Michael Shear with the Washington Post tells the story of the behind-the-scenes maneuvering of Republican leaders in the General Assembly to overcome their differences and cobble together a compromise transportation “solution.” What comes through very clearly: Fear of retribution at the polls drove the compromise. Writes Shear:
Shocked by George Allen’s loss in last year’s U.S. Senate race and fearful of losing their majority in the elections this fall, the top lieutenants in the House of Delegates and Senate put aside years of philosophical differences and personal hostilities during closed-door meetings arranged and hosted by Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell (R).
The resulting legislative package, as outlined in this blog, was a bastardized hybrid of incompatible philosophies. The only good thing I can think to say about the financing piece of the compromise is that it avoids a statewide general tax increase. But if the regional components in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are enacted, the deal would pump about $1.1 billion a year, plus $2 billion in bond proceeds, into a broken transportation system. Most of that money would be wasted, and the impetus for fundamental reform would be lost.
Legislators can respond that other pieces of the package will “fix” the system and ensure that the money is well spent. The land use reforms are a useful step in the right direction, but they are woefully incomplete. The VDOT reforms also are useful, especially the requirements for performance standards, which would prioritize transportation projects that actually mitigate congestion. But so many aspects of the transportation crisis remain unaddressed, as I’ve enumerated in previous posts, that the “fix” will go only skin deep.
The question now is how Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and his fellow Democrats will respond. There is much in the compromise they don’t like. It won’t take much opposition for the entire contrivance to collapse. But there is political risk: They won’t have much leverage in the 2007 elections if they torpedo the compromise. In a podcast analysis of the compromise on the Bearing Drift blog, J.R. Hoeft and Brian Kirwin suggest that the Dems have no choice but to go along.
I suspect that they’re right. Gov. Kaine is enough of a realist that he will hold his nose and go along, especially if he can get concessions on two things. One is a measure that would empower local governments to reject rezoning requests that would overload local transportation networks. Second is a measure that would create a fund for smart road projects.
But passage of the package is far from inevitable. It is the nature of compromises, that there is something in the package for everyone to dislike. It could unravel quickly if a powerful lobby like the home builders digs in its heels. I’m tempted to say that would be the best thing.