Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Can We Learn from the Lexington Outlier?

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

We can learn a lot from outliers. They draw attention to variables and correlations we may not have considered before. In researching the previous post, I came across this anomaly: in the City of Lexington, economically disadvantaged Blacks passed their Standards of Learning reading tests at a higher rate (83.3%) than Blacks who were not economically disadvantaged (69.2%).

This makes no sense. The conventional wisdom says that affluent students enjoy a huge educational edge over disadvantaged students. What’s going on?

My first thought was that I had made a transcription error. But, nope. I double- checked. The results from the Virginia Department of Education build-a-table database appear above. 

Could this be a statistical fluke resulting from fluctuations in small numbers? Perhaps. VDOE suppresses results for racial/ethnic groups with fewer than 50 students. I checked to see the pass rates in previous years, but the pass rates for not-disadvantaged students in previous years were excluded due to small numbers.

However, one remarkable fact jumped out: English reading pass rates for disadvantaged Blacks in Lexington have shown spectacular gains from the pre-pandemic era. In the 2017-18 school year, only 42.3% of Black students passed their English reading SOLs. Last year, 83.3% passed. Some of that improvement undoubtedly came from the lower “cut” scores for English reading exams, but something else is going on.

English reading pass rates have improved for disadvantaged Whites, too — from 73.3% in the 2017-18 school year to 87.5% last year. That’s impressive, considering that Whites statewide have yet to regain all the ground lost during the pandemic. Yet those gains pale in comparison to those of Lexington’s disadvantaged Blacks.

That still leaves the mystery of how disadvantaged Blacks are out-performing their not-disadvantaged peers. Even so, the anomaly seems worthwhile looking into. Virginia needs to learn from its successes. If Lexington is doing something different now than it was four years ago — if that something can be replicated elsewhere — every Virginia educator needs to know about it.

— JAB

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73 responses to “Can We Learn from the Lexington Outlier?”

  1. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nNV2TXhLAac

  2. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Generally, you filter outliers.

    1. Matt Hurt Avatar
      Matt Hurt

      Not in our business. We study them to find out why they are outliers so that we can shift the entire distribution in a positive manner.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        The question being, “Is it process or noise?”

        1. Matt Hurt Avatar
          Matt Hurt

          In this instance, it’s process.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Can you offer more on what and why?

          2. Matt Hurt Avatar
            Matt Hurt

            According to folks there, they did a ton of outreach with families to ensure that their students were engaged during virtual instruction. Whenever a student wasn’t engaging, they problem solved the issue until it was corrected. They also have very high expectations, and I suppose that they mitigated the negative impact that Covid had on their expectations more than others.

          3. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            In the late 90s, under the Bush governorship, the Houston ISD out scored the state too. It was a process, so to speak.

  3. Teddy007 Avatar
    Teddy007

    6% black for the entire city and some of those have to be academic at the two colleges. Once again, small sample sizes are no place to make policy or even to try to draw ideas for policy.

    According to Niche, the entire school system is 6.7% black out of 456 students. The school system is only 23% free lunch which means about 110 students.

    The school system does not include a high school.

  4. Kathleen Smith Avatar
    Kathleen Smith

    This one made me laugh. They have the lowest SOQ ability to pay than any other division in the state. If I told someone in Petersburg to go check out Lexington, they would call W and M and ask them to rescind my degree.

  5. Kathleen Smith Avatar
    Kathleen Smith

    It does say something about high expectations.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Do you think there is a difference in teaching itself at different schools?

  6. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I’ll give JAB credit for actually looking more comprehensively at the data as well as ferreting out the outliers which I’d agree, could offer insights.

    Might also be useful to compare things like discipline and attendance data.

  7. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    Higher percentage of intact family? Trigger warning for Larry and Troll – less illegitimacy?
    Hey, has anybody thought to look at relative poverty level by two parent household vs one parent household? Asking for a friend…

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      The thing is Walter, there are more than a few one-parent families and the kids in some of those families can and still learn.

      Is your premise that is there is poverty and/or one-parent that the schools should not be held responsible? Is that the idea behind voucher schools, i.e. they don’t have to take these kids , they can just reject them?

      What is your actual point? You’re gonna to abandon the child if their parents are not doing right?

      1. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        If the reason for Lexington’s educational success is an unusual number of two parent households, the analysis kind of ends there. There is little the education system can do to change family dynamics, at least over a reasonable timeframe.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          No study has ever been done to determine that ?

          When folks say one parent families, are they also including the kids of parents who are not in poverty and have good incomes?

          Lots of divorces and single parent families – rich and poor.

          Any difference?

          1. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Larry, unless you’ve ever personally experienced it, you probably aren’t aware that no amount of money can make up for the lack of a parent.

            NONE.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            got any data to show that in terms of education and schooling?

            Right wing canards are not real nor true necessarily. Takes more than folks biases.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Do you think if the parents are college-educated and earn good incomes that even in divorced and separate than their kids suffer the same deficits that kids of not-college-educated/low income single parents?

            Lots of single parent families – rich and poor.

          4. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            And how many single parent families do you know and have you EVER talked with the children of those single parent families 20-30 years later to ask how that affected them?

            Probably not.

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Pretty sure there is data that could be looked at. Better than right wing fairy tales and canards.

            Do you think it’s any/all single parent families regardless of the education and income levels of the parent(s)?

          6. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Here’s some data:

            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4245275/

          7. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            so the single parent thing is specific to black folks?

          8. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            No, that particular study looked at African American single-parent households. There are many, many others that looked at single-parent households in general. I linked one of them and you could, assuming you really wanted to educate yourself on the subject, look at the references in this article and other one.

          9. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Trying to understand your viewpoint. Do you think it is ANY single parent family regardless of color , education level of the parent and income level of the parent?

            Are there studies that have the variables above that conclude that the education outcomes of kids is worse for single parents no matter income and education level of the parents?

          10. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Across numerous studies, children raised in single-mother families are at heightened risk for substance abuse, depression, anxiety, and externalizing behaviors and disorders (Amato & Keith, 1991; Aseltine, 1996; Dodge, Petit, & Bates, 1994; Hilton & Devall, 1998; Schleider et al., 2014).

            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5226056/

          11. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            regardless of parent education level and income level?

            And even if true, do we just blame and walk away?

          12. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Across “NUMEROUS” studies, Larry.

          13. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            so ANY/ALL single parent kids regardless of race, income and education?

          14. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Don’t forget IQ, Larry.

            A high-IQ child of a single parent will probably do much better than a low-IQ child of a single parent.

          15. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            really? the same IQ for a single parent versus two-parent has worse education outcomes?

          16. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            It isn’t some “right wing canard” that growing up in a single parent household SUCKS for the child, no matter how much money is involved.

          17. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            anything specific or just schooling and education? And no matter if the single-parent is college-educated and has a good income? same outcomes?

          18. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Larry, I want you to try to imagine what your life would be like right now if you had grown up without one of your parents. Do you think you would have been as successful as you have been? Do you think you would have gotten married (assuming you are) and had kids (assuming you did?) Do you think you would have gone to college (assuming you did)?

            You don’t need to answer me. Just sit and think, and imagine this alternate path your life could have taken, but fortunately did not.

          19. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Did grow up without one. Next question?

          20. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Weren’t you a military brat?

          21. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Yup, until the divorce!

            Do you consider “single parent” when one parent is deployed ?

          22. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            As long as the one parent who is deployed is available and desires to be a parent, no, I do not.

            When the other parent is completely out of the child’s life is what I would consider to be “single parent”, and the worst possible case of it.

          23. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            so if Dad (or mom) is gone and the remaining parent has a high school education and a low wage job and needs welfare… ?? no different than if Dad(Mom) is a Major and Dad/Mom at home is college educated and has a high income job?

          24. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Money can’t replace the social benefits of a parents. Money won’t teach a boy how to be a man, a dad does that. If that makes me sound like an old fashioned “conservative” than so be it.

          25. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            talking about school performance and outcomes?

          26. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Yea, that too. The anxiety and depression that can result when a parent is absent can negatively impact school performance and outcomes. And a parent that is absent can’t help with homework or school projects.

            Me, personally–I stopped giving a crap about school when my parents separated. Just didn’t care anymore. Not going to go into the reasons why, but it is what happened.

            And I doubt I’m an outlier in that regard.

          27. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            so those kids right now who have single parents – all/most of them do poorly in school even first, second third grade and there is nothing we can do for them?

          28. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I don’t have an answer as to how to fix something like that which is already broken.

            Best to keep it from being broken in the first place.

          29. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            so those kids are screwed?

          30. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            They’re certainly going to have a harder time.

          31. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            and we cannot and should not help them, just blame their circumstances on their parents and walk away?

            That’s what I perceive from the folks who want to blame single-parent status – blame then walk away as if there is no way to teach these kids.

          32. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            As a matter of fact, I do think parents deserve some blame for putting their children into a single-parent situation.

          33. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Oh I do too, but what about the kid?

          34. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Not their fault. Work around the situation as best as can be done. But the parents need to understand that when children are involved, their children take priority, it’s not Burger King, you don’t get it “your way” and when you decided to have children, that is the sacrifice you must make. Don’t want it, don’t have children.

          35. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Totally agree about parents but how do we get the kid educated well enough to get a good job, be financially able to care for himself and his own kids, and not need entitlements?

            Blaming his parents won’t do much.

            How do we break the cycle?

          36. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I have no answer. Schools can’t really do much about what happens in the home.

          37. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            so the cycle repeats?

          38. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            That’s the logical conclusion, isn’t it?

          39. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            and those kids cant be helped at voucher schools/success academy either?

          40. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            In terms of education, in my own case, I was much more harmed by my Dad being transferred every 2 yrs than the divorce. The schools in different states have different curriculum, standards, sequence, etc. I got taught the same thing and missed stuff because the states had different sequences for order of teaching.

          41. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            The LONGEST I ever lived anywhere while growing up was 5 years. Spent kindergarten and part of 1st grade in one school district, then the next 5 years in another, then spent 2 weeks in 6th grade then moved to Virginia , lived in the “new house” for all of 2 years then mom separated from dad and moved yet again, stayed there for 3 years, then mom bought a house and moved yet again, so I finished off my senior year in yet another school district.

            So let’s see:

            1 school district, K-1st
            2nd school district, 1st-part of 6th
            3rd school district, part of 6th-part of 12th (same school but lived in two different places)
            4th school district, last half of 12th.

            All of this bull$#%$ necessitated by my dad’s job (which he got laid off from AFTER moving to Virginia) and my parents inability to get along.

            Love it.

          42. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            About 5 states plus overseas while we stayed.. different schools, friends left behind, new friends then left, hard drinking, physical fights, then divorce, etc. took test before community college, was informed I needed remedial especially on grammar (ha ha), … night school after work til 10pm, fun, fun…

      2. walter smith Avatar
        walter smith

        I am addressing the elephant in the room, among many other smaller mammals…
        The elephant in the room is that since the federal government decided to “help” (you know – COMPASSION!, otherwise known as the road to Hell is paved with good intentions) by paying women with babies. The black illegitimacy rate went from about 20% to about 75% and the white illegitimacy rate went from about 5% to 20-25%.
        We know the incredible correlation of all sorts of societal ills stemming from that.
        A lesser size mammal – no fault divorce…
        That’s enough for now, but until we acknowledge the societal necessity to encourage intact families, no amount of money will “fix” the problems (and even if we get overall illegitimacy down to 5% or so, there will still be problems! Human agency/free will/ behaviors and choices matter)

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          so you’re really NOT talking about ALL single parents just certain kinds?

          1. walter smith Avatar
            walter smith

            Do you TRY to be stupid?
            NO!
            I am talking about a societal problem of general application.
            You Lefties are the ones who make EVERYTHING about race.
            This CHOICE explains a huge portion of “disparity” that you Lefties love to harp on. It’s your “solutions” that just coincidentally always make things worse.
            Before the government “helped,” blacks had made a lot of progress, and this was in an often openly rigged against them system. If you actually cared about poor people (white and black) other than as vote farms for Dems, you would acknowledge this failure. You don’t. You’re either stupid or evil – take your pick.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            what kind of govt help that was specific to blacks?

            please be specific.

          3. walter smith Avatar
            walter smith

            Why don’t you do your own homework?
            Here is an article from 2010 describing the lack of marriage problem. It is not based on race. https://www.heritage.org/marriage-and-family/commentary/understanding-illegitimacy
            I don’t know the names of all the disincentive programs because I haven’t used them.
            I know that there is generational poverty and illegitimacy. How did it get worse instead of better?
            Hmmm…can we point to anything?
            This is almost like wondering about all the strange increases in maladies post Covid mandates…Hmmm…what could possibly be an explanation?
            Except in this case we have 60 years of history and the evidence is overwhelming.
            Quit wasting everyone’s time…
            Are there only 2 sexes?
            Does 2 + 2 = 4?
            Is math racist?
            I’m sorry – until Lefties acknowledge reality, you are at best, a waste of time, and at worst, evil.
            At this point, it points more and more to evil. Acknowledge when you are wrong, then progress can be made. This is something true for all people.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            re: ” Before the government “helped,” blacks had made a lot of progress, and this was in an often openly rigged against them system.”

            Is this true ? or is it your belief?

            is there data to show that illegitimacy increased when govt started “helping”?

          5. walter smith Avatar
            walter smith

            Is the sky blue?

          6. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            so your belief?

          7. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Walter – what exactly do you think should be done for kids of single parents – right now – today?

            Do we write them off?

          8. walter smith Avatar
            walter smith

            As usual for the Democrat hack, NO!
            But how about quit digging the hole?
            This is like the Muslim problem…uh, guys….gotta drop that jihad thing if you want to live in America. So it would be on other Muslims to try to encourage the dropping of jihad. And it is on all people, black white red brown purple green to discourage illegitimacy.
            It’s really not that hard to understand, except when you refuse to.

          9. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            so the kids of single parents right now – do what?

          10. walter smith Avatar
            walter smith

            You tell me Larry. But how about stop making it worse? Is that OK? Or let it keep getting worse and claim it’s all due to racism?
            First – acknowledge the problem. What is the problem? The problem is Liberals! Encouraging illegitimacy. Got that?
            OK, now let’s try to address the issue.
            (Hmmm…maybe the sperm donor could step up and be a father…maybe the sperm donor fathers should be shamed…maybe the mothers need to look out for the kids by finding a stable mate…)
            Got to stop digging the hole if you want to eventually fill it up.

          11. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            the kids right now for the next 10-15 years?

  8. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    OK, people let’s cool the rhetoric and stop the name calling or I will shut down this comment thread. — JAB

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