. I’ll look into it.

  8. you know, it’s the damndest thing but I know a slew of people who either work for the govt or are retired from the govt – got the govt pension, social security, Medicare, etc – and are anti-govt.

    no.. they don’t want to give back their salaries or benefits.. they invariably tell me that they’ve “earned” them and deserve them but they’re pretty sure there are other govt employees and retirees who are real “slugs” who deserve to be fired of if they are retired – to have their benefits clawed back.

    Now I know some folks might think this is totally bizarre (and I’d agree !) but I’m telling you I know people currently employed by the Feds and the State – and folks retired from the Feds and the State who have become virulently anti-govt except of course for the work they do.

  9. sperkins Avatar

    In looking at expenses you’re missing the point entirely. If I have a budget of $800 million and I know my costs are increasing $50 million next year, I must find a way to cut $50 million if I only have $800 million to spend. When you look at actual expenses, one year I may have $800 million spent and the next year $800 million spent, which by your calculation is a net zero cut – when in fact the County had to cut (or absorb) the other $50 million through expense cuts of various sorts. Please get your facts straight before you opine. Your logic is seriously flawed.

    1. But that’s not how county officials explained the situation, is it?

  10. I am posting this comment from another place on the blog where it would not be seen in the context of this story and discussion. — JAB

    I have recently received and read your article regarding the Henrico meals tax. First let me say that I have lived in Henrico county since 1967 having moved here from the Philadelphia area. For many years I was satisfied with our county government. Now, as I learn more I’m more disappointed than ever. I am well aware of run-away politics ruining government. But back to the point, everything in your article I espouse as well as concur with you on. Now, how about page 2 ? I am a retired Henrico county deputy sheriff. I tell you this so you know I have seen things on the inside. As former law enforcement I am on the board of the FOP Henrico lodge #4. Three months ago the county manager requested a meeting with the FOP board, the purpose of which was to convince us to convince the rank and file that the meals tax was good and necessary. I still don’t have a good taste in my mouth about this. Also, if we are in need of funds, why do we have two jails, one East in New Kent County and one West? Another point of interest, take a good look at the badges we are issued. The Henrico unit is the only one without the state seal; they use Pocohantas. It would appear that this county would prefer to be the great independent state off Henrico.

    Frank J. Hudak

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