The Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia Projects significant erosion in public school enrollment in Virginia through 2030 — the effect of a seemingly permanent Covid-prompted loss of some 40,000 students to private schools and home schooling, combined with a shrinking birthrate that was evident before the Covid epidemic. Hamilton Lombard has the story here.
To see a map showing gainers and losers, read on….
— JAB
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Public school enrollment is one of the lesser effects of failure to reproduce our species.
Who else was expecting a subtle attack on Griswold v. Connecticut?
That is why so many social conservatives want to reduce women to being nothing more than a uterus with feet.
Well, at least they haven’t suggested a Game & Inland Fishery stamp… yet.
No worries, forced births will save the day (not). Young people are having less sex and using more reliable contraception. The cost of parenthood is high, especially for women, and they can expect no support or relief from public policy. There’s always immigration! Wait…no. Immigrants are too often the wrong color.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-08-03/young-adults-less-sex-gen-z-millennials-generations-parents-grandparents
https://www.vox.com/23971366/declining-birth-rate-fertility-babies-children
Another reason to increase the number of public school administrators and overall spending.
Will school boards put the brakes on capital improvements? They should, especially in Prince William County that is projecting flat enrollments for the future.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3c5f7b9cc3f83c0a8205a80599aad7f5bbcb0758c41c8255e886c5f91b62f69d.jpg
I wonder if Prince William County will get to the point where they tear excess schools down. You know it’s really bad when the site is still a vacant lot years later (has happened in older cities).
Some schools are hard to tear down no matter the condition of the building. You have to wait until everyone who ever went there is dead.
Manassas Park had no problem tearing down Connor Elementary School. Someone had spraypainted “BYE CES” on it it before it’s date with the bulldozer.
Is it that Northern Virginia has priced itself out of the reach of people with kids…
…or is it that people with kids don’t want to live there even if they can afford it…
…or both?
Looks like Stafford and Spotsylvania are showing continued strong growth.
Manassas Park is dark blue. Manassas Park has historically been the most affordable of places to live in Northern Virginia, so maybe people with kids just don’t want to live there.
People who live there aren’t having kids and people who want kids can’t afford to live there. The same is true in VA beach. It’s overpriced and the housing stock is old.
The housing stock in much of Northern Virginia was rapidly built during the boom of the 80s and 90s, with quality to match. I really wonder what will become of those houses in another 30 years.
When we were looking for a home, I prioritized custom built neighborhoods for that reason. You can tell the difference.
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