Hung Cao won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate yesterday by an overwhelming margin, collecting nearly 62% of the votes in a five-man race. Scott Parkinson trailed in the No. 2 position at 11%.
Cao could almost claim a sweep. He reaped a majority of votes in every locality but one. In the small Southside city of Emporia, Eddie Garcia squeaked out a plurality of 33% (see map above).
The media made much of Cao’s comment about it not being worth the trouble to travel to Abingdon for a debate, but the remark didn’t appear to hurt him. He carried Washington County where Abingdon is the county seat with 54% of the vote. Admittedly, that was lower than his statewide average but, then, so was his showing throughout much of rural Virginia. He racked up his biggest margins in Northern Virginia and the big metro suburbs.
And therein lies an interesting angle as we handicap Hung’s odds of success against popular incumbent Tim Kaine.
Speaking on the John Reid Show (WRVA radio) this morning, Cao said he is confident he can win a majority of votes south of the Rappahannock. Any successful Republican candidate would have to do the same. Kaine will carry the Democratic stronghold of Northern Virginia, that is a given. The key to Republican success is limiting the losses there while maximizing downstate votes. Cao is under no illusion that he can win Northern Virginia, but he thinks he can perform well.
A Vietnamese refugee who settled with his family in Northern Virginia, Cao attended the Thomas Jefferson High School of Science and Technology before going on to the Naval Academy and serving in the special forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia. He lives in the town of Purcellville in Loudoun County. Running in 2022 against Jennifer Wexton, he tallied a respectable 47% of the vote in the Democratic-leaning 10th congressional district.
This time around Cao ran exceptionally well in Northern Virginia. In Loudoun County, he carried almost 80% of the GOP primary vote. Loudoun is his hometown, to be sure. But in neighboring Prince William County, he nailed down 77% of the vote, and 67% in Fairfax County. He was relatively weaker (or his opponents were stronger) downstate.
But so what? Cao consistently tallied 60% to 70% of the primary ballots in vote-rich Virginia Beach, Chesterfield and Henrico. And where else are GOP voters in deep-red districts going to go? Is any MAGA voter going to spurn Cao, whom former President Trump endorsed, because he was too busy to drive to Abingdon to debate an opponent and referred to the Staunton News Leader as a “podunk” newspaper?
Apparently Kaine thinks so. In an ad released after Cao’s victory was announced, Kaine said, “Staunton isn’t podunk! We spent our honeymoon here.”
Cao didn’t call Staunton podunk. He used the pejorative to describe the local newspaper…. which is a fair characterization.
Referring to Cao’s statement that it was “ridonkulous” to drive five hours from Purcellville to Abingdon for a debate, Kaine said, “Abingdon isn’t ridonkulous! My wife’s aunt lived there.”
Of course, Cao didn’t call Abingdon ridonkulous. He called driving five hours to a debate there a ridonkulous use of his time.
The misrepresentations in the ad do not reflect well on Kaine. The Senator would do better tying Cao to Trump, who is widely unpopular in Virginia despite polls showing him running neck-and-neck with President Biden (who happens to be equally unpopular). Given the fact that Trump and Biden are widely disliked in the Old Dominion, we can expect both Cao and Kaine to attack the other through their presidential proxies.
We can also expect the media to lap up the name-calling like thirsty dogs.
That would be a travesty, given the fact the massive threats the U.S. faces: mob rule, elite lawfare, persistent inflation, spreading social disorder, disintegrating borders, massive structural deficits and a metastasizing national debt, and aggression of autocrats abroad. Maybe, just maybe, the Senate race will provide a forum for Cao and Kaine to talk about issues that matter. We can always hope.