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Charts of the Day: Teacher Vacancies

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James A. Bacon
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by James A. Bacon

The teacher shortage at Virginia’s public schools is getting worse. School divisions report 4,304 unfilled positions in the 2023-24 school year, according to a recent report by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC). Out of a teacher workforce of about 87,000, the creates an average statewide vacancy rate of 4.8%.

The shortages are not evenly distributed, however, as seen in the table below.

Vacancy rates in predominantly Black school districts are the highest. In Danville public schools, an astonishing two out of five positions are vacant. By contrast, at least ten districts report 0% vacancies.

The problem in a nutshell is that teachers are leaving faster than they can be replaced. The deficit between newly licensed teachers and those leaving the profession was running about 1,250 annually before the pandemic. Now the gap is more than 5,000 a year.

Why the surge? JLARC highlights the following motivations:


JLARC elaborates as follows:

  • Classroom environment: A more challenging student population, including behavior issues (56 percent indicated this was a very serious issue), student anxiety and mental health (43 percent), and higher workload because of unfilled vacancies (40 percent);
  • Compensation: lower than desired salary given the demands of the profession (51 percent);
  • Outside the classroom: lack of respect from parents and the public (47 percent).

The Youngkin administration has tried to expand the talent pipeline to recruit teachers from non-traditional pathways. While that strategy has increased the number of warm bodies in teacher seats, there is a widespread sentiment in school districts that non-traditional teachers are less prepared — although they can gain competency over time.

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14 responses to “Charts of the Day: Teacher Vacancies”

  1. Kevin Brown Avatar
    Kevin Brown

    What is coincidentally going on at private schools?

  2. Nathan Avatar
    Nathan

    “The Youngkin administration has tried to expand the talent pipeline to recruit teachers from non-traditional pathways. While that strategy has increased the number of warm bodies in teacher seats, there is a widespread sentiment in school districts that non-traditional teachers are less prepared — although they can gain competency over time.”

    Perception vs reality?

    In mathematics, we find teachers who have a standard certification have a statistically significant positive impact on student test scores relative to teachers who either hold private school certification or are not certified in their subject area. Contrary to conventional wisdom, mathematics and science students who have teachers with emergency credentials do no worse than students whose teachers have standard teaching credentials.

    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.3102/01623737022002129

    1. Not Today Avatar
      Not Today

      Those who gain emergency credentials and have background in the subject will do well. Those who don’t…wont.

  3. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    Restoring a positive learning climate will retain current staff longer and bring in some new help. Nothing wrong with student’s bearing afflictions needful rod. Clear boundaries and firm consequences can do wonders.

  4. Kathleen Smith Avatar
    Kathleen Smith

    There is another statistic that is directly related to the teacher shortage that we know nothing about: How has the number of first-year principals changed over the same time period of your teacher shortage chart above? (2015-2023)

    I would hypothesize it has incrementally grown at the same rate. This matters in that first-year principals are not really tuned to what needs to be done to retain teachers. They have a difficult time keeping their heads above water.

    In some counties, first-year principals have never been assistant principals as smaller schools, elementary, usually, only have a principal. So they are moving from the classroom to the principalship. Results are even worse if they are in the same school that they taught.

    Many first year principals from last year may be back in the classroom this year (this is what superintendents are reporting.) The work is not what was expected and life choices (# of hours worked as a principal) are more important than a leadership position.

    We need data on first-year principals as well as overall principal retention. Just as teachers are leaving, principals are too. All of the research points to how leadership matters most in education.

    1. Not Today Avatar
      Not Today

      1st year principals are directly tied to AMBITION and pay. People seeking those roles do so because they pay better and, even with minimal classroom experience, benefit those with high parent satisfaction/test scores.

  5. UVAPast Avatar
    UVAPast

    Should administrators move into teaching positions? Lower overhead and lower busy work?

  6. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    It’s global y’all. Can’t fix Virginia’s shortage in a vacuum.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Indeed, at least with regards to the US (Europe might be doing better, Asia). The high value and respect the profession once enjoyed here is gone. Neither of our kids followed their mother (and grandmother, great grandmother, great grandfather) into teaching. Good question about the privates. They sometimes pay better, but they sometimes recruit teachers by offering their children slots in the school. Often a huge draw.

      1. Nathan Avatar
        Nathan

        “The high value and respect the profession once enjoyed here is gone.”

        Teacher unions have had more than a little to do with that. Their posture during the pandemic was especially telling.

        Most citizens object to public employees being paid to not do their jobs. That’s even more true when the job entrusted to them is the education of their children.

        Many teachers across the state and country did not agree with the closing of schools during the pandemic, but I believe it hurt the perception of teachers as a whole.

  7. Lefty665 Avatar
    Lefty665

    As us boomers age out of teaching careers that 15% will likely grow as the pig exits the python.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      Boomers are already gone except for a few who are either institutionalized or lifers. It will take miracles to hang onto Gen X. The front of that group is already eligible for VRS.

  8. Matt Hurt Avatar
    Matt Hurt

    Years ago when I began teaching, there was a line of fully licensed prospective teachers that vied for every teaching opening. This is no longer the case, and the reasons are certainly numerous. There are some things that can be done in each school to help retain teachers (such as improving school culture and climate where needed- most schools), but that can’t bring folks into the profession.

    There is a tight labor market out there today, and the folks who in the past would have gone into public education have many other, more lucrative options than becoming a teacher. If we want to bring more folks into the field, the incentives must be improved.

    As was discussed last year, Virginia is the most negative outlier on the average household income/average teacher salary metric in the state. This is also true when you control for the average cost of living in each state.
    https://www.baconsrebellion.com/teacher-shortage-and-no-end-in-sight/

    Despite the 5% raise last year, the 5% raise this year, and the 2% raise that will be applied after Christmas, teachers can buy less at Walmart than the could before those raises due to inflation. While some raise is better than none, if we want to entice more teachers into the field, the General Assembly could apply some of the project five BILLION dollar surplus to make this happen. Otherwise, the rate of teachers leaving the field will stay ahead of the rate of teachers coming into the field- simple economics.

  9. killerhertz Avatar
    killerhertz

    This is great news!

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