Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Building the Dynamic Dominion

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

virginia

In its long-running Dynamic Dominion series, the Times-Dispatch today examines the issue of entrepreneurship in Virginia… or the lack of it. The editorial quotes approvingly an argument I made recently that the intertwined phenomena of lackluster economic growth, persistent unemployment, stagnant wages and the income gap can be traced in large measure to the declining rate of business formation, which in turn can be traced to over-regulation. Observing that Virginia trails the national average for business startups by three-tenths of a percentage point, the editorial surveys the climate for entrepreneurship here in the Old Dominion.

The T-D piece covers a number of other topics: Virginia’s lagging R&D sector, regulation of the craft brewery industry, the failings of business incubators and the folly of municipal investments such as the failed 6th Street Marketplace as job-creation schemes. These are all worthwhile matters to examine. Whether you agree or disagree with the T-D — or with me, for that matter — is less important than whether you give serious thought to this foundational question.

After all, there’s one thing that we can all agree upon: Without a hospitable environment for entrepreneurs, we will never have a strong economy. Without a strong economy, we will never have the resources needed to resolve the social problems we all would like to address. Virginians have too long taken their superior economic performance for granted. We’re losing our edge. It’s time to re-examine the way we do things. The T-D editorial, indeed its editorial series on the Dynamic Dominion, is a necessary start.

— JAB

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87 responses to “Building the Dynamic Dominion”

  1. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    I was hoping you’d touch on this WaPo article:

    McAuliffe announces $2.4 billion projected budget gap in Va.; blames defense cuts

    http://goo.gl/9Uxog3

    and perhaps this ” Under Obama, a Record Decline in Government Jobs”

    and this: Budget deficit shrinks to lowest level under Obama

    and then finally – the oft-repeated assertion that the government does not create jobs.

    Don’t you think the stagnant economy in Va is due to cuts in govt spending – specifically defense?

    and more cuts are on the way as the POTUS has already cut Medicare Advantage and promises more cuts to the Advantage program which is heavily subsidized – and more means-testing for Medicare.

    So – when we cut govt spending – it DOES affect the economy because of the economy that is layered on top of the spending by govt employees – and seniors who can buy houses and cars if their health care is paid for by Medicare.

    the “over regulation” is right wing echo chamber blather unless you are ready, willing and able to provide specifics .. it does not help the discussion.. it just promotes more partisan views towards govt.

  2. TooManyTaxes Avatar
    TooManyTaxes

    Virginia is a crack addict. And crack comes from the DoD and DoHS.

    Despite the “I’m gonna create jobs” rhetoric from our Governors, both Rs & Ds, damn little has happened. I think one of the major, and un-discussed, reasons for the lack of economic diversity is that the type of people attracted to Virginia (NoVA and Hampton Roads) are not the kind of people who create the type of disruptive businesses or cut costs from existing businesses. The very type of people who have made Virginia successful serving the federal government are not the type of people who develop machines that suck carbon from the air and turn it into plastics. If the Navy had a plan and roadmap to do this, Virginians would likely be able to accomplish the task. But we are a people responsive to government directives, not the market.

    Another example, would be to use lessons learned from telecom to operate traffic lights in an optimized manner. One would think we would do this, but I don’t think we can unless someone tells us what they need. Nicola Tesla and Thomas Edison would not have worked in Virginia.

    How do we make the change? I don’t think anyone in state government from Terry McAuliffe down has a clue.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      that was quite excellent TMT!

      Virginia attracts folks who like to have govt jobs that provide retirement and health care benefits as long as they like to help DOD build and maintain foxholes!

      We do have the Center for Innovative Technology (CIT) which was created in 1985 by Gerald Baliles and he was followed by Mark Warner – a legitimate innovative businessman.

      We do have lots of highly educated folks in NoVa – attracted by the DOD and Darpa to make sure our military is the most technologically advanced in the world.

      but we have not to date, really leveraged that to become a leader in innovation and technology – and we continue treat education of our own rural citizens like an unwanted step-child and our Universities as de-facto predators of those with limited financial means.

      Virginia basically is the mother of all US states – on the dole and not particularly apologetic for it.

      We are right now – 500 billion away from a balanced budget. We currently take in about 1.3T – in tax revenues. We spend a trillion on “national defense” – about twice as much as we claim we do by restricting the definition to “DOD” – and we spend about a trillion on entitlements – about 500 billion of that on Medicare – providing guaranteed health insurance to seniors who make 85K in income – for 100.00 a month.

      Our biggest tax expenditures are 1. tax-free health insurance 2. tax-free 401K and 3. mortgage interest.

      the path to a balanced budget – even with the boomers coming is not impossible by any stretch of the imagination – if we can stop stupid stuff like talking about death panels and the such.

      1. TooManyTaxes Avatar
        TooManyTaxes

        I have a friend who is a Ph.D engineer. Brilliant guy, who had worked for DARPA. He started a company to build cognitive, spectrum hopping radios. I have another good friend hired by the same company to help the technology come to market. I worked with the Company on a number of projects. Long story short. The Company has largely abandoned the commercial market and is fighting for federal contract dollars.

        I’m far from being an engineer, but understand enough about the technology to know it offers huge efficiencies in the use of radio spectrum by sharing channels. One transmits energy on a frequency until the radio senses any other energy on the same frequency, at which point, the radio selects a new permissible frequency. Etc. Etc. Etc. Anything that can be done by radio can be done efficiently and effectively. So why is this not in the market? Why isn’t it disrupting some or multiple industries. Answer the question and Virginia can be rebuilt into an economic powerhouse.

  3. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    re: regulation

    I can show you the top 5 expenditures in the US or the Va budget. I can show you the top 5 tax breaks in the US budget and their dollar values.

    If someone wants to make the regulation argument – I think they should be able to list the top 5, 10, or dirty dozen regulations and their cost impacts to the economy along with their dates since part of that narrative claims that it’s recent regulation that has done the damage.

    In other words – make the actual case and limit the vague and non-specific ideological trope. Give me the dirty-dozen – the specifics.

    until we get to that point where the folks who make these claims are willing to actually name the regulations and provide the dollar costs – how in the world would we ever be able to have any kind of informed discussion?

    when folks engage in the regulation argument – it just adds to the ideological and partisan divisions … it does not even begin to get to – what both sides can agree – needs to be done.

    You don’t need to be a political conservative to be a fiscal conservative.

    REAL Fiscal Conservatives don’t care about the left/right politics but instead on the specifics – which never seem to be present when the right talks about regulations.

    1. jwgilley Avatar
      jwgilley

      The CIT was created by Chuck Robb in 1983/4. It was originally proposed by UVA to be in Charlottesville but the Robb Adm wanted to do something in NoVa due to the new IT businesses locating there. It has several directors until Gov Balilies appointed Lynwood Holton as the director.
      Over time Virginia has spent several hundred million dollars on the CIT but it is not really produced any significant research successes to date.
      When it was proposed by then U. Va President Frank Hereford to be in C’Ville it was to be a product of the major universities collaboration and was to create a “Research Triangle” in VA like NC has.
      But someone got the idea it should be in NoVa and so Robb and the GA took it and placed it in NoVa but without any research or graduate students.
      The NoVa legislators took the graduate IT/Engineering component out of the CIT and gave GMU a new graduate school of engineering and IT (SITE) along with tens of millions of dollars. So the CIT is still there but no significant research etc. resulting- that any one knows of. But GMU has shown dramatic engineering/IT development over the years.
      Also, around the same time Hereford, a physics professor and UVa President proposed the SURA (Southern Universities Research Association) which developed into a major federal funded research center initially called CEBAF (Continuous Electronic Beam Accelerator Facility) and initially with seed money provided by Governor John Dalton. It is now named the Thomas Jefferson Institute in Tidewater not at the University of Virginia.
      All of these initiatives coming out of Charlottesville were moved away and distributed across the state via politics and now Virginia is dramatically behind Maryland, NC, Georgia and Tennessee in university contract research. For example, Ga Tech does more than UVa and VT combined.
      So Virginia will have to do more than hope for more federal spending and the Governor is correct in calling for a new economic strategy. But can the Commonwealth put aside politics and do it is the question.

      1. larryg Avatar
        larryg

        Thanks for the history and yes I agree that politics is involved -as usual.

        Having said that – I wonder about the mission – and it’s proximity to education and research – as opposed to economic development – to be the go-to place to incubate private sector start-ups.

        In other words, what are the things that Va could do – to make NoVa (as well as the University locales) a competitive place for start-ups to locate?

        New York has designated start-up zones where they have no taxes – corporate, sales or even property for 10 years – for start-ups.

        There is location-specific problem with that and that is giving a start-up an competitive advantage over a pre-existing business .. and so the politics of it relate to existing businesses that take a dim view of what they view as subsidized competition.

        what are the things that Va can do – to attract companies that are working on 21st century technologies or perhaps a better statement would be – what can Va do that will not discourage start-ups – as Virginia has been down-graded several times recently for NOT being friendly to business and losing out to other states.

        That’s where I think this nebulous “regulation is bad” goes off the rails unless folks can pinpoint specific ones – that actually chase business/entire industries out of Va (as opposed to saying, for instance that it hurts craft beers or some such.

        Does Virginia have it’s share of 21st century industry?

        and if we do not, why?

        that’s the kind of thing I’d like to see CIT do… rather than a food fight between competing Virginia Universities.

        I’ll say this – McAuliffe did a better job with Uber and Lyft than many other states and if that is an indication of the way he thinks – I think it is a good one and much more productive than grasping for gifts and loans… from “start-ups” (sic).

  4. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    re: ” regulation of the craft brewery industry”

    GOOD LORD!

    is this what is holding Va back from economic nirvana?

    can someone provide the “loss” to Virginia’s economy as a result of this regulation?

    49 cents?

  5. TooManyTaxes Avatar
    TooManyTaxes

    Are people good at serving government needs able to think outside the box? Can they figure out who is the competition? I don’t think so.

    I worked for a guy, used to be dean of a major university’s business school. He used to say telecom needed to be able to see its competitor as the travel industry. How can telecommunications disrupt the airlines, hotels, rental cars, etc.?

    It should not stop there. How can Fairfax County Public Schools offer more electives with fewer teachers? Can robots be used to direct traffic around accident scenes? People who think about these things don’t live here.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      re: patents

      ” The federal government, through the operation of government-owned research facilities, research grants to universities and procurement contracts with private industry, funds almost 50% of the national R&D effort. Because of this enormous funding, the federal government has the most United States patent rights. It is estimated that the government has title to over 30,000 patents and annually files several thousand new applications. The government also has rights to nonexclusive, irrevocable, royalty-free licenses in thousands of patents. In addition, the government has a myriad of other patent rights. Examples include march-in rights, rights to require the owner to license others, rights to require licensing of background patents, rights to approve assignments, rights to limit terms of license agreements and reversionary ownership rights.”

      there’s more to this story though – how much do companies who use GPS technology pay to the US to use that technology?

      Arpanet was the DARPA packet-switching pre-coursor to the internet. The creator was a govt employee who left the govt to further pursue the technology.

      Think about drones or the NSA and where those technologies came from -and who got the patents…and think about which govt Agency offered a prize for the first true autonomous car – and that would be DARPA.

      Think about NOAA satellites … and the awesome mapping capabilities of the USGS and the DOD DMA.

      Virginia has the fastest internet in the country -even faster than reported because it is averaged with internet in SW Va which sucks.

      In short – Virginia has the inventors and the internet already in house… and my question is – why don’t we have more private start-ups? and the answer is why leave a safe govt job?

  6. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    Damned, Bacon, this bot crap doesn’t work! Why don’t you get rid of it.

    ANyway, while I am glad for you that the RTD gave you a splash, I have always not be a fan of that newspaper.

    It misses a big point in its whining about government regulation,. What’s really holding new business creation back is money. There’s not much VC or angel financing in the state. Traditional banks are still so shell shocked by the 2008 Recession that they won’t loan money while big companies horde cash and firms like Citibank pay no income taxes. You wouldn’t expect the lapdog RTD to bring up these points. The fact is that the Virginia establishment has been plumb happy with the federal dole while they bitch constantly about it.

    And that is Virginia’s huge problem. No money for true startups by chintzy, conservative Big Business who meanwhile want the federal greenbacks to roll in.

    Remove the federal spending and what do you have? Arkansas? Maybe arrogant Virginians should consider that.

    1. virginiagal2 Avatar
      virginiagal2

      I’m not sure capital is quite the issue it used to be. Between Kickstarter and people self-financing, many startups – particularly software startups with founders that can actually code – don’t necessarily need VC to get started.

      If you don’t actually need VC funding, getting it just dilutes the founders’ equity.

      Someone in their forties or fifties or sixties, with savings from a good tech career, probably has more than enough capital to get started.

      Once you’ve got proof of a viable product, capital IMHO is not that hard to get. Even in Richmond.

  7. DonR Avatar
    DonR

    This conversation has turned into a parade of illogical floats.

    Jim Bacon is stunned to find that Virginia is a whole three tenths of a percentage point behind the national average in new business formations and jumps to the conclusion that over-regulation is the culprit. The fact that infinitely regulated San Francisco and Boston are hotbeds of innovation eludes Jim. Bacon also ignores the fact that new business formations are also down in Australia. Presumably over-regulation in Virginia didn’t cause that. One wonders whether new business formation is down across the globe. Using the MSA Innovation index where the average MSA index for the US = 100.0, in 2011 Richmond had 84.2 patents per 100,000 inhabitants in key technical areas. Austin had 278, Lexington, KY had 133 and Greenville, SC had 125.

    TMT goes off on his repeated rant about people living in NoVa and Tidewater being unable to start companies because they are too used to doing the bidding of government. Washington, DC and the Maryland suburbs of Washington should be in the same boat as NoVa based on TMT’s logic. so, his argument ignores Marriott, MCI, AOL, RipTech, etc. He also ignores newly formed companies like Resonate Insights (Big Data, Reston), FoundationDB (next generation database, Tysons Corner). Here is a list of 265 DC area start-ups – http://washington.startups-list.com/. The Washington, DC MSA is America’s 7th largest MSA and had the 6th highest level of IPO values from 2000 – 2006. Sorry, TMT but you’re just plain wrong.

    jwgilley gets confused about the relative size of Charlottesville vs the cities of the Research Triangle – Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill. Raleigh is not only the capital of NC it is almost ten times more populous than Charlottesville. Meanwhile, Research Triangle Park has three universities at play – one is much superior to UVA (Duke), one is equivalent (UNC) and the third is about the same as VA Tech (NC State). Duke is 10 miles from UNC and 24 miles from NC State. UVA is 145 miles from Virginia Tech. While I have always admired Frank Hereford his attempt to get CIT to Charlottesville was a naked power grab by UVA not a serious attempt to build Virginia’s version of Research Triangle Park.

    LarryG darts in and out of reality making some good points but fumbling some others. He gets wrapped around the axle of patents but neglects to mention that Virginia is #31 in patents per capita while Maryland is #20.

    The closest brush with enlightenment comes from Peter Galuszka who opines:

    “Remove the federal spending and what do you have? Arkansas? Maybe arrogant Virginians should consider that.”

    About a year ago I wrote an article entitled, “Is Virginia’s Economy Tanking?” For some reason that article is no longer online. In that article I noted that Virginia’s Gross State Product was growing more slowly than federal contractual spending in Virginia. In other words, outside of growth in federal spending, the state was shrinking. Now discretionary federal spending has been cut and Virginia is facing a fiscal crisis.

    This wasn’t all that hard to see coming yet The Imperial Clown Show in Richmond seem flummoxed by the state’s financial affairs. And that, my friends, is the real problem. Our elected officials are simpletons.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      well the patents in Maryland are the same reason – the preponderance of govt R&D – some live in NoVa, some in Md – but the patents come from Federal employees who live in Va-Md-Dc – of which the point is that we have in place already living here a lot of gifted R&D folks – as well as the fastest internet in the country – we have some of the things needed for private sector-start up when/if we stop sucking on the Federal Teat – and so we have the RTD, instead of dealing honestly with the issue – trotting out right wing tropes and Bacon promoting it.

      It’s never backed up with specifics – there is no dirty dozen of regulations that a sizeable group of Conservatives agree with and submit legislation to roll back. Nope..

      It’s basically an article of faith and to me it differentiates the ideological right from true fiscal conservatives – who usually do back up their claims, show specifics, and advocate repeal of the actual offending regs and has bi-partisan support, but the anti-regs thing has become a proxy for the anti-govt right in general. It’s not serious. It’s your basic right wing blather.

      the points that DR makes comparing the EFFECT in different places of regulation illustrates the one-shoe-fits-all approach of the anti-reg folks – it doesn’t matter to them – it’s an article of faith – a belief – that ANY business would be better off with less regulation and data is not needed. The other side of the equation – who benefits from regulation is totally absent from the discussion. Smokestacks make energy more expensive – nevermind if they also kill people – it’s the “drag” on business that is more important.

      and when presented that way -it degrades the quality of the discussion in my view because it turns every discussion into a partisan divide about deeply held ideological beliefs rather reality.

      A true and legitimate anti-reg effort would list, for instance, actually name the dirty dozen – the top offending regs and their dollar costs and there is no dirty dozen just never-ending blather about ObamaCare and a PROPOSAL to regulate CO2 – beyond that there is no real data on real regs and their actual costs, – just anecdotal stuff like the craft beer claim.

      there really is no intent to have a legitimate debate on regulation – much less reach a middle ground compromise – because the folks that make the argument don’t actually want to make real proposals – that would actually bring out the people who benefit from regulation so they stay back and make symbolic arguments with no real intent other than to widen the divide.

      1. DonR Avatar
        DonR

        Actually, the whole DC area performs slightly under the national average for patents per capita. My feeling is that most of the eork done here is services work which doesn’t generate as many patents as other kinds of work. However, the relatively low numbers in Richmond are an enigma to me.

        As far as regulation – California has one of the ultimate regulations – businesses are prohibited from enforcing non-compete agreements by California law. That regulation has hardly stifled high tech innovation in California. Now, Mass. is considering a similar law.

        1. larryg Avatar
          larryg

          throw this into your thinking:

          ” The federal government, through the operation of government-owned research facilities, research grants to universities and procurement contracts with private industry, funds almost 50% of the national R&D effort.

          — Because of this enormous funding, the federal government has the most United States patent rights. It is estimated that the government has title to over 30,000 patents and annually files several thousand new applications.—

          http://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/JOM/matters/matters-9004.html

          can you provide the source of your per-capita patent claim?

    2. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      “Jim Bacon is stunned to find that Virginia is a whole three tenths of a percentage point behind the national average in new business formations and jumps to the conclusion that over-regulation is the culprit.”

      Just to set the record straight: I’m not stunned that Virginia is behind the national average in new business formation. I’ve been raising the warning flag of under-performance in Virginia’s economy for a long time.

      While I think that over-regulation is a significant factor *nationally* and in other countries for dampening new business formation, I did not say that was the case for Virginia’s relatively poor track record. The T-D editorial suggested that might be the case, not me. I suspect that over-regulation may be a problem in narrow-bore and minor industries like breweries but irrelevant to the technology and business-service companies that drive economic growth. When I praised the T-D, it was for actually thinking about these issues, something it has never show much interest in before.

      I think TMT has identified part of the problem. The culture of federal IT procurement requires a different set of skills than Silicon Valley-style innovation. That’s not to say that Washington-area businesses can’t innovate — they can and do. SmartThings, an Internet of Things play based in D.C., just got purchased by Samsung for $200 million. (Unfortunately, Samsung is moving the operation to Silicon Valley, which may tell us something.) But I think it’s going to take several years before the IT industry as a whole transitions from a federal-procurement culture to a Silicon Valley-like culture.

      Then there’s the problem of the Rest of Virginia. We’re still pursuing economic development strategies — industrial recruitment, tourism, agriculture — formulated in the 1960s and 1970s. That’s a little unfair. There is some new thinking about creative-class strategies, but it hasn’t yielded much in terms of real change yet.

      It’s time for a stem-to-stern rethinking of economic development in Virginia. It sounds like Terry McAuliffe might be willing to lead that effort.

      1. Cville Resident Avatar
        Cville Resident

        I’d like to chime in with a semi-related post about Virginia’s economic policy…..namely it’s neglect of so much of the state.

        As I live in Charlotesville, I’m not going to comment on it because of my bias. However, a lot of what I’m about to type could be applied to Cville/Albemarle.

        One of the state’s biggest economic failures is the Roanoke region (I include Montgomery/Roanoke City and County/Salem). This region has a lot of fundamentals that could have made it a viable metro, unlike the rest of western Virginia. It has an interestate (not great, but it’s there), a major research university, a small, but decent urban center, and commercial air service (not good, but it’s ok considering the location), and some decent to great public schools (Cave Spring, Hidden Valley, and Blacksburg High are very good schools even by NoVa standards), and great natural beauty and outdoor activities.

        However, Virginia’s money and planning efforts have gone almost exclusively to enhancing the Urban Corridor. Yeah, western Va got a little here or a little there, but there was not a concerted state effort to really make the Roanoke region a thriving metro.

        If you visited Asheville, NC and Roanoke in 1992, I’d bet you would have said that of the 2, Roanoke was more primed for growth than Asheville considering VT was right there. Amazing that the opposite occurred.

        One thing that really hampers the state’s economic product is decades of neglect to the area west of Richmond, and a lack of effort to make Roanoke or Charlottesville or both to be thriving metros. The map of economic activity is truly depressing when you look at Virginia. When you go west of 95, Peter’s not too far from the truth…..it gives Arkansas a run for its money.

        I’d love to see McAuliffe drop the 70s economic development strategy and instead work on making Roanoke and Charlottesville thriving metros. Neither of these areas are hopeless. There are a lot of assets in both regions. Until western VA starts to look a little more like Urban Corridor Virginia and a little less like Arkansas……the state isn’t going to be a thriving state.

        1. larryg Avatar
          larryg

          re: what the state should do – to help economic development vs the RTD “regulation” idiocy vs several independent studies that have cited Virginia as being less friendly to business than other states and Jim Bacon’s rah rah cheer leading of the RTD regulation focus rather than what Va should be doing – going forward.

          re: Virginia’s University reliance on Gov grants for research.

          is that really much different than NoVa and Hampton relying on Defense spending ( quite a bit of govt research grants actually comes from DOD).

          we do not have to turn away from govt spending as our first step – but our first step should be to recognize the reality of just how much reliance that many industries have on govt spending – to include research grants and health care spending.

          I personally think we have, as a country, and as individuals been living above our means for a while now – and it’s coming to an end. It’s not the end of the world – we’ll get our share of the world jobs and economy but it’s not going to sustain the lifestyles that many of us have come to expect.. and perhaps it’s a good thing that the govt should not be essentially buying 500k homes in Loudoun nor a METRO to subsidize govt workers who choose to work in DC and locale and live in Loudoun and Fredericksburg.

        2. Tysons Engineer Avatar
          Tysons Engineer

          The state isn’t whats holding back those areas. Its the culture and the local zoning. Its stuck in a suburban mindset. You are never going to pull innovators and young tech/STEM folks to an area if a majority of the area is stuck in the 1950s. An interstate? An interstate might be the last thing a millenial wants to see. How about high speed rail connection to DC? How about transit? How about mixed use development where one won’t require a car?

          You can funnel more money, but if its wasted on I-81 widenings for freight and giant office parks, no one will ever come. Thats the big problem.

          1. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Part of it is the ability for people to contract or produce without forming businesses – Etsy, CafePress, Amazon self-publishing, eBay, Mechanical Turk, online contracting, etc.

            I don’t think patents are a good measure of much of anything, particularly for software. Patents in software IMHO are largely a measure of the earning ability of local patent lawyers.

          2. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Personally, if there had been jobs in either Roanoke or Charlottesville, I would have built a career there instead of the Richmond area.

            News flash – there are plenty of innovators and tech folks – who do not have to be young – who actually like areas like Roanoke and Charlottesville. Those areas are well worth the investment.

            If I saw growth to justify it, I would open an office in Roanoke or Charlottesville. You couldn’t get me to move to the DC metro area under any circumstances. I don’t give a rat’s patootie about high speed rail to DC and I’m not personally interested in living in a mixed use development. I do care about proximity of agricultural land where I can keep horses.

            Speaking as an older techie, starting a tech business, that happens to like horses and organic gardening and raising my own veggies, these are areas I could get people I know to move to. Maybe not 21 year olds in hoodies, but older skilled techies raising or having raised a family, yes.

      2. larryg Avatar
        larryg

        re: ” While I think that over-regulation is a significant factor *nationally* and in other countries for dampening new business formation, I did not say that was the case for Virginia’s relatively poor track record”

        what’s this:

        “The editorial quotes approvingly an argument I made recently that the intertwined phenomena of lackluster economic growth, persistent unemployment, stagnant wages and the income gap can be traced in large measure to the declining rate of business formation, which in turn can be traced to over-regulation. Observing that Virginia trails the national average for business startups by three-tenths of a percentage point, the editorial surveys the climate for entrepreneurship here in the Old Dominion.”

        I think this – and the other tangential points made by the RTD disregards two over-arching issues:

        1. – The Fed govt is cutting it’s spending and it’s affecting Virginia

        2. – Recent independent studies have downgraded Virginia for having less business-friendly policies than other states.

        talking about craft beers, stadium deals, and “over-regulation” instead – renders RTD’s ruminations as not only not very relevant but more partisan talking points than meaningful dialogue.

        what exactly did RTD actually contribute?

        You guys have to get off this “regulation” narrative. yes.. there is some bad regulation but it’s not what is really affecting the economy.

        1. – all the yammering about cutting Federal spending is coming true – and it has REAL impacts – because jobs – even govt jobs have multiplier effects that cause the opposite – a shrinking economy because of jobs that rely of govt employee spending… also go away.

        2. – automation – more and more companies are leveraging technology to replace people with machines… because machines do not require pensions, 401K, health insurance or complain when they are “retired”.

        3. globalization. The guy in China or Mexico is willing to do the same thing an American is for 1/3 the cost because the guy in China or Pakistan does not live in a 3000 square foot home and own 3 cars and use twice as much electricity and fuel as the American worker does.

        4. health care is separated from employers in other countries so it’s no longer a cost to the employer that frees them up to compete on a global basis against companies in the US that have that as an embedded cost.

        5. other countries do not have universal health care that is delivered at ERs at ER prices… DUH!

        6. other counties employees have portable retirement AND portable healthcare that allows them to change jobs without worrying about “losing” their health insurance.

        7. other countries kids know how to use critical thinking in solving real world problems while our kids rank 25th in that skill.

        8. we keep pretending that kids will get a better education if we do away with SOLs and NCLB and let the private sector deliver education with no accountability – just like the for-profit colleges do with our servicemen with GI benefits.

        9. We have truly flabby academic standards where at most of schools that brag about AP – which is not only not in math and science but in many schools has a 25% pass rate on the AP exams.

        10. we are spoiled and think we are “entitled” to a good paying job with benefits (or welfare) whereas the rest of the world knows there is no guarantee unless you work your butt off ( like we used to do).

        when I hear RTD start fessing up to these realities, I’ll stop calling their words – “blather”.

        1. Tysons Engineer Avatar
          Tysons Engineer

          This couldn’t be further from the issue.

          It isn’t the education. I don’t buy for a second that kids today aren’t smarter than kids from 40 years ago. Sorry. It aint true. The average kid today is vastly superior to the average kid from the 1960s and before (when the economy was booming).

          And by the way, for the past 20 years our country’s economy has been booming… just in Tech not manufacturing. Manufacturing is dying, but tech has never been hotter. The problem here isn’t that kids aren’t smart enough, its that the jobs that are open used to be only for the top 10 percentile of graduates… but now the numbers that are open are pushing much further than the supply can handle, and more specialized, and smarter.

          It isn’t about the education in rural VA, its about the geography. The smart kids, they leave, and I don’t blame them. If you are a real talent, and someone says, theres a job in NYC with a great firm on marquee projects but you’ll start at the bottom… and someone else says theres a job in Wise County, we work on a project no one has ever heard of, but you’ll be a higher up

          Yea most millennials will take NYC, or DC, or Boston, or SF

          Its a classic case of brain drain. If a region is backwards, stuck in the past, and unwelcoming, it is destined to eventually die on the vine with the next generation.

          1. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            “smart” is not the same as “educated” much less having the ability to use critical thinking to solve real world problems.

            Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand kids all beat the pants off US kids in the critical thinking areas and they do get their share of the 10% you speak of.

            there are no “smart kids” in Rural Va if the school they go to – sucks and no they can’t leave if they live with their parents – and are not educated enough to actually go compete for a job in NoVa when their competition are folks who graduated from Fairfax High School.

            We are in denial about this.

            In a world where people are building drones, networked traffic signals, more and more devices that move gobs of data for all manner of economic reasons – you have to have solid, robust academic skills – in language and math – just to compete. Otherwise -you serve lattes at Starbucks and be thankful that they treat their employees better than other minimum-wage employers.

            You may also want to be aware – that millineals like to play -active outdoor sports, ski, kayak, mountain bike, and it’s not unusual for them to own a Subaru with racks and to tool down an Interstate to a desired outdoor venue.

            It’s not that we don’t have “smart” kids, we do – but our kids pale in comparison to European, Asian kids who are also competing for global jobs in a global economy. More and more companies are not only international but they hold no particular allegiance to the US or US cities.

            We are going to get our clock cleaned if we don’t wake up. We’re going to have the nicest walkable urban areas – full of people getting entitlements or working for foreign-speaking bosses.

          2. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: ” And by the way, for the past 20 years our country’s economy has been booming… just in Tech not manufacturing.”

            agree.

            “Manufacturing is dying, but tech has never been hotter.”

            I’d suggest you think about things like cars, cell phones, drones, autonomous cars/vehicles, etc, etc. They are all STILL manufactured but it is done by machines – which are operated by people who can read a technical manual written by other people who design the automated factories.

            the jobs – now require critical thinking skills – don’t take my word – go ask most big enterprise CEOs – they want people who can read and understand technological concepts.

            ” The problem here isn’t that kids aren’t smart enough, its that the jobs that are open used to be only for the top 10 percentile of graduates… but now the numbers that are open are pushing much further than the supply can handle, and more specialized, and smarter.”

            we might be saying similar things . you seem to be saying that demand exceeds supply because only the top 10% have what is required.

            no?

            for instance, we STILL – manufacture cars – but those cars now have things like onboard internet, blue-tooth communication, navigation, braking systems that use radar and other sensor technology, ABS brakes, wireless entry… etc, etc… this is STILL manufacturing – but it’s not 21st century .

            someone has to design and build all these modern add-ons to automobiles. They’re just no longer on the assembly line – because someone else designed and built the robots …

          3. Tysons Engineer Avatar
            Tysons Engineer

            Yes and no Larry.

            They want people with critical thinking skills, but they dont want to hire from the pool of people with STEM knowledge because its too expensive. They essentially want their cake and to eat it too. They want highly educated people, willing to work for manufacturing wages… there seems to be a problem with that when those same people can get jobs at the pick of the litter.

            The 10% vs 20% is a crucial problem, and the above highlights it. Before tech was only asking on 10% of the population for its ranks, that was essentially about the right mix. There is still that 10% population, heck maybe higher, but now the open jobs are looking for 20% of the population. The lack of brain power comes from the fact that we have expanded the field without a comparable increase in how many people are in that top knowledge bracket.

            Its not that kids in Europe are XyZ, the same ones that are that smart, are the same ones here, its just that the demand for them in Europe isn’t as great as in the US with a much larger demand from the STEM fields.

            Beyond that there is a huge regionalism to it. STEM jobs in areas that are not prefered to this generation are going unfilled because the politics and culture of those areas create a brain drain. See why Austin has become so successful while Birmingham has not.

            Even Houston and Dallas have come a looong way in catering to this population. same with Phoenix, and of course the Denver/Salt Lake/Provo region which went all in a decade ago. They are islands in a sea of areas no one wants to live in however.

          4. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: ” They want highly educated people, willing to work for manufacturing wages… there seems to be a problem with that when those same people can get jobs at the pick of the litter.”

            labor – even high skill labor is still a supply/demand dynamic and employers won’t pay more than it takes to get the help that they want – including contracting with a company overseas. It’s just the economic reality.

            “The 10% vs 20% is a crucial problem, and the above highlights it. Before tech was only asking on 10% of the population for its ranks, that was essentially about the right mix. There is still that 10% population, heck maybe higher, but now the open jobs are looking for 20% of the population. The lack of brain power comes from the fact that we have expanded the field without a comparable increase in how many people are in that top knowledge bracket.”

            okay. HOW do you INCREASE the top knowledge bracket?

            “Its not that kids in Europe are XyZ, the same ones that are that smart, are the same ones here, its just that the demand for them in Europe isn’t as great as in the US with a much larger demand from the STEM fields.”

            you oughta look at that US patent site – you might be surprised that foreign corporations have more U.S. patents than US corporations..

            I just don’t see how we compete if we don’t up our game in education …to be competitive with Europe and Asia education standards – otherwise, our companies are going to start to import high skill labor and/or outsource the work.

            Our companies have another disadvantage. They have to pay health care benefits while the European and Asian companies do not. That adds up to a thousands of dollars a year competitive disadvantage.

          5. Tysons Engineer Avatar
            Tysons Engineer

            On the foreign patent vs US patent.

            Yes my brother works for one of these (and hes the creator of many of those patents). They hold the patent, but hes a US citizen who created it 😉 It gets tricky when the foreign company is in the US, with lots of US employees.

            On the supply demand issue. Well yea, but instead of paying STEM people to do those jobs that they want STEM workers in, they just beg for immigration policy to allow them to bring them in from over seas… not because those people are smarter, but because they’ll work for cheaper because they don’t realize they should be paid more. One could call this globalization, and I for one am in favor of bringing smart folks in no matter where in the world they are from, but this is being used to very much stagnate wage growth, not to fill a need that cant otherwise be filled (if they were willing to spend the money).

          6. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: ” but because they’ll work for cheaper because they don’t realize they should be paid more. One could call this globalization, and I for one am in favor of bringing smart folks in no matter where in the world they are from, but this is being used to very much stagnate wage growth, not to fill a need that cant otherwise be filled (if they were willing to spend the money).”

            yes… several in this blog have complained about this and I’m not happy about it nor support it – but it is the unfortunate reality of two things 1. globalization and 2. Europe and Japan education systems producing highly educated, critical-thinking skilled employees – who WILL work for less but it’s equal to or more than they make now – and if we don’t allow them to be imported – then the company will outsource or partner with a foreign company.

            I think that ultimately ObamaCare is going to become involved in the equation because employees now – foreign or domestic cannot reasonably expect to stay with one company for a long time – and the folks that have portable health care are going to be more flexible and more able to be nimble in their job movements – like their European and Asia counterparts.

            That makes US employees who want/need employer-provided health insurance – even more expensive compared to lower-wages overseas.

            In the end – it’s going to be about the prospective employee – their demonstrated skills – and their cost…

            Our choice domestically is not a battle between higher wage and lower wage – it’s a battle between – a competitive global-base wage – or – no job and reliance on entitlements – which is going to put even more pressure on those who pay US taxes.

            We are going to have to downsize our 3000 sq ft homes to the kind you’re talking about in Tysons Condos… the MacMansions in Loudoun are zombie dinosaurs.

          7. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Speaking as a smart person who left SW Va after college, I didn’t leave because I wanted to. I left because there were no tech jobs.

            If there were tech jobs, my preference was to live in the mountains, first choice would have been C’ville, and I would definitely have considered Roanoke. I also looked at Blacksburg.

            Don’t focus just on millennials. People who are not married want to be in area where there is plenty of choice in the dating pool. That isn’t your whole life.

          8. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: ” If I saw growth to justify it, I would open an office in Roanoke or Charlottesville.”

            okay – but whether it is Charlottesville or Bland County – there are activities that are utilizing and upgrading to more modern technologies – and businesses that do provide the services.

            There is a tension between what one wants to do as an individual vs what they don’t want to do – that self-limits the choices that are available.

            and there are people and companies that are more willing to be more flexible, more adaptable, more innovative, etc – the void will be filled.

            I’m not speaking for or against people’s life choices – just pointing out that there is demand for technologies in the market and the more knowledge and skill a person has – the wider the choices available.

            here’s a good article about it:

            http://techcrunch.com/2014/08/16/bridging-the-stem-talent-gap-is-not-about-degrees-but-skill-sets/

            it’s not about STEM – it’s the kind of thinking that a STEM person would use – and now that KIND of education and skill – is needed in more and more of the jobs that are available.

            When you book a hotel room in Roanoke or even Norton – that motel is on a communication network to handle the reservations. It has a computerized security system. It needs to be able to create coded key cards..etc, etc.

            what’s different is that while there might be 50-100 motels in Roanoke there are 5, 10 times that many in the bigger more urban places but – the technology in use – is still advancing in all those places.

            I’m explicitly excluding the idea that someone could get a knowledge-based tech job while living in the boondocks – as anything more than a niche in the bigger world of jobs. Somewhere there is a test bed for everything from navigation systems for cars to blue-tooth-enable phone apps that open locked doors… to a drone mapping local terrain for input into their GIS system.

            over and over – the need is for people who are have robust educations that enable them to read a tech manual, understand a concept, and be able to ramp up on whatever software-driven hardware critter that is deployed.

            People used to get “specialized” training for specific things – now – just about everything in the world is some piece of hardware with a software brain.

            It’s not ONLY the software and hardware that needs to be understood – it’s what it is doing – and why and what’s a well-designed system and what needs work. The companies that succeed now days have the kind of people who can solve these kinds of problems – quickly. That’s the demand. It may require, for instance, a person who knows one computer language to move quickly into another.. or quickly understand why version 2 of a hardware critter is better than version 1..etc..

            workers have to have more holistic – attitudes, perspectives about the VALUE of what is needed… in a rapidly evolving world.

            This is WHY you see a tech company like Google or Facebook – buying up start-ups .. bidding up the price of start-ups – who have grabbed a hold of some innovation – before someone else and long before the bigger companies could do so organically ….

            in short – we live in a globalized world that is technology driven – and the horizons are virtually unlimited – for those that can keep up.

          9. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Larry, I know – actually know, not speculating – a fairly sizeable number of people who have knowledge-based tech jobs, live in what you call the boondocks, and telecommute or drive long distances in to work. In Virginia. It’s actually fairly common.

            I also know – not speculating – that there are a decent number of techies working in and around universities in Blacksburg, Charlottesville, Harrisonburg, and Roanoke, either for the university or in startups that grew up around the university.

            I’m not suggesting this is the case in say, Narrows or Pearisburg – but I will point out that both Narrows and Pearisburg are within commuting distance of Blacksburg. Come to think of it, I know – again, know, not speculating – at least one person with a master’s degree and some doctoral work in a hard science from that area – Narrows and Pearisburg – that stayed in SW VA.

            I’ll also point out that major research in both drones and smart roads is taking place in Blacksburg.

            Telecommuting is not a niche in technical employment.

            Virginia is not taking advantage of more than half the state. I frequently find it amazing that people have no problem believing that smart people can come from China or India, but flatly refuse to believe that there are brains and talent in Virginia west of Richmond.

          10. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: ” Larry, I know – actually know, not speculating – a fairly sizeable number of people who have knowledge-based tech jobs, live in what you call the boondocks, and telecommute or drive long distances in to work. In Virginia. It’s actually fairly common.”

            I know them also – what I’m saying is that you do limit your options when you make that choice.

            “I also know – not speculating – that there are a decent number of techies working in and around universities in Blacksburg, Charlottesville, Harrisonburg, and Roanoke, either for the university or in startups that grew up around the university.”

            hardly surprised…

            “I’m not suggesting this is the case in say, Narrows or Pearisburg – but I will point out that both Narrows and Pearisburg are within commuting distance of Blacksburg. Come to think of it, I know – again, know, not speculating – at least one person with a master’s degree and some doctoral work in a hard science from that area – Narrows and Pearisburg – that stayed in SW VA.”

            in the age of the internet and good arterial roads, – many more options are available to people – in terms of choosing your work and choosing your residence …

            “I’ll also point out that major research in both drones and smart roads is taking place in Blacksburg.

            Telecommuting is not a niche in technical employment.”

            I’m from Fredericksburg. My perspective is that there are a whale of a lot of commuters.. even though for years and years we have talked about and built “tele-commuting” centers. They don’t do well but I still favor them – all through the state but I just point out that telecommuting can limit some of your job options ; a good number of jobs, even knowledge-based need (often secure), labs and testbeds and people to staff them. You can write software for something in Covington, Va.. but how are you going to test it in a real environment?

            “Virginia is not taking advantage of more than half the state. I frequently find it amazing that people have no problem believing that smart people can come from China or India, but flatly refuse to believe that there are brains and talent in Virginia west of Richmond.”

            We totally AGREE! where we don’t is what employers should pay and I’m a person who has a pragmatic view of supply/demand for products – and for labor.. it’s just the reality… if we try to put controls on it – it forces those companies offshore… and overseas… so the future may well be that we live more like the folks in Europe than the folks in Loudoun… in the future.

          11. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Larry, the choice with H1B is not between a lower wage job and no job. H1B is being abused.

            The issue, bluntly, is that you have some tech jobs that cannot be easily outsourced, and H1B has been hijacked to allow companies to set up in the US, staffed primarily with H1B’s, which are specifically used to replace those US workers.

            Work that has to stay here is then done by the H1B’s, and everything else is outsourced overseas.

            These are not areas of shortage – these are areas where you have existing US workers in existing jobs, that outsourcing companies want to replace with cheaper H1B workers.

            That is not what H1B is supposed to be used for.

            The Times Dispatch had an op-ed about this, with someone complaining about “unfair” new restrictions proposed on companies that have 15% or more of their workforce on H1B. Those restrictions complained about were specifically in response to abuse of the H1B program. There were buzzwords like “efficiency”, which basically means, ditch the more expensive US workers.

            Allowing companies to do this does not save US jobs. These are already jobs that can’t be outsourced, with existing US workers. This simply depresses wages further and displaces workers that already live here.

            H1B is supposed to be to address areas of shortage. A shortage of tech workers willing to have their wages reduced to 25K per year is not an actual shortage.

          12. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: H1B – keep talking, you might convince me…

            😉

            but I tend to think protectionist policies in a global world backfire.

            If you cut off the H1B – do they leave and go overseas?

          13. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Tysons, the interesting thing is, there are marquee projects in SW VA – world class research in things like drone technology and smart roads – but Virginia policy makers seem entirely focused on Richmond and NoVa.

            A kid going to Blacksburg to work on one of those projects is likely to be working on more important technology than one going to Boston or Palo Alto to do another social media app.

            We’re not taking advantage of our assets. I hear about tourism all the time. I don’t hear about technology – and we have those companies, and not just in NoVa – it just seems like the Powers that Be are not very interested in them.

          14. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: RoVa –

            virginiagal – do you think RoVa education produces technology and knowledge based – ready – workers?

            do you think an employer would pick a SW ROVA HS grad over a H1B guy from Europe?

            do you think Va needs to step-up it’s efforts to deliver globally-competitive education to RoVa?

          15. Tysons Engineer Avatar
            Tysons Engineer

            VAgal

            You gotta look at the numbers behind the enrollments at VTech and UVA

            They aren’t coming from southwest VA. The plurality of students in both schools come from Fairfax, Arlington, and Loudoun by far (faaaaaar) compared to any other areas. Its not shocking therefore, after they graduate, that they move back home, not stay in their college town. They go back to their home location where they have always lived. Some stay at the college locations, some move off to SF or NYC, but the vast majority go back where they came from for the short term atleast immediately after graduation.

            So while Tech and UVA are doing some good work, its with imported talent from NOVA and Richmond because that is also where the good high schools are and where the good jobs are.

            By the way, I am an engineer from Tech. Many of my friends from Braddock here in Fairfax also were. We called tech 13th grade, as we also did with those that went to UVA.

            PSS the person who said UVA = less than Duke VATech = NCState. Give me a fricken break. I had offers from both, I’m an engineer, I went to VaTech because its engineering college is far superior to UVAs. I also had offers from GaTech and Ohio State for the record. The admissions into Techs engineering school were actually more stringent in 2001 than to UVAs engineering college.

            Perhaps for law or some other bogus BA pre-grad profession its harder to get into UVA, but engineering, Tech is a top 10.

          16. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            I highly recommend this to see how Va k-12 schools are doing with things like Advanced Placement:

            http://projects.propublica.org/schools/

            Fairfax is head and shoulders above many schools not only rural but suburban RoVa.. schools like Henrico and Stafford…

          17. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Larry, I’m not talking about “telecommuting centers” -offhand I can’t think of anyone who uses those. I’m talking about telecommuting from a home office, and I know dozens of people and companies who do that.

            An article I ran across recently in Forbes commented that 35-45% of the staff of companies she consulted for telecommuted at least part of the time.

            If I want to write software in Covington, I get on the Internet, connect via VPN, log in to the test environment, and test just like I’m in the office. I have full access to the testbed and the real environment. I have a friend who heads a software company in Seattle, and he does a lot of his work from Hawaii. Doesn’t make a difference.

            Being able to work remote is the norm – with the exception that law enforcement, Defense, military, and Homeland Security typically don’t accommodate remote work. Pretty much everybody else does.

          18. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: ” Larry, I’m not talking about “telecommuting centers” -offhand I can’t think of anyone who uses those. I’m talking about telecommuting from a home office, and I know dozens of people and companies who do that.”

            there are quite a few in my area also.. I personally know some.

            “An article I ran across recently in Forbes commented that 35-45% of the staff of companies she consulted for telecommuted at least part of the time.”

            yes… but what I’m pointing out is that is an option that is a subset of other options – and it is also the option that has the most folks wanting it verses the spots that are available – that, in turn, affects the supply/demand labor price.

            “If I want to write software in Covington, I dial in via VPN, log in to the test environment, and test just like I’m in the office. I have full access to the testbed and the real environment. I have a friend who heads a software company in Seattle, and he does a lot of his work from Hawaii. Doesn’t make a difference.”

            some testbeds yes.. others not.. if you are writing code for an embedded system – say software to operate a drone. At some point -you have to load the software and fly the thing – and capture the instrumentation outputs.

            “Being able to work remote is the norm – with the exception that law enforcement, Defense, military, and Homeland Security typically don’t accommodate remote work. Pretty much everybody else does.”

            how would you explain the 80,000 cars a day – every day on I-95 north to NoVa?

            you’re describing a subset of software development – and also.. if you can tele-commute – doesn’t that mean offshore can too? software starts with a CONOPS, then requirements, then design, then coding, then V&V, then deployment, maintenance and configuration management. Some aspects can be done remote – others cannot… but especially so with embedded systems.

            think in terms of anything hardware that has software operating it. You can write the software report. How do you test it on the hardware if that hardware is in a lab and not on a network? Say software to go into an automobile computer? How would you test that software was loaded into the auto computer?

          19. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            re: RoVa –

            Larry, yes, I know many schools in RoVA produce technology and knowledge based ready workers.

            I looked at the Newsweek list of the top 2000 high schools in America. 66 in Virginia were on it. Of those 66, 16 were in the Roanoke, Charlottesville, Blacksburg, Harrisonburg, Bristol, or Lynchburg areas.

            Given the accomplishments and success of several of my classmates from what was actually a pretty good high school in RoVA, I know that there are schools out there that are globally competitive.

            Finally, yes, I think Va needs to step-up it’s efforts to deliver globally-competitive education to RoVa but I also think it would help to focus on encouraging economic development in RoVa. Not picking and choosing winners – I’m not a fan of subsidies – but publicity, networking, making people realize the strengths that do exist in these areas.

            Municipal broadband would help a lot, too.

          20. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: ” Given the accomplishments and success of several of my classmates from what was actually a pretty good high school in RoVA, I know that there are schools out there that are globally competitive.”

            not competitive enough in my view… given the NAEP and PISA data and our own CEOs .. like Gates and Buffet, etc..

            “Finally, yes, I think nk Va needs to step-up it’s efforts to deliver globally-competitive education to RoVa but I also think it would help to focus on encouraging economic development in RoVa. Not picking and choosing winners, but publicity, networking, making people realize the strengths that do exist in these areas.”

            I’m basically a pragmatic optimist… I’m tough on the issues – our schools are good – but they are not good enough and education is purest form of economic development .. everything else becomes what you do if you don’t have a highly educated workforce.. because – .. if you have that workforce – you don’t need to “attract” employers.. they want to be here for the human capital… sort of my version of Richard Florida blathering about “creative” people… which he fairly notes – capitalize on your assets that will attract the young and highly educated…

            Blacksburg is a magnet for the young who are active- that like to bike, hike, ski, kayak, etc…

            I think one of the biggest economic development measures that Virginia could do – is beef up it’s Community College network especially in the rural areas – provide access and opportunity to kids via things like dual enrollment and guaranteed transfers to 4-year institutions, but also significant certificate programs in technology…

            I’m optimistic that we can do much more – and I think one of our biggest obstacles is our own thinking that we are ‘okay’ on education.. we’re not.

            every kid that does not get a job – not college, research, software, etc.. just a job – that requires more education than before – because even basic jobs like HVAC and auto repair have been infused with technology.. cars, HVACs, x-rays, etc.. all of those things now have embedded computers.. in them and require someone to be able to read the tech manual – and understand how to properly configure the machine to do specified tasks, etc.

            one of our over-arching challenges is to up our game for the non-college workforce so do not drown financially with entitlements for those who lack the education for anything but minimum-wage… Either we do that, or we better start building more prisons..

          21. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Hi Tysons –

            Actually, I did look it up, and while it isn’t a majority, quite a few students at Tech come from SWVA. For 2013, I show 439 newly admitted undergrads from SWVA, with 111 from Montgomery County, 32 from Roanoke city, and 53 from Roanoke county.

            That’s way less than the number from NoVa – but it’s significant.

            The same year, I show 243 transfer students to Tech who are from SWVA (nearly as many as the 334 from NoVa) and 257 graduate students at Tech who are from SWVA – versus 392 from NoVa. Not bad, given the population difference in the two areas.

            I’m not claiming a majority of Tech students are from SWVA. What I am saying is a bit different.

            The people that I know who stayed and started companies in Blacksburg are largely from SWVA – places like Roanoke, Blacksburg, Christiansburg, Giles County, etc. Many of them want to stay.

            The people that I know who live in C’ville post graduation are a different mix. It does include people from SWVA, but you get a goodly number from other parts of the country who just like it a lot. Charlottesville, I can tell you from personal experience, is a very nice place to live.

            As far as NoVA and Richmond being where the good high schools are, again, as I mentioned to Larry, leaving out NoVa, Richmond, and Hampton Roads, 16 of 66 Virginia high schools on Newsweek’s list of best high schools in the US are in RoVa. There were 4 in the Roanoke/Salem area, 4 in the Charlottesville/Albemarle county area, 2 in the Lynchburg/Bedford area, and one each around Blacksburg, Danville, Harrisonburg, and Bristol.

            BTW, off topic, I agree that Tech has the better engineering school. It’s really, really good.

          22. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            googld Pro-Pulica Schools to look at Virginia AP enrollment and exam performance:

            it’s not a pretty picture for most schools.. Hampton is not bad at SOME of it’s high schools:

            http://projects.propublica.org/schools/schools/510180099996?multi=true#510180000747,510180000731,510264001076,510267001098,510415001820

            look at the advanced math percent.. that’s fairly typical in Va schools even the better ones.

            just about any embedded system in something that moves – or has sensors, etc, needs a robust math background.. more than programming – knowing how to represent objects that move in 3d/6d space in algorithms (that are then converted to code) … requires “more” than most kids receive at most high schools – even though the material is available.. differential equations, linear Algebra, Matrix theory, etc. Math is how you describe objects that move in the earth environment whether they be cars, planes, drones, ships, undersea vehicles, satellites, etc…

            these disciplines are where the 21st century jobs are…

          23. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Larry, I don’t think that most 21st century jobs are going to require upper level math, including most software jobs. And I say that as someone who has both taken a ton of upper level math, and worked in software since the mid 80’s.

            I think it’s good for kids to take calculus, and I think linear algebra is a good thing to take in college, but I don’t expect high school kids to necessarily take AP math, and most software jobs do not need linear algebra, differential equations, etc. And that includes kids that want to work in software for a living.

            The actual number of jobs that require knowing the math to represent movement in 3d space are going to be very limited, and most of them are going to go to PhD engineers.

            Google’s car team is 12 engineers (PhD engineers – source, ACM article on the project.) The plan appears to be to work up the equivalent of an SDK (software development kit) for car manufacturers to use. The SDK hides the underlying complexity of the math.

            Liability reasons alone, most companies are not going to want to develop their own SDK for cars. Same goes for drones – there will probably be several commercial variants there (for different things people want to do with drones) – most of them will probably be developed by a handful of people – they will be tested all to heck and back – and then licensed to multiple manufacturers. Defense is different, but that’s not the majority of software jobs.

            The company that Jim was talking about the other day, the Internet of Things company? That’s what they do, for devices – it’s a platform that others can use for their Internet of Things applications. If this company is successful (and it looks likely to be) it’s going to be successful precisely because most device manufacturers would like to have a standard platform rather than develop their own platform from scratch.

            If everyone develops their own platform, there would be no need for an IOT platform company.

            Think of how software is used in other situations.

            People who code for the web do fairly complex things with user interfaces. The underlying logic is often surprisingly complex. BUT – the actual code that web developers write isn’t nearly that complex, because much of the complexity is in the tools and libraries that are already written by someone else. Web programmers use those tools and libraries, which hide the complexity.

            When I need interactivity in a user interface, I don’t write my own JavaScript and jQuery equivalents, because Brendan Eich and and John Resig and Dave Methvin and the rest have already done it for me.

            What that means is that hundreds of thousands of people who couldn’t write JavaScript and jQuery if their life depended on it now get to use all the functionality off JavaScript and jQuery.

            If I want my website to work with maps and GPS, I can do the math myself, and test it, and test it – and realize, developer time isn’t free – or I can use
            https://developers.google.com/maps/documentation/javascript/geometry

            That sort of tool allows people who can’t do the math, to do what they want to do – because the tool encapsulates the math, asks you for the inputs, and returns what you need – without requiring you to do the math yourself.

            That is the norm in software development, not a one-off.

            With IOT, what is going to happen is, you will have a small number of very highly educated and skilled people writing tools that others will use. You will not have a hundred companies reinventing the wheel for car control, any more than you have a hundred companies writing their own web scripting languages today. The only large organization I know of that does that a lot -reinvents the wheel – is the US government, military and otherwise.

            Writing your own car and drone control libraries is very unlikely to represent a significant percentage of software jobs.

          24. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: ” Larry, I don’t think that most 21st century jobs are going to require upper level math, including most software jobs. And I say that as someone who has both taken a ton of upper level math, and worked in software since the mid 80’s.”

            I have also and I can tell you that software needs mathematical algorithms if it is embedded in equipment and vehicles. Think about your own car VirginiaGal.. cars are giant computers right now with internet, radar, ABS, crash avoidance, traffic data, etc.

            “I think it’s good for kids to take calculus, and I think linear algebra is a good thing to take in college, but I don’t expect high school kids to necessarily take AP math, and most software jobs do not need linear algebra, differential equations, etc. And that includes kids that want to work in software for a living.”

            you’re not considering all the things that now use embedded computer systems. Think of a cell tower and queueing theory that is behind how it handles connections. think of a rail network that is sensing every train’s location and setting switches while holding up others. Think of Walmart when you buy things and the scanner is not only the check out but a gigantic logistics supply – inventory system.

            All of these require math and math-type thinking to design the algorithms that need to be coded.

            “The actual number of jobs that require knowing the math to represent movement in 3d space are going to be very limited, and most of them are going to go to PhD engineers.”

            the direct math – yes – but it’s math/stem “thinking skills” that are necessary to know HOW to embed the algorithms in the software environment. You do not get off the shelf – they have to be customized to the application.

            “Google’s car team is 12 engineers (PhD engineers – source, ACM article on the project.) The plan appears to be to work up the equivalent of an SDK (software development kit) for car manufacturers to use. The SDK hides the underlying complexity of the math.”

            wrong. you have how many different kinds of cars and trucks with different models and different equipment that all have embedded computer systems. This is no Universal SDK kit.

            Liability reasons alone, most companies are not going to want to develop their own SDK for cars. Same goes for drones – there will probably be several commercial variants there (for different things people want to do with drones) – most of them will probably be developed by a handful of people – they will be tested all to heck and back – and then licensed to multiple manufacturers. Defense is different, but that’s not the majority of software jobs.”

            there are MILLIONs of embedded computer applications and it’s growing. It used to be the exclusive domain of DOD and weapons but it’s now exploded into the private sector. An example is GPS – designed by the govt – but now pervasive in the world… there are hundreds of different GPS map applications – now and much work remains to make them better – for instance, GPS that can not only show you traffic but can route you around an incident in real time. In Richmond, your GPS knows that Springfield in DC is bulloxed and finds you the best available alternate route. Overhead signs are now going to be on a network advising you of similar things.

            All of these things require an approach to software that involved the use of math – knowing the right kinds of math to use in the algorithms.

            “The company that Jim was talking about the other day, the Internet of Things company? That’s what they do, for devices – it’s a platform that others can use for their Internet of Things applications. If this company is successful (and it looks likely to be) it’s going to be successful precisely because most device manufacturers would like to have a standard platform rather than develop their own platform from scratch.”

            they would, but it’s not the reality. “Android” is not one OS – it’s hundreds of forked variants… for instance.

            “If everyone develops their own platform, there would be no need for an IOT platform company.”

            in a perfect world that is totally standardized without competition and innovation – maybe… but in the real world – people do innovate products and they change.. and evolve..

            “Think of how software is used in other situations.

            People who code for the web do fairly complex things with user interfaces. The underlying logic is often surprisingly complex. BUT – the actual code that web developers write isn’t nearly that complex, because much of the complexity is in the tools and libraries that are already written by someone else. Web programmers use those tools and libraries, which hide the complexity.”

            I’ve also worked on compilers.. which start with Lalr-parsers..which are totally software critters.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LALR_parser

            “When I need interactivity in a user interface, I don’t write my own JavaScript and jQuery equivalents, because Brendan Eich and and John Resig and Dave Methvin and the rest have already done it for me.”

            I understand the concept of software “tools” but do you understand just how huge and diverse the field is nowdays when virtually every machine on the planet has an embedded computer system?

            “What that means is that hundreds of thousands of people who couldn’t write JavaScript and jQuery if their life depended on it now get to use all the functionality off JavaScript and jQuery.”

            indeed. Can they design an algorithm for radar crash avoidance for a new Mercedes truck? Could they go in to an existing algorithm and upgrade it with new data?

            “If I want my website to work with maps and GPS, I can do the math myself, and test it, and test it – and realize, developer time isn’t free – or I can use

            https://developers.google.com/maps/documentation/javascript/geometry”

            most bigger organizations have a second group do the testing – Verification and Validation.. take an xray machine meant to target cancer tumors. how do you write software – that can result in someone dying if it does not work as it should?

            “That sort of tool allows people who can’t do the math, to do what they want to do – because the tool encapsulates the math, asks you for the inputs, and returns what you need – without requiring you to do the math yourself.”

            some math is front-ended with tools.. yes.. other math – you have to actually understand what it is doing if you are going to design a system that works properly.

            “That is the norm in software development, not a one-off.”

            been there, done that.. long ago. the world today is much more complex with millions of embedded computer devices.. where you have the computer driving the thing/machine/etc.. take a robot – what determines it’s movement? Software does that but how does software determine how many inches it’s right foot should move? that’s where you have sensors and algorithms working in a software environment to get the right answer – in real time – at the same time it’s also working on the left foot advance.

            “With IOT, what is going to happen is, you will have a small number of very highly educated and skilled people writing tools that others will use. You will not have a hundred companies reinventing the wheel for car control, any more than you have a hundred companies writing their own web scripting languages today”

            Each brand is different. Each brand has multiple models. the models themselves change with new model years.. You have to have a crash testbed to test how the embedded computer system – actually functions ..

            . “The only large organization I know of that does that a lot -reinvents the wheel – is the US government, military and otherwise.”

            think about how many model cars GM has – alone.. over the last 10 years and in the upcoming years. You may have someone in Covington writing a small pre-defined widget – but someone else all those widgets get embedded in a real vehicle that goes down a real track and encounters real obstacles, etc…. BEFORE they go produce hundreds/thousands of embedded computers with those widgets that then get installed on an assembly line.

            When you drive your car into your dealer now – it has a plug for computer hookup. On the other end is a computer that is interrogating the car’s computer to determine what kind of computer it is, what hardware and software version, etc then data starts to move and the diagnostic computer starts to process the data and providing on-screen/paper statuses.

            that’s just one system that has dozens,hundreds of embedded computers, sensors, for different models, etc.

            Writing your own car and drone control libraries is very unlikely to represent a significant percentage of software jobs.

            see above. you don’t believe it .. I can’t convince you – but the world needs much more highly educated folks to deal with the explosion of embedded computer systems… in hundreds of different major fields from drones, to cell towers, to transportation networks, …

            some things are off-the-shelf, stand-alone, software -like an app on a Smartphone but even simple things like an App that talks to bluetooth – starts to get into different phones using different bluetooth standards to, in turn, talk to bluetooth devices that themselves are different and have different protocols.

            it’s not heavy duty theoretical math – but it requires the rigor and competence equivalent to higher math to deal with the huge and diverse environments.

            less than 20% of kids in most high schools take the more robust math – even in the good high schools.

            Again – it’s not core STEM – it’s the KIND of thinking that STEM utilizes that is now spreading to the proliferation of embedded computer systems in the world.

            You cannot successfully write software for a 3 ton vehicle that is going to have a radar unit to bring it to a halt unless you understand the physical environment and dynamics.. you end up depending on someone else to tell you what the algorithm to be coded looks like.. as you’d not have a clue.. you become essentially a translator … not a designer. You understand the words but you don’t know what they really mean.

          25. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Larry, I think a high school that produces globally competitive graduates – and this one has – can probably accurately be described as globally competitive.

            I totally disagree with the idea that, if you have a good local workforce, you don’t need to attract employers. That is wishful thinking. NoVa is not NoVa because it had smarter people, it’s NoVa because it had a ton of government money and things grew up around that money to get some of it.

            To a lesser degree, Richmond’s economy is significantly enabled by the state government and state jobs.

            Those jobs have a ripple effect – if a spouse has a steady state or federal job, it’s easier for the other spouse to take a chance. This was a bigger deal pre-ACA, but it’s still a factor.

            The areas I’m talking about – Charlottesville, Blacksburg, Roanoke, Harrisonburg – have highly skilled and educated people, including young people who would like to stay and can’t because the jobs are not there. That’s finally changing, gradually, but it is truly annoying to look at the high school listings, see many schools highly ranked, and then hear these areas disparaged as providing an inferior education.

            Part of that is a self-fulfilling narrative, IMHO. Over and over, here and in conversations, I hear narratives about how all the good schools are in NoVa or Richmond. That isn’t true, but it’s believed by a lot of people.

            My first week at UVA, I was informed that a SWVA city was the “armpit of Virginia” by a NoVa native, who was convinced he had a better education than I did – despite the fact my SAT scores blew his out of the water, and I’d been recruited by MIT and GaTech and Smith and a bunch of other schools. But hey, I was from SWVA, so no way I could have good SAT scores or math skills, amiright?

            Most people see what they expect to see. Including business people.

          26. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            Larry, I think a high school that produces globally competitive graduates – and this one has – can probably accurately be described as globally competitive.

            I totally disagree with the idea that, if you have a good local workforce, you don’t need to attract employers. That is wishful thinking. NoVa is not NoVa because it had smarter people, it’s NoVa because it had a ton of government money and things grew up around that money to get some of it.”

            employers go where they are ready-to-work workforces. Check out places like Seattle, Bend, Oregon, Austin, Texas, and a dozen more places where the young and highly educated congregate. Tech companies follow.

            “To a lesser degree, Richmond’s economy is significantly enabled by the state government and state jobs.”

            I actually went to the BLS to get states and it appears that about 1/5 of Richmond is govt jobs.
            http://www.bls.gov/xg_shells/ro3fx9539.htm

            “Those jobs have a ripple effect – if a spouse has a steady state or federal job, it’s easier for the other spouse to take a chance. This was a bigger deal pre-ACA, but it’s still a factor.”

            oh we AGREE again!

            “The areas I’m talking about – Charlottesville, Blacksburg, Roanoke, Harrisonburg – have highly skilled and educated people, including young people who would like to stay and can’t because the jobs are not there. That’s finally changing, gradually, but it is truly annoying to look at the high school listings, see many schools highly ranked, and then hear these areas disparaged as providing an inferior education.”

            I work from data.. on the HS.. I can provide you with links to it, The best schools in the country are in Massachusetts and New Jersey believe it or not. Va is about 10th – much better than the South but down significantly from the top schools in the country. Many schools in Va have a 25% pass rate in the AP enrollment and less than 20% that take higher math.

            “Part of that is a self-fulfilling narrative, IMHO. Over and over, here and in conversations, I hear narratives about how all the good schools are in NoVa or Richmond. That isn’t true, but it’s believed by a lot of people.”

            not me. There ARE schools in RoVa that are really good – as good or better than urban schools. The dirty-little-secret of Urban schools is that they’ll hae multiple high schools but not equal resources and performance.. so urban schools get the least experienced teachers and far less teachers that can teach AP – not that it matters because the k-5 schools that feed those HS have significant deficits in core academics… anyhow – those kids are doomed before they hit Middle School.

            “My first week at UVA, I was informed that a SWVA city was the “armpit of Virginia” by a NoVa native, who was convinced he had a better education than I did – despite the fact my SAT scores blew his out of the water, and I’d been recruited by MIT and GaTech and Smith and a bunch of other schools. But hey, I was from SWVA, so no way I could have good SAT scores or math skills, amiright?”

            there are very bright people from SW Va that got good educations – but how many on a percentage basis – say for your high school? that’s an important number – not just individuals. How many AP courses do they offer? Do kids take the harder math? how many AP enrolls pass the AP exams?

            Most people see what they expect to see. Including business people.

            that’s why I urge – using the data.. we all have biases and we like to feed them but data helps with the truth – but you got to want to see it… and accept it when it’s telling you something different than what you’d like to believe.

            not data from one source. Data from many sources – trust but verify it… etc. Always consider the source of studies – there are many groups with agenda’s these days.. I just don’t see a down-side to beefing up our education system especially when there are ample signs that we are not doing what we need to – to reduce dependence on government and entitlements.

            Now – don’t accuse me of being a right winger.. I’ve been continuously labeled as a lefty liberal here by Bacon and DonR and others..

            I’m a pragmatic person. I see hope for the future – if we really want to know the truth and take steps to improve ourselves and I fundamentally believe the path to real opportunity for all kids – is world-class education – delivered not with unlimited money but with serious cost-effective prioritization.

          27. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Hi Larry –

            I’d be curious as to why anyone uses a telecommuting center rather than telecommuting from home. Do you happen to know what the perceived advantages are?

            RE telecommuting being a limiting option, it is and it isn’t. If you want to telecommute 100%, it is – there are a lot of jobs, but most want you in the office at least part of the time. A good chunk accommodate that with periodic visits, but there isn’t really any one model for how often you need to visit the office and what you do there.

            OTOH, the large majority of software jobs allow/expect you to telecommute at least part of the time. If you are not prepared to dial in at night or on weekends or holidays to make a deadline, you’re going to limit your software career quite a bit or else you’d better put a cot in the office.

            Many people free-lance and consult remote, either exclusively or with occasional visits to the client’s office.

            And the vast majority of small software startups start in someone’s home. If you’re starting a small software company, you can start with brains, a PC, open source software, and fast broadband. You don’t have to have an office or much capital.

            Re embedded systems, if you’re coding for an embedded system, you are almost certainly operating it remote. It doesn’t really matter if you’re operating a drone remote from the office or remote from your home office – you’re not physically on the drone. Software load is likely to be wireless, capturing outputs is almost certainly wireless (in fact with military drones it’s both wireless and unencrypted per various news reports).

            Plus, most of the prep work is likely on a simulator until you’re ready to test, unless you’ve got a one to one test drone to developer ratio.

            Not everyone driving to NoVa is a software developer. Of those that are, a ton of them work on classified and military and Homeland Security applications that really do not like telecommuting.

            Also, there is a HUGE difference between being able to telecommute at least part of the time and being allowed to telecommute exclusively.

            Most software development outside the government is more agile and less waterfall – especially for entrepreneurial companies and startups. You have short development cycles, less formal specs, rapid revision and rework.

            Telecommuting jobs can be outsourced. A lot of people in the US who telecommute are the people it was outsourced to. Overseas outsourcing saves about 20% when you adjust for additional hard and soft costs. Many things are difficult to outsource unless you can occasionally visit the company, so overseas outsourcing is not an easy option for those tasks.

            Given that, if you’re in the same general area, you can drive into the office as needed for user or management meetings, there are advantages to being in the same general area. That doesn’t necessarily translate into a need to be in the physical office every day. You can easily drive from Roanoke or Blacksburg or Charlottesville to DC. Not a great daily commute, but no problem for periodic meetings.

            Very, very few people are going to be writing software for autos – it’s more likely to be factories, power plants, door locks, home appliances, or whatever. But for autos, why would the hardware not be on a network? Auto software typically has wireless interfaces, in fact that’s been repeatedly identified as a real world vulnerabilty at DefCon and Black Hat.

            If it’s got a wireless interface, that’s on the network, you VPN in to the network, and you test. Odds are the vast majority of your testing is going to be on a simulator, not the car, unless you have a one to one car to developer ratio, and you probably don’t. When you get to a point where you’re physically needed, then you drive in to the office, and it’s probably the whole team that tests.

          28. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re:

            ” I’d be curious as to why anyone uses a telecommuting center rather than telecommuting from home. Do you happen to know what the perceived advantages are?”

            You’re wearing me out! The answer to your question can be easily determined by one trip you might take on I-95 from Fredericksburg to NoVa at about 6am in the morning. It’s known in most local circles as the Commute to hell.

            “RE telecommuting being a limiting option, it is and it isn’t. If you want to telecommute 100%, it is – there are a lot of jobs, but most want you in the office at least part of the time. A good chunk accommodate that with periodic visits, but there isn’t really any one model for how often you need to visit the office and what you do there.”

            agree. Some folks here – work 10 hour days on site to cut one day of commuting.

            “OTOH, the large majority of software jobs allow/expect you to telecommute at least part of the time. If you are not prepared to dial in at night or on weekends or holidays to make a deadline, you’re going to limit your software career quite a bit or else you’d better put a cot in the office.”

            Oh I do agree – again.

            “Many people free-lance and consult remote, either exclusively or with occasional visits to the client’s office.”

            It’s becoming rampant – and I predict more so with the advent of portable health insurance.

            “And the vast majority of small software startups start in someone’s home. If you’re starting a small software company, you can start with brains, a PC, open source software, and fast broadband. You don’t have to have an office or much capital.”

            totally agree.. and it touches on another important point – and that is someone with a business perspective – who KNOWS the VALUE – especially in future terms of a particular software application. Bill Gates and others demonstrated that. He was much, much more than just a garage nerd.

            “Re embedded systems, if you’re coding for an embedded system, you are almost certainly operating it remote. It doesn’t really matter if you’re operating a drone remote from the office or remote from your home office – you’re not physically on the drone. Software load is likely to be wireless, capturing outputs is almost certainly wireless (in fact with military drones it’s both wireless and unencrypted per various news reports).”

            I think there are – and must be – on site-test beds for testing an assembled hardware/software system. Pieces of it can be done remote – but at some point you have an assembled unit that has to be thoroughly tested to see if it does what it was supposed to do. Here:
            http://www.iihs.org/iihs/about-us/vrc

            “Plus, most of the prep work is likely on a simulator until you’re ready to test, unless you’ve got a one to one test drone to developer ratio.”

            simulators and emulators, yes.. but then you got to run on the actual system

            “Not everyone driving to NoVa is a software developer. Of those that are, a ton of them work on classified and military and Homeland Security applications that really do not like telecommuting.”

            there are a ton of administrative folks – yes. but military and technology dominates… most of the govt tech jobs are military/contractors.

            “Also, there is a HUGE difference between being able to telecommute at least part of the time and being allowed to telecommute exclusively.”

            again we agree.

            “Most software development outside the government is more agile and less waterfall – especially for entrepreneurial companies and startups. You have short development cycles, less formal specs, rapid revision and rework.”

            rapid prototyping.. yup.. even the govt is onboard with that – which you can do the steps more concurrently if you have the right kind of configuration management tools that allow -say a design change to “flow” through the affected modules… but each basic step from Conops to requirements, design, maintenance, etc have to be done or else you end up with some of crap you see
            in the phone apps.

            “Telecommuting jobs can be outsourced. A lot of people in the US who telecommute are the people it was outsourced to. Overseas outsourcing saves about 20% when you adjust for additional hard and soft costs. Many things are difficult to outsource unless you can occasionally visit the company, so overseas outsourcing is not an easy option for those tasks.”

            yes..but if some kind of work can be outsourced to SW va… it can be outsourced overseas also – and that’s what I meant when I said there is a huge labor pool for that kind of work – which tends to lower what employers will pay.

            “Given that, if you’re in the same general area, you can drive into the office as needed for user or management meetings, there are advantages to being in the same general area. That doesn’t necessarily translate into a need to be in the physical office every day. You can easily drive from Roanoke or Blacksburg or Charlottesville to DC. Not a great daily commute, but no problem for periodic meetings.”

            agree .. and for meetings.. Go-TO-meeting or similar seems more cost effective.
            the funny thing is Go-to-Meeting comes from a company called Citrix – who started out making “x” terms – which were generic desktop CRTs that could connect to different back-end systems whether they be Unix or Windows, etc so you could sit at your desk and be actually coding software in two different windows for two different target systems.. while writing the design manual in a 3rd window!

            “Very, very few people are going to be writing software for autos – it’s more likely to be factories, power plants, door locks, home appliances, or whatever. But for autos, why would the hardware not be on a network? Auto software typically has wireless interfaces, in fact that’s been repeatedly identified as a real world vulnerabilty at DefCon and Black Hat.”

            OBDII? but yes.. encryption is yet another huge field expanding rapidly as we are learning that the govt itself is hacking into our private systems!

            “If it’s got a wireless interface, that’s on the network, you VPN in to the network, and you test. Odds are the vast majority of your testing is going to be on a simulator, not the car, unless you have a one to one car to developer ratio, and you probably don’t. When you get to a point where you’re physically needed, then you drive in to the office, and it’s probably the whole team that tests.”

            yes.. but at some point – you have the assembled product at a physical test bed.. instrumented and throwing off tons of data as they run it through it’s paces then all that data is processed/analyzed for V&V and then cycle back to the front of the process for fixes and changes..etc..

            we largely agree.. on many things… I just think we need to up our education game to go after what are increasingly more sophisticated knowledge-based jobs.

            Yes – you can find the lower level, simplier, stand-alone jobs that can be done remotely but the labor pool for that is enormous and as employers know -huge disparities in the”right” skills.

          29. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Hi Larry –

            And with all that automation in cars, the number of people working on those mathematical algorithms are very small. It’s widely used, and important, BUT it doesn’t employ a lot of people actually coding it.

            I actually AM considering all of the things that use embedded computer systems, and looking at how many people are actually employed coding them.

            Scanning to update inventory isn’t that complex. I’ve done coding on scanners, including some to do scanning and tracking over 20 years ago. Very little math required to code a scanner, because the interface is simple to use.

            Logistics and supply planning is math, and can be complex – but there aren’t a hundred people needed to code it, and most companies other than WalMart are probably using standard, COTS systems to do inventory projection. There are a ton of them available. And they are not device-specific – the inventory information is an input to them.

            The skills to know how to embed the algorithms are thinking skills, but my point is, even with that lower level of skill, it’s still relatively few people working on cars or drones, and the VAST majority of embedded systems do not require that level of math.

            Yes, for cars, there actually is likely to be a few universal SDKs – you don’t have to rewrite all of this for each car and for each truck. You take the core libraries, call them, and pass them parameters that allow for different models with different characteristics and different equipment. If necessary, you extend them. You do NOT need to rewrite the core models, any more than you would need to rewrite JavaScript for each computer monitor or smartphone.

            I agree, there are millions of embedded computer applications, but that hasn’t been the exclusive domain of DOD an weapons for decades. What do you think SCADA systems are? What do you think runs your phone or your microwave or the switches at phone company?

            Yes, there are hundreds of GPS map applications, but a ton of them run the same libraries and reuse the same code. Developers are building on publicly available code sets, using and in some cases extending them.

            Agreed, Android has a ton of variants – but you don’t need to rewrite your code for a ton of variants – the core runs apps for pretty much all variants for any specific version. That’s why IOT platform software actually does work on variants of a given version of Android. You don’t have to have sixty five versions of each app.

            I actually do understand how huge and diverse the field is nowadays with so many embedded systems. So do a lot of very smart people, which is why people use tools like Java and its equivalents, that are device and OS agnostic – to hide the complexity.

            Think encapsulation – objects, methods, and the underlying hardware and OS is largely hidden – you’re talking to APIs, not devices directly – and you extend existing tools rather than reinventing the wheel.

            I realize that testing is usually done by a separate team – but anyone on your team having to test something is a cost – and when existing software is out there, developing something from scratch, which you will have to test thoroughly, is not a good use of resources. Reinventing the wheel is something companies actively avoid.

            How many companies actually write software to run x-ray machines, or for self driving cars, or for drones? Definitely some, but it’s not a significant percentage of the job market, and it’s unlikely to ever be a significant percentage of the job market, because there are relatively few companies, and even for those companies, it is easier and more reliable to use existing tested tools than to recreate the wheel.

            For cars, you will have each brand using the tools, adjusting the inputs, and testing – yes, agreed, you have to modify and test for each. It still does not add up to a high percentage of the job market needed to do this.

            Someone working on an app that talks to Bluetooth usually doesn’t have to worry but so much about different phones and different bluetooth standards or which protocols are being used, because a lot of that is encapsulated already in the existing code libraries. That’s the purpose of the libraries. See http://developer.android.com/guide/topics/connectivity/bluetooth.html

            I’d guess not one software person in a hundred thousand is ever going to need or want to write software for a 3 ton vehicle. What I’m saying is, it makes more sense to me to look at the 99,999 and what they need to be successful in their software careers, rather than worrying about the extremely rare exception.

            What you are talking about is not a significant percentage of the job market. It’s important, but for relatively few people. We should not design curricula for purple squirrels – it’s not helpful and it’s not cost effective.

          30. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: ” it’s still relatively few people working on cars or drones, and the VAST majority of embedded systems do not require that level of math.”

            it’s not just cars and drones.. it’s virtually everything in the world – whether it’s immobile structures and moving objects.

            they all have embedded computer systems – and THAT’s where the jobs are in designing, building and maintaining those systems.

            You encounter these things every day in your life – you take them for granted but there are dozens of embedded computer systems in your home and life and each one of them has a design team… your camera, your security system, your fridge, your oven, your TV, on and on – and on..

            no , you CAN point to ONE and say there are not that many jobs – but when you consider that even folks who live in rural areas are virtually surrounded by embedded computer systems now days – and most trade and repair people, even the UPS and Fed Ex drivers… all depend on embedded computer systems for their business.

            SOMEONE designs these systems…

            The local newspaper now uses a drone to generate birds-eye views of news locations.. someone had to build that drone – program it – and deliver firmware upgrades to it and the photographer – has to add yet another skill-set to his repertoire and that, in turn, gives him/her a leg up on peers that don’t have that skill.

            these are the jobs of the 21st century and virtually all of them beyond waiting tables or serving lattes – requires a higher level of education that we are delivering – because in the US – we largely are delivering the same level of education we have for decades.

            my view – if we have joblessness at the same time companies are saying they cannot get enough qualified applicants – there must be something true to that and what does it harm if we end up being more equal academically with our global peer competition?

            Our BEST students DO match the other countries. That’s true. But down to the next tier and below – we do not… and as TE says – employers do not have enough of the top 10%.

            He thinks it’s not possible for us to increase that 10%. Perhaps you do to.

            I think we not only can – but we must – or we’re going to end up a welfare society…. with students with huge college debt – that at the same time – lack the skills that employers want and those folks will end up in jobs that don’t pay enough to provide self-sufficiency much less pay off their debt – much less promise them opportunity for advancement – the top job at Lattes is making sure you have enough Lattes …. to meet demand.

          31. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Hi Larry –

            This is wearing me out too,but it’s interesting.

            I agree there are on-site test beds for assembled systems. Google does that – both in a lab setting and road test – and so do drone manufacturers. You need special FAA permissions for non-hobby drones, so it’s very much controlled testing. For that, you’re either going to be on-site or teleconferenced in, preferably the former.

            Re commuters in DC, military, law enforcement, and Homeland Security technology generally cannot be done remote. There are exceptions (things that aren’t sensitive or classified) but the rest are not jobs that allow remote work.

            Private industry is different, if it’s not a government contractor working on sensitive or classified things. I know people who live in Western Loudoun and commute in one day a week, working from home the rest of the time – for them, they can’t be further out, because of that one day a week, but they don’t want to live in a city. In the greater DC area, the impulse is less relevant in the big picture than in more remote areas, but it still exists.

            Re agile development, the government method of contracting software work, with hard specs and rigid rules for bids, is less flexible and more expensive than the way most companies do it now. You see one example of the result with healthcare.gov, which should not have been the mess it was. Others are multiple govt systems that cost tens of millions and were never put into place. There’s a reason the industry in general changed how they do this.

            It doesn’t mean don’t document or don’t do it carefully, it does involve doing things in a faster and more fluid way, with changes coming in more easily and quickly.

            Re outsourcing, yes, work that can be outsourced to SW VA can, in theory, be outsourced overseas. The savings with overseas outsourcing are estimated now at about 20% (the old estimates of huge cost savings have not proven out, because you have additional expenses.)

            However – when you factor in being in the same time zone, and being able to drive in to meet with users and management on short notice, you can outsource to SW VA and still do agile, flexible development. If you outsource overseas, it’s harder to do anything other than waterfall – which has proven to be less effective.

            You can get more business value with agile development. It’s not just cost – it’s cost/benefit – and having better technology is a huge business benefit.

            In any case, I wasn’t thinking primarily of outsourcing to SW VA, but rather having companies START in SW VA.

          32. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: “headquartered in DC” – there is a tremendous govt demand for some products… so you have a presence there no matter where you make what they want.

            re: drones, testbeds, commuting, etc.. et al

            Drones are the swiss-army-knives for what is turning out to be thousands of different applications from terrain mapping to tracking bears to finding illegal crops to first-responder for accidents, to finding where the schools of fish are – etc, etc, etc…

            there is huge job potential for those that understand drone technology – AND know the particular field, product, application that benefits from the use of specially configured drones…for that purpose.

            how many of the folks you know are “drone software -ready”?

            serious question.

            do you think, for instance, a cop chasing a bad guy could, instead of engaging in a high-speed chase – launch a drone to follow and transmit coordinates to a group of police cars – automatically downloaded into their GPS that are now providing route directions, time, distance to the bad guy?

            how about a security alarm goes off and instead of sending police – a drone is dispatched that loiters until it can get facial pictures and license plates, etc?

            you can write the software anywhere – yes – but where can you actually run the drone through it’s paces and who will be there to do it, capture data, etc?

            what I posit – to you – is that drones are just one technology that holds great promise for well-paying jobs – provided you have the academic horsepower to do the tasks and – maintain and upgrade the system once deployed for customers?

            want to follow illegals across the border – even at night with a drone that locks on to heat signatures – and transmits their GPS locations to authorities?

            etc, etc, etc

            don’t worry about the FAA – they’re going to be forced to recognize the reality and adapt their rules and regulations accordingly (but there WILL be rules!).

            but my main point is that the world is moving forward as a blindingly fast technological pace – but the jobs require much more than a basic education that is light on math (more precisely the KIND of thinking that math involves as math is the conceptual/virtual language of objects – fixed and mobile. You put those words and sentences and paragraphs into English or other languages but they describe mathematical concepts.. like how fast, how big a payload, what altitude.. can it land and loiter to save fuel then launch again when needed. can it refuel itself or find a refuel station, etc, etc

            ALL of these things – are jobs… for those who have a robust knowledge of language and math/science/technological concepts…

            My question is – for the kids in k-5 right now – what kind of education track should they be on to go after these jobs?

            How good do they have to be in k-5 core academics to follow that path?

            do we actually have a Community College or 4-year degree in “Applied Droneology”? Do we have software for drones Computer Science courses?

            Do you think there is a standard off-the-shelf drone software module?

            do you think when someone says: ” let’s build a drone to apply chemicals to a farm field” that you need to write a requirements doc and a design doc or do you think you start writing software and figure these things out as you go along? When you leave and someone else has to upgrade the software t V2, what documentation do they have as a starting point or do they just start reading through the code?

            what say you?

          33. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            I looked up a bunch of information on embedded systems. It was interesting to see the breakdown of projected jobs. Per Cisco’s writeup on IOT, which looks at the industry and their part in it, they expect about 600K in new manufacturing jobs, and about 300K in big data jobs. The latter are very math-y jobs.

            The writeup also implied a goodly chunk in the networking and infrastructure field, which of course is what Cisco cares about. Actual programming of the systems wasn’t mentioned as a major source of jobs.

            I did verify that the goal of Google’s self-driving car project is to license the technology to car manufacturers. So essentially, they’re developing the SDK for car manufacturers to use.

            I also found that a lot of jobs that are being counted as working with the Internet of Things aren’t working with devices so much as with the data that they generate – if you count it that way, I work with IOT devices, and have for a while. A lot of those jobs are big data jobs, and those definitely do involve math. UVA is moving on Big Data as a major project, which is good.

            I pulled some information on open source IOT kits (Arduino) and took a quick glance at various open source projects for them – including one for drones and one for car sensors – and even with low cost end user kits, you can do an awful lot with not much math – the actual programming for a lot of it (things driven by sensor) is pretty straightforward and at the level that a kid can do it, if they’ve had an intro programming class. It’s pretty cool.

            Why I think jobs using higher level math for very advanced devices like self driving cars and drones will not be a huge percentage of the workforce – the thing is, if you’re working for a company, the programming for one drone is actually the same if you sell one or if you sell fifty million of them. More connected things isn’t linear with more IOT jobs.

            The math for programming simpler things like sensors doesn’t look all that difficult, although I have to say it is incredibly cool and made me want to go out and buy an Arduino to play with.

            Why wouldn’t number of jobs scale with number of devices? Among other reasons, if you’re doing it as a business, you have to make a profit – you’re not setting up a company primarily to provide tech jobs. You want to scale things – re-use code, standardize, and license from those who have already developed code to make them work. You write code for your device, to drive a Prius, you sell one self driving Prius or a million of them, all of them run the same code.

            Re PISA – our rankings in global student comparisons don’t appear to be the primary factor in outsourcing. The country that we outsource the most IT work to, and that we bring the large majority of H1B’s from, India, is well below us in those rankings, not above, in the years it’s participated. That suggests to me that global student rankings isn’t the key metric to use in figuring out what is driving outsourcing.

            IMHO we have unfilled positions in no small part because of the purple squirrel problem – people want candidates with five years of experience on a five year old technology, a PhD in data science when programs are just starting, and they want them to start at 45K per year.

            Smart people with options don’t want to work sixty hours a week at a badly paying job when they can work for themselves and make more money, or work in a less technical field and make more money with fewer hours and better benefits.

            When you can’t buy a five bedroom house in Great Falls for 200K, if you really want to live there, you increase your price range. The market works the same way for talent as it does for real estate.

            One complaint I saw was that in SV, techies were choosing to start their own companies rather than working for other startups. There was a venture capitalist bemoaning this as a big cause of the developer shortage – the developers are there, but they can’t hire them.

            Okay, reality check – good salary versus chance to get rich with your own company – which do you think a really confident, really smart person is going to do? If you want a superstar, offer some equity or a salary high enough to justify the opportunity cost.

            When a society has people looking for jobs and you still can’t get qualified applicants for some jobs, you need to look and see if the specific job is actually a good deal for the potential worker. If the offered salary is too low, offer more money. The companies I know that do this can, in fact, fill their jobs.

          34. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            RE employers going to where the good workers are – employers don’t go to every place where there are ready-to-work workforces. There’s a huge element of “fad” involved, and there are plenty of potentially good places not being used.

            Businesses see what they expect to see. I don’t expect established businesses to suddenly “see” the strong areas in SWVA – I think it’s more likely that new businesses will start in SWVA and established businesses will come late to the party.

            Again, look at Rosetta Stone – they didn’t lure it to Harrisonburg – it started in Harrisonburg – and it’s a fairly sizeable business.

            Re high schools, Virginia had 66 in the 2000 top high schools in the US, as gathered by Newsweek, and two in the top 20. That’s a little above our share by population.

            I don’t actually care about pass rate in AP enrollment. I’d rather see kids taking AP even if they don’t pass the test, and getting exposed to higher level materials, rather than seeing kids getting burned out and hating education because of constant pressure and treating education as a burden.

            We are making education a chore, with drill and too much homework and a very negative approach to learning.

            Kids can learn programming with Scratch and they can learn electronics and basic IOT and use simple – or not so simple – programming skills with Arduino. Which do you think will make them love tech and want to work in it – Scratch and Arduino, or memorization and AP?

            Want to get English SAT scores up? Drill less, and get them to read more, even if that reading is Harry Potter and Twilight and Hunger Games.

            I really worry about taking the joy out of learning. Later in life, you’re not going to have someone force-feeding you knowledge – if we make it a chore, that’s not a good thing in a society where you need to learn throughout your life.

          35. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: ” So essentially, they’re developing the SDK for car manufacturers to use.”

            one SDK for every kind of car and truck regardless of size or design?

            think of it as one SDK for android – and each phone company starting with the basic android for ICS and then forking it…

            who do you think “forks” – who do you think maintains and upgrades after the “fork”.

            I just think you are dead wrong on your perspective … about this.

            you’re limiting your world on purpose – why?

            the world is a big place and technology is transforming the world and there are good jobs for those that have the knowledge and background.

            that’s the half-full glass.

            there are challenges. we ARE going to lose some kinds of jobs. Retraining is said to be how to be more mobile in your job skills – to be able to stay employed even when your job gets automated or outsources or whatever.

            that’s the world you live in. You have to adapt – or start thinking in terms of the glass half-empty.

            embedded systems are ubiquitous in the modern world yet not even many professional programmers recognize that reality – even though they may well be actually writing software that will end up in an embedded system!

            there are JOBS associated with these systems. Are they a zillion more than the supply of labor or do they all pay 6 figure salaries while you work from home? NO.

            The world that was the oyster of your Dad’s world – is not this world for a lot of us – but the jobs are there and they pay enough to live a decent life and it’s way the heck better than saying you don’t need education and will be forced to live on entitlements.

            that’s my story – and I’m sticking to it!

          36. virginiagal2 Avatar
            virginiagal2

            Hi Larry –

            I think there will be very few – a handful at most – base sets of software used for every car or truck, regardless of design.

            I think two elements will be used to modify for specific models and types – first, the ability to pass parameters to functions, and second, the ability to extend the software.

            So, you might pass weight, turn ratio, center of gravity, stability measurements, various handling characteristics to the base functions – a hundred, a thousand, ten thousand characteristics and measurements of handling and design – as parameters to the core program.

            Second, car manufacturers would customize, add device drivers, and extend the base.

            This is analagous to how Android works – actually, most phone companies do not technically fork Android – they stay within the compatibility standards – I’m pretty sure that’s actually required if you want to call it Android. It’s delivered with core functionality for one phone, and each manufacturer does their own device drivers and extensions and may even replace some functionality with their own twists, and delivers a mix of core code and new unique code. I would expect much the same thing for cars.

            There are about 200 models of cars on the road in the US. Google’s autonomous car team per CACM has 12 people. Assume worst case and each model gets its own team as big as Google’s, 12 x 200 = 2400. That’s not a lot of people in a big economy. Not trivial, but not going to greatly influence the mix of jobs.

            I’m not limiting my world – I’m trying to measure reality, and to do that evaluate what I believe will drive a significant number of jobs and what won’t. Not the importance of the jobs – the number. If the jobs are in big data, it doesn’t make sense to focus on drone control.

            Big data – yes, potentially a lot, probably not as many as some are blue skying. Custom applications using IOT and sensors -programmers, engineers – yes, how many depends on how much is a commodity and how much is customized . The idea of providing a platform is the basis for the IOT company Jim was talking about.

            Very complex programming for base control of very complex devices and device drivers, would be very important work, but IMHO probably not that many doing it. People using outputs from that work as inputs for other things, a lot more, and also very important.

            Good example of IOT today is in things like systems administration and virtualization and cloud computing – you have way more servers, with way more data being gathered. But the result of that use of IOT is that each sysadmin can do more work, not less.

            Instead of the sysadmin calculating ratios and writing monitoring shell scripts and utilities, the monitoring systems now send summarized data, do a lot of the work and calculation that was previously done by hand coding, can send alerts at thresholds the sysadmin determines, and makes recommendations.

            The sysadmin work then work is more conceptually complex, because they’re juggling systems and the OSes and virtualization and in some cases the cloud – but it does not typically involve directly programming sensors. The vendor provides the interfaces and tools to make their work easier, and that means they can do more work and more complex work more easily.

            They way that happens is by adding a layer of abstraction – like the difference between coding in assembler and coding in Java. A Java programmer uses registers without having to think about them.

            Someone using IOT will send inputs and outputs to sensors, without having to write custom device drivers.

            A lot of IOT things are going to be getting inputs from and providing outputs to programmers – not so much control coding. For many of these uses, IMHO the actual IOT sensor will be pretty much a black box – you’ll see the interface and the output, and not worry about what’s going on under the hood.

            FWIW, JMHO, etc.

          37. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            virginiagal – do you know what “forking” is?

            do you understand that in a mixed IT environment (for sysadmin) that each flavor of OS has different sets of patches and different kinds of security and each application on each of those different OS – also has application specific patches and security updates?

            do you think a network “logger” is configured differently than the other boxes on the network?

            If you have licensed software installed on one server – does it have a check-out capability for both licenses and content?

            Do you know what database concurrency is and how to assure that updates do not wipe each other out or end up not propagated to other connected databases?

            have you seen an entire site go “down” after a routine patch update was installed ?

            do you know how to properly configure and connect a file backup server – to the network? Do you backup with tapes or hard drives? Does the backup server have multiple drives so you “stripe” data across them and if one drive goes belly up – the system can still get the data while you do a “hot” swap?

            would you be able to know – which system files on your system changed in the last 24 hours…

            are your desktop machines configured to be protected against malware USBs?

            You basically are proving the point here. SysAdmins do a lot more these days because of automation, – but they have to KNOW a lot more also. Most systems nowdays have hundreds of different software/hardware parts that are connected in complex ways.

          38. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            re: standard interfaces

            yes – but you’ll not find the software in a Ford being the same software in a GM just as you’d not find the auto wiring harnesses to be duplicates.

            wiring harnesses are unique to the brand – and often to the model although they can use one superset harness with all possible nodes and only connect to the ones needed for a specific model – for instance one car might have climate control and the other not – but they both use the wires for the heater and fan..

            but a wiring harness for a cargo van may not be anything like one for a Ford Focus even though it’s the same manufacturer.

            computers follow this same convention.

            Finally – you also have to keep in mind that as each new year comes – changes are made – so, in effect, you have (and do) have a book – a thousand pages long with hundreds of schematics… for different year,model, configuration , etc.

            It’s an enormous configuration management and logistics management problem – made easier with automation but that 1000 page book in totally different at a Ford dealer than a Chevy dealer.

          39. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            How new jobs get created – as the result of a cop who kills an unarmed person.

            when asked on TV, a police technology expert answered that the reason cops don’t all have dash cams and cameras on their person – is not so much money as it is a shortage of the right kinds of technology variants that they need, as well as – the avalanche of data that would have to be managed – saved, made accessible from a database, and that database on a server than can be called up by a variety of police and other entities …

            these are jobs Virginiagal – they require – once again – a high level of education and skill to deploy a complete system that does essentially one thing – the ability to pull up the recording of a particular cop on a particular day – at a specific geographic location.

            we have the same thing going on in schools now. Cameras everywhere – continuously recording and sending that data to a central server to be stored on a database that is searchable in real time from any permitted location – and all that stored data is backed up to backup servers so it’s never lost.

            again – these are jobs…

            someone makes these cameras and melds them into what is essentially a sophisticated, embedded computer system.

          40. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            virginiagal2 – this article echos some of my thoughts:

            Why the Robots Might Not Take Our Jobs After All: They Lack Common Sense

            http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/upshot/why-the-robots-might-not-take-our-jobs-after-all-they-lack-common-sense.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

            you may have to diddle with it to get past the paywall to read it.

            I can copy/paste if you cannot.

    3. Tysons Engineer Avatar
      Tysons Engineer

      ^
      What he said. Beautiful.

  8. JNL Avatar
    JNL

    Larry, while not directly answering your questions “source of per-capita patent claim” go to the USPTO web site, which lists the number of patents issued by the USPTO by region (state level) and by company. The USPTO has information current as of 2013, versus your source which is dated 1990. Note that the Federal government has only some 60,000 patents total. As I read the table (http://www.uspto.gov/web/offices/ac/ido/oeip/taf/h_at.htm#PartA1_1b) that is only 1.1% of all patents issued. While large individually (behind only IBM) the total number owned by the US Government is quite small overall.
    If we use patents as a proxy for the strength of a state’s R&D sector, Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia are very low on the list of patents granted, sorted by state of origin. Further, the California University system, the Texas university system, and MIT all show up on the list of entities with at least 1000 patents, but not the Virginia University system.
    But, I am not sure of the linkage between R&D and entrepreneurship, since you can do a great deal of job creation (of “good” jobs) in the service sector without having a single patent, so much of the discussion on this thread may not be germane to the overall point JAB is trying to make in his posting: We need a hospitable environment for entrepreneurs to have a strong economy.
    My two cents for what it is worth.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      Thanks JNL. The DC region is literally surrounded by Armed Force Laboratories. The link I provided said the US had about 1/2 the total number of patents (but does benefit from them financially – imagine, for instance, they licensed GPS technology).

      My thinking is/was that the DC area has a lot of laboratories .. govt employees.. highly qualified hard science STEM grads.. and those labs take great pride in how many patents they get – and own – not the Fed employees.

      Here’s an example:

      http://www.nrl.navy.mil/media/news-releases/2012/NRL-SSC-Scientists-Receive-Awards-for-Inventions-and-Patents

      so my question is – are they really counting all the DC area patents from govt employees?

    2. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      looking at the data from the link JNL provided – it truly does show the US govt with barely a 1000 patents in 2013 while US corporations had over 100,000 but the shocking thing is that foreign corporations had more patents than US corporations.

      Still- it’s hard to deny the US govt role in important evolving technologies ranging from computers, to the internet, to autonomous vehicles, GPS, weather satellites, on and on… that have clearly enabled our military to be the most advanced technological entity on the globe.

      when you think that an aircraft carrier with 6000 people and a couple hundred planes on it – can go faster than 35 mph – and literally outrun it’s escorts… to project force anywhere on the surface of the earth – you come away with two undeniable truths – we develop the technology – and two – we spend a hell of a lot of money to do that – The George Bush (based in Norfolk) cost over 6 billion dollars… Think about how many jobs that is – both civilian and military.

  9. jwgilley Avatar
    jwgilley

    No not a duplication of the NC Research Triangle but a competing research triangle beginning in Charlottesville and including Richmond, Williamsburg and Blacksburg. I suspect that if Virginia had put the hundreds of millions in a CIT centered in C’Ville rather than spend it on the CIT all of our universities would be far more productive in securing competitive government and industry research grants.
    And just for the record Virginia does not have a Duke University getting hundreds of millions a year on competitive research contracts. And remember Duke was Trinity College before becoming Duke University. Trinity was half of Randolph Macon College which closed during the Civil War and after the war the Virginia Methodists took their part of RMC to Ashland while the NC Methodists took theirs to Durham. If the VA Methodists had taken their half of RMC to Richmond or Norfolk who knows where we would be today?
    University research along with technical training at all levels and attracting scientists and engineers is absolutely critical to future economic development and Virginia will be hit hardest as the federal spending other than SS and Medicare continues to slip. And once interest rates jump which they will our national debt will explode again.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      here’s my question – is a state-led function to incubate start-ups the same thing as putting together a network of research universities?

      I see them as related but different.

    2. DonR Avatar
      DonR

      ” … a competing research triangle beginning in Charlottesville and including Richmond, Williamsburg and Blacksburg.”

      That’s too large an area.

      Charlottesville to Richmond: 72 miles.
      Charlottesville to Blacksburg: 145 miles
      Charlottesville to Williamsburg: 121 miles

      Eliminate Charlottesville and it’s still too big.

      Richmond to Williamsburg: 53 miles
      Richmond to Blacksburg: 218 miles

  10. billsblots Avatar
    billsblots

    I have stated a couple of times previously my observation as “an outsider”, if you can say that after residing in the Commonwealth for 20 years, that I have found it laughable, if not actually harmful, that every Virginia governor has looked for people to chest-bump and high-five to gloat that the successful and superior Virginia economy is due to his and the state’s “pro-business” environment and his diligence in promoting Virginia. In fact the economy in Virginia has always been highly dependent upon the federal teat. This is robustly found not just in DC but of course, essential to Tidewater and also central Virginia where one of the beneficiaries of BRAC, Fort Lee, has expanded extensively the last ten years incorporating training schools and specialties from now-closed or stripped-down bases. The busy construction of new buildings and expansion continues there, creating a housing construction boom in Prince George County.
    larry’s argument that yes indeed, government does create jobs, takes an obstructed view of the situation, probably by design. All of those new homes in Loudoun County and beyond fueled by federal workers with an average compensation of package of $200,000, and consultants collecting federal contract dollars at the rate of $150-$250 per hour have certainly spurred the Virginia economy, but at the same time every dollar spent has first been stolen out of the pockets of working Americans in Allentown, Auburn Hills, Columbus and from every community in America, depriving the local economies of the use of those dollars. The federal government spending looks like a job engine to northern Virginia and Maryland, but is accurately understood to be a greedy feudal landlord stealing from the unworthy peasants across the country who have some nerve questioning the genius of the runaway and arrogant federal government.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      I think when we have 1.5T coming in as discretionary revenues and we are spending a trillion + for “national defense” – which happens to be more than all our NATO allies, Russia, China, North Korea and Iran combined – and NoVa and Hampton being one of the prime beneficiaries of those jobs – that you have to answer both questions. Do you think we need to cut defense and are you okay with Virginia losing jobs as a result?

      On your point about jobs “created” – I would ask you this – is 50 dollars spent on the private economy different than 50 dollars spent on some tax-provided service ? Both of them will create the ripple jobs.. we know that from Va experience; it’s more than the loss of the net defense jobs – it’s the secondary jobs also.

      So what say you ?

      For the record – I have said over and over that we have to cut defense and we have to charge more (cut) Medicare – there is scant justification for selling guaranteed health insurance to people making 85K in income – for 100.00 a month.

      but Medicare spends in total – right now less than 400-500 billion and it can be “fixed” basically by means-testing and by stopping the massive subsidies for Medicare Advantage. That should help taxpayers I agree, but will it help NoVa/Hampton/Va particularly?

      and if you think about this – if you charge more for Medicare – people will spend less on other things like cars, houses, etc.. right? Will cutting Medicare “hurt” the non-health care economy?

      1. TooManyTaxes Avatar
        TooManyTaxes

        Larry,

        Question & comment.

        Where does the $85,000 break point come from? And is it the same nationwide? There are huge differences in cost of living.

        If you begin to means-test entitlements, you have created welfare. And, as we all know ;-), welfare goes to deadbeats. People who didn’t work hard; didn’t save for their retirement; did drugs and booze; didn’t get married, but had 8 kids. Welfare, unless universal, is strongly frowned on in the United States. Toss in Obama’s efforts (real or simply perceived) to open the borders, provide amnesty to lawbreakers (real or simply perceived) and open welfare state benefits to them and the family members who can then come to the U.S. and receive more benefits. I think you create a huge political problem. I’m not arguing all of this is logical or that no case for means testing can be made. But I think you are ignoring the politics.

        1. larryg Avatar
          larryg

          re: ” Where does the $85,000 break point come from? And is it the same nationwide? There are huge differences in cost of living.”

          there may be but that’s up to the person getting the benefits not the responsibility of Medicare.

          Google ” what does Medicare cost” and you ‘ll get stuff like this:

          http://www.mymedicare.com/medicare-cost/

          “If you begin to means-test entitlements, you have created welfare. ”

          you’re behind – both SS and Medicare are ALREADY means-tested.

          “And, as we all know ;-), welfare goes to deadbeats.”

          what exactly ENTITLES you to Medicare Part B when you retire? This is a test to see if you really know … my experience so far is that most people don’t. Do you?

          “But I think you are ignoring the politics.”

          I’m saying the politics is ignorant of the reality.

          what entitles anyone to tax-free health insurance? why are you entitled to that – any more or less than someone is entitled to welfare?

          what’s the justification for you not having to pay taxes on your health insurance?

          how about your mortgage interest or your charitable deductions or your 401(K)?

          what entitles you to those deductions?

          what “entitles” someone with an annual income of 85K to guaranteed health insurance for 100.00 a month instead of them having to go out onto the open market and buying their own insurance at similar rates to others?

          I’m not ignoring politics – I’m challenges the hypocrisy of people attitudes about THEIR own “entitlements” while oppose others…

          why justifies YOUR entitlements over others?

    2. DonR Avatar
      DonR

      Not quite. Federal spending as a percent of GDP has remained fairly flat sine 1950 – about 20% of GDP. State government spending as a percent of GDP has doubled since 1950 – from about 5% to about 10%. Local spending as a percent of GDP has grown from about 4% to about 6% of GDP since 1950.

      If you are looking for a runaway and arrogant government I’d suggest you look south toward Richmond. Or east toward Annapolis.

      State governments, darlings of conservatives, have been by far the fastest growing spendthrifts among the three tiers of government since 1950.

  11. jwgilley Avatar
    jwgilley

    States do make policy and spend money to enhance their economic attractiveness including right to work laws, bribing companies to locate in their state via tax rebates etc., and hundreds of other policies and expenditures. If research is to be important in the future why hang on to 19th Century right to work laws or spend millions on business relocation and not on something that will drive economic growth?
    Well, should the state be responsible for training engineers and scientists? Maybe it would be better to leave that to corporations via apprenticeships etc. Is the purpose of colleges and universities to encourage the young to improve their intellectual curiosity or for government jobs as teachers, police, mental health workers, legislators, clerks, city managers etc. or should a state invest in research and researchers that produces 21st Century jobs over the long term?

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      re: ” Well, should the state be responsible for training engineers and scientists? ”

      where is the demarcation between K-12 / higher Ed and corporate apprenticeships?

      Europe has a two-track system – those headed to college and those headed to technical jobs but the academics are just as robust on both tracks.

      High Schools now offer – Governors School, Advanced Placement, Dual Enrollment and International Baccalaureate as well as Career Tech for things like x-ray techs, or a wide variety of occupational certificate programs – but at the same time seem to not have money for Head Start or Pre-K or Title 1 types programs – that rely primarily on the Feds , not state or local.

      The state is by law and constitution directly responsible for providing equal and equitable access to education and also – to provide welfare or prisons to those who failed to get an adequate education so it seems to be counter-productive to not insure that every kid gets a basic academically-rigorous – globally competitive – education or otherwise the whole state goes down the toilet financially no matter what we do about economic development.

      I will say – that if we cannot get agreement politically on what the State’s role ought to be with education – that there’s even less hope for agreement on economic development.

      1. jwgilley Avatar
        jwgilley

        Well change in the global economy is coming and a state has to decide what role it will play in being a part of the new emerging economy. Is education important to economic development or not? Is research resulting in more talented people working and living in a state important or not? Institutions have to change. Just look at the change M. Daniels, the new president of Purdue, is proposing: slimmer administrations, 3 year degrees (like most other developed countries) and focused research. His approach sounds good to me. But I do know that many people like to look back and change frightens many. Time will tell which states do the best in the new economy. But Virginia, the most dependent on federal spending, might want to look to different alternatives. Or not?

        1. larryg Avatar
          larryg

          jwgilley – what are our global competitors doing about education?

          Our kids rank 25th in fundamental academics and real world problem solving – i.e. critical thinking.

  12. DonR Avatar
    DonR

    The real problem in Virginia is that the best universities are in the wrong places. UVA, W&M and VT are all in cities far too small and far apart to catalyze business innovation from academia.

    Universities can evolve and evolve quickly as the University of Maryland has proven.

    It’s a lot easier to improve a university than to build a metropolitan area.

    The money should be going to George Mason, VCU and ODU. Each of them is already located in a metropolitan area sufficiently large to make a dent in Virginia’s economy.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      Most all of the Universities in Va have satellite sites and distance learning.
      You’ll find both VPI and UVA at places like Fort Belvoir and Quantico…

      There is no real obstacle any more to any University having a physical presence where there is a demand for the knowledge needed. One may ask, legitimately why UVA and VPI offer some of the same subjects and BOTH of them have satellite locations offering the SAME subject.

    2. TooManyTaxes Avatar
      TooManyTaxes

      Agreed. But this is not the Virginia Way.

    3. virginiagal2 Avatar
      virginiagal2

      Oh, for heavens sake. UVA and Tech are both catalyzing business innovation, which often gets headquartered in the DC area for business reasons. They have created tons of jobs and are doing significant research that helps Virginia companies.

      The money should be going to the best schools. Not to some theory of what metro size is optimal – to the school that can create the opportunity. I can drive an hour or two easily. You can’t recreate a great school easily.

      Look at Rosetta Stone – founded in Harrisonburg, now headquartered in DC. You see that pattern over and over again – catalyzed around Virginia universities, moves to large metro area AFTER FOUNDING.

      VCU is closer to me, but I’m more interested in what UVA is doing.

      1. virginiagal2 Avatar
        virginiagal2

        Except I was wrong – Rosetta Stone is still headquartered in Harrisonburg – it’s the corporate office in DC.

  13. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    this is an example of the type of critical thinking that employers look for in employees they want to keep:

    http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/curriculum/2014/08/a_closer_look_at_a_math_perfor.html

    The perimeter of a square park is 42 miles with 8 miles on each side. A park ranger says there are about 9 deer per square mile.

    How many deer are estimated to be in the park?

    this problem when presented to students had a horrendous failure rate…

    the problem requires the student to devise a multi-step approach to get the solution. It takes more than a multi-choice or just do the straight math.

    this is the KIND of thinking process that is needed in the 21st century where solutions are not immediately discerned but require the ability to synthesize in multiple steps – using math but also being able to read for information needed to understand the problem.

    this is the area where the US – excuse the vernacular – sucks.

    we’ve become a sound-bite, talking point culture – not only in politics but in the basic skills that many 21st century jobs require .

    And Americans – and their kids avoid these kinds of subjects and disciplines like the plaque for fear that they’ll get dinged on the QCAs and ruin their chances to get into their favorite college.

    What America and Virginia needs is educated and skilled workers who can innovate, develop new technology solutions, get patents.. become entrepreneurs.. or successfully develop and sustain a 21st century business -to compete successfully for global jobs.

    we keep trying to get there – on the cheap… and I don’t mean money – I mean effort – You cannot be in that group that engages in disruptive technologies if you avoid the tougher academics, take the easy subjects and look for the easy jobs.

    The GOP characterizes it as Takers vs Makers. That’s a bit harsh and many think it applies only to welfare recipients but the truth is – it applies to too many of our young these days – and what happens is – they end up in Starbucks with 30k in education debt.. and no real viable – in demand – 21st century skills..

    We have, unfortunately, in Virginia multi-generational families who have made a career working for the govt – in NoVa and in Hampton and in and around the various military bases… (we are not alone).

    And it’s no secret when DOD makes cuts and talks of BRAC, it strikes fear into the hearts of those – who basically have relied on govt jobs.. (and I include all those contractor and sub-contractor jobs).

    In fact – the Feds have been expecting this for a while and typically hire contractors to do work that they know the funding for is not permanent. Some folks have worked their entire career for contractors and some even think they are not working for the govt – until of course – the contract is not renewed – which is now playing out across NoVa and Hampton and military bases…

    but at the end of the day – I still also ask this question – If a taxpayer is buying $50 dollars worth of DOD foxhole and DOD stops building that foxhole – the $50 goes for something else – but whether it’s spent on a foxhole or lottery tickets or porn or a big screen TV – it still works the same way. what it really boils down to – is – how many foxholes do we need to buy because if you buy none – then you won’t have that private sector job either.. (I use foxhole to represent National Defense and assume that everyone believes we need “some” (just like prisons or police).

  14. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    Two of the biggest expanding areas of tech these days are medicine and education.

    Both are expensive and inefficient and ripe for technology solutions.

    Some folks may not believe it but we ARE going to have centralized electronic medical records – and it’s going to be a boon for anyone whether they are seeing more than one doctor or they get sick on vacation a thousands miles from their home.

    Education is also undergoing a revolution as everything from lesson plans to curriculum to quizes and homework are getting standardized and computerized.

    A child is going to have a tablet (or maybe a phone) and go home in the evenings with their customized-to-them, homework on that tablet – that was downloaded from the Schools wi-fi system earlier in the day.

    the next morning he is going to show up – and his tablet is going to automatically connect to the Wi-FI – and transfer the results of his work including the areas he had trouble – to the network and thence to his teacher who will see the homework – automatically graded and new homework that also adds new exercises for where the kid is having problems.

    this is going to happen. If it does not happen in the public schools – it will be done by the private sector and will become the way that non-public schools, including home schooling may deliver more value for less money that will result in far better educated – workforce than now.

    this is going to happen and there are going to be good jobs for those that have the academic and motivational horsepower and it will create new and powerful companies that will emerge with these innovations.

    We – limit ourselves often by our thinking. We are more comfortable with things that we can get used to – that don’t change. Change is antithetical to many of us and that includes most of all – what we prefer in what we do – to make a living but that’s not the world we live in these days.

    all of this – goes back to just how solid your core academic knowledge is – or not.

    Note this – 37% of Fairfax County kids take at least 1 AP course and a whopping 79% pass the AP exams – a huge achievement compared not only to other schools in Va but even more amazing when you consider that there are about 170,000 students in the system.

    Even with all of this – exemplary achievement – just 18% take advanced math -which is fairly typical for many school systems in Va.

    there is hardly a technology any more where math is not important – even vital – especially in anything involving moving parts and sensors or just understanding what size micro-processor you need for a given set of software to run concurrently and not kill the machine.

    Yes – even our top high school students – even those who are taking AP and college-bound – avoid math like the plague.

    that automatically reduces the jobs you’re ultimately going to be able to compete for but parents and kids both are afraid that higher math will ding their high school grades and dim their chances to get into their favorite college.

    when we talk about toughening up the core academic standards – all hell breaks loose – and people insist that we are fine without the more robust requirements.

    You cannot build a drone (or even parts of it) that is going to – map terrain or follow a pipeline route or spread chemicals on a farm field – if you don’t have a solid math background – period. No amount of sociology or geography or political “science” or even Economics is going to resolve that gap. 18% of Fairfax kids take that math and when you compare that to what European kids take – it puts us in 25th.

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