Little Poquoson on The Peninsula is the first or second most Republican voting city of 134 cities and counties in the Commonwealth. In recent elections Poquoson keeps one of the top three highest per cent voter turn outs.
Our voter turn out was 62.44% (5270 voting out of 8440). Well above the State average.
We had a local race for city council and treasurer. That boosted turnout.
George Allen got 69.07% of the vote. He should have gotten 72 to 75% – at least. That means George didn’t get at least 154 to 293 votes that were his in the super safe Conservative city.
Rep. Jo Ann Davis got 78.80% of the vote. Jo Ann ran 481 votes ahead of George.
Marriage may have had a higher turn out 72.71% of the voters (6137 voting out of 8440). There is a discrepancy between the State Board of Elections (64.14% Yes of 5184 votes) and Daily Press (69.70% Yes of 6137 votes) numbers.
Using DP numbers, Yes for Marriage got 69.70% of the vote which is very close to Allen’s per cent. But, Yes ran 638 votes ahead of Allen and No ran 290 votes ahead of Webb.
Conversely, using SBE numbers Marriage ran behind Allen but No votes didn’t help Webb.
I conclude the Marriage Amendment didn’t boost Allen’s numbers in Poquoson.
So, what cost him?
I wrote in my blog, Deo Vindice, in September ( Friendly Note to George Allen/Thelma Drake: Elected Republicans Cost You Votes) about label fatigue for Republicans at the Federal level and in the Virginia General Assembly.
I have anecdotal evidence on where we lost from 150 to 480 votes in our Super ‘C’ city. Older retired military officers and younger defense engineers gave me an earful on why Rumsfeld should have been fired and, thus, Bush had screwed up prosecution of the War in Iraq.
Reliable Republicans, former dues paying partisans, told me that they were sick of the Repubicans at the Federal level doing nothing (and spending way too much) except two good SCOTUS appointments – and those were to be determined for their real future strength, a tax cut not made permanent, the lesser of two evils on the WW IV against Islamist Terrorism but making mistakes in Iraq…and Virginia Republicans in the General Assembly who raise our taxes and keep trying to cram Regional Governments down our throats.
A usually Republican voter, retired Air Force Officer and Vietnam Marine enlisted Vet, from my church told me last Sunday that Allen lost his vote when he brought up Webb’s writing. This guy said it was over reach, a sign of desperation, and just too much mud. Perhaps, the paid, professional analysts can show me that the loss of his one vote was offset by gaining other votes I don’t know about. My evidence is anecdotal purely. My experience tells me that each contact I have living in grassroots politics is indicative of more votes.
Before the election I didn’t know that these reasons and others actually would take the 3 to 6 % and corresponding 150-481 votes from Allen. Apparently, Larry Sabato did when he called Virginia for Webb.
The Conservative votes lost to Allen and gained by Jo Ann Davis show that in our microcosm there isn’t an ideological shift. We haven’t morphed Liberal.
Every election is about candidate, issues and campaign. Need all three to be right to win.