Category: Demographics
-
Virginia: Still More People Leaving than Coming
by James A. Bacon The net out-migration of Virginian taxpayers continued in 2018, extending a six-year trend and contributing to the slowest rate of population growth in Virginia since the 1920s when African-Americans were fleeing the state’s oppressive Jim Crow laws. If there’s a silver lining to the data published by the University of Virginia…
-
Bacon Bits: Wild and Crazy Edition
First the wild… The Virginia state Senate passed a bill, SB 657, earlier this week that would allow a person who changed his or her sex to have a new birth certificate issued, reports the Associated Press. Sen. Jennifer Boysko, D-Fairfax, who sponsored the bill, says transgendered constituents have reported issues when leasing apartments, applying…
-
Virginia as Southern-Most Yankee State
Want more proof that Virginia is turning into New Jersey? The percentage of Virginia-born legislators in the General Assembly has declined to 49%, according to data published by the Virginia Public Access Project — with the biggest jump taking place in the last election. I don’t know how many out-of-state legislators were actually born in…
-
Foreign, Native-Born Migratory Trends in Virginia’s Metros
Reflecting its lagging economic growth in the 2010s, Virginia experienced an unfamiliar sensation — more native-born Americans moving out than moving in. Or, as demographers put it, negative net domestic migration. Thanks to natural population increase and strong international immigration, Virginia’ s population continued growing through the decade. But the domestic out-migration was a sign…
-
Why Are So Many Rural Virginians Stuck in Place?
by James A. Bacon A recurring question on this blog and elsewhere is why don’t more Americans (and rural Virginians) move to areas of greater economic opportunity? Why do they remain stuck in communities with high unemployment and low wages? Americans have always moved to economic opportunity in the past. What’s different now? Those questions…
-
What Does It Mean to Be “White” or “Black” These Days?
by James A. Bacon As President Bill Clinton famously predicted in 1998 based on Census Bureau forecasts, white Americans would lose their majority status in the United States by the 2040s. The prospect of “people of color” comprising an “emerging Democratic majority” has undergirded the Democratic Party strategy of making racial/ethnic identity politics the core…
-
Wonk Alert: Cool New Interactive Map
If you were a high school graduate from Dickenson County applying for admittance to the University of Virginia, the odds of getting accepted in 2017 and 2018 were 100%. If you were a high school graduate from Fairfax County, the odds were only a little better than one in three (37.7%). Sounds pretty unfair, huh?…
-
Richmond and DC Among Cities People Are Most Eager to Ditch
by Don Rippert Anywhere but here. Moneywise Publishing is citing a “study” detailing the most and least desirable American cities based on real estate inquiries. Real estate brokerage firm Redfin tracks Americans using their web site to find new places to live. According to the company, 25% of people browsing home listings online are “looking…
-
Does the Left Have an Understandable Position on Immigration and How Much Does It Matter?
by Don Rippert Debate: The debate on immigration in America continues to rage. People who hold right-of-center political beliefs seem to think that the U.S. immigration laws should be vigorously enforced. There may be some “wiggle room” on the right. For example, some conservatives believe there should be exceptions to deportation for those illegally in…
-
The New African Migration
by James A. Bacon While the United States indulges in an orgy of introspection over the 400th anniversary of enslaved Africans arriving on the shores of Virginia, it might be worthwhile reminding ourselves that that was then, and this is now. It may have escaped the notice of the New York Times, but the country…
-
The Most Cost-Effective Anti-Poverty Program Known to Man: Contraception
Back to exploring “root causes” of poverty… This chart shows vividly how poverty is a demography-driven phenomenon. Poor people have more children than the not-poor do, and they have children at a younger age. The consequence of this “disparity” in fertility rates is that the percentage of children raised in poverty is vastly higher than…
-
Virginia Population by 2020: 8.7 Million
The Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia has published new projections for Virginia’s population in 2020. The population will continue to increase, though at a slower rate in the past, reaching an estimated 8.66 million next year. Most striking is a graphic (seen above) showing the relative distribution of the population between Northern…
-
Teen Births and Violent Crime — a Weak Connection
I’ll be the first to admit, giving me an Excel spreadsheet is the intellectual equivalent of handing a chimp a machine gun. What I don’t know about statistics would, well… it would fill a statistics textbook. But I abuse statistics less than most journalists, commentators, and politicians, who, to paraphrase renowned economist Ronald H. Coase,…
-
And Now… Some Mind-Blowing Data about Rural Virginia
Rural Virginia may have seen a decline in the number of jobs since 2011, but get this: Incomes have been rising faster than in Virginia’s metropolitan areas — 12% since 2010 compared to just 5% for the metros, says Hamilton Lombard on the University of Virginia’s Demographics Research Group blog, StatChat. Likewise, poverty rates have…
-
Dominant Pattern of Urban Change: Low-Income Concentration
Geek alert! The Institute of Metropolitan Opportunity, affiliated with the University of Minnesota Law School, has devised an interesting way to look at urban change at the neighborhood level in the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas. A new study, “American Neighborhood Change in the 21st Century,” examines census tracts to see if they fall into…