There is a growing sentiment among think tanks and in the blogosphere that the higher ed industry is experiencing a financial “bubble” that cannot long be sustained. I have used this blog for years to document that college tuition and fees long ago detached from the Consumer Price Index and now constitute the most chronically inflationary sector of the economy, exceeding even health care. It’s good to see that others have begun to systematically explore that phenomenon.

The underlying cause of higher-ed inflation is the widespread conviction that “everybody” ought to be able to go to college if they want to. As a consequence, 70% of high school graduates are attending at least some college, more than at any time in history. Unprecedented federal funding has enabled students to pay the tuition and fees, but recent research suggests that higher ed is not becoming any more affordable — colleges and universities are “capturing” the federal largess to underwrite non-instructional expenses. (See “Why Colleges Grow Fat while Students Starve“)

Now a commentary by the John William Pope Center for Higher Education Policy joins the chorus arguing that the bubble cannot long continue. Writes Jenna Ashley Robinson:

Federal Pell grants, direct loans, and state need-based and merit scholarships, zealous parents, and helpful guidance counselors encourage more students to attend universities than ever before. President Obama wants more students in college as well, saying, “By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.”

But this growth is unsustainable. And if it is predicated on the assumption of value that isn’t really there, the conditions are ripe for the bubble to burst.

Robinson publishes the following graph:

There is growing evidence that the value is not there. Many students do not belong in college. Many are learning little, dropping out and racking up debt for an education that will do little for them. (See “Want to Cut Costs? Start by Slashing Subsidies for Sorry-Ass College Students“).

It’s one thing to say that “anybody ought to be able to go to college,” if that statement means that college should be open to Americans of all racial, religious, ethnic and class persuasions, or even if that it means lack of income should not be a barrier to attending college. But that is very different from saying that everyone should go to college, because it is manifestly evident that tens of thousands of students are acquiring few of the cognitive skills they need to prosper in the knowledge economy. Instead, they are saddling themselves in debt and spending time out of the workforce where they could have been learning a useful craft or trade.

The fact is, not everybody has the ability or inclination to succeed in college. Sooner or later, the reality of that fundamental fact will sink in. Stories will spread of college drop-outs saddled with thousands of dollars in debt they cannot repay. At some point, people will understand that college is an investment that offers a higher rate of return to some people than to others. It makes economic sense for the cognitively gifted to attend. It makes little economic sense for others.

This is a hard truth, but it must be said: The federal government is doing people no favor by encouraging people to attend college if they only wind up dropping out. Further, state government need not build a higher education system capable of accommodating every high school grad who would like a college degree. As I repeat endlessly on this blog, government needs to begin making hard choices. Abandoning the notion that “everyone” should go to college would be a good start.