Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Coming to an Interstate Near You

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by

James A. Bacon
in

The most important change in Virginia’s transportation policy may be occurring right before our eyes, and we don’t even see it. In typical fashion, the Mainstream Media writes about the individual trees but fails to see the forest. The general public is even more myopic.

But 50 years from now, when some historian chronicles the evolution of Virginia’s transportation policy, the most significant development of the 2000s won’t be the construction of the Springfield Bypass, or the house-cleaning of VDOT finances, or even the Comprehensive Transportation Funding and Reform Act of 2007. It will be the introduction of congestion pricing to Northern Virginia’s major transportation arteries.

There is a grand strategy, and Secretary of Transportation Pierce Homer is the architect. Look at a map of Northern Virginia. There are four major transportation corridors: the Interstate 495 Beltway, Interstates 95/295, Interstate 66, and the Dulles Toll Road. As Bacon’s Rebellion intern Lyle Solla-Yates writes in “Coming to an Interstate Near You,” variable-pricing HOT lanes are planned for the Beltway and I-95/395. Limited service could begin as early as late next year.

But that’s not all. Virginia’s HOT lanes will dovetail with Beltway HOT lanes planned in Maryland. Variable pricing also could be coming to the Dulles Toll Road, and Homer confirms that congestion pricing on the I-66 corridor is in the early stages of discussion. In each case (in Virginia at least), the HOT lane projects will be financed and administered by public-private partnerships. The tolls will add new capacity, and in the case of 95/395 will support Bus Rapid Transit.

Congestion tolls are the future of transportation. They are more than a tool for financing the expansion of transportation capacity: they simultaneously modulate demand. By using the price mechanism to allocate scarce rush-hour roadway capacity, they encourage drivers to seek alternatives — shifting their commuting schedules, changing routes, telecommuting, ride sharing, taking mass transit or pursuing other options.

Virginia needs to upgrade its transportation network, but the state cannot afford to accommodate every uptick in potential demand. We need a transportation system that addresses both the supply and demand sides of the equation. HOT lanes do that, and Pierce Homer will be remembered as the man who championed them.

It’s a shame that the public understanding of Virginia’s grand strategy is so limited because important issues are going unexplored. As huge a fan as I am of congestion pricing, I do have concerns: To what extent will HOT lanes open up new frontiers for real estate development? Will they act as an accelerant to “sprawl” (scattered, disconnected, low-density development) or as a retardant? How expensive will it be to upgrade the winding country roads serving that new development, and who will pay for it? I don’t know the answers. Nobody does.

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20 responses to “Coming to an Interstate Near You”

  1. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    What we should all find interesting for the current

    SAFETEA-LU
    Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient, Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users

    is that it envsioned, promoted and seed-funded HOT lane pilots:

    http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/safetealu/factsheets.htm

    The “Grand Strategy” for Virginia, is, is fact, part of a Federal vision also.

    It’s safe to say that HOT lanes are a work in progress – perhaps even correctly thought of as “experimental” not on concept but on implementation.

    It’s pretty clear that the Feds think that the future of major new roads will move away from fuel tax funding… and the reasons why are clear – fuel will not get cheaper in the future – and the more expensive it gets – the less will be used.. and if you raise the taxes on it – you only accelerate efforts to use even less of it.

    Increased taxes on fuel will function just like increased costs on fuels.

    But I do have a question for those concerned about investor-roads, sprawl, et al.

    If a consortium of developers proposed a large community on the scale of 5-10,000 people… totally mixed-use and a key part of the proposal was a TOLL road that connected the development to say I-95 or Rt-288 and the toll proceeds would be used to promote HOV and Congestion Management – why would that be a wrong direction?

    The article in this mornings Richmond Times Dispatch pointed out how a road is cheaper if a developer builds it – simply because the developer is going to do it post-haste while VDOT will fumble around for a decade waiting for funds… and in the process watch the cost of the road escalate.

    What is wrong with BIG developments that include both mixed-use AND connecting TOLL roads?

  2. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    By using the price mechanism to allocate scarce rush-hour roadway capacity, they encourage drivers to seek alternatives — shifting their commuting schedules, changing routes, telecommuting, ride sharing, taking mass transit or pursuing other options – like moving away.

  3. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    “..pointed out how a road is cheaper if a developer builds it – simply because the developer is going to do it post-haste while VDOT will fumble around for a decade waiting for funds…”

    And whose fault is that? If the developer can do it because he can see the money, why can’t the state?

  4. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    I’m posting this comment on the behalf of Carter Melton, CEO of Rockingham Memorial Hospital in Harrisonburg. JAB

    Over the years I have had to make numerous trips to Washington on business. Over the last 8-10 years, the traffic on 66 is so unpredictable that I generally go up on one day and stay overnight in order to be there on time for appointments, etc.

    Here is how I would value a congestion toll:

    A). If I have to spend an extra half day on the road just because of traffic congestion, that’s work I have to make up when returning to the Hospital… translation: one more weekend day away from recreation and family. Value: priceless

    B). One overnight stay in a Washington hotel. Value: twenty-seven gazillion dollars at today’s room rates and probably a fitful night’s sleep on a strange bed

    C). Increased risk of heart attack or stroke from increasing anxiety over getting to town “on time”. Value: priceless

    So what would it be worth to me as an individual to quickly transit 66 into and out of Washington? A heck of a lot more than a $5-$10 congestion toll.

    For everything else, I guess there’s MasterCard.

  5. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “..And whose fault is that? If the developer can do it because he can see the money, why can’t the state?”

    because the State .. REACTS whereas the developer is being PROACTIVE.

    The state cannot possibly know where developments will be proposed and even when they do know… there are other roads already on the list that have already spoken for the taxes.

    The only way for VDOT to do what the developer is doing would be to attempt to collect for the road infrastructure – up front – before the development is built.

    Now.. I don’t know about you – but for me.. I think giving that money to VDOT up front would be sending that money on a fools errand…

    not to say anything about your views about collecting infrastructure money – “up front”..

    🙂

  6. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Carter Melton makes a good point: it would be worth it to him.

    But it begs the question of whether congestion pricing is good for all of us, or just for more hims.

    What if he’s right and we all think it is a good thing, and worth it to pay? Won’t that just overrun the HOT lanes, same as any other lane? Or does it mean we would have plenty of money to build infinite roads?

    Somehow I don’t think so, so the result will be premium access for some, and the same old slog for everyone else and a net total congestion still the same. HOT lanes can’t be the answer, but they will encourage people to go someplace else. Whether that is a sprawl inducer or not, is an open question.

    ——————————–

    Poor VDOT can’t win. If they are proactive they are guiding development and feeding the developers. Well, that’s one way to link transportation and land use, anyway.

    If they are not proactive they are wasting our money by not spending it soon enough.

    And yet, we have the best road network in the world, somehow.

    My question was why can’t the state be proactive? Apparently they think we don’t want to spend the money, but we will if it is for HOT lanes. So of the developer can see the money and the state can see the money, then where is it?

    Recently three of us were collaborating ona problem in one office. The boss came by and joked “One working and two watching.”

    In unison, three heads came up and said “VDOT”.

    Pretty scary.

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I am wary of the devil in the details aspects to all of these proposals

    My main concerns are the chokepoints. What is going to happen at the American Legion Bridge and the 14th street bridge when you have 6 lanes (or more) having to squeeze back down to 4.

    Unless these chokepoints are addressed a good idea will lead to disaster. Examples of current disasters include the HOV merge on 1-95 South, the Woodrow Wilson Bridge (which will be thankfully fixed when the new span opens) The current American Legion bridge when there is only a difficuly merge (Backups are twice as bad and its the summertime)

    Another example is the new problem on I-95 South when you have the untangled mixing bowl (up to 7 lanes) slamming on the brakes as I-95 goes back down to four lanes. We moved the congestion two miles further down the road.

    And lastly, I-66 which I would argue is the worst performing interstate in the region is not even scheudled for HOT lanes in the near future.

    I do agree that HOT lanes are the future bue we have to be careful and do our best to keep the total amount of lanes at a constant rate.

    NMM

  8. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Not so fast.

    “Lawmakers on Monday shelved Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s plan to charge a fee to drivers entering the busiest parts of Manhattan, dealing a setback to the mayor as he tries to raise his national profile and promote his environmental initiatives.”

    New York Times.

  9. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    If time has proven anything it’s proven that politicians cannot be trusted. There are trustworthy individuals but politicians are not trustworthy as a group.

    The tolls on the Dulles toll road were supposed to pay for the road. Now the tolls are collected to pay for a questionable Metro extension.

    Q: Whatever happened to the original idea of collecting the tolls just long enough to pay for the road?

    A: Politicians.

    Politicians pervert everything they touch.

    The congestion tolls will be no exception.

    In short order there will be surcharges and taxes on the tolls to pay for who knows what.

    When you open a door that lets politicians take more of your money they will take more and more and more.

    This is just another door.

    Will this encourage suburban sprawl?

    You can bet on it.

    When Spotsylvania County is consistently 45 minutes away from Tyson’s Corner there will be a run on new $700,000 single family houses in Spotsy. And people who can afford $700,000 houses will shell out $15 each way to make sure their commute is 45 minutes.

    $30 / day * 250 workdays / year = $7,500 / year.

    And for that you can live in a 6,000 sq ft house on an acre in Spotsy instead of a 3,500 sq. ft. house on 1/3 acre in Vienna.

    Cheap at twice the price.

    Of course, if you can’t afford the $30 / day well … no one ever promised you a rose garden.

    Just stare out the window of your car and watch the Lexi whiz by.

  10. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    In “theory”, the money from HOT lane tolls WOULD be plowed back into improvements especially at the choke points.

    That’s why I have the opinion that it is a bit of an experiment in implementation and yes.. the whole thing could turn to crap…and lose the public’s trust…

    Conceptually, It’s an opportunity to not only specify ways to alieviate chokepoints but to actually have the funding available to do them in a timely manner.

    In practice, it could turn out ugly with political wrangling and skulldugery to grab those funds for other purposes.

    and yes.. New York voted down Bloomberg’s plan to use cordon tolls in NYC. (Note again, that the Feds SAFETEA had offered money for the first city to “try” a cordon toll.

    Perhaps Tysons or Alexandria could do a cordon TOLL for their TOD .
    😉

  11. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    …”And people who can afford $700,000 houses will shell out $15 each way to make sure their commute is 45 minutes.”

    agree… no contest…

    what will people do? .. I predict that carpooling, slugging, van and bus riding will become the typical daily commute with those whose time is very valuable and those who absolutely positively must be at a meeting.. etc.. will pay the toll.

    No.. people will never use transit to visit Grandma at Thanksgiving or Myrtle Beach for summer bliss – but for the average person commuting every day 8 hours a day 5 days a week to a job.. carrying only a briefcase/laptop rather than a kayak or family dog… in an SUV – but commuting in a shared vehicle is not the end of the world as we know it.

    What the politicians do with the money is worth worrying about… an elected transportation authority would have been better…

    and yes.. the whole idea of EZPass tolls and HOT lanes could well go up in flames if the politicians do their typical pro forma behavior..

    That is what killed the NYC Cordon Toll – at the end of the day – citizens did not trust the politicians to “do it right”.

    HOT lanes could go down the tubes here in NoVa.. quite easily if they follow the Dulles example.

  12. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    The state will need the money from tolls to fund the giveaway contract for constructing Phase I of Dulles Rail. If we can afford to pour billions into a rail line that won’t relieve traffic congestion, why do we need any tax or fee increases?

  13. Jim Wamsley Avatar
    Jim Wamsley

    “But I do have a question for those concerned about investor-roads, sprawl, et al.

    If a consortium of developers proposed a large community on the scale of 5-10,000 people… totally mixed-use and a key part of the proposal was a TOLL road that connected the development to say I-95 or Rt-288 and the toll proceeds would be used to promote HOV and Congestion Management – why would that be a wrong direction?”

    I think it could be the right direction. I just doubt that an investor would propose it.

  14. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Good points all.

    I just don’t trust politicians.

    Maybe that’s what I get for being born in DC and growing up in the Washington area.

    Give me some guarantees that the congestion tolls will be used to allieviate congestion and I’m in.

    I could live with an amendment to the Virginia Constitution.

    Not foolproof but good enough for me.

  15. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    I note last night that Stafford county passed a TND (Traditional Neighborhood Development) Zoning category.

    There’s been a pretty good dust-up leading up to the vote with a good number of folks on both sides.

    What I get out of it is that it’s possibly TND in sheeps clothing…

    The local paper described it thus:

    “The measure will allow communities that blend residential and commercial development concentrated at major transportation hubs. It would consist of walk-able, town-style neighborhoods with narrow streets, clustered buildings and various housing types such as apartments, townhouses and single-family homes.”

    http://fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2007/072007/07182007/301193

    There is disagreement about what was referred to as the “Smart Code” and also with respect to tying approval of such a development to a set-aside of equivalent rural land.

    Some folks might ask – “what the heck does TND have to do with HOT Lanes?”

    go back to the TND part that says: “…
    concentrated at major transportation hubs.” and then recall that Stafford county is a favorite bedroom community for NoVa-bound commuters.

    You could talk about Richmond or even TW/HR in the same breath though.

    It’s the same deal.. urban job cores and commuting spokes to bedroom communities – which can be in two flavors – multi-acre rural “sprawl”-type homes and compact development, multi-use developments of which TND probably fairly represents if nothing else a generic version.

    Someone speculated that a one-way $15 toll will not stop.. probably will not even slow down such multi-use commuter-oriented developments.

    I concur.

    Until something fairly drastic happens… I think we are probably looking at the next 10-20 years worth of settlement patterns… around areas like NoVa.

    Outlying commuter=oriented mixed-use developments.. connected by HOT lanes to NoVa and environs.

    we may well see these developments connected to interstate-grade roads via investor-built interchanges or 4-lane parkways connecting to the existing arterial interchanges – as the one just proposed in Chestfield seeks to do.

  16. Jim Wamsley Avatar
    Jim Wamsley

    I don’t see a requirement for balancing housing and employment. As I said before, “I think it could be the right direction. I just doubt that an investor would propose it.”

    Here it is the Stafford County Board of Supervisors who seem to have it wrong.

  17. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: balanced employment

    what spec would be used?

    would the development itself have to provide the jobs?

    would the jobs need to be from an inscribed NUR that contained the development?

    next question: what mods would have to be written to the Stafford TND zoning to provide “balance”?

    This is the part where I’m asking EMR how we get from where we are right now to where NUR would have us.

    What would we advocate for in Stafford?

  18. Jim Wamsley Avatar
    Jim Wamsley

    Larry:
    The easiest way to think about balanced employment is the number of cars leaving Stafford on I-95 to get to work is equal to the number of cars coming to work in Stafford on I-95.

  19. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Then the answer is clear.

    Rural “by-right” (sprawl) development is a lesser evil than multi-use development (without jobs balance) because it’s only 1/10th as dense and ultimately it is limited as the road that service the rural areas can no longer handle the flows at rush hour.

    When places like Stafford and Chesterfield approve multi-use developments near transporation hubs – they are not …”re-using” existing infrastructure by re-developing “infill” – they are instead, allocating water/sewer, road money, and schools, ems, libraries, etc… for the sole purpose of providing residential.

    The commercial aspect of such developments is not job-producing – instead it’s just another method of collecting taxes to help offset the residential-imposed costs.

    In other words – mixed-use residential does not even break-even on costs with a commercial component.

    So the question comes up again.

    What is the BENEFIT of greenfield mixed-use developments to an exurban jurisdiction when the majority of residents in that mixed-use commute to an external job?

    Why should Stafford, or Chesterfield or any locality approve such proposals?

  20. FW Avatar
    FW

    Jim wrote, “The easiest way to think about balanced employment is the number of cars leaving Stafford on I-95 to get to work is equal to the number of cars coming to work in Stafford on I-95.”

    Is that what we really want, dysfunctional congestion and long distance commuting in both directions?

    The problem with all of these plans for balanced alpha communities is that at the end of the day you cannot tell people they have to work within x miles of where they live. A lot of people are going to commute in and out of these new developments.

    Does this not just cause more of the “autonomobility” that Risse decries?

    Tolls at least mean the pockets of non-commuters will not be picked to subsidize commuters.

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