Can We Panic Yet?

In late December, senior legislators with the House Republican caucus expressed their unease with Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s revenue forecasts for the current fiscal year and the two years following. They urged him to reconvene a meeting of the Governor’s Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates to update the forecasts based on the latest economic figures.

Kaine declined to do so. At the time, Spokesperson Delacey Skinner responded as follows: “Calling a special meeting would send a message to the public that we’re panicked, and that would be an unwise message to send.” (See “More Budget Rumbles.”)

So, now we know officially what everyone knew unofficially two months ago: that an ailing economy has clobbered state revenues worse than previously forecast. Yesterday, Gov. Kaine confirmed that the revenue shortfall, which he had estimated at $618 million in December, had increased by $340 million.

Can we panic yet?

By refusing to send that true but “unwise” message in December, the Kaine administration ensured that budgetary discussions during the intervening period were based on the wrong numbers. By waiting until the last minute to drop this bomb, Kaine left legislators precious little time to make the needed adjustments. Lawmakers may well have little choice but to accept his recommendations — including a controversial draw-down of the Rainy Day fund — on how to close the gap. Could that have been what the Kaniacs were planning all along?

Read the press release announcing the budget shortfall here and his recommended budget cuts here. Read the response of House Appropriations Chair Lacy Putney, I-Bedford, here.


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Comments

  1. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Quick POLL:

    When Revenues fall below Expenditures, we should:

    1. – use the rainy day fund

    2. – cut expenditures to match revenues

    3. – no cuts, raise taxes but call them fees (my personal favorite).

    🙂

    Bonus Questions:

    What did Gilmore do when the economy slowed down in the middle of his car tax relief?

    What will Kaine do to his Pre-K plans now that the economy has slowed down?

    Bonus Bonus Question: Who has a better haircut?

  2. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    It’s the “I want a legacy” syndrome. While I think it’s a good idea for governors to have plans (hopefully the same ones that they floated during the campaign), it would be better for all of us if they were to focus on just operating state government efficiently and effectively.

    But just as Tysons Corner landowners seek financial windfalls on the backs of taxpayers and DTR users, so to do most Virginia governors seek their legacies on our backs.

    Gilmore should have postponed the car tax cut when things looked shakly. Kaine should likewise shelve his pre-K and healthcare initiatives.

    In fact, if governors just left the Commonwealth incrementally better than when they took office, that might well be a fitting legacy.

    TMT

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