Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Brain Teaser of the Day

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

OK, class, here is the mental exercise of the day. Consider the implication of the following sets of facts:

2004 population
Houston-Sugarland-Baytown metro area: 5.5 million
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro area: 5.3 million

2005 Housing Starts
Houston (single family): 55,200
Washington (single family): 18,500
Houston (multi-family): 16,600
Washington (multi-family): 9,500

Houston and Washington are two of the fastest-growing large metro areas in the United States. But one has an affordable housing crisis and the other doesn’t. Deduce which is which, and give the reasons why.

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27 responses to “Brain Teaser of the Day”

  1. Freedom Works Avatar
    Freedom Works

    Houston is vastly more affordable.

    Why?

    Because Houston is the last major city in America without any significant government zoning.

    Before some of you panic at the idea of no zoning, there is “private zoning” at the neighborhood level in the form of private covenants available in both older subdivisions and new home developments. Ed Risse should like this, because it is really land use government at the neighborhood scale.

    So if you want to live in a neighborhood where nothing is going to change, you can buy (or rent) in a subdivision or planned community with covenants also known as “deed restrictions”.

    But by not having government mandated zoning that restricts change, Houston is much more dynamic and is able to grow and meet changing market demands without the debilitating political conflict you see in the Washington region over growth and development.

    Houston is also rated one of the best cities for minority small businesses. I suspect this is because of the lower cost of entry in the form of lower rents.

    With no government zoning, it isn’t just housing that is cheaper. Office and retail rents are also lower, because there is no monopoly rent created by the government through restrictive zoning.

    REITs like Boston Properties brag on their web site about how they like to invest in supply constrained markets. Obviously, they can extract ever higher rents thanks in part to monopoly zoning.

    http://www.bostonproperties.com/site/about/core_strategy.aspx

    “Concentrate Activities Where High Barriers to Entry Exist

    We focus our development expertise within those markets where the lack of available sites and the difficulty of receiving the necessary approvals for development and the necessary financing constitute high barriers to the creation of new supply…”

    Zoning is just another hidden way government makes life more expensive for the middle class and unaffordable for the working poor.

    Zoning also fuels political corruption at the local level.

  2. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Freedom Works, I agree with most of what you say. The Houston model does a far superior job of delivering affordable housing. The possible downside of the Houston experiment is traffic congestion and environmental impact. I don’t know the facts, so I won’t try to draw strong conclusions. But here are the questions I would ask: (1) How bad is traffic congestion, and how much has Houston spent on building more roads? (2) To what extent is Houston’s auto-dependent economy vulnerable to spikes in gasoline prices? (3) And what is the impact of Houston’s pattern of development on the environment?

    A partial answer to the first question is available. According to the 2005 Urban Mobility report, the Washington metro area experienced 145 million man-hours of delay in 2003, Houston metro area 136 million man-hours. Not as bad as Washington, but not a whole lot better.

    Final question: Is zoning the friend or enemy of smart, transportation-efficient development?

  3. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Is that 9,500 Washington multi-family or 95,000?

    I’m guessing 9,500.

  4. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Anonymous 11:26, you’re right, it’s 9,500. I’ve corrected the text in the original post.

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    US President Tim Kalemkarian, US Senate Tim Kalemkarian, US House Tim Kalemkarian: best major candidate.

  6. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    FUN BUT NO TEASER

    To have a fair teaser one must compare apples with apples. Here are some of the problems off the top of our head upon first reading:

    GOVERNANCE CONTEXT: Houston New Urban Region is in one state, Washington / Baltimore New Urban Region is in four plus the Federal District.

    It is overly simplistic to say there is “no zoning in Houston.” The total package of land use controls vary widely from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. More important there are MUDs (Municipal Utility Districts) and independent “cities” with extra territorial powers resulting in fights over roads, schools, water, sewer, storm drainage, postal zones and many other things that allow politics with a small “P” to convolute the settlement pattern. See the Woodlands and Columbia chapters of Ann Forsyth’s useful but incomplete 2005 book “ReFormInG, SubUrbiA.”

    CRITICAL MASS: Houston NUR has Galveston and a few other adjacent urbanized enclaves, Washington / Baltimore NUR has a whole constellation of mini, micro and muddy metros concocted by the Census Bureau. This clouds the fact that Washington / Baltimore NUR is twice the size of Houston NUR.

    SPACIAL DISTRIBUTION: The last time we ran the numbers, the density inside the NUR region Boundaries is about the same. The density inside the Clear Edges is, however, far different and there are bigger gaps between Zentrums Houston NUR in due to scatteration at the Beta Village and Beta Community scale.

    Many of the housing starts in Washington / Baltimore NUR are outside the Washington MSA.

    Because of many factors more of the “single family” dwelling units in the Houston NUR are attached, not detached and more of the “multi family”dwelling units are rentals and not higher end condos.

    MOBILITY AND ACCESS: Houston NUR (Texas DOT and toll authorities and now private developers with Bridgeland) have built / are building three beltways, an Inner Loop and radial corridors matching every desire line. Washington / Baltimore NUR has two beltways and far larger angles between the radials.

    Texas DOT design of Interstates has distributed nonresidential land uses along every corridor. See our “Interstate Crime” column.

    Houston has finally launched its first adult shared-vehicle system, Washington / Baltimore has the second most heavily use system in the US of A.

    There is again a common theme: Congestion. In spite of billions more spent on Roadways and the fact that it is half the size, Houston NUR has for the past 25 years ranked with the far larger urban agglomerations in hours of delay, etc. Talk to those on the ground in Texas DOT and they have no idea what to build next that might solve the problem.

    Of course, there is nothing they could build. Not more roads and for sure not more Big Boxes as someone posted as a suggestion for Fairfax Counties nine Beta Communities. Simplistic answers like “less government control” or “more government control” are for simpletons.

    To understand human settlement patterns and figure out a way to solve the Mobility and Access Crisis or the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis one must compare apples with apples and that means the organic components of human settlement.

    ON SECOND READING: Wait a minute I just reread the “teaser”!

    It is a trick question within a trick question!

    Houston may, in conventional wisdom parlance not have “an affordable housing crisis” because there are lower housing costs but:

    There is sure an Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis in the Houston NUR and thus the congestion.

    And do not get me started on the issue of quality, and the fact that the codes and standards are different or that the market does not require basements for most units…

    For all these reasons comparing a three bedroom, two bath, two car garage detached units on a 14,000 square foot lot between the two regions is still apples and kumquats.

    You get the idea.

    EMR

  7. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Ok.

    So you’ve got two job offers. Both pay $60,000 a year. One ob is is suburban Houston and one is in downtown DC.

    Which one do you choose?

  8. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    In 1972 Bernard Siegan published a study concerning Houston and its state of nonzoning. In it, he points out that most business uses segregate themselves from both residential and noncompatible commercial or industrial uses, just as in other cities.

    The main difference is inthe availability and cost of housing. The fact that it is plentiful and lower in cost, especially for lower income people was reinforced by Richard Peiser in 1981.

    It is true that many Houson areas are protected by private covenants. But there is a VERY significant difference between private covenants and zoning. We may very well have regulation without, however, the difference is that landowners must be convinced to enter into suuch convenants voluntarily, and largely at their own cost.

    The fact of covenants in Houston actually support the ideas suggested by Siegan: namely that the supposed benefits of zoning offered by cities otherwise similar to Houston are largely non-existant.

    This is 1972 and 1981 data. There is nothing new here except that other cities still refuse to face the facts.

  9. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Ed can’t stand the idea that what may be our best example of a large free market has eveloved in a way other than he claims it should.

    However, he is correct in pointing out the multiplicity of governments in the DC area are a large part of the problem. The obvious solution should be less governement and less interference in planning, not more.

  10. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: kumquats

    It’s a topic worthy of discussion and debate in my view.

    Both are put forth on a comparison basis as MSAs.

    EMR’s points … all due respect – seem a little more like random potshots rather than compelling comparisons and contrasts.

    So – if MSAs are the wrong choices for comparison – it would seem to me to clearly define what the NURs are (and are not) for each region.

    And no matter how you cut it – the bottom line – as pointed out by Ray is that for a person looking for a job and a place to live, they are going to have a easier time finding affordable housing in the Houston area. I don’t see how EMR can effectively rebut that – or to put it another way – I do not see that claim – effectively rebutted.

    We just had a discussion about the “problem” of the creation of de-facto rooming houses in neighborhoods meant to be SFRs.

    I’d be curious to know if the Houston area has the same issue or not…

    … then the issue of zoning … I feel, we need to be more specific in my view because “zoning” is a generic term that has different meanings for different jurisdictions even in NoVa .. or Richmond.. or Virginia or etc…

    … zoning… in terms of NURs – philosophy, concept, and best practice models that currently exist “in the wild”.

    so.. can we start off with a NUR comparison between Houston and Wash Metro if we don’t like MSAs?

  11. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Thank you, Ed. I don’t know diddly about Houston, so I can’t comment about it. I have no doubt that Houston has an “accessibility” problem, with housing scattered over wide areas. But is that accessibility problem worse than the accessibility problem in the Washington New Urban Region?

    Washington has both an affordability and an accessibility problem. Houston has mainly an accessibility problem.

  12. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    “And no matter how you cut it – the bottom line – is that for a person looking for a job and a place to live, they are going to have a easier time finding affordable housing in the Houston area. I don’t see how EMR can effectively rebut that – or to put it another way – I do not see that claim – effectively rebutted.”

    Larry:

    It all depends on location.

    If the job is the Zentrum of the Houston New Urban Region (inside the Inner Loop is a good approximation which is where most of those tall buildings are that you see when the skyline is panned in broadcasts of the Rockets Games) then there is almost no Affordable and Accessible housing.

    That is especially true for housing that a person earing over $50,000 a year would feel safe living in.

    If the job is in The Woodlands at R=32 (and a few other places) then good housing and good schools can be within walking distance if you buy or rent a 25 year old dwelling.

    The Woodlands is the Beta Community in the Houston NUR that has evolved the farthest toward being an Alpha Community. That is because it was planned that way and has strayed less than most of the Planned New Communities until the past 10 years.

    But the market lives. The $50,000 job in the Woodlands pays $75,000 in Houston Zentrum. (It pays $105, 000 in the Federal Distict.)

    The reason has to do with the weather, air quality, tax burden distribution and other not-just-job-or-shelter considerations.

    Please stop looking for a free lunch (aka, a way to avoid Fundamental Change). There are no easy solutions. As we noted in the above post “less government control” or “more government control” and simplistic answers are for simpletons.

    If one does not know the Houston NUR, they would be well advised to not use it an example of anything they may want to champion.

    I will have been a participant and careful observer of Houston NUR for 35 year come this June. The Region has evolved just exactly the way one would expect, if they understand the parameters of settlement pattern evolution.

    Houston NUR is one of the best places to demonstrate the wisdom of Regional Metrics and the validity of the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework.

    EMR

  13. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Jim Bacon:

    One of the great things about you is that when you do not know diddly about something, you admit it!

    The prior post may have ansered your question but let me just add one note:

    For the size of the NUR and due to the fact that there is not yet much shared-vehicle mobility beyond “bus-for-those-who-have-no-choice” congestion / accessibity is worse.

    That is especially true becasue of all the money that has been spent on Roadway “solutions.”

    On the other hand it proves the Autonomobility argument in spite of all those whistling past the graveyard.

    EMR

  14. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    A NOTE OF THANKS FOR “FREEDOM WORKS”

    This is as good a place as any to enter a note of thanks to “Freedom Works.”

    We will not have a column ready for Bacon’s Rebellion this week. We are working on Chapter 2 of BRIDGES which is “A 200-Million Car Pile-Up: The Mobility and Access Crisis.” The center piece is a column / backgrounder titled “The Problem With Cars.”

    In his recent postings on Big Box centers and on Houston, “Freedom Works” has provided some great “you-will-not-believe-what-some-whistling-past-the-graveyard-of-Autonomobility-are-saying” quotes.

    “Freedom Works” is a great libertarian mantra.

    It needs to be kept in mind, however, that:

    • Individual and household freedom only “works” in the context of a Balanced Community in a sustainable New Urban Region.

    • A Balanced Community requires:

    A Balance of J / H / S / R /A, and

    A Balance of individual rights and community responsibilities.

    Have a great Memorial Day!

    EMR

  15. Freedom Works Avatar
    Freedom Works

    EMR:

    I am sorry to see you are such a socialist when it comes to property rights.

    George Will had a good column in the WP today about how socialism screws the poor in transportation too by limiting competition and driving up the price of a cab ride for those who cannot afford a car.

    Sorry to disappoint you, but the Woodlands is a sideshow in terms of the greater Houston region, sort of like what Columbia means to Washington, D.C.

    For that matter, it isn’t as well executed as Reston Town Center. But as far flung suburbs go, it is “clean” as Joe Biden might say.

    Individual freedom works when the government allows the market to price accessibility. With freedom, the market will develop a “Balanced Community” when and where it is desired by the free choices of individual consumers.

    You know I am a big advocate of tolling all limited access roads including peak hour pricing. I really think much of what you want to see would develop in that environment assuming zoning restrictions got out of the way of progress.

    By the way, you can buy a 4 bedroom brick single family home in a good neighborhood on an 8,000 square foot lot inside the 610 Loop in Houston for less than $300,000. The same house in an equivalent location in the DC area would cost $750,000 or more.

    There is affordable housing everywhere in Houston. Lots of people commute for the same reasons they do here: they want even cheaper, newer housing and don’t mind listening to books on tape or whatever while commuting.

    I don’t believe in a command economy where the government tells citizens how far they can commute to work. Houston is now adding commuting capacity with new toll roads. User pays is hardly a mantra. It’s fair, and it keeps Chichester out of my pocket.

  16. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    I agree, in general with the comments of Freedom Works. That said, EMR is correct in saying there is a distinct lack of housing in the downtown commercial area. Call it the Crystal City of Houston.

    It would be interesting if some (disinterested) party provided some kind of Accessibility index, but as it is, we just argue about it in a vaccuum. I’d say something like the average number of jobs and commercial venues available to homes of the median value within a region, within, say, 20 minutes and $10 dollars.

    It does seem to me that EMR shot himnself in the foot with this argument: “The $50,000 job in the Woodlands pays $75,000 in Houston Zentrum. (It pays $105, 000 in the Federal Distict.)”

    It seems to me that this is EXACTLY the crux of the problem. If you have to pay $105,000 to get someone to take a $50,000 job in the Federal district, then it would seem there are massive cost savings to be made by moving large chunks of the federal government, and contractors.

    Doesn’t this argument say that such areas are distinctly non-competititive? BTW, I know several people who have turned down or walked away from $105,000 + jobs in the District, because it simply wasn’t worth it any longer.

    “As we noted in the above post “less government control” or “more government control” and simplistic answers are for simpletons.”

    Touché. I don’t think I ever claimed that less government control meant less problems. Certainly Houston has plenty of those. But the way to make the most people happy is to let most of them do pretty much as they please. Naturally, that means that the one group you cannot allow to do as they please is the one that would prescribe how others “ought” to live for one reason or another.

    It should be easy to explain to them that only by allowing others to live as they please, can they be guaranteed more or less the same privilege.

    So, what does this kind of balance between rights and responsibilities mean in the context of zoning? It isn’t a question of whether Houston works, but whether it would work better under zoning. What if housing prices are lower in Houston because of the threat of the kinds of nuisances that are prevented by zoning?

    Large central cities and truly rural areas are generally more freewheeling with respect to zoning. The former because most of the land is already developed, so we are faced with tradeoffs of re-development, and the latter because a)development is unlikely, and b) those that own the property would also be the beneficiaries (or neighbors of the beneficiaries).

    It is only in the suburbs where blocks of homeowners are able to politically slam the door by restricting their (yet undeveloped) neighbors. It is hard to find a suburb that does not have restrictive zoning, so it is hard to say what the results might be. Those that live there can afford to be rationally ignorant of the actual effects of zoning. After all, most zoning controversies involve suburban restrictions on undeveloped land.

    Again, what does the balance between rights and responsibilities mean in the context of zoning? It means a restricted landowner ought to be able to see that the uniform application of (his) restriction is in the long term interest of himself and other landowners in the community. By extension, this means that other landowners and the community ought to be able and willing to show that this is so.

    The calculations should be expected to change over time, and the restrictions with them. Those who would prescribe how others should live ought likewise to be able to see that uniform application of their prescriptions is ultimately not in their long term interests.

    Is that unsimplistic enough?

  17. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    “I really think much of what you want to see would develop in that environment assuming zoning restrictions got out of the way of progress.”

    I agree. But the assumption that zoning restrictions will get out of the way of progress is a big one. But I also think that many who advocate tolling and congestion pricing do so only as a way to tax the other guy, without realizing the many other changes that such a policy might cause. Among them is likely to be more development in new places, some of them presently undeveloped.

    Adding the cost of tolling and congestion pricing on top of the cost of paying $105,000 for a $50,000 job, might very well be the tipping point.

    Assuming that zoning restrictions get out of the way of progress. But if that does not happen, you will have central areas that become more and more unsustainable, with no real options for other solutions.

    And there is still the cost associated with collecting and administering said tolls. I’m not convinced it is efficient, regardless of the technology employed.

    EMR would say that those who enjoy uncongested roadways in rural or far suburban areas are the ones who are getting the most for their money, and THEY are the ones who should be charged 10x.

    I think that congestion pricing for roads based on demand is misplaced. The demand isn’t for roads: the demand is for access to jobs. We can provide access with roads, if we choose, we can do it with rail and transit if we choose, or combinations of both as well as other alternatives. So far, we have been unable to do this.

    We could provide more access to jobs by having more habitations where the jobs are and more jobs where the habitations are. So far, we have been unable to do this either.

  18. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: “Individual freedom works when the government allows the market to price accessibility. With freedom, the market will develop a “Balanced Community” when and where it is desired by the free choices of individual consumers.”

    this is the crux as far as I am concerned.

    EMR claims that there are subsidies and policies that create imbalances and that (I assume) if there are not available strategies to do away with the fundamental imbalances that Government must step in with “rules”.

    The problem is – the Government usually expresses itself as a sledgehammer with a scalpel is required so I have no confidence that government dictates will produce balanced communities.

    I’m willing to accept some rule changes as long as it is clearly demonstrated that they will not cause harm or screw up the market even worse.

    So .. I’m waiting to see specific implementations… and/or existing models that “work” – along with honest critiques of where they do not work.

  19. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: “I think that congestion pricing for roads based on demand is misplaced. The demand isn’t for roads: the demand is for access to jobs. We can provide access with roads,”

    The issue is who should pay for this access.

    Do you tax everyone equally on the premise that it has been decided that roads are the best way to provide more jobs?

    I could ask a dozen more similiar questions but the point is that if you believe in the market – then you believe in everyone having to freedom to engage in transactions – quid-quo-pro arrangements where you pay for what it is that you want and need.

    Once the government gets involved in this – someone decides for you – what you need, what you don’t need and takes your money even if it is decided that someone else’s “need” is more than yours and your money is reallocated thusly.

    This is what happens with the gas tax.

    VDOT “decides” that your needs or subordinate to others and diverts your money accordingly.

    Congestion pricing solves this problem because then you get to directly vote on whether you want the quid-pro-quo transaction – or not.

    And when you and thousands of others vote – the market responds to your need – because it has, in hand, the money you gave them to meet your need.

  20. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    A NOTE FOR FREEDOM WORKS

    A few thoughts on your comments of 7:04 PM:

    “I am sorry to see you are such a socialist when it comes to property rights.”

    I have no idea what this means. It is clear that without a community and a community governance structure (as articulated by Aristotle) there are no “rights” and no “property.” Thus the need for Balance of individual rights and community responsibilities.

    “George Will had a good column in the WP today about how socialism screws the poor in transportation too by limiting competition and driving up the price of a cab ride for those who cannot afford a car.”

    Will’s column was entertaining and he made some good points. No rational person can defend the NYC cab system nor the one in Minneapolis. That said, Will’s line about impacting the poor that you jumped on was a silly throw away. Taxi cabs, especially in NYC, are overwhelmingly used by “suits” not by those at the bottom of the economic food chain. What you and George both missed is the fact that taxi cabs are private vehicles in the context of the Private Vehicle Mobility Myth. Now if they became jitneys…

    “Sorry to disappoint you, but the Woodlands is a sideshow in terms of the greater Houston region, sort of like what Columbia means to Washington, D.C.”

    The Woodlands (and Greater Woodlands) – as with Greater Reston, Greater Columbia, Greater Irvine, Greater Fairfax Centre and other Planned New Communities in the US of A – is much more of a sideshow than similar places in the European Union and now China and Japan. However, as we document in Chapter 18 of “The Shape of the Future,” Planned New Communities can teach us all a lot about what might happen if location variable costs were fairly distributed and how settlement patterns might evolve to be far more sustainable.

    “For that matter, it isn’t as well executed as Reston Town Center. But as far flung suburbs go, it is “clean” as Joe Biden might say.”

    A classic statement of Geographic Illiteracy. Reston Town Center is the focus of the Zentrum of Greater Reston. Do you mean that it is better designed than the Town Center of Greater The Woodlands? When completed both will have many of the same attributes, especially now that Tom de A. is working on The Woodlands.

    “Individual freedom works when the government allows the market to price accessibility. With freedom, the market will develop a “Balanced Community” when and where it is desired by the free choices of individual consumers.”

    I am not sure what you intend by all the words you are using but in general that is a sound statement.

    “You know I am a big advocate of tolling all limited access roads including peak hour pricing. I really think much of what you want to see would develop in that environment assuming zoning restrictions got out of the way of progress.”

    I have no idea who you are or what you advocate. I agree that tolling / congestion pricing is a way to start to more fairly allocate location costs as is weight – distance fees for freight. I also think you put far too much stock in just removing “zoning.” The Houston NUR is a perfect example of a place that ends up with dysfunctional settlement patterns in spite of making a fetish of not having zoning. You may have heard that we advocate Fundamental Change in governance structure, not just changing on element of the land use control structure.

    “By the way, you can buy a 4 bedroom brick single family home in a good neighborhood on an 8,000 square foot lot inside the 610 Loop in Houston for less than $300,000. The same house in an equivalent location in the DC area would cost $750,000 or more.”

    The area within the 610 Loop is about 12,500 acres. That is about the same size as Arlington County. I am sure you are right about finding a unit you describe. I am not sure Houstonians would call the “neighborhood” in which such a unit was located “good.” Also in this area are places like River Oaks with prices that rival parts of Greater North Arlington, and the Beta Villages of Georgetown, McLean and Bethesda. The critical issue is Balance. There is not much more balance in R=2.5 or R=10 from the Centroid of Houston than there is from the Centroid of the National Capital Subregion.

    “There is affordable housing everywhere in Houston.”

    But not near the jobs and services that citizens who live in those dwellings hold or need.

    “Lots of people commute for the same reasons they do here: they want even cheaper, newer housing and don’t mind listening to books on tape or whatever while commuting.”

    And they run up congestion costs – individual, collective, public and private just like in the Washington – Baltimore New Urban Region. As Jim Bacon pointed out above, with half the population, Houston racks up almost as many total hours of delay as Washington. [OK, OK, that is another kumquat / pomegranate comparison. No one knows what the real numbers are due to the factors that we outline in our column “Spinning Wheels, Spinning Data” 20 September 2004.]

    “I don’t believe in a command economy where the government tells citizens how far they can commute to work.”

    I doubt that I have ever met anyone who does believe in such a system. That is a pure strawman. We advocate a fair allocation of cost.

    “Houston is now adding commuting capacity with new toll roads.”

    But as in every other New Urban Region in the US of A when those roadways are completed, regional traffic congestion will be worse.

    “User pays is hardly a mantra.”

    I am not sure what that means in the context of this paragraph.

    “It’s fair,”

    Let us say, “more fair.” The current dysfunctional distribution of origins and destinations generated by (and to support) Autonomobility require Fundamental Change in settlement patterns for there the be a fair, level playing field.

    “and it keeps Chichester out of my pocket.”

    John will be gone soon but without Fundamental Change in governance structure those that step into his shoes will not be able to do any better.

    EMR

  21. Darrell -- Cheapeake Avatar
    Darrell — Cheapeake

    Ah yes, Fundamental Change. Everyone has affordable housing, they walk to work and the store. No need for a car.

    Some have been down that road before. That’s why their decendents live in the big cities, own their own house and car, and pick and choose where they want to work.

    http://www.coalwoodwestvirginia.com/scrip500.JPG

  22. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    “I’m willing to accept some rule changes as long as it is clearly demonstrated that they will not cause harm or screw up the market even worse.”

    Right. Or the way I said it:

    “It means a restricted landowner ought to be able to see that the uniform application of (his) restriction is in the long term interest of himself and other landowners in the community.”

    It is the part about “clearly demonstrated” where we fall apart.
    If we are not rational, then we will be able to see only what we choose to see. “Screwing up the market” and “long term interests” are part and parcel of the same thing. EMR frequently takes entities to task becasue of their interest in short term profits. In reality all that amounts to is a failure to recognize that different entitites have different discount rates.

    If we are going to make rules that have long term benefits, then they are not economic unless they consider the required discount rate. That is the rate that makes people indifferent between long term gains and short term gains.

  23. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    If “(as articulated by Aristotle) there are no “rights” and no “property.””, then clearly this was one of the many instances in which he was both wrong, and irrelevant to today’s society.

  24. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    “Planned New Communities can teach us all a lot about what might happen if location variable costs were fairly distributed and how settlement patterns might evolve to be far more sustainable.”

    Yeah, like why Reston went bankrupt.

    Don’t get me wrong. I agree with your premise about location variable costs, I just disagree with your conclusion about the actual results (provided ALL costs are included in the argument.)

  25. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    “The current dysfunctional distribution of origins and destinations generated by (and to support) Autonomobility require Fundamental Change in settlement patterns for there the be a fair, level playing field.”

    I agree we have a dysfunctional distribution of origins and destinations. I don’t agree that this dysfunctional distribution was either generated by or designed to support autonomobilty: that is an unfounded conspiracy theroy. This can be demonstrated historically: we had dysfunctional distributions of origins and destinations long before we had automobiles.

    Besides, if you were REALLY in favor of a level playing field, then it would be one that included a cost effective role for private vehicles, wherever they turn out to be the best option.

  26. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re:
    ‘… cost effective role for private vehicles, wherever they turn out to be the best option.”

    with mobility though… it’s not so much about cost-effectiveness as it is about personal preferences, convenience and flexibility – which are more subjective and not easily converted to financial tangibles.

    For instance, for folks on company travel – is it cheaper to have employees use transit/cabs/limos/vans or rent a car?

  27. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Answer to brain teaser:

    A single year of data is absolutely, totally irrelevent to the creation of assets that last 50 years or more. No statistically valid conclusions can be drawn from a single year of data. This is where the cold, hard reality of math meets the psycho-babble of New Urban Areas and clear edges.

    For the trend on Houston housing starts:

    http://www.houston.org/blackfenders/08DW001.pdf

    2005 was the the Houston area’s biggest housing start year since 1983.

    As for the Washington Area?

    Here’s a pretty good article that addresses Washington area housing starts and even ties in with another recent posting on Baconsrebellion with the ususal inane commentary.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/26/AR2006122601121.html

    A key paragraph in this article reads:

    “According to the National Association of Realtors, housing starts have fallen 23.5 percent between October 2004 and October 2006, and data released this month by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors show home sales in that area plunged 45 percent between November 2004 and November 2006. Home sales in suburban Maryland are down 34 percent between November 2004 and November 2006, according to the Maryland Association of Realtors.”.

    Hmmm…..

    Comparing a single year from a market that is (in 2005 and 2006) booming with a market that is (in 2005 and 2006) struggling?

    A single year?

    Regarding the construction of assets that stay “in inventory” for 50 years”?

    No conclusion can be reached from this data. None whatsoever. That’s the answer to the “brain teaser”.

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