Big Prison Releases Likely as Legislators Exploit Pandemic

by Hans Bader

With the public distracted by the pandemic, Virginia’s liberal legislature is likely to pass laws that would release many prisoners. A special legislative session begins on August 18, to address criminal-justice and COVID-19 issues. The Democratic Caucus has agreed to expand good-time credits for prisoners, effectively shortening their sentences. Parole would be reinstated in Virginia, if legislation proposed by state Sen. John Edwards, D-Roanoke, has his way. Virginia largely abolished parole in 1995, but Edwards, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, would not only reinstate it, but apply parole retroactively to people already convicted of crimes. Legislation proposed by Sen.John Bell, D-Chantilly, would expand geriatric parole for inmates who have committed any type of crime, except those who have committed Class 1 (capital) murder.

Cumulatively, these bills would result in shorter average sentences for inmates. Shorter sentences can lead to an increased crime rate, while longer sentences tend to reduce the crime rate. The National Bureau of Economic Research has a web page titled “Sentence Enhancements Reduce Crime.” It discusses how California’s Proposition 8 reduced crime by keeping “repeat offenders” off of the streets. According to the study it cites, “Because convicted criminals were serving longer sentences, years after the law’s change they were still locked up, rather than out on the streets committing crime.” Murderers sometimes commit murder again after being released from prison, even those released from prison at an advanced age.

Virginia largely abolished parole 25 years ago, due to discontent over the fact that criminals were serving only about 30% of their sentences before being released. But parole would be restored even for murderers and rapists by Edwards’ bill, SB 5016. It would retroactively extend parole rights to current inmates, as well as giving future criminals the right to seek parole. Most willful and premeditated murders are Class 2 offenses, for which parole would be available after 15 years.

Retroactively making prisoners eligible for parole could result in unfair double-counting: It could shorten sentences that a jury already shortened based on the assumption that parole does not exist. Under the Virginia Supreme Court’s Fishback decision, criminals have been entitled to seek a shorter sentence from the jury based on the argument that parole was not available.

Parole can be sought annually: before parole was abolished, relatives of murder victims would show up at parole hearings, every year, in an effort to keep the killer of their loved one from being released. Testifying before the parole board took its toll on survivors, forcing them to relive the crime.

Hans Bader is an attorney living in Northern Virginia. This column was published originally at Liberty Unyielding.


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35 responses to “Big Prison Releases Likely as Legislators Exploit Pandemic”

  1. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Stick around the General Assembly long enough and you get to see every issue return over and over and over….In 20 years, somebody will run for governor again promising to abolish parole!

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      In the meantime, what’s Virginia’s recidivism rate relative to any other State? How about relative to, I dunno, oh say, Norway (That’s the same country as Normay for a MAGA’er).

      1. idiocracy Avatar
        idiocracy

        I think you should be comparing Virginia, to, say, Mexico for a fairer comparison.

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Virginia is the best at 23%. Norway is 20%. We compare we’ll, although I think Norway just recently claimed they’re down to 16% with latest reforms.

          1. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            I’m always suspicious of statistics that show Virginia is doing something exceptionally well. It’s like the straight-F student who gets an “A” on a test…you know some cheating was involved.

          2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Or, for once in his life, he studied.

  2. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Stick around the General Assembly long enough and you get to see every issue return over and over and over….In 20 years, somebody will run for governor again promising to abolish parole!

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      In the meantime, what’s Virginia’s recidivism rate relative to any other State? How about relative to, I dunno, oh say, Norway (That’s the same country as Normay for a MAGA’er).

      1. idiocracy Avatar
        idiocracy

        I think you should be comparing Virginia, to, say, Mexico for a fairer comparison.

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Virginia is the best at 23%. Norway is 20%. We compare we’ll, although I think Norway just recently claimed they’re down to 16% with latest reforms.

          1. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            I’m always suspicious of statistics that show Virginia is doing something exceptionally well. It’s like the straight-F student who gets an “A” on a test…you know some cheating was involved.

          2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Or, for once in his life, he studied.

  3. Oh brother where art thou?
    We just watched the movie and concert DVD’s a few weeks ago.

  4. Oh brother where art thou?
    We just watched the movie and concert DVD’s a few weeks ago.

  5. Fred Woehrle Avatar
    Fred Woehrle

    Virginia’s crime rate in recent years has been a lot lower than Maryland’s, perhaps because Virginia abolished parole and had longer sentences. Montgomery County and Fairfax County are economically similar, but have very different crime rates. In 1978, their crime rates were similar, but 20 or 30 years later, after Virginia abolished parole, their crime rates became quite different. And that was true for the states of Maryland and Virginia as a whole. As the Washington Post fact-checker Glenn Kessler pointed out, in 2007-2010, Maryland’s gun-related homicide rate was 5.53 per 100,000 versus 3.16 per 100,000 in Virginia. That’s a big difference between two states that have a lot of similar areas (and Maryland is even wealthier than Virginia, so its higher crime rate seems attributable to sentencing policy, not socioeconomics).

    Reinstating parole in Virginia, and expanding good-behavior sentence credits to an excessive level, could really increase the crime rate.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      Farifax is catching up to Montgomery. In 2019 there were 15 murders in Montgomery and 13 in Fairfax for example. Between 2000 and 2004 Fairfax County averaged 5 murders per year.

      On a state by state basis you are right. Maryland is hard on legal gun ownership but soft on crime. The net result is that places like Baltimore and Salisbury are disaster zones when it comes to violent crime, especially murder. Baltimore is habitually right up there with Detroit and St Louis.

  6. Fred Woehrle Avatar
    Fred Woehrle

    Virginia’s crime rate in recent years has been a lot lower than Maryland’s, perhaps because Virginia abolished parole and had longer sentences. Montgomery County and Fairfax County are economically similar, but have very different crime rates. In 1978, their crime rates were similar, but 20 or 30 years later, after Virginia abolished parole, their crime rates became quite different. And that was true for the states of Maryland and Virginia as a whole. As the Washington Post fact-checker Glenn Kessler pointed out, in 2007-2010, Maryland’s gun-related homicide rate was 5.53 per 100,000 versus 3.16 per 100,000 in Virginia. That’s a big difference between two states that have a lot of similar areas (and Maryland is even wealthier than Virginia, so its higher crime rate seems attributable to sentencing policy, not socioeconomics).

    Reinstating parole in Virginia, and expanding good-behavior sentence credits to an excessive level, could really increase the crime rate.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      Farifax is catching up to Montgomery. In 2019 there were 15 murders in Montgomery and 13 in Fairfax for example. Between 2000 and 2004 Fairfax County averaged 5 murders per year.

      On a state by state basis you are right. Maryland is hard on legal gun ownership but soft on crime. The net result is that places like Baltimore and Salisbury are disaster zones when it comes to violent crime, especially murder. Baltimore is habitually right up there with Detroit and St Louis.

  7. I am in favor of reintroducing parole – for non-violent offenders. Violent felons should serve every single minute of the prison sentences they earn.

    1. Fred Woehrle Avatar
      Fred Woehrle

      Sadly, if parole is reintroduced, it will likely include violent offenders, because that’s who is in prison, for the most part: violent offenders.

      In 2017, the Bureau of Justice Statistics found that 55% of state prison inmates in America were there for “violent offenses,” and only 15% for drug crimes (such as drug dealing and manufacturing). Only 4% were there for drug possession, according to a 2015 Marshall Project report.

      By “violent offenses,” I mean things like murder and rape. Not things like drunk driving, that could lead to physical harm, but aren’t intended to.

      Maryland has a much higher crime rate than Virginia, because Maryland has shorter sentences, and has parole. Virginia can expect its crime rate to climb up to Maryland’s level, if it restores parole, and cuts criminal sentences.

      That would mean a lot more dead people. As the Washington Post fact-checker Glenn Kessler pointed out, in 2007-2010, Maryland’s gun-related homicide rate was 5.53 per 100,000 versus 3.16 per 100,000 in Virginia. That was an 80% higher homicide rate in Maryland.

      1. …and Maryland has stricter gun laws than Virginia, too.

        RE: Violent vs non-violent offenders: If 55% of inmates are imprisoned for violent offenses that means 45% are imprisoned for other-than-violent offenses. That’s a substantial number of non-violent offenders.

        1. Fred Woehrle Avatar
          Fred Woehrle

          That’s true. But thieves are non-violent, and we still want to deter theft by jailing big-time thieves. Not all non-violent offenders should be released early. Drunk drivers are legally classified as “non-violent,” but their actions put people’s lives at risk. So do home invaders. It is important to save lives. I have no problem putting someone who regularly burglarizes people’s homes and drives drunk all the time in prison. Only 4% of the people in state prison in America are there for drug possession (another 11% are there for drug dealing and other drug offenses). And the clear majority of people in state prisons are there for violent crimes.

  8. I am in favor of reintroducing parole – for non-violent offenders. Violent felons should serve every single minute of the prison sentences they earn.

    1. Fred Woehrle Avatar
      Fred Woehrle

      Sadly, if parole is reintroduced, it will likely include violent offenders, because that’s who is in prison, for the most part: violent offenders.

      In 2017, the Bureau of Justice Statistics found that 55% of state prison inmates in America were there for “violent offenses,” and only 15% for drug crimes (such as drug dealing and manufacturing). Only 4% were there for drug possession, according to a 2015 Marshall Project report.

      By “violent offenses,” I mean things like murder and rape. Not things like drunk driving, that could lead to physical harm, but aren’t intended to.

      Maryland has a much higher crime rate than Virginia, because Maryland has shorter sentences, and has parole. Virginia can expect its crime rate to climb up to Maryland’s level, if it restores parole, and cuts criminal sentences.

      That would mean a lot more dead people. As the Washington Post fact-checker Glenn Kessler pointed out, in 2007-2010, Maryland’s gun-related homicide rate was 5.53 per 100,000 versus 3.16 per 100,000 in Virginia. That was an 80% higher homicide rate in Maryland.

      1. …and Maryland has stricter gun laws than Virginia, too.

        RE: Violent vs non-violent offenders: If 55% of inmates are imprisoned for violent offenses that means 45% are imprisoned for other-than-violent offenses. That’s a substantial number of non-violent offenders.

        1. Fred Woehrle Avatar
          Fred Woehrle

          That’s true. But thieves are non-violent, and we still want to deter theft by jailing big-time thieves. Not all non-violent offenders should be released early. Drunk drivers are legally classified as “non-violent,” but their actions put people’s lives at risk. So do home invaders. It is important to save lives. I have no problem putting someone who regularly burglarizes people’s homes and drives drunk all the time in prison. Only 4% of the people in state prison in America are there for drug possession (another 11% are there for drug dealing and other drug offenses). And the clear majority of people in state prisons are there for violent crimes.

  9. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    As usual, Hans Bader is trying to scare people. Abolition of parole or expansion of geriatric parole is not on the list of the House Democrats’ priorities for criminal justice and police reform. See Steve Haner’s earlier post: https://www.baconsrebellion.com/covid-workers-comp-on-house-democrat-bill-list/

    Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the issue will be considered this summer.

    An increase in the maximum amount of earned sentence credit is on the list. Currently, inmates can earn up to 4.5 days for every 30 days served (15 percent). No bills on this subject have been filed yet, so it is not possible to project the impact of any action the legislature may take.

    1. Fred Woehrle Avatar
      Fred Woehrle

      Bader is right that sentences will be cut a lot.

      The earned sentence credit legislation proposed by seven Senators would slash sentences for many long-term inmates (including inmates convicted of violent crimes) by over a third. After five years, their sentences would shrink by a day for every day they spend in prison:

      See Senate Bill 5034, available at https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/legp604.exe?202+ful+SB5034
      ….
      “1. Level I. For inmates receiving Level I sentence credits, 13 days shall be deducted from the inmate’s sentence for every 30 days served. If the inmate maintains a Level I classification beyond one year consecutively, sentence credits shall be awarded as follows: (i) during the second year, 16 days shall be deducted for every 30 days served; (ii) during the third year, 20 days shall be deducted for every 30 days served; (iii) during the fourth year, 25 days shall be deducted for every 30 days served; and (iv) during the fifth year and any consecutive year thereafter, at the rate of one day for each one day served. Level I sentence credits shall be awarded to inmates who participate in and cooperate with all programs to which the inmate is assigned pursuant to § 53.1-32.1 and who have no more than one minor correctional infraction and no serious correctional infractions.”

      1. Fred Woehrle Avatar
        Fred Woehrle

        Actually, it looks like the most serious violent crimes such as murder are excluded — although not various acts of lesser violence, or involuntary manslaughter. Or drunk drivers or home invaders. All those serious offenders could get early release under the “Release of Prisoners” bill just proposed by 7 Democratic senators, Senate Bill 5034.

      2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        I apologize for missing this bill. The LIS did not pick it up when I conducted a search.

        The earned sentence credit would remain the same for those convicted of violent crimes, including crimes against children. You are right that the offenses you mentioned would not be covered, but those offenses are generally not considered “violent” in terms of the Code.

        The Level I inmates that would receive the biggest increases in earned sentence credits are the lowest security inmates in the DOC system. Most of those have sentences of 1-3 years. Note that these additional earned sentence credits could be awarded only if the inmate has no more than one minor correctional infraction. I would bet that it would be rare to find any inmate with only one minor infraction.

        There are lots of technical problems with this bill. Primarily, it fails to define what constitutes the various Levels. If they are meant to be the security levels used by DOC in its classification system, the reality of the prison system would make the bill expensive and difficult to administer. That is because the DOC security system is not based solely on the offense committed by the offender. It also reflects the risks of escape, violence against other inmates, and violence against staff, as well as overall adjustment. Therefore, a person who had committed a violent offense and had a long sentence could have worked himself down to a Level II security level (but, with very few exceptions, not to a Level I). In such a case, would the offender get 3.5 days earned sentence credit, because he committed a violent offense or 7.5 days because he is in Level II? The bill seems to say that it would be 3.5 days. That is the type of nuance that would need to be included in the code that calculates time served. Obviously, the bill was drafted by someone who is not familiar with the DOC security classification system.

  10. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    As usual, Hans Bader is trying to scare people. Abolition of parole or expansion of geriatric parole is not on the list of the House Democrats’ priorities for criminal justice and police reform. See Steve Haner’s earlier post: https://www.baconsrebellion.com/covid-workers-comp-on-house-democrat-bill-list/

    Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the issue will be considered this summer.

    An increase in the maximum amount of earned sentence credit is on the list. Currently, inmates can earn up to 4.5 days for every 30 days served (15 percent). No bills on this subject have been filed yet, so it is not possible to project the impact of any action the legislature may take.

    1. Fred Woehrle Avatar
      Fred Woehrle

      Bader is right that sentences will be cut a lot.

      The earned sentence credit legislation proposed by seven Senators would slash sentences for many long-term inmates (including inmates convicted of violent crimes) by over a third. After five years, their sentences would shrink by a day for every day they spend in prison:

      See Senate Bill 5034, available at https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/legp604.exe?202+ful+SB5034
      ….
      “1. Level I. For inmates receiving Level I sentence credits, 13 days shall be deducted from the inmate’s sentence for every 30 days served. If the inmate maintains a Level I classification beyond one year consecutively, sentence credits shall be awarded as follows: (i) during the second year, 16 days shall be deducted for every 30 days served; (ii) during the third year, 20 days shall be deducted for every 30 days served; (iii) during the fourth year, 25 days shall be deducted for every 30 days served; and (iv) during the fifth year and any consecutive year thereafter, at the rate of one day for each one day served. Level I sentence credits shall be awarded to inmates who participate in and cooperate with all programs to which the inmate is assigned pursuant to § 53.1-32.1 and who have no more than one minor correctional infraction and no serious correctional infractions.”

  11. TooManyTaxes Avatar
    TooManyTaxes

    Police reform. Sort of like Jakie Frey was for police reform, only he only campaigned on it. He didn’t bother to do it. And every Virginia Democrat is giving him cover with their silence. Similar to how the same folks have given Northam a pass on his adult blackface.

  12. TooManyTaxes Avatar
    TooManyTaxes

    Police reform. Sort of like Jakie Frey was for police reform, only he only campaigned on it. He didn’t bother to do it. And every Virginia Democrat is giving him cover with their silence. Similar to how the same folks have given Northam a pass on his adult blackface.

  13. […] is also legislation pending in Virginia to reinstate parole. But that legislation, SB 5016, will probably not pass in this special session of the legislature. […]

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