In late December, senior legislators with the House Republican caucus expressed their unease with Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s revenue forecasts for the current fiscal year and the two years following. They urged him to reconvene a meeting of the Governor’s Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates to update the forecasts based on the latest economic figures.
Kaine declined to do so. At the time, Spokesperson Delacey Skinner responded as follows: “Calling a special meeting would send a message to the public that we’re panicked, and that would be an unwise message to send.” (See “More Budget Rumbles.”)
So, now we know officially what everyone knew unofficially two months ago: that an ailing economy has clobbered state revenues worse than previously forecast. Yesterday, Gov. Kaine confirmed that the revenue shortfall, which he had estimated at $618 million in December, had increased by $340 million.
Can we panic yet?
By refusing to send that true but “unwise” message in December, the Kaine administration ensured that budgetary discussions during the intervening period were based on the wrong numbers. By waiting until the last minute to drop this bomb, Kaine left legislators precious little time to make the needed adjustments. Lawmakers may well have little choice but to accept his recommendations — including a controversial draw-down of the Rainy Day fund — on how to close the gap. Could that have been what the Kaniacs were planning all along?
Read the press release announcing the budget shortfall here and his recommended budget cuts here. Read the response of House Appropriations Chair Lacy Putney, I-Bedford, here.