In the course of human evolution, first came hunting-gathering, then the agricultural revolution and then the industrial revolution. Arguably, the United States has evolved into a post-industrial society, though no one seems quite sure what to call it — perhaps the knowledge economy. But what comes after that?
The Singularity, according to entrepreneur-author Ray Kurzweil and a band of like-minded futurists. And what, pray tell, is the Singularity? Read this Associated Press article for a glimpse of what it’s all about. (I noticed this article because I just happen be reading Kurzweil’s book, “The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology.”)
The Singularity is, like the analogous point in the gravitational well of black holes, a point of no return: a point when society changes dramatically and irreversibly. The changes are driven by the massive increases in computing power that will pack the power of today’s supercomputers onto a single chip, along with progress in reverse-engineering the human brain, the development of Artificial Intelligence, and incredible progress in the fields of genetics, nanotechnology and robotics.
Kurzweil talks of an age of accelerating rates of return, turning traditional economics topsy turvy, as greater computational ability enables mankind to make new technological breakthroughs at an ever accelerating rate. In the singularity, which Kurzweil foresees taking place in the late 2020s, or about 20 years from now, we can expect to see the following: robots that surpass human beings in intelligence, incredibly lengthened human life spans, and robotic/nanotechnology-driven manufacturing processes that dramatically drive down the cost of producing material goods, inexhaustible supplies of cheap, clean energy.
Kurzweil is an optimist. He is aware that there is a dark side to every beneficial advance in technology, but he is confident we can control nightmare scenarios of robots taking over the world or swarms of self-replicating nanobots consuming the face of the earth like Pharoah’s locusts. Kurzweil may well be correct that we will be seeing smart robots and 150-year life spans in my lifetime (I’m 54). But, as another futurist, Alvin Toffler observes, different human institutions evolve at different rates. The realm of science is evolving faster than any other, the world of business is close behind. But the spheres of governance, politics and law lag way behind. Indeed, at times our capacity for collective action seems almost paralyzed by gridlock. Instead of creating a world of infinite blessings, skeptics suggest, the Singularity may bring the “nerd-ocalypse.”
What will the world be like when technology gives us super-intelligent robots, genetically altered designer babies and Methuselah lifespans but the human species remains stuck in its primate-driven lust for status and power? Talk about a social security crisis! Talk about the implications of wealth, class and differential access to resources!
If Bacon’s Rebellion lasts that long, you can rest assured that we will be examining the consequences of the Singularity for Virginia.
(Photo credit of Ray Kurzweil: AFB Access World.)