I love riding trains. I envy the French and the Japanese for their high-speed marvels. If the United States had a system of high-speed trains that could whisk me to different cities, I would take them over cars and airplanes any day. But I don’t think we’ll ever see such trains for a very simple reason: They’re just too darned expensive.
A recent report to the General Assembly provides rough cost figures for the TransDominion Express, a proposed train that would run from Bristol through Richmond to Washington, D.C. The Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation periodically updates the General Assembly on the estimated cost of such a project.
According to the latest update:
- Up-front capital costs (in 2010 dollars) would be roughly $206 million.
- Annual operating costs for full service would run $19 million (in 2010 dollars).
- The train would attract between 14,000 to 58,000 riders annually.
- Revenue is projected to be between $0.4 million and $1.8 million annually in 2010 dollars. A subsidy of between $17.2 and $18.6 million would be required.
Do the math: The subsidy for just operating the train would amount to roughly $600 per rider. And that doesn’t include the roughly $7,000-per-rider capital cost of the project. I don’t think so.
Hopefully, the TransDominion Express is not typical. The economics of a high-speed train serving the densely populated northeast corridor (Richmond to Boston) might look a lot better. Further, as air travel becomes increasingly chaotic and unpredictable, more people may opt for trains. But the costs and institutional barriers remain formidable.