WaPo

has columnists who often see the world as it is: Warren Brown in one. Another is Steven Pearlstein who appears in the Business section. Today – 14 November – Pearlstein tosses a touchdown pass in overtime with “Toward a new International Capitalism.”

For anyone interested in the 20 nation-state “summit” about to launch in the Federal District or the future of Virginia’s economy needs to understand Pearlstein’s perspective.

For EMR the most important thought is buried in the next to last paragraph:

“While product and labor markets work remarkably well when they are left open and lightly-regulated, experience has now demonstrate that a different approach needs to be taken toward financial markets, which suffer from imperfect information, and abundance of moral hazard and a tendency toward herd behavior and speculative excess.”

Wait a minute!

While those comments are on target with respect to “financial” markets what about land markets, built environment markets and infrastructure markets? Taken together these three can be called “the settlement pattern market” because they shape human settlement patterns.

No one with hands on experience in these markets could claim they do not “suffer from imperfect information, and abundance of moral hazard and a tendency toward herd behavior and speculative excess.”

Is the real estate market just a side light? Is it not the mortgage sector of this market that is driving the Global financial meltdown?

What about Autonomobiles? Are they just “products” or are they right behind “Wrong Size House in Wrong Location” as a driver of settlement pattern dysfunction?

What a huge blind spot Pearlstein has exposed! We explore this blind spot that is common among economist in The Shape of the Future.

Pearlstein provides a useful context with which come to understand the importance and topography of the complex market that most directly impacts human settlement patterns.

At the federal, state and municipal levels Agencies have done an terrible job of managing the settlement pattern market. See “The Role of Municipal Planning in the Creation of Dysfunctional Human Settlement Patterns,” 23 January 2002.

Housing and Autonomobiles have been subsidized by Agencies to jump start the economy with every recession since the Great Depression. And every time the settlement pattern has become more dysfunctional as documented by the Mobility and Access Crisis and the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis.

Why not evolve intelligent management of four markets: Labor, Goods and Services, Finance and Settlement Pattern? That will be important at the Global and continental scales but even more important at the Regional scale. The nation-state has a role to play but it is the Region where the rubber needs to meet the road. That has been the focus in the EU.

The folks governance practitioners that Jim Bacon calls Euro Weenies have been reluctant to harp on the dysfunctional settlement patterns in the US of A because the more sustainable patterns and densities of land use give the Euro’s a competitive advantage.

Perhaps in the context that Pearlstein outlines they will speak up over the weekend.

EMR


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25 responses to “BREAKTHROUGH!”

  1. Well.. EMR …your best chance at fundamental transformation is slipping through the fingers.

    They gonna bail out the mortgage companies …the credit card companies…insurance companies and anyone else who shows up with hat in hand to include the auto companies if the Dems get their way.

    Editorial Comment: The “purity” of the Republicans position on the bailout of Wall Street but not Detroit is a good example of why the Republican Brand is stinking to high heaven these days.

    Here we are ..telling the so-called Reagan Democrats that the fat cats on Wall Street get their 700 billion bailout but Detroit can take a walk…

    .. and oh by the way.. no stinkin union secret votes either.

    I’d say.. the Republicans have the political equivalent of a death wish these days…

    just imagine what would be happening if they were playing with real guns…

    😉

    Right now the Republicans absolute best hope…err or is that strategy… is that Obmama and company will mess up something fierce….

    Just about the only guy who would have brought true Fundamental Transformation was…. you guessed it.. Ron Paul… right EMR?

  2. Larry,

    You do realize that Wall Street gives more money to Democrats than Republicans, don’t you? This isn’t the 80s any more.

    Here’s the data since you won’t believe me without proof.

    Same holds true for individual donations.

    “Right now the Republicans absolute best hope…err or is that strategy… is that Obmama and company will mess up something fierce….”

    Honestly, what could Obama’s Treasury pick possibly do worse?

    As for EMR’s post, I guess the thought never crossed his mind that the people who OWN land might not want people who “know better” (i.e. EMR) to tell them where they should live.

  3. Bob – they give money to whoever is in power…or whoever they think – has the power to take actions that will benefit them (or harm them).

    right?

    Most of the folks who provide influence money – hedge their bets by giving equally ..until the outcome is clear and then they focus their money on the perceived winners….

    Here 2004:

    Finance/Insur/RealEst
    George W. Bush $33,844,215
    John Kerry $14,055,247

    http://www.opensecrets.org/pres04/sectorall.php?cycle=2004

    capishe?

  4. Anonymous Avatar

    More on the four markets:

    EMR’s four markets post is a “breakthrough.”

    I recall his discussion of classical economists not understanding the drivers of settlement patterns. It is clear the first two posters have no idea what he is talking about.

    I agree with EMR’s point about finance markets and settlement pattern markets but I would not give the goods and services (product) and labor markets a free pass. The evil doers in the current administration have shown the results of inadequate market guidance in the areas of product safety, food security, pollution control, contracts by government agencies and minority labor relations.

    The Balanced Community and sustainable New Urban Region ideas are powerful but it will require intelligent management at all levels of all four markets spheres too preserve democracies with market economies.

  5. Anonymous Avatar

    Since I doubt that EMR will bother to respond to your snarky dismissal:

    “As for EMR’s post, I guess the thought never crossed his mind that the people who OWN land might not want people who “know better” (i.e. EMR) to tell them where they should live.”

    Let me suggest he does understand owners threshold desires based on pervasive myths.

    He would say that to achieve what those land owners really want — happiness and safety — they need to understand:

    The cumulative impact of their decision, and

    The need to balance indivdual rights with community responsibilities.

    When citizens do that they will join hands to build Balanced Communities.

  6. Larry,

    Your first post implied that Republicans are catering to Wall Street and not Detroit because Republicans and Wall Street are allies some how. That just isn’t true any more. Big Business is an ally of the Democrats because they can use them to eliminate upstart competition through regulation, especially environmental regulation. Soros? T Boone Pickens?

    Detroit, on the other hand, has always been 100% union goon territory and the issue is purely partisan. Ford makes good products in Europe that are not sold here (eg. the Mondeo). Ford is profitable in Europe. Toyota, BMW, etc. can build good cars in the non-union South. I conclude from this that unions are the root of the problem, and that a bail out of Detroit is a bail out of the unions. That’s why the GOP position is that the bailout will only happen on Obama’s watch without GOP votes.

    Anon:
    “It is clear the first two posters have no idea what he is talking about.”

    I can’t speak for Larry, but this sentence is 100% true and accurate. I don’t wish to join the gnostic cult. I have as much interest in learning EMR-speak as I do in learning esperanto or Klingon.

    There are 60,000 words in the English language, and most of them are quite useful.

    I also reject the core tenets of socialism and Marxism that people’s “threshold desires” are wrong and that the unwashed masses need re-education from a self-appointed elite.

  7. Larry:

    The financial markets are different from a single sector manufacturer. Sorry of this offends your sense of fairness. when the textile mills all went offshore it did not ruin America. Neither will seeing the automakers leave ruin America. And I will say that the textile makers had an excuse – their industry was leaving a lot of western countries for cheap wages elsewhere. But Japan is a high cost country and they make the best cars in the world. So, we’re not only bailing out an industry that is not critical to America’s future we are bailing out a provably poor set of companies.

    Normally, the owners of a company (i.e. the shareholders) vote with their wallets by selling the shares of poorly run / poorly performing companies. Sometimes, the Board of Directors actually starts firing executives at these poorly performing companies because of the low stock price. In rare cases a direct shareholder action is brought against the company and the board is replaced. Now we have government ownership. Will the government be good shareholders? Or, will they do nothing? Or, worse yet, will they try to impose their view of the right social order on the companies. No selling cars to Venezuela because Chavez is a bad guy? Special discounts for poor Americans?

    I am very nervous about companies where the US Government has a direct equity stake. In fact, I wouldn’t buy those shares with your money.

  8. I actually agree with Bob and Groveton on Detroit but what I was pointing out is how this plays to the voters that the Republican need in numbers to go with their base if they are going to be a viable party.

    Reagan Democrats… etc… these are the same Union manufacturing folks who were persuaded to vote Republican…

    They don’t understand why bailing out Wall Street while not Detroit ..and then going for with the NAFTA-ization of our economy is – something that benefits them.

    We are also the only industrialized country that does not guarantee access to basic health care – and the unions in our country – the bedrock principle that exit for is to insure that they get guaranteed benefits – pensions and health care including retirement health care.

    So the GM Plant in Detroit has to add 2K per car to pay for the health care but the Toyota Plant Japan and the Ford Plant in Germany – does not.

    The Republicans don’t have to vote to support the unions – but they cannot ignore the issues either.

    They cannot be ..against the unions… and against health care.. and FOR Wall Street …without major electoral consequences…

    They will have to change and adapt to the world realities with respect to working class folks if they are to survive as a governing entity.

    and yes.. it is amusing.. that EMR’s “solutions” require a large and powerful central government in charge of virtually everything economic to insure that Functional Settlement patterns will “work” and notice also that one of the reasons he uses a different vocabulary is because – if he used words that folks clearly understood with respect to what he is advocating… he would lose credibility…

    HEY… don’t ya’ll find it just a tad bit curious that both EMR and the Republicans think that the “message”.. if done right…will win them converts?

  9. “They cannot be ..against the unions… and against health care.. and FOR Wall Street …without major electoral consequences…”

    That may be true, but you cannot be FOR unions and FOR health care without major economic consequences (i.e. Great Depression).

    Being FOR unions and socialized medicine will turn all industries into Detroit — ie, unworkable disasters. Somehow, the non-union workers at WalMart and BMW-USA and Honda-USA and Toyota-USA and Whole Foods get along just fine.

    Larry, you have an overly optimistic view of what the unions do in Detroit. The Wall Street Journal a few years ago ran a fantastic story about how Ford and GM have these gigantic empty rooms where employees are paid full salary to sit and do nothing all day long. They can't be fired. They produce no value. Yet they get paid. GM & Ford try to make life miserable in the rooms — think back to your days of detention after class — in the hopes that the union goons go crazy and quit.

    Before I read that, I was under the impression that only the federal government agencies had unproductive labor on that scale. No free market enterprises can survive with union contracts like that in place — and please note that the government forced the acceptance of the contracts in the first place.

    How about: Detroit gets a bailout on the condition that all of its labor contracts are immediately null and void? I might go for that.

  10. I think the unions, as currently, existing are abominations…also but they did not come about because of union goons but other goons..hired thugs …in the days before we had unions.

    and I say that whether it is for cars or schools…

    but I focus on why they still exist… and why they are not allied with Republicans on virtually any level.

    We take for granted that Republicans are opposed to unions – period

    and Reagan found a way to convince union members that the unions were not in their overall long-term best interests.

    But what happened after that?

    Who was looking after the working man and his ability to find employment, get health care, buy a house and send his kids to college?

    Reagan had them convinced that they could accomplish this without unions…

    but what about right now?

    When you talk to the Republican about AMERICAN Jobs.. you get the two-step shoulder-shrugging shuffle…. followed by an outburst about the evil unions.

    where is the BEEF?

    for all the talk about America and Americans…the Republicans seem to be all about Wall Street

    it might be a “perception” but it is a powerful and potent one that they must deal with…

    you can have all the folks you want cursing the unions but when the only alternative that you offer the working man is trickle down, supply-side.. NAFTA-ized work… what you are doing is EMPOWERING the unions -as bad as you think they are.

  11. Darrell -- Cheapeake Avatar
    Darrell — Cheapeake

    Empowering unions. heh… That’s the problem with this type of topic. Most people still look at jobs and the economy on a local or national scale, instead of the new paradym of globalization. Republicans are this, Democrats are that. Pro union, anti union. It really makes no difference. What both parties ascribe to is what the original author termed ‘Washington concensus’. Free trade, absent regulation, with the attendent CONTROL of prosperity for the average worker.

    Bush is a believer. And so is Obama based upon who he is tapping for his top advisors. In the article, the author seems to be implying that there needs to be more regulation of the market, much like EMR’s rhetoric. But such regulation can not be imposed simply on a national economy, because the processes extend beyond mere borders. That’s what the G20 meeting is all about, to begin talks on a new and improved economic world order.

    For a really long but informative analysis of how we got here, and where we are going, read the following.

    http://michaelsakbani.blogspot.com/2008/11/analysis-of-2008-global-financial.html

    IV. The Rise and Fall of the Model of Global liberal Finance

    “The global trend was therefore to copy the American model and push liberalization and globalization to the limits. Hence, the world witnessed a gathering wave of deregulation and globalization in the second half of the 1980`s, which accelerated in the 1990`s and came to ruling the roost thereafter. “

  12. nice article Darrell… thanks for sharing

    ” …Mr. Greenspan, testifying on October 23, 2008 before a Congressional Committee, admitted his error in believing that investment mangers would exercise prudence in their operations and accepted that the regulatory system was loose and fundamentally obsolete. “

    gawd..the word “idiot” flies from the lips… here… and this is THE financial wizard of the generation?

    …. and we think this logic was …. worldwide … throughout the banking sector?

    after all … if the US believes in this guy.. it ought to be good enough for all mankind – right?

    so anyhow.. we’ve now decided that a politicized government’s role in the economy is a good thing.

    It wasn’t Greenspans advice – it was his idealogical bent.

    He had the “right view” about the market – … at least until he didn’t any more….

    😉

    Alright.. so we throw Detroit under the bus and we go love up on Toyota in a right-to-work non-rust belt state….

    and if they get into trouble – then what?

  13. Groveton' Virginia Avatar
    Groveton’ Virginia

    Then there is no auto business inside the USA.

  14. so… we let GM & FORD walk away from company-provided pension and retirement health benefits and let the American taxpayer take them over?

    My understanding is that it is these "legacy" costs that are killing them…

    I don't really buy the claim that they are selling the "wrong" cars ….

    they build what Americans will buy.

    Even Toyota does that – they produce huge Tundra trucks to compete straight up against the 150 and Silverado… and they produce the Sequoia to compete against the American SUVs and neither of them get gas mileage worth writing home about.

    The conventional wisdom is that GM and Ford … cannot survive by selling fuel-efficient smaller cars with razor-thin profit margins …because there is not enough profit to cover those "legacy" costs.

    And as for the unions, it appears that sunbelt auto makers pay near scale union wages and benefits – without unions.

    And last time I checked, Detroit is comparable in the number of hours it takes to build an auto – i.e. they're competitive from a productivity point of view.

    I suspect that if the American auto makers were allowed to go bankrupt – this is what would happen.

    1. – The American Taxpayer would pick up the "legacy" costs

    2. – The existing plants would be shuttered in the rust-belt states.

    3. – the guys who know how to build and run auto plants would duplicate the Saturn manufacturing model – in right-to-work Sunbelt states.

    Of course all of this would play holy heck with EMR's ideas about New Urban Regions … because he treats them like they are permanent and static fixtures on the landscape instead of things that can grow, shrink, and even go away completely while brand new ones spring up somewhere else.

  15. “because he treats them like they are permanent and static fixtures on the landscape “

    That’s because his entire ideology is based on the concept of permanent conservation easements. Once verything outside the clear edge is permamently cast in sstone, marginalized or taxed to extinction, forever, then there will be no choice but to have whatever is left be permanent as well.

    Central planning at its finest.

    RH

  16. E M Risse Avatar

    “Of course all of this would play holy heck with EMR’s ideas about New Urban Regions … because he treats them like they are permanent and static fixtures on the landscape instead of things that can grow, shrink,…”

    Another Larry Strawperson. Cite one source where EMR said that or anything like that.

    “… and even go away completely while brand new ones spring up somewhere else.”

    Here, there is more to discuss.

    Larry: show us the major urban agglomeration(s) — “city,” “city”-state; major agglomeration in an empire or nation-state, or any Industrial Center (defined in SotF) or New Urban Region that has gone away.

    EMR will give you Atlantis, Pompeii — and others that disappeared due to natural disasters — and the ones destroyed by Guns, Germs and Steel in the ‘conquest’ of the ‘new’ world.

    If there was an economic / geographic rationale for the emergence of major urban agglomerations they surive and morph to meet new conditions (Carthage is gone but Tunis is there, Troy was never that big and was dependent on the weakness of arcaic sailing technology, Machu Picchu was small and a hideout, not an urban center…)

    Some that now exist may shrivel unless they beocome Balanced because there is more land devoted to urban land uses that there is a foreseeable need — the wrong pattern and density of settlement.

    Every New Urban Region will evolve the means to create and repair vehicles that provide Mobility and Access to the extent that resources allow for vehicular use.

    Think Fundamental Transformation.

    EMR

  17. I don’t know about “going away” but certainly they grow and shrink and evidenced by the decline of the rust belt and the rise of sun belt areas.

    Okay – so the point here – is that WHERE companies and industries CHOOSE to locate – or not or go out of existence altogether – has virtually nothing to do with what some folks would think necessary for a healthy and balanced New Urban Region.

    If GM and/or FORD go down – what happens to the New Urban Regions economies if Toyota and Nissan in OTHER New Urban Regions take that business?

    If would seem… if nothing else… we’d have non-static New Urban Regions.. shrinking/contracting … and expanding… depending on different factors.. almost none of which have to do with “balance”.

    so.. New Urban Regions are not carefully planned and maintained… but rather …if not outright accidents of fate… certainly not the result of someone saying ” we’ll put this industry in Detroit because they have lost balance and need it more than Birmingham”.

    If Mercedes wants to locate in Birmingham.. they will.. based on what is good for Mercedes first… for sure…

  18. Anonymous Avatar

    “Cite one source where EMR said that or anything like that.”

    Doesn’t the clear edge imply that nothing can happen outside of that?

    Doesn’t the claim that 95% of the population should live on 5% of the land, imply that this is a permanenet condition?

    Denying that you have said what you have said, does nothing to promote anyones sustainable belief in your veracity.

    RH

  19. not quite.

    EMR uses what he calls “Urban Support Regions” to provide certain things “outside of the clear edge” of New Urban Regions.

    I never quite caught whether or not Urban Support Regions have their own clear edges or if such regions have a one-to-one relationship with a particular New Urban Region or if Urban Support Regions support multiple New Urban Regions.

  20. E M Risse Avatar

    Larry, it would be so easy for you to read the definitions of USRs and NURs and then you could answer your own questions.

    “EMR uses what he calls “Urban Support Regions” to provide certain things “outside of the clear edge” of New Urban Regions.”

    No No No!

    The borders between NURs and USRs have Countryside on both sides of the border.

    The Clear Edge is around the Urbansides that exist in both NURs and USRs.

    Waterloo is an urban agglomeration of Beta Community scale in an USR.

    Every NUR has a lot of Countryside — usually 90 percent of the total area of the NUR is outside Clear Edges.

    This area is outside both the Clear Edge around the Core(Cores in complex NURs like Washington-Baltimore) of around the Disaggregated urban enclaves (that might evolve to make up Balanced but Disaggregated Communities) in the Countryside.

    “I never quite caught…”

    Because you did not bother to read.

    “… whether or not Urban Support Regions have their own Clear Edges or if such regions have a one-to-one relationship with a particular New Urban Region …”

    No the definition of an Urban Support Region is that it supports more than one NUR. DelMarVa for example or the Northern Rocky Mountain URS.

    “…or if Urban Support Regions support multiple New Urban Regions.”

    That is the definition of an USR. It would be so easy for you to just read the GLOSSARY…

    EMR

  21. Anonymous Avatar

    And it is so easy to make the truth whatever you want, when you control the definitions.

    RH

  22. Anonymous Avatar

    Ray,

    Thats the definition of Philsophy in my book

    EMR is a settlement pattern philosopher.

    All theory and no practical realworld examples. I have better stuff to do than argue in the townsquare like the greeks did in their day over something that will never see the light of day in reality.

    NMM

  23. Anonymous Avatar

    EMR,

    Feel free to move to Europe. I would point to the fact that for all the economic woes the USA is in Europe has it much worse.

    The same Europe that has much more regulation I might add.

    The housing market was overbought a correction was needed and now it is oversold.

    NMM

  24. Anonymous Avatar

    “I have better stuff to do than argue in the townsquare like the greeks did in their day over something that will never see the light of day in reality.”

    Maybe, except his ideas or similar ones have been promoted with such zeal and repeated so often that they have become accepted wisdom in some places. As in “Residential doesn’t pay.”

    The result is events like Kelo vs New London in which good people were told to leave because other uses were worth more money.

    The result is my supervisor tellling me he wants me out, to be replaced by someone wealthy.

    EMR’s ideas may be stupid, uneconomic, and unrealistic, but they are supported by people with lots of money, attempting to preserve “their space” beyond the clear edge.

    It is possible to be stupid and unrealistic, and still be dangerous. It is too bad really, once in a while he has a real gem, he just needs an idea filter that works.

    RH

  25. Anonymous Avatar

    Kind of like a philsopher again. Very smart guy with lots of ideas and occasionally they might actually work :-p.

    NMM

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