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CNU Polls — Post-Trump Shift Happening in Virginia

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

by Chris Saxman

Folks, we have a ball game in Virginia.

Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center released another poll today and VPM’s headline captured the catnip as their headline writer wrote, “New Virginia Poll Shows Support for Progressive Ideas, but Not Labels.” It should have read “Virginians are centrists but like free stuff.”

In that VPM report (VPM is PBS/NPR’s new label – irony noted) is this quote from CNU’s Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo:

“Americans as a whole tend to lean conservative in their ideology,” Bromley-Trujillo said. “And this usually is kind of based on broad values, like liberty or small government. But when you get into specific policy proposals, then you see more support for Democratic policies.”

This is not new. This is also why we put the Iraq and Afghanistan wars on our kids’ credit cards. This is also why we fight incessantly over health care — everyone wants Mayo Clinic level care on their street corner, but no one wants to pay for it.

Oh no? Disagree?

Q1 – how long would you stay at a wedding reception that was Cash Bar?

Q2 – how excited would you be for opening your presents on Christmas morning if you had to pay for them?

Answers – Q1 – not long; Q2 – not as much.

I did a full on pre-dawn Nerd Dive into the other questions CNU asked to verify my observations that Virginia is a much different state/Commonwealth politically with Donald Trump no longer tweeting behind the Resolute Desk.

Cue ABC’s Keith Jackson’s WHOA NELLY! :

Back in their February poll, CNU showed that Virginia was 47 to 42 Center Right over Center Left, but the brand of the Center Right party – the Republicans – was much further to the Right than the Democrats were to the Left. #MisAlignment #Losing #ModerateDemocratsWinning

Today’s poll has it at 50-42 Center Right over Center Left or a +3 move to the Center Right Losing Party.

In February, the party Self ID was:

Democrat – 38

Republican – 25

Independent – 34.

Today, the party Self ID is:

Democrat – 29 (down 9)

Republican – 27 (up 2)

Independent – 38 (up 4)

When you throw in Leaning Democratic and Leaning Republican, here’s what you get:

February

Democrat – 49 (+12)

Republican – 37

Independent – 15

Today

Democrat – 44 (+2)

Republican – 42

Independent – 11

Wow – so it’s closed that much in just three months? Nope.

It closed that much in just one month.

Wait. February was three months ago, what gives?

Well, when you read the actually polling dates you find that the May release was conducted in early MARCH not May!

Making sure this wasn’t an error, I texted CNU’s Quentin Kidd for verification.

The poll released today was, in fact, conducted in early March.

Recall the November election results:

Joe Biden +11

Mark Warner +12

Cong. Jennifer Wexton (VA10) + 13

Cong. Abigail Spanberger (VA7) +5.5

Cong. Elaine Luria (VA2) +1.8

CNU’s November 2020 poll went Democrats/Republicans/Independents 45-30-25.

Trump lost 55-44, Dems +11 with local candidates slightly leading the ballot.

January 6th then Inauguration Day.

Poll 1 early February, Dems +12

Poll 2 early March, Dems +2

Here’s how CNU had it the week before election day in 2013.

McAuliffe +7 or 45-38

Northam +16 or 51-35

Herring +2 or 45-43

Here’s how that ended:

McAuliffe +2.5 or 47.7 to 45.2

Northam +10.6 or 55.1 to 44.5

Herring +0.01 or 49.88 to 49.87

Today it is 44-42. Can you say Status Quo Ante?

With Donald Trump gone, the political tide has shifted here in Virginia, but we still like free stuff.

And just like that, we have a ball game here in the Commonwealth.

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22 responses to “CNU Polls — Post-Trump Shift Happening in Virginia”

  1. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I think folks might be fooling themselves on the “free stuff” thing. Most folks realize these things do cost money. People DO PAY for Obamacare – and what the GOP offers is to essentially take it away all together. That’s a political FAIL especially in Virginia when you add in the Medicaid Expansion.

    Most folks who pay property taxes KNOW how much the schools do cost – in most cases, it’s more than 1/2 their total tax bill.

    No one likes taxes but they know that they fund the services and infrastructure they want and need.

    Most folks KNOW that highways are NOT “free” everytime they pay for fuel and tolls.

    schools, roads, public safety, health care – not “free”, people know this.

    The Conservative folks who run for office just have trouble admitting that people want these things AND that they KNOW they cost money.

    1. tmtfairfax Avatar
      tmtfairfax

      Larry, the disconnection is the failure of the polls to ask how much more would you be willing to pay for X, Y or Z. Or to get A, would you be willing to give up B?

      Don’t tax me; don’t tax thee. Tax that fellow behind the tree.

      Fairfax County ran a survey on climate change and related environmental issues. It was a good survey because it asked about how much more would one pay for X or would you be willing to give up A to get B. The results were such that large majorities were in favor of reducing the emissions of greenhouse gasses, renewable energy, fewer chemicals from runoff. But very few people were willing to pay more or make tradeoffs.

      Everyone likes the Marine Corps. But not that many people enlist, especially in time of war. As my Uncle said, I was too young and too dumb to realize what I signed up for. The realities of several beach landings and two Japanese bullets were quite different from the picture he had in his mind when he enlisted.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I actually agree with you about the polls but I also think if you went deeper and played the money against what was provided – many would still want to pay to get the benefit.

        Most folks, for instance, support Medicare and Social Security even though they know it costs FICA taxes and income taxes. they want both.

        Most folks in NoVa know that schools cost an arm and a leg in property taxes but is there a big uprising against it? No?

        Most folks know that Obamacare and Medicaid cost taxes but they want people who work to be treated fairly on health insurance.

        Conservatives are myopic about this. They have one view about it and cannot imagine how others feel.

        You want tolls on all roads instead of fuel taxes? That would be pay-as-you-go – i.e. pay for what you use. Not even Conservatives like that idea.

    2. John Harvie Avatar
      John Harvie

      “I think folks might be fooling themselves on the “free stuff” thing. Most folks realize these things do cost money.”

      Disagree. Bet you more than half think “I” don’t have to pay for it since the “government” will pay for it.

      You need to include those that are poorly educated, don’t read newspapers, and who get all their information in quickie sound bites or sound bytes.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Yep – all the ones that vote Dem or ignorant or easily misled and all the ones that vote GOP are believers of the truth from on high.

        Got it!

        Stop the Steal!

    3. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      “People DO PAY for Obamacare …”

      Well, I do. Every time a sell a share at a profit I pay. I pay a surcharge of 3.8% on top of the existing 20% capital gains tax.

      Larry is right about “free stuff”. It should really be “stuff for me paid for by others”.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Congrats. DJ is one of the few folks who know how Obamacare and the Medicaid Expansion is actually paid for.

        But no – why shouldn’t you pay the same rate for capital gains that regular work a day people pay for their wages? Why should you pay less?

    4. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Just like with the proposed gasoline carbon tax I’ve polled more than once now. Tell ’em it saves the planet? Sure…. Tell ’em the gas tax goes up 30 cents a gallon? Hell no….

      But what Biden is doing is claiming it can be paid for by taxing that fellow behind the tree, the elusive “rich” who have the best ability to avoid, evade or just freaking move…

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        We’ll see if the real number is 30 cents. Conservatives have been known to “inflate” stuff, you know.

        I think you may underestimate for the folks that think the planet is really imperiled – what some are willing to do.

        If it’s 30 cents a gallon but the car gets 40-50 then what is the real increase?

  2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    It’s absolutely free money.
    And money talks: it makes people accept ideas and risks.
    We should give money for getting COVID shots, and allow repeat visits. Suddenly the shot-less naysayers would get many shots.

    What is stupid, is that the Repubs in Senate/Congress gave the election away rather than spread money around, that was obviously going to to go progressive causes if the Repubs did not act.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Well, what is stupid is politicians who hew to ideological beliefs rather than actually represent voters… on issues that are important to them – like health care.

  3. William O'Keefe Avatar
    William O’Keefe

    As Milton Friedman famously said, “There is no such thing as a free lunch.” Knowing that and believing it when the government is giving so much “away” and putting in a future generations credit card is the equivalent of a free lunch.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      Of course it is. However, the Republicans seem to have lost their interest in fiscal responsibility as much as the Democrats have.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Indeed, not a penny was paid for in the Trump tax cuts – ALL of it is deficit spending but no matter, the GOP is staunchly defending it and claiming it’s the Dems who want deficit spending even though Biden claims he’s taxing to pay for his programs.

        The GOP don’t want to tax but more than willing to give away “free” tax cuts… and side with a cult leader spewing nonsense and dump GOP reps that want to tell the truth.

        We’re in a mell of a hess… GOPers can’t and won’t deal with truth and reality.

        1. Matt Hurt Avatar
          Matt Hurt

          Larry, have you ever read one of those God awful omnibus spending bills, you know the ones that are thousands of pages long?

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Matt – I have not recently. I KNOW it’s sausage! But I do pay attention to whether it is paid for with taxes or added to the debt!

            But most folks KNOW that things like schools and roads and law enforcement and health care are not “free”.

            However, most folks never take a look at how much they pay in property taxes verses how much it actually costs to educate their kids.

            It takes way, way more than just their property taxes, right?

          2. Matt Hurt Avatar
            Matt Hurt

            Neither has any Democrat or Republican. They all just look at the optics of how their vote would be interpreted by a significant enough portion of their constituents and vote accordingly. They don’t even concern themselves with how the sausage is made.

      2. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        “Republicans seem to have lost their interest in fiscal responsibility as much as the Democrats have.”

        When, pray tell, did this difference in the interest in fiscal responsibility exist? I’ll settle for any two-year period since 1955.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Well, the GOP has never met a Defense budget, they did not love , no matter whether it added to the deficit/debt or not even as they argue to cut Medicare because it adds to the deficit/debt.

          Optics they say.

          boomergeddon…

          soon… China will own our fiscal butts because they have bought our treasury notes and will soon cash them in… OMG – the sky is falling – oh wait, the climate thing is a myth…. oh well…. anyhow… really bad stuff is going to happen if we continue to have deficits.. we’ve known this for…. uh… 50 or more years…

          😉

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            They have their answer to the DoD expenditures… DUAL USE. A belief that, like NASA, military developments will eventually enter the marketplace. Hard to argue, look at all of the assault style weapons in gun shows.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Well, ALL tax money finds it’s way back into the economy whether it be for companies that build drones or Hospitals that sell x-rays.

            But… probably not good policy to borrow money for continuing expenses rather than one-time costs.

            But now , we know that Medicare is ALSO “infrastructure” – just the human kind..

  4. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    All of this talk about sausage. I must have ground a million pounds of sausage at Alvey’s Store in Catharpin, Virginia. The key is the correct blend of lean pork and fat scraps. Next and most important is the grind. A little science to this; sort of like Starbucks. Finally. It will never come out right unless you use a generous helping of this:
    https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/spQAAOSwcp9euuFA/s-l300.jpg

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