Construction Begins on Beltway HOT Lanes, Questions Linger

Fluor Corporation and Transurban (USA) Inc. formally broke ground on the Capital Beltway HOT lane yesterday. Patrick Flaherty, head of Fluor’s infrastructure business, touted the project as a model for similar partnerships nationally. A press release from the P.R. firm for the project reminds readers of the benefits of the public-private partnership:

  • Fourteen miles of HOT lanes – two new lanes in each direction – from the Springfield Interchange to just north of the Dulles Toll Road;

  • Replacement of more than $250 million of aging infrastructure, including more than 50 bridges and overpasses;
  • Upgrades to 11 key interchanges, including improved connections at I-66 and three new access points into the Tysons Corner area;
  • Construction of more than 70,000 linear feet (13 miles) of new sound walls to replace current 30,000 feet of protection.

The ground-breaking appears to be stimulating closer public scrutiny than the project ever received when it was still being negotiated. Bacon’s Rebellion raised questions two weeks ago about covenants that would restrict the Virginia Department of Transportation from making improvements that might siphon toll payers away from the Beltway. (See “The Capital Beltway HOT Lane Deal: Did the Kaniacs Give Away the Store?“)

Then on Sunday, Eric Weiss with the Washington Post wrote an article focusing on financial penalties that would kick in if the percentage of carpoolers exceeded 24 percent of the traffic on the HOT lanes — a provision that could cost the Commonwealth $1 million a year.

Barbara Reese, deputy transportation secretary and a key negotiator on the deal, said the subsidy would kick in when the HOT lanes are at maximum capacity for more than 30 minutes. At that point, the state is liable for every 15 minutes that the HOT lanes are at maximum capacity for that day. Wrote Weiss: “She said the estimated $1 million-a-year liability exposure to the state seemed reasonable to state officials. She acknowledged, however, that the spike in carpooling and transit use could increase the state’s liability, but officials said they could not estimate by how much.”

Here are the higher-level questions: What performance standards are built into the contract? What levels of service must be maintained? Will the HOT lanes be optimized for providing mobility for the maximum number of people — or for generating the most toll revenue?

The project very well could become a model for the rest of the country, as Flaherty suggests. But we won’t know if it’s a model to be emulated or one to be avoided until we have more transparency regarding the deal that the state cut with the private operators.

I’m a big proponent of the private sector playing a larger role in building Virginia’s transportation infrastructure. But there is no inherent reason that VDOT couldn’t build the HOT lanes and administer them to optimize the public benefit. Indeed, the public may reject future public-private partnerships if fears persist that the deals are negotiated for the benefit of the private operators and/or the political class rather than for the benefit of the taxpayers and the public. The full contract needs to be made public.


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  1. Lyle Solla-Yates Avatar
    Lyle Solla-Yates

    You know, I’ve been wondering the same thing. Why can’t VDOT handle HOT lanes itself? Transurban has developed some clever enforcement technology, but I don’t see why the state couldn’t do the same or lease Transurban’s. I continue to believe that the real market for HOT lanes isn’t so much in new capacity as in existing infrastructure being used inefficiently and maintained poorly.

  2. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    just FYI:

    “Frequently asked questions

    Why couldn’t the Commonwealth just finance this project on its own?
    With all the transportation needs, the Commonwealth does not have sufficient funding to dedicate to this project. This one project would consume more than a year of all construction funding available statewide.”

    and more:

    Under the agreement, can Fluor-Transurban veto further expansion of the Beltway or improvements to surrounding roads?

    No. The private partners have no ability to restrict the Commonwealth from making improvements or expansions to the region’s roadways.
    VDOT has agreed to provide the private partners the opportunity to propose to build additional tolled lanes on the Capital Beltway if congestion would ever warrant them.

    Will the Commonwealth have to pay Fluor-Transurban if carpooling increases on the Beltway?
    To ensure HOV-3 will always be free and that there is no disincentive for carpool and transit use on the HOT lanes, the Commonwealth will
    make partial payments to the Concessionaire in the unlikely event that HOV use exceeds mutually agreed upon numbers. This provision is
    intended to ensure that unforeseeable changes in travel patterns don’t restrict HOT lanes ability to generate enough revenue to pay for the operations and maintenance of the lanes, as well as paying back construction debt. We believe, at this time, it is unlikely that HOV will
    increase at a rate significant enough to impact the project and trigger this arrangement.

    How will toll revenues be spent?
    Toll revenues will first be used to maintain and operate the HOT lanes, then to pay back the debt on the road. The private partners will also fund all the maintenance replacement needed to keep the road up to VDOT standards throughout the life of the agreement. If the private
    partners are successful in managing the project, additional revenue will go back to their investors. Revenue above agreed benchmarks will be shared with the Commonwealth to fund transportation programs and projects in the corridor.

    http://www.virginiahotlanes.com/documents/CB-HOT-terms-July-08-Fact-Sheet.pdf

    Then a little history:

    1994 Major Investment Study identifies need for Beltway
    improvements

    1998 Public hearings

    2002 Fairfax Board urges consideration of HOT lanes;
    project scaled back significantly in response to public
    input; property impacts drop from 350 to 8

    2004 Additional public hearings, 64 percent of comments
    received support HOT lanes

    2005 Public comment period surrounding environmental
    document and regional Long-Range planning process; Commonwealth Transportation Board
    approves plan 2006 Fairfax Board supports alternative

    http://www.virginiahotlanes.com/documents/General-Assembly-Presentation.pdf

    I’m not claiming all of the above is the truth from on high – only what is contained on the official web site – and some of it appears to conflict with some current reports.

    and I’m not sure I buy the financing explanation either if the Feds were offering subsidized financing… anyhow.. so count me in the group that would like to know more about the how and why’s.

    What also seems clear is that Fairfax leaders supported the concept and that citizens and other area leaders did not oppose it – at least, I’ve seen few reports alluding to continuing citizen opposition nor statements from area leaders in opposition to it.

    The moral of this story is that if NoVa citizens and leaders were strongly opposed to this concept, they may well have been able to either stop it or steer it to a State-operated version.

    No where have I seen, for instance, even prior statements from environmental groups – who could have opposed it on any number of points – NOW being raised.

    My sense is that most folks in NoVa are reconciled to this or something like it – knowing that the problem region-wide congestion is not something that NoVa or for that matter any other major metropolitan area is going to build their way out of.

    Having said this – I am more and more chagrined at just how STINKY this is proceeding.. with one shoe after another being dropped.. that, if nothing else, shows just how much area officials were either:

    1. – asleep at the switch

    2. – complicit

    3. – content to let VDOT to it whatever way VDOT wanted to do it.

    and here is one thing that is clearly a difference between a private entity doing this and VDOT doing it.

    …just about everybody is shocked at how fast it is proceeding…

    .. the conventional wisdom seemed to be that like most other VDOT projects.. we’d talk about it for 20 years and then spend 10 more actually doing it.

  3. Lyle Solla-Yates Avatar
    Lyle Solla-Yates

    Building on that idea, I’m reminded that for a long time there’s been a steady pot of money for paving country dirt roads with state money. But it occurs to me that given escalating state maintenance costs and a shrinking budget, a more reasonable approach might be to first review the existing transportation portfolio, see which investments are successful and should stay as they are, and which are having trouble and need to be either converted to HOT lanes, sold off, or drop state maintenance. Only then should considerations of new maintenance obligations be considered.
    Perhaps this is obvious to others and even practiced to some extent but it just occurred to me.

  4. Lyle Solla-Yates Avatar
    Lyle Solla-Yates

    @Larry: “…just about everybody is shocked at how fast it is proceeding…” Ha, good point. I guess they’re in a hurry to make their money back. And nice research, I hadn’t seen that.

  5. “I’m not claiming all of the above is the truth from on high – only what is contained on the official web site – and some of it appears to conflict with some current reports.”

    Thanks for posting that. It’s very clever spin. E.g.

    1. ‘The private partners have no ability to restrict the Commonwealth from making improvements or expansions to the region’s roadway’ is technically true. The Australians cannot say ‘no’ to road improvements. Instead, they say ‘Pay us $1 million if you want to build a new interchange (at your cost)’ which has the exact same effect.

    2. ‘the Commonwealth does not have sufficient funding to dedicate to this project.’ We’re only talking about $349m in capital from Australia. Total lie, especially when that amount could be had by rearranging the financing terms.

    “My sense is that most folks in NoVa are reconciled to this or something like it”

    That might be true since NOVA is filled with socialists. But I suspect there’s more at work. The utter laziness of the media (i.e., being scooped by the Internet) means that the vast majority of the public has absolutely no idea what this project will mean for them. No idea.

    Jim Bacon: “The full contract needs to be made public.”

    Most of it is. Not sure if all the incorporated-by-reference stuff and attachments are online, but the primary documents are available.

    Another key aspect of the scam has been left out of the (non-existent) public debate. The Aussies are coy and secretive about HOW the carpooling is going to work. Why not ask them if they’re planning on forcing carpools to register in advance — a sure way to annoy the heck out of the slugs and ensure max profit. My guess is, yes… but they won’t tell you that until it’s too late.

  6. A great point made by the Financial Times yesterday about the reckless financial model used by Transurban (and Macquarie).

    The summary is that these companies have become ‘millionaire factories’ through a form of arbitrage that’s only sustainable with a free-flowing credit market. Oops, that’s gone now.

    “Returns [for infrastructure funds] have instead emanated from releveraging the finances in a previously ‘cheap’ debt market. The stable cash flow that can be gained from infrastructure makes it easy to gear up with large amounts of debt, and in the era of cheap finance, banks were more than willing to provide the leverage.”

    “There are close parallels here with the residential property market. Infrastructure funds are simply doing what many mortgage borrowers were doing up until last year. In a world of cheap mortgages, low deposit requirements and rapidly rising house prices, it made sense to lever-up. For both the housing and infrastructure sectors, the removal of easy financing stops this seemingly virtuous cycle dead in its tracks.”

    Can you say:
    S-C-A-M.
    E-N-R-O-N.

    I knew you could.

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I personally believe this is a good project for Virginia for several reasons.

    1. Virginia could not afford to build this project without increased funding – which it appears will not be coming for a while. Yes VA could find the same equity level that the private guys did but they likely would not have recieved the same federal bond support the private guys did – some of hte bonds can only be used by the private sector. http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/pressroom/fhwa0721.htm

    2. If the govt ran the toll road, members of the GA and local board would take all manner of steps to limit the toll rates. This would prevent free flow for HOV and transit in this corridor.

    3. Even if VA has to pay hte private guys money – is that worth it to have a free flowing corridor for transit? I think so. Assume VA has to pay $1 a year for 40 years (tahts what WaPo said) – thats $40m – certianly cheaper than building new lanes for transit in teh corridor. Also if the private guys saw HOV and transit use as potentially making them default on bonds – wouldn’t they try to suppress HOV and transit use?

    4. There are revenue sharing provisions to teh contract (at least according to the FAQ posted here). So VA may pay one year but recieve money another year.

    Either way its a major improvement in a very congested corridor and only time will tell how well it will work.

  8. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Haven’t seen the estimate average trip metric before…

    “Barbara Reese, Virginia’s deputy secretary of transportation, said tolls are expected to average about $1 a mile with the average trip being 5 to 6 miles”

    http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/f9cf73df2b3548f1259dc8371f540ddc.htm

  9. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Under the agreement, can Fluor-Transurban veto further expansion of the Beltway or improvements to surrounding roads?

    No. The private partners have no ability to restrict the Commonwealth from making improvements or expansions to the region’s roadways.”

    Strictly speaking that is correct, bu tit isn’t the whoe picture as I understand it.

    Transurban can’t VETO the commonwealth from making any improvements (which is unlikely anyway) but they can send the commonwealth a big bill for creating a situation that damages their “property rights”.

    That will make it even less likely the commonwealth will offer any additional improvements – even if by some miracle the GA gets off its duff.

    RH

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Revenue above agreed benchmarks will be shared with the Commonwealth to fund transportation programs and projects in the corridor.”

    In other words, the commonwealth is last in line.

    RH

  11. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “2004 Additional public hearings, 64 percent of comments
    received support HOT lanes”

    Well, gee, I wonder how THAT happened.

    RH

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    We’re only talking about $349m in capital from Australia.

    The rest comes form government bonds JUST AS IF WE DID IT OURSELVES.

    We put upt the bulk of the money, but they effectively OWN it for 349 million.

    Great, just Great

    RH

  13. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I’m trying not to gloat. I warned you about the car pool debacle and how it would be managed for revenue, not throughput.

    NYAH, NA NI NA NYAH. I toldy you so, I told you so. ITYS

    OK, I failed in gloat suppression.

    RH

  14. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “emanated from releveraging the finances “

    Larry should love that, and the fact that the commonwealth will pay the tolls for car pools under some conditions.

    RH

  15. Isn’t having the Commonwealth pay people to carpool the RH plan?

    🙂

  16. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    ” is that worth it to have a free flowing corridor for transit? I think so. “

    But you are not going to get a free flowing corridor. You are going to get a congested corridor, inorder to induce a very few to pay the tolls.

    This is like having a pinhole in a garden hose with the nozzle shut down. Then you look at the little spritz coming out of the side of the hose and call THAT free flow!

    RH

  17. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    DANG IT Bob – you beat me to it!

  18. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: paying for carpooling.

    If just one-half of the folks current NOT carpooling decide to carpool and/or pay tolls just imagine how empty – and inviting – the untolled lanes will appear.

    The truth is that no one really knows how the slugs, buses, paid tolls and untolled lanes are going to look after HOT lanes go “hot”.

    I can predict this – Transurban is not going to screw around with the carpoolers without a major rash from VDOT and the State.

    I AM concerned about how the carpools are going to work – especially the folks that “swing both ways”…. slug/carpool or pay toll….

    I just don’t see how they’re going to be able to do this unless they have separate lanes and a fairly strong and effective enforcement presence.

    but look at it this way.. we have 5 whole years to figure it out!

    🙂

  19. “The truth is that no one really knows how the slugs, buses, paid tolls and untolled lanes are going to look after HOT lanes go “hot”.”

    Not true. This has all happened before. The 91 Express Lanes. A total disaster for the taxpayers, and a completely congested mess for commuters — including, sometimes, the fools who shelled out $10 to sit in a parking lot.

    HOV will be actively discouraged with a registration requirement. I reserve the right to say “I told you so” five years from now.

  20. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    why wait.. RH is already saying it!

    🙂

    well as someone once said…

    it’s all over but the shouting…

    🙂

  21. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    I believe that this will prove to be a fiasco. Last weekend, I went to the Eastern Shore of Maryland. I drove over the Bay Bridge. It cost $2.50 going east and nothing when I returned (the tolls are only charged going east). So, a one way trip over the Bay Bridge costs $1.25. The Bay Bridge is 4.3 miles long. That’s 29 cents a mile. And that’s to travel over one of the world’s longest over-water spans. The bridge soars over the Chesapeake with a view at the apex that would scare most high wire artists. I believe that most people believe that the Bay Bridge is an amazing structure and paying 29 cents / mile is reasonable. Neither the clown show in Richmond nor their corporate henchmen seem able to say with certainty what it will cost to travel on the HOT lanes. However, estimates run to $1/mi. Applied to the Bay Bridge, this would be the equivalent to charging $8.60 for a round trip over the bridge and back. So, it seems the state of Maryland is able to operate a collosal engineering project for less than 1/3 what the Commontheft of Virginia will have their citizens pay for a regular old road. The next time the Clown Show in Richmond (aka the General Assembly) wants to “outsource” a transportation matter they should consider letting Maryland bid. I think all of Virginia’s citizens would be better off if the GA just gave VDOT and all responsibility for transportation to Maryland and let the pros in Annapolis take over management from the clowns in Richmond.

    Now, compare what the effective legislators in Maryland have done with what the clown show in Richmond is doing. The clown show has sold the rights to the HOT lanes for (essentially) forever for $349M in capital (or about 1% of the state of Virginia’s annual budget). The clown show says they could not have managed that financing. Yet, Flour has annual revenues of $16B versus Virginia’s state budget of $35B (As far as I can tell, Transurban’s revenues are small enough to be inconsequential to this discussion). Bozo, Krusty and the other members of the General Assembly would have you believe that the financing can be arranged by an entity 1/2 the size of Virginia (annual revenue vs. annual budget) but not by the Commontheft of Virginia.

    NoVa’s more astute politicians are already trying to back-pedal on this fiasco. They claim the HOT lanes were sold by VDOT using a law that was passed in 1997 rather than a new law that they voted for. They bring up the Mixing Bowl and Wilson Bridge projects in an effort to deflect attention from this toll road disaster. They may have finally forgotten the golden rule of NoVA politicians – steal from your constituents silently. Instead of a myriad of taxes and a hopelessly confusing set of allocation formulae, the theft will now be observable to anybody who is paying $1/mile or sitting in a traffic jam because they can’t or won’t pay the HOT toll.

    I think there will be a backlash of epic proportion. The Republican Party could take back momentum in Northern Virginia by pinning this debacle on Tim Kaine and the Democratic politicians of NoVA. Of course, that would assume that the Republican Party was well enough organized to see this opportunity and react – an assumption not in evidence.

  22. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Will the backlash hit Connolly?

    What politicians do you see as vulnerable from the HOT lane decision?

    just FYI – the “clown show” did not have that much to do with this as far as I can tell… it was mostly the NoVa leaders who supported it – and let’s say.. that they certainly do not have a record of opposing it.

    trying to blame Richmond for this when there are no other tolling proposals in the entire state is … being blind to reality – no?

  23. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    OK Larry, let’s start with a dose of reality. Transurban has two US properties. What are they? The Capital Beltway and the Pocohontas Parkway in Richmond. It’s a matter of public record. So, the contention that there is only one tolling effort rings a bit hollow. Next, I’ll provde a one sentence synopsis of the Pocohontas Parkway deal. The Pocohontas Parkway was such a ridiculous pork barrel scam that even the Descendants of Pocohontas couldn’t keep a straight face (politically speaking) so they made it a toll road.

    NoVA politicians never pushed for these HOT lanes. NoVA politicians have no positions on anything of importance to their constituents. They are part time political hacks who suck at the teat of developers and their state political parties. If you look up useless in the dictionary, there are pictures of NoVA state politicians to help you understand the full meaning of the word. In a region of successful people the state politicians are the bit players who never became the “movers and shakers” that their parents hoped they would be.

    Meanwhile, most of the residents in NoVA have drifted in from elsewhere and think of some other God forsaken place as home. Many came from RoVA. They came for the jobs, the salaries and the schools for their kids. They spend 30 years here without one whit of interest in the region or its future. You could excuse them as dim bulbs except for the unfortunate fact that they breed. Their kids were born in NoVA, grew up in NoVA, went to high school in NoVA and consider NoVA their home. Their kids don’t have any attachment to Hooterville and will never go back to Hooterville. The parents ramble on about “bein’ frum the real Vir – gin – ya” and space out on anything to do with local matters. In Hooterville the train is comin’ round the bend and they are going to be there – sooner rather than later. Their indifference to the place where their children will live, marry and raise their own kids is both a indicator of their core selfishness and mute testimony as to why their hometowns are failing educationally and economically. But it doesn’t matter to Jethro and Daisy Mae – they made their money in NoVA and they will go back to Hooterville with a pocket full of bills. Only, back in Hooterville, the mills are gone, the small farms are failing and desperation is the new town motto. In fact, these hapless hicks transplanted to NoVA will spend no more than 3 years back in Hooterville before they move to Florida or some other place that didn’t melt down when it was abandoned by the very people who claim to love it. Presumably, they will tell their new neighbors in Bonita Springs that they come from the real Virginia, not the place they lived almost their enire adult lives. In Bonita Springs, the retirees from Chicago, Detroit and other places in the MidWest will look at these transplanted RoVA people like they have three eyes – which some of them, in fact, do.

    And the NoVA bomb just keeps on ticking. Tick tock, tick tock. At some point the local politicos slip up and are seen for the shameless petty scammers they really are. There is a political revolt among the people and the long term con men and con women of the NoVA politcal genre are booted out. Now they have to go tell their mommies and daddies that they have even failed as part time politcal hacks.

    Connolly will skate. Slick Willie has nothing on Jumpin’ Gerry. Connelly knows that the gig is up as a Fairfax County supervisor so he’s moving on up. He’ll be long gone before the full impact of his reign of terror is fully understood. By that time, he’ll be advertising how he’s fighting the good fight in Congress. When that starts to get long in the tooth – he’ll move up again. US Senate? VP? President Connelly? I know it sounds absurd but look at who is in the White House right now. 20 years ago George W Bush was a failed oil executive and defeated candidate for the US House of Representatives. Please don’t tell me that Gerry Connelly can’t be “all that he can be”.

  24. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    well.. It’s hard not to grin whilst reading your rebuttal.

    And I’ll admit you’re right about the Richmond connection… it did start with the Pocahontas Parkway.

    but geeze Louise Groveton…

    how can we have incompetent GA and VDOT leadership on one hand that refuses to “help” NoVa on it’s transportation needs but then that same leadership gets credit for skunking NoVa on a toll road? they don’t want?

    and then, also blaming your own citizens and your own elected leaders for allowing it to happen.

    gee… who actually stood up for NoVa? No one?

    HR/TW, also a region with transient (Naval) populations, were opposed to their leadership’s road plans and in the end.. they got the (same incompetent?) GA to kill their TA – and a VDOT leadership that is very aware of the backlash potential of tolling HR/TW infrastructure.

    It’s kind of hard to visualize NoVa as any less able or less willing to assert their own interests.

    I have to conclude instead that most NoVa Leaders supported the HOT lane concept – from the beginning as I see no record of their opposition, nor of citizen opposition – and had there been, it would have ended the same way as HR/TW rejection of what they did not want.

    I mean this is comical … you have a huge region of citizens and elected officials who essentially stood by with their hands in their pockets as they watched the imposition of toll roads that they were opposed to – get implemented?

    fess up. ya’ll got HOT because your elected officials wanted it and youse citizens had AMPLE opportunities over 10 years to get rid of folks like Connolly who supported it – and it appears to me…that one of the biggest advocates of the HOT lanes is now going to have 70% of your citizens send him to Congress – no?

    so.. one would have thought that Connolly would have caught the backlash… right?

    why not?

    and if not Connolly, then who?

  25. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Local and state politicos had nothing to do with this

    See below

    Source

    http://www.virginiahotlanes.com/beltway-project-info-history.asp

    2004
    Transurban (USA) Development Inc. joins the Fluor team to serve as concessionaire and long-term operator of the HOT lanes.

    VDOT hosts public meetings in June to present and solicit public input on both a traditional HOV and a HOT lanes plan.

    2005
    On January 19, the Commonwealth Transportation Board selects the HOT lanes plan as the locally preferred alternative.

    On April 28, VDOT enters into a Comprehensive Agreement with Fluor-Transurban to develop, design, finance, build and operate the HOT lanes. VDOT will continue to have ownership and oversight of the road.

    NOte who selected this plan. This was all done worked and managed at the Commonwealth Transportation Board

    ALL of the members are APPOINTED and were appointed by Governors WARNER and KAINE. So if you want to blame anyone blame them.

    ___________________________________

    However I for one strongly support this. We are basically getting free flowing bus service along one of the most congested coridors

    Would you rather PAY 5 billion to put metro along the beltway… didn’t think so

    I will say that I am curious how the 349 million number was agreed upon. I will note however that IMHO it would have cost much more than 349 million for VDOT to build and operate this.

    NMM

  26. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The toll road is pretty much a done deal at this point, unless some GA memebers suddenly turn into Batman. All we can do now is watch the show unfold.

    I don’t think the history is very inviting, conisdering Larry’s previously quoted statistics on toll roads in Washington and several venomous blog sites concerning the recently opened florida roads, and the moratorium in Texas.

    Groveton’s probably right, and we will regret this eventually. COG is probably right that it will reduce carpools in an efort to increase usage of the lanes, which seems a shame. COG is probably right that some businesses will move. And it won;t make a bit of difference in the number of code red days we have every year.

    Maybe, it will be better than doing nothing, but that isn’t saying much. Even then, doing nothing might have wound up costing us ALL less.

    You have a huge region of citizens and elected officials who essentially stood by with their hands in their pockets as they watched the imposition of toll roads that they were opposed to – get implemented? I think it is called government by apathy. All that is necessary is for good people to do nothing. It is a huge mistake to think that just because something got done that the people or officials wnated it: all it takes is a few dedicated and slick tongued champions.

    It is easy to say that people should be more involved, but they have their own problems and their own lives to live. At the same time a lot of “public involvement” is just for show: peoples real ability to affect what public officials do is nil, except for every four years. And, if the board is on roatating terms, you are talking about at least 12 and probably 20 years to change horses. Even then you may find you have a maverick or a horse with a sweet tooth.

    Nova has to take some responsibility of course, but Groveton is essentially right: the goovernment is out of control of the people. That’s why we hear people refer to “the government” as if it was different from the people.

    We need a lot more votes on a lot more issues a lot more often. Then you might hear the Larry’s of the world singing a different tune: “they are clueless, the people are morons, etc.”

    On this toll deal, even
    Schwartz was shocked. I think it was the first time he was ever quoted in the paper as saying something I could agree with. But, since he never met(or drove on) a road he didn’t dislike, his comment in this regard may just be in character and not the result of actually thinking about the situation.

    RH

  27. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The 349 million is just the down payment. The rest will be either paid for by VDOT outright, or it will be paid for with government bonds, just as it would have if VDOT built it.

    The difference is that Fluor is on the hook for paying back the bonds out of toll revenues from the citizens that use it, instead of being paid back by citizens like Larry. That’s why the tolls have to be so high, why so few will use it, and why free flowing won’t mean squat when it comes to easing area congestion or pollution.

    RH

  28. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    RH:

    I’d love to get into a “venom off” with the good people from Texas and Florida per your comment:

    “I don’t think the history is very inviting, conisdering Larry’s previously quoted statistics on toll roads in Washington and several venomous blog sites concerning the recently opened florida roads, and the moratorium in Texas.”.

    Any chance you have URLs for these venomous blog sites?

  29. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Larry:

    What Connelly and the state legislators from NoVA should have done was “scream bloody murder”. NoVA already pays over 40% of the state’s taxes yet gets only 25% of the state transportation funding. So, why should NoVA get the $1/mi HOT lanes?

    They will blame the appointed CTB, they will blame VDOT. What they should have done was raise he** when this was all being negotiated.

    Gilmore should be using this to pick up a few votes in NoVA right now.

  30. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I have really enjoyed this discussion and I learned a lot.

    Government by apathy and all-appointed decision making bodies – that pretty much says it all.

    Thanks!

    -Reid Greenmun
    TW/HR
    Virginia Beach Taxpayer’s Alliance
    Transportation Chairman

  31. charlie Avatar

    gosh, if I find myself agreeing with Groveton, then we have a real problem.

    I like the 29 cents a mile comparison; I might even go up to 33 cents for the 395 to the Wilson bridge part. But $1 a mile?

    Revenue will be under predictions, and the commonwealth will be spending millions on this bad idea.

  32. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    the buck a mile sounds high – though it is the quoted number.

    Most HOT lanes in other parts of the country are less than 50 cents per mile.

  33. It’s $1 per mile in Orange County, CA. Has been for some time (project started in late 90s).

    There are only five other HOT lane projects running, and most of them opened a year or two ago. It takes a little while for the charge to build that high — but it will grow without stopping because nobody really knows what they’re paying.

    Soon, you’ll be thinking $1/mile is cheap.

  34. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: knowing how much the tax/toll is.

    Quick – tell me how much you paid in gas tax on your last fill-up.

    ahh…yes.. you gotta sit down and figure out how many gallons and then you gotta try to remember how much the state and Fed taxes per gallon were.

    My point? I think this is yet another of the “cons” given for toll roads that when looked at in a reasonable comparison with taxes is a wash.

    Most folks don’t know when they pay.

    In fact, people will notice MORE when they start getting their credit card bills…

    At that point… if you would ask people how much they paid in tolls for a month would remember their credit card bill – but if you asked them what the total they paid in gas taxes for the month, I’ll bet that even you Bob cannot…without some remember and calculation.

    agree?

  35. A bit of an apples & oranges comparison. I can tell you exactly what I paid at the pump. I know when the price goes up. No idea on what the tax paid was — but the tax rate hasn't changed in years, so there's no need to worry about a tax change.

    I do support printing excise & sales tax amounts on the receipt.

    The "con" I was conveying is different. Toll proponent put out the claim that they are designed to leverage "market pricing." It's total garbage, because nobody knows what he's paying. This makes it painless for the Aussies to keep jacking up the rate — nobody's watching.

    That's why $1/mile will seem cheap in a few years.

  36. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    I don’t know about you guys… but when I enter a toll road – I pay attention to the cost.

    I think most folks do.

    and to say that NOT knowing about how much gas tax you pay is totally bogus…

    Because most folks don’t know what they pay – they have NO IDEA of how much roads actually cost to use – and that is part of the problem.

    If you took a poll of 100 people and ask them how much they paid in tax at their last fill-up and how much total tax they paid in a year – 99 of them could not tell you.

  37. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I really like Bob's suggestion that the amounts of taxes paid be set forth on any receipt for gas. Federal, state and, in the case of NoVA, the extra sales tax. Just like Verizon, AT&T, et al., put the cost of government taxes and fees on your landline or cell phone bill.

    Interestingly, as I recall, a number of state and local governments strongly opposed breaking out all of the phone-related taxes and charges on bills. It's harder to sneak charges by when people see them on their bills. The same would hold for gas-related taxes. More people would begin to understand what driving costs them and, more important, how much the government's taxes are of that cost.

    In this case, I suspect that most government bodies would not strongly object to this billing display, but those who work the process to get roads or trolleys built right near their property would likely scream foul. Drivers might start questioning what they received for their taxes? Where is the maintenance? Where are the intersection improvements, turn lanes, etc.?

    Visible price signals, be it taxes or tolls, make it much harder for the Lords of the Manor to get tax- and toll-paying vassals to fund the Lords' latest real estate development schemes.

    Bob, excellent suggestion. Too bad it violates the state religion.

    TMT

  38. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    part of my complaint about the comparisons between “free” roads and toll roads is the inability to truly compare the two – both pros and cons with some level of objectivity.

    We forget/ignore that the same power structure that brings us “free” roads is behind the proposals for toll roads.

    so we end up with foolishness like claiming that toll roads “hide” their true cost when billed electronically ..while completely ignoring the fact that “free” roads actually do the same thing – even worse.

    As I said before – the average person.. and especially those who say they are opposed to toll roads cannot tell you how much the average tax is on a fill-up nor how much we pay or a monthly or yearly basis for “free” roads.

    and then we have one of the bigger contradictions in NoVa.

    those opposed to toll roads in NoVa say that the more equitable way to deal with increased costs is a statewide gas tax increase – even though the SAME folks ALSO bitterly complain that NoVa gets screwed on the statewide gas tax.

    All I ask for – is some level of intellectual consistency in the dialogue…. about pros/cons.

    The Feds, for instance, require HOT lanes – no matter who is doing them – to design them for 45 mph speeds – which is pretty much the case on most HOT lanes most of the time.

    And this also constitutes a requirement in the concession agreement – a point at which the State can actually cancel the contract if not met.

    and yet.. we have the opponents claiming both things… that the HOT lanes will be parking lots .and we’ll be stuck with it for 80 years….

    .. which is when I start throwing the “propaganda” flag…..

    when the “con” arguments themselves are not consistent with each other.. then we have propaganda.

  39. “We forget/ignore that the same power structure that brings us ‘free’ roads is behind the proposals for toll roads.”

    You raise valid points. But they’ve all been addressed several times. None of us on the toll opposition side are foolish enough to believe VDOT doesn’t squander most of its money on utter garbage (e.g. $5b train to Dulles). That’s why my mantra has been NO NEW MONEY WITHOUT REFORM. Put in all caps so maybe you’ll see it this time. Kaine, Homer, and the entire General Assembly should be sent to some island continent used as a penal colony.

    It’s simple. VDOT collects X amount of money for a given area and wastes it on trains and trolleys. Transurban now will collect 1.5X from the same area and waste it on hookers, cocaine, and vegemite.

    At least 2% of the population can use the trolleys.

    “so we end up with foolishness like claiming that toll roads ‘hide’ their true cost when billed electronically”

    You’ve established already that something that appears in a report or a survey is automatically true. So explain this MIT Study that says the ETC hides toll costs. Sure, nobody knows the VDOT budget. But nobody knows the education budget or even the overall state budget, either. Of the taxes that change regularly — eg. property tax — they know.

    A toll (tax) that can change without people noticing is a dangerous thing.

    “The Feds, for instance, require HOT lanes – no matter who is doing them – to design them for 45 mph speeds … we have the opponents claiming both things… that the HOT lanes will be parking lots”

    Ah, so you believe government promises over reality. You probably believe in social security, too. I’ve seen the grand daddy of HOT lanes in action (91 Express Lanes), in person, over a decade. There are three distinct parking lots created: (1) the general purpose lanes, (2) surrounding side streets, and (3) the HOT lanes themselves.

    1 and 2 are always a problem — not only is there no “promise” of protection for them, there’s the exact opposite. Number 3 is a crapshoot.

  40. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    When you show that ALL HOT lanes are parking lots at ALL hours… then I’ll accept that much easier than picking on HOT lane project at certain hours…

    In other words – what is the predominate experience across all the HOT Lanes?

    Because – you are implying that because there are issues at one HOT lane….at certain hours.. that all of them are suffering the same – and that is not true.

    Show a pattern – where many of the Hot LANES are having the same kinds of problems – fundamental to the concept itself not working..

    what you are doing.. is cherry-picking some isolated issues and using it to imply that the concept itself is a failure.

    It could turn out this way.. I’ll allow that is a possibility.. but you have not shown this at all or anything close.

    that’s not being honest IMHO.

    that’s propaganda utilizing selected information in a way to imply a larger truth – and as such – it’s not an honest dialogue on the merits….

    The Feds say 45 mpg… No.. I do not believe it just because it is written nor if the Feds or VDOT say it.. but if you want to claim that the 45mpg will not or does not work – show that.

    Show that none of the existing HOT Lanes or most of them fail to achieve the 45mpg most of the time.

    again.. let’s have some honesty in portraying info as factual….

    It might well be – over time – that HOT will not achieve anymore than what was hoped that HOV had hoped to achieve – and has not achieved.

    But we have at least six HOT lanes up and running.

    Are ALL of them failing to achieve the 45mpg and ALL of them are turning into parking lots with $10 tolls?

    How about 1/2 of them?

    How about 1/4 of them?

    or it is just one example?

  41. “what you are doing.. is cherry-picking some isolated issues and using it to imply that the concept itself is a failure.”

    As I said, there’s only one HOT lane that has been working for any significant amount of time. It makes sense to look at that one. Or shall we base our judgement on the Colorado HOT lane that opened three weeks ago? The 495 lanes will not be a failure immediately because some new capacity (albeit restricted) is being added. It will take time for the congestion effects to kick in. The 95/395 HOT lanes do not add capacity and will be an immediate disaster.

    Beyond that, southern California traffic is comparable in intensity to NOVA. Looking at the new HOT projects in Minneapolis or Utah isn’t really a good comparison.

    “When you show that ALL HOT lanes are parking lots at ALL hours… then I’ll accept that much easier than picking on HOT lane project at certain hours…”

    Right. HOT lanes are a success because they’re not congested at 3am on Christmas, New Year’s and Easter. Silly me for thinking rush hour is the only time that matters.

  42. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Of course not – but let’s DO discuss which ones are having problems… what kinds of problems.. and how widespread…

    ..and which ones seem to be operating more smoothly…if that is the case

    HOT Lanes are a new concept and it is certainly possible that they will not end up operationally the way that is hoped… certainly HOV did not in many areas – though in the Washington Area -slugging seems to be very successful.

    also.. with the California example, isn’t that project Express Lanes rather than HOT Lanes?

    http://www.91expresslanes.com/tollschedules.asp

    Express Lanes are not dynamically priced and that is one of the lessons learned that has spawned the HOT Lane concept.

    Express Lanes could not guarantee a 45mpg throughput because they cannot adjust the toll dynamically to achieve it so are you not attributing a problem to HOT Lanes by not even using a true HOT Lane example?

    what say you?

    why not be honest and up front with the info to start with?

  43. The 91 project is considered an HOT lane by DOT and Reason Foundation. The pricing changes, but I honestly never thought about how it does so. If you want to pick a nit, it’s more the “HO” part that’s a joke, not the congestion pricing aspect. See this:

    “The policy is designed to optimize 91 Express Lanes traffic flow at free-flow speeds. To accomplish this, hourly traffic volumes in the 91 Express Lanes are continually monitored. Once the hourly traffic volumes are consistently too heavy and there is the potential for traffic congestion, a rate adjustment is made. This primarily impacts the eastbound evening rush hours.”

    That sounds dynamic to me. Looks like the difference is that the pricing is updated every six months instead of every 15 minutes. You’re assuming the difference is a big one. But to know whether that’s a relevant difference, you need to know whether traffic volume follows a regular pattern, or whether it varies randomly. It’s pretty regular in my experience, but occasionally I’ve seen a price mismatch, like $5 for HOT when the regular lanes are moving quickly.

    My guess is there’s some bureaucratic reason (“the toll policy”) why they don’t update every 15 minutes. There’s no technology reason why they don’t since they have all the required pieces: electronic signs and constant data collection.

  44. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    right… we have a nomenclature issue and I also did not understand completely as I did not realize that even the Transportation folks were calling Express Lanes – HOT Lanes.

    Not all HOT lanes dynamically priced – based on congestion.

    dynamic congestion pricing… means that you adjust the toll according to the real-time traffic demand.

    That is how they can promise a 45mpg speed.

    When the road starts to fill up.. they just keep raising the price until the toll is so high that there are no more takers.

    In the 91 Express Lane case – $10.00 is the TOP toll no matter what the congestion levels are instead of that price being able to float even higher – so as to maintain a 45mpg throughput.

    Express lane tolls have schedule prices based on the hours – and they can and do change them but not dynamically in response to real-time traffic conditions so there is no way they can respond to real-time conditions..

    Also in the 91 express lanes case – on a Friday at the height of rush hour – ALL of the lanes were maxed.

    this is not a flaw in tolling.

    this is simply the plain fact that there were far more cars than available road.

    Had there been dynamically-priced lanes – they would have been kept free-flowing… for a price.

    and that’s the basic problem that dynamically-priced lanes seek to address.. .. a limited availability of roadway relative to demand – and no reasonable, practical way to add capacity….

    HOT Lanes may or may not ultimately fail but they are an attempt to deal with the shortcomings of HOV, static tolling and express tolling.

    The “fall-back” from HOT lanes (since most ARE, in fact, PILOTs) might be worth considering.

    For instance, in Virginia, let’s assume they fail and Virginia gets the infrastructure back (for a price), then what?

    You could disable all the toll gantries… and make all the lanes available… but at what cost to air quality?

    At some point, let’s assume we have a bunch of plug-in electrics and air quality is no longer a limiting factor.

    Then what?

    With the advent of plug-in electrics and more fuel-efficient cars – you’ll also get your wish of no more money for VDOT without reforms.

    So.. you’ll have no more money for new roads… and more and more traffic.

    Then what?

    This is why I basically support the HOT Lanes.

    I do not see any other reasonable alternatives but if someone else see’s some … I’d certain reconsider my own position.

  45. If they are just “pilot” programs, why are they being pushed so hard? Why not stop and assess the existing programs before getting so gung-ho on them and signing away control for eighty years?

    E.g., as you mention, there’s a possibility of an expensive buy-back in case of failure. This happened with the 91 Express Lanes. FAILURE. But the toll pushers love to ignore that whole FAILURE bit. Two toll tunnels failed in Australia in the past two years as well. You never see that mentioned in Reason Foundation propaganda. Why not?

    “With the advent of plug-in electrics and more fuel-efficient cars….So.. you’ll have no more money for new roads… and more and more traffic.”

    While I don’t believe there will be much danger of plug-in cars any time in the next 20 years, let’s say it happens. Well, then you tax car registration on a quarterly basis. Or we stop pretending non-drivers exist and just pay for roads out of the general fund just like we make those who send their kids to private schools pay for public schools anyway. There’s no reason tolls would ever be required. It’s a medieval form of taxation that lost its usefulness at the end of the 19th Century.

    “and that’s the basic problem that dynamically-priced lanes seek to address.. .. a limited availability of roadway relative to demand – and no reasonable, practical way to add capacity….”

    This is their fatal flaw. Even with dynamic pricing, all you do is shift the congestion from one place to another. It’s not a solution to anything. It’s always possible to add capacity (in Virginia). The nitwits running the show would rather waste money on useless transit than get in a fight with the NIMBYs and environazis. Tolls are the lazy man’s solution.

    Except it’s not even a solution.

  46. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “….Well, then you tax car registration on a quarterly basis. Or we stop pretending non-drivers exist and just pay for roads out of the general fund..”

    aren’t you the one that says no more money without reform…?

    is that still your position?

    I don’t see how you reform the current paradigm where taxes are sent to Richmond and Washington – for folks who are not accountable to decide what to spend it on..

    isn’t that how the money currently gets spent on things you do not agree with?

    what kind of reform would it take to satisfy you enough to justify tax increases?

    now ask yourself just how realistic your approach is – in terms of being politically do-able.

    If you cannot get agreement on an approach.. the default is very likely going to be more toll roads.

    agree?

    this is basically what is going on nationally in more than half the states.

    They are out of road money .. can’t raise taxes… and now are looking at tolls roads.

    agree?

  47. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    If you take me as an example (which may not make any sense to some folks)…

    let’s assume that my attitude is not too different from the other 80% opposed to raising gas taxes (or any taxes) for roads.

    I don’t want to pay more taxes for roads as long as we have a system where that money goes off to a black hole where developers and economic development folks play a stronger role in prioritization of which roads to build than performance metrics like congestion relief, removing bottlenecks, etc.

    I think that is where quite a few folks are right now with regard to higher taxes for roads.

    And while I think there are some definite stinky aspects to toll roads – they have one big advantage.

    They don’t require a tax increase on me.

    So.. if you give me the choice between higher taxes that get spent in ways that I don’t agree with – and toll roads -I’ll take the toll roads – and no I especially have a preference on ownership either because toll roads run by the same folks who current spent tax money on roads doesn’t strike me as a benefit either.

    So.. for me .. it’s not about the merits.. pros/cons of toll roads – it’s about the merits, pros/cons of the current gas tax/transportation prioritization process – which I believe is broken –

    and even Bob agrees with this… but for some reason, Bob’s antidote to toll roads., is to revert back to the current process with “reforms”.

    My attitude is that as long as taxes are collected… sent away to a centralized bureaucracy where unelected and unaccountable (and often – unknown) people decide how to spend that money…

    and what I and many others often hear – is that a needed road.. or improvement on the roads that I drive on – is not going to happen for a decade,,, while some boondoggle road is fully funded…

    … well… I cannot imagine why Bob keeps talking about raising taxes for roads instead of more toll roads….

    ….. and least of all – NoVa folks of which Bob is a member.

    …why would NoVa folks want to pay more State gas taxes to send to Richmond and probably get only half of it back?

    I can almost understand the angst with the toll road concept but I totally cannot understand the proposed alternative which is to continue the current tax-funded process.

  48. “let’s assume that my attitude is not too different from the other 80% opposed to raising gas taxes (or any taxes) for roads.”

    We’ve already debunked your 80% figure. The opposition to toll roads is equal to the opposition of raising the gas tax in the CNU poll you cited a while back.

    “And while I think there are some definite stinky aspects to toll roads – they have one big advantage. They don’t require a tax increase on me.”

    Exactly. Don’t tax you, don’t tax me, tax that other guy behind that tree. That’s a horrible political philosophy.

    And if you think you won’t be paying for the HOT lane fiasco, think again. The added congestion will raise the cost of transport. That raises the cost of things you buy. Both the cost and the congestion effects will slow economic growth — and that will come back to hurt you, too.

    “I can almost understand the angst with the toll road concept but I totally cannot understand the proposed alternative which is to continue the current tax-funded process.”

    Fair point. It’s a desire not to feed the beast. Once we go down the road of selling-off infrastructure to foreigners game, there’s no turning back. Politicians will spend billions today that a child born today would be still paying back when he’s so old he’s retired. That’s a staggeringly evil concept.

    The alternative is reform. You seem to insist that reform is impossible. It’s not. All it takes is a house cleaning in the General Assembly or the election of a governor with the right vision. The abuser fee fiasco was the first time I’ve noticed the public waking up on these issues. I think HOT lanes will be the second.

  49. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    have you brought this study up ?

    “GAO Questions Wisdom of Public Private Partnerships
    Government Accountability Office testimony warns of need to better assess the true cost of privately operated toll roads.”

    http://www.thenewspaper.com/news/24/2484.asp

    Here’s the actual report:

    http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d081052t.pdf

    Actually, that’s the testimony.

    here’s the full report:

    http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0844.pdf

    Now here is the interesting part:

    Under Conclusions:

    “We provided copies of the draft report to DOT for comment prior to finalizing the report. DOT provided its comments in a meeting with the Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy and the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy on November 30, 2007.

    DOT raised substantive concerns with several of the draft report’s findings and conclusions, as well as one of the recommendations. Specifically, DOT commented that the

    draft report did not analyze the benefits of highway public-private partnerships in the context of current policy and traditional procurement approaches.

    For example, DOT asserted that the current federal-aid program

    (1) encourages the misallocation of resources,

    (2) does not promote the proper pricing of transportation assets, including the costs of congestion,

    (3) is not tied to achieving defined results and

    (4) provides weak incentives for innovation.

    DOT also stated that—in addition to supplying large amounts of additional capital to improve U.S. transportation infrastructure—public-private partnerships are responsive to a crisis of performance in government stewardship of the transportation network and traditional procurement approaches. DOT noted that highway public-private partnerships can bring discipline to the decision-making process, result in more efficient use of resources, and produce lower capital and operating costs, resulting in lower total costs of projects than under traditional public procurement approaches. DOT stated that traditional procurement approaches produce comparatively inferior results.

    Then this from the GAO (page 79):

    “We agree with DOT that highway public-private partnerships have the potential to provide many benefits and that a number of performance problems characterize the current federal-aid highway program. Our draft report discusses the potential benefits cited by DOT, although we revised our draft report to better clarify the potential benefits of pricing and resource efficiencies of highway public-private partnerships that DOT cited in its comments. However, we also believe that all the benefits DOT cited are potential benefits—they are not assured and can be achieved only through careful, comprehensive analysis to determine whether public-private partnerships are appropriate in specific circumstances and, if so, how best to structure them. Among the benefits that DOT cited was the ability of highway public-private partnerships to supply additional capital to improve transportation infrastructure. As our report states, this capital is not free money but is rather a form of privately issued debt that must be repaid to private investors seeking a return on their investment by collecting toll revenues.

    Regarding DOT’s comment about policy failures in the federal-aid highway program, we believe the most direct strategy to address performance issues is to reexamine and restructure the program considering such factors as national interests in the transportation system and specific performance-related goals and outcomes related to mobility.

    Such a restructuring would help

    (1) better align and allocate resources,

    (2) promote proper pricing,

    (3) achieve defined results, and

    (4) provide incentives for innovation.

    We believe our report places highway public-private partnerships in their proper context as viable potential alternatives that must be considered in such a reexamination and, therefore, made no further changes to the report.

    Now.. does the above dialogue sound a bit familiar?

    I think they pretty much nail some of the problems with toll roads (and I agree)…..

    but then they also basically take your position… i.e. reform the current system…

    .. which I have no confidence in..

    it appears to me that both tolls and taxes need reforms…

    .. and you’ve hit on the things that toll need to do to reform… but even with reform, you’d still be opposed….on the merits…

    but… I’ve not heard how we reform the tax system and for myself – no reforms or “fuzzy” ideas about reforms – mean no new taxes.

    show me the reforms.. and I’ll consider the taxes.. otherwise…no dice…

  50. That’s really harsh stuff from GAO. Usually, their stuff is a bit wishy-washy & designed not to offend anyone. Hadn't seen that back & forth. Ouch.

    "show me the reforms.. and I'll consider the taxes.. otherwise…no dice… "

    Our positions are merging ever more closely. My reforms would be the following:

    1. Constitutional amendment directing state and local car taxes to roads, roads, and nothing but roads. (Solves funding problem). Bob Marshall introduced an amendment that is close to this.

    2. Create a state auditor's office (if there isn't one already). Empower the auditor with a law mandating that objective congestion reduction criteria be applied to all uses of transportation funding. Measure everything. What works gets funded, what doesn't gets dropped. Washington state has an initiative on the November ballot to do this.

    3. Consider an elected commissioner of transportation. This would effectively take the transportation campaign issue away from the governor and make it a single-issue vote. Texas is considering this right now. Not necessarily a perfect solution, but it might help push Virginia in the right direction.

    4. Mandate that all the books be placed online, including every single contract that the state enters into. NYC does this — it's fantastic. Openness is good.

    5. Unless there's a compelling reason not to do so, turn over local road maintenance to local government. Having VDOT cut the grass in Fairfax County is quite silly. Every state in the country already does this.

    Give me #1-4 and I'll embrace higher taxes. But, guess what, with #1 and #2 you wouldn't need them.

    Honestly, if Virginia had a referendum process this would be easy. But I think a transportation disaster (HOT lanes) is needed to force the general assembly nitwits to act.

  51. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    you’re not going to be able to convince enough folks to support a high enough gas tax increase – to make a meaningful difference in what can be built in the future.

    that’s a reality.

    look at Virginia’s own numbers:

    one penny – statewide – will get you 60 million dollars.

    the current maintenance deficit is 200 million and growing.

    you cannot find more than single digit support for more than 5 cents.

    Virgina’s experience is being replicated virtually nationwide.

    Can you name a state that does not have a funding problem?

    This is not about making up the deficit by not spending money on museums and transit…and other “wasteful” things.

    It’s more about building roads and infrastructure NOT for congestion relief and performance improvements.

    DOTs like to build new roads and they hate retrofitting existing roads …fixing bottlenecks and rehabilitating infrastructure.

    Look at their track record on deficient bridges.

    It was never about “enough” money.

    It was and is always about how you prioritize existing money.

    Is it more important with your limited funds to fix a bridge or build a new interchange?

    and this is the problem in my mind when we talk about “reform”.

    Because we spend money NOT on where it is needed and our process for determining need is driven by development interests.. who basically see EXPANSION of the current system as more important than Preservation and improvement of the CURRENT system.

    Now, you probably differ.. and what this proves is that you and I do not agree on what higher taxes might be spend on – and so yes – I’ll not agree to higher taxes for the things you support – which are massive new asphalt to provide massive new capacity for urban rush hour infrastructure.

    My attitude is that if that is what you want – then you need to pay for it because I fundamentally disagree with that being the top “need” in our transportation system.

    but again.. how I feel is not your problem.

    The problem is that the amount of money actually said to be needed is far, far more than you’re going to convince folks to pay in higher taxes.

    They think you are talking about a few pennies. The reality is that the scope is more like 25 to 50 cents and your prospects for getting that kind of money from taxes is a snowball in hades.

    .. and that means.. this:

    you will be presented with this proposition:

    If you want the road in 5-10 years, it will be a toll road.

    If you want it from gas taxes, it will be 20-30 years.. or probably not in your lifetime.

    If you think I am wrong – take a look at Hampton Roads/Tidewater and tell me how they will build new bridges and tunnels …”without” tolls…

    should we “reform” the ways that tolls are done?

    of course we should – but reforming tolls on a per project basis is much more likely than trying to reform the gas-tax-funded transportation planning process.

    The guys in the GA – are the last guys in the world – who are willing, much less capable – of true transportation reform.

    All they are really capable of is not raising taxes that a majority of folks oppose – aka – the abuser fees.

    Who will you vote out of office for the HOT Lanes?

    This is my point.

    You don’t have a target to vote out of office because all the GA did was to NOT get involved in the HOT Lane enabling process.

    They, and your NoVa leaders basically stood back out of the way and let it happen.

    Who will you vote out of office and who will you vote into office to replace them and kill the HOT Lanes?

    See.. you say.. this is a “minor” problem that can be easily fixed.

    I don’t.

    The same folks who use your gas tax money to build transit, museums, roads that are not needed instead of roads that are –

    you do not elect them…

    and you cannot get rid of them by “unelecting” them either…

    the best way to deal with these folks is to deprive them of any more funding.. via gas tax increases.

    so.. you see.. our positions are not merging at all… there are much deeper divisions in the underlying philosophies.

  52. “one penny – statewide – will get you 60 million dollars. the current maintenance deficit is 200 million and growing.”

    So even by VDOT’s bogus numbers, the increase needs to be 4 cents. Um, that’s hardly a big deal with $4 gas.

    “Can you name a state that does not have a funding problem?”

    Yes. Texas claimed a $1b funding problem, then they got caught cooking the books. By $1b.

    “It was and is always about how you prioritize existing money.”

    100% agreed.

    “DOTs like to build new roads and they hate retrofitting existing roads …fixing bottlenecks and rehabilitating infrastructure.”

    Fixing bottlenecks is congestion reduction. Rehabilitating infrastructure is exactly the kind of thing you can do with objective performance standards. Allocate a certain % of funding to bring items back up to spec, starting at the bottom of the list. We might quibble on the split between repair and expansion, but it’s not a very fundamental difference.

    “Now, you probably differ.. and what this proves is that you and I do not agree on what higher taxes might be spend on – and so yes – I’ll not agree to higher taxes for the things you support – which are massive new asphalt to provide massive new capacity for urban rush hour infrastructure.”

    Fine, then you pay for your own transit boondoggles and we’ll both be happy. NOVA wins the parochialism game because NOVA has the cash. And, by the way, NOVA’s probablems extend far beyond rush hour. The “no new roads” philosophy has made it a miserable place to drive even on weekends.

    “but reforming tolls on a per project basis is much more likely than trying to reform the gas-tax-funded transportation planning process.”

    No. The problems are inherent in the tolling model. The long terms and non-compete agreements are fixable only by going to a non-profit route, but the massive inefficiency problem remains.

    “See.. you say.. this is a ‘minor’ problem that can be easily fixed.”

    Can you point out where I said the problem is minor? I believe my exact words were that it would take a disaster to force the change. Fortunately, we do have a disaster in the making.

    “Who will you vote out of office and who will you vote into office to replace them and kill the HOT Lanes?”

    Every single one of them; someone randomly selected out of the phonebook.

    “the best way to deal with these folks is to deprive them of any more funding.. via gas tax increases.”

    This is where you’re fundamentally wrong. Tolls feed these wasteful spenders. There’s no need to reform or conserve when you can “solve” problems with tolls. It will be even worse when the assembly gets into the infrastructure sell off game, which is the next move in the playbook.

  53. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “So even by VDOT’s bogus numbers, the increase needs to be 4 cents. Um, that’s hardly a big deal with $4 gas.”

    that would be maintenance ONLY – and it’s growing on the order of one to two cents a year….

    “Fine, then you pay for your own transit boondoggles and we’ll both be happy. NOVA wins the parochialism game because NOVA has the cash. And, by the way, NOVA’s probablems extend far beyond rush hour. The “no new roads” philosophy has made it a miserable place to drive even on weekends.”

    we have our own problems with the same issues… we have money going for projects that have little to do with need…. an upgraded interchange where one is not needed – instead of an interchange where one is needed…. a new 4-lane road where a 2-lane works fine while an expansion on an overstressed road is further delayed for a lack of money.

    and we cannot fix it – because the decisions are being made – not by elected officials – but VDOT career bureaucrats.

    Giving them more money means more projects not based on need.

    so.,. when you say.. raise the state gas tax – what I see is just more funding of a corrupt system that cannot be reformed….

    If… refusing higher taxes, results in toll road proposals…and we know there are problems…then at the least… the public gets to weigh in on a per road basis.

    They can demand a more open and transparent process for THAT road or they can raise heck about that road with their elected officials and have that road stopped.

    This is exactly what happened with the proposal to toll I-81.

    Even though.. it was being promoted by VDOT and other “unknown” supporters…. in the end.., the people raised so much heck about it that the elected officials shut it down.

    Now, we have a law that says that I-81 cannot be tolled without te approval of the GA.

    Perfect? Absolutely not… but had that been a gas-tax-funded proposal, VDOT would have rolled over the opposition…

    we can reform one tollroad at a time.

    HR/TW citizens can demand that any new tolls in that area be fair and open and transparent…or else they will have their elected shoot them down…

    but there is no hope in reforming how VDOT does business….

    give it up Bob…

    NoVa could have stopped the HOT Lanes if they were more involved in road decisions… and took it to their elected…like the folks on I-81 did…

    At least with a toll road proposal, you have something to focus on – with your elected officials… other roads… no matter whether they are the ones needed or not.. you have virtually no opportunity to affect….

    It’s hard to believe that most of NoVa stood by with their hands in their pockets while the HOT lanes went through a decade long approval process… so what I suspect is that most NoVa folks are not strongly opposed to it.. else they would have hammered their elected officials like the I-81 folks did and have it stopped.

    right?

  54. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Here Bob: here’s your reform:

    U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary E. Peters today announced a new plan from the Bush Administration to overhaul the way national transportation decisions and investments are made. “Reform is needed to address exploding highway congestion, rising fuel prices, unsustainable gas taxes and spending decisions based on political influence instead of merit, all of which are eroding confidence in government and threatening mobility, the economy and quality of life in America,” Peters says in a U.S. DOT summary document.
    Download the plan at:
    http://www.fightgridlocknow.gov/
    One page primer
    http://www.fightgridlocknow.gov/reform/reformoverview.htm

    check it out….

  55. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    oh.. and you oughta love this one Bob.

    This is what Mary Peters is talking about:

    http://www.fightgridlocknow.gov/reform/withoutreform.pdf

    she’s saying the same thing you are:

    128 different Federal programs to spend your gas tax money on…without your involvement…

    she wants to get rid of this…

    what do you think?

    here’s the make over:

    http://www.fightgridlocknow.gov/reform/withreform.pdf

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