Be Careful What You Ask For, You Just Might Get It

by James A. Bacon

Welcome to the new normal. In 2020 the General Assembly enacted a law giving local school districts the right to engage in collective bargaining. Our friends at the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy warned that much mischief would ensue, an assessment I shared.

On November 2022 the Prince William County Board of Supervisors adopted a collective bargaining ordinance, allowing county employees to negotiate contracts, though not to strike. “Prince William County workers are one step closer to bargaining a historic contract that will lift up all working families,” said David Broder, President of SEIU Virginia 512, reported the DCist at the time.

Now the Prince William Education Association is demanding a 17% pay raise for teachers, which, if enacted without budget cuts, would add $364 million to the county’s $1.5 billion school budget. According to the Potomac Local News, such a pay raise would require a 73% hike in homeowner tax bills. The working families paying real property taxes might beg to disagree with Broder’s assessment.

Among other demands, the teachers union is protesting a new regulation that requires teachers to teach classes remotely when bad weather disrupts in-school instruction.

I am sympathetic to teachers whose pay has been continually eroded by inflation. Despite pay raises over the past couple of years, the rising cost of living has left teachers with less buying power, just as it has done for most Americans. But 17% seems excessive given the fact that inflation over the past two years was 12%. And the objections to teaching remotely on bad-weather days seems hypocritical for a union that in 2020 demanded to maintain virtual instruction during the COVID pandemic.

The teachers union could justify pay raises exceeding inflation if they offset their higher pay with greater productivity. Unfortunately, the union appears to have zero interest in boosting productivity.

Only time will tell if the PW teachers union comes to its senses or if the local government capitulates. Whatever the outcome, I’m confident that we’ll see a lot more conflict like this in school districts where collective bargaining is permitted. As those of us old enough to have lived through the 1970s, we know that inflation has a way of intensifying labor conflict.


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72 responses to “Be Careful What You Ask For, You Just Might Get It”

  1. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
    f/k/a_tmtfairfax

    What is the ratio of non-teaching staff to teachers in PWCPS today versus 25 years ago? Even 10 years ago? How much money would be saved if the Division reduced the ratio to what it used to be? What support services provided internally could be provided through contractors at a lower cost? How much money could be saved through contracting out those services?

    How much money could be saved if the federal government actually enforced the immigration laws? Once the kids are here, we need to provide them with an education. But what if the parents were stopped at the border or bogus asylum claims tossed earlier in the process? What if ICE went after everyone who overstayed their visas? What if we offered people here illegally for a long time and who don’t have criminal records a non-immigrant visa? They could work under the protection of our labor laws, not worry about deportation and send money home.

      1. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        Ask the sky blue mayors of New York and Chicago how well our management of unauthorized / illegal immigration is going.

        I would say to ask the residents of Martha’s Vineyard (including Michelle and Barack Obama) how well unauthorized / illegal immigration os going but they booted the few immigrants sent to their liberal utopia out in a matter of days.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          like with drugs.. what brings the immigrants here in the first place? Read the article and
          you’ll be better informed. There is a huge constituency of employers who want cheap
          labor that has no minimum wage nor health and safety protections… in many ways almost
          like slaves… but still better in their mind that where they came from.

          Until we have an honest and effective E-verify program and guest worker program, they
          will continue to come and our current immigration laws if not mistaken, if the set foot
          on US soil, they are entitled, by current law, to a determination of their assylum status.

          We need to be HONEST about what the actual problem is and stop misleading people
          about the issue.

          https://www.un.org/en/academic-impact/europe-and-refugee-crisis-challenge-our-civilization

          It’s NOT just the US

          https://www.un.org/en/academic-impact/europe-and-refugee-crisis-challenge-our-civilization

          1. DJRippert Avatar
            DJRippert

            All that matters is the jump in unauthorized immigration between the Trump Administration and the Biden Administration.

            Europe doesn’t matter.
            eVerify doesn’t matter.

            The only thing that changed was the attitude of the president toward border security.

            Deflect all you want – the electorate understand the failure of the Biden Administration at the border.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            It matters first and foremost that illegals CAN get work. If they could not get hired, they’d NOT
            be calling home for others to follow!

            This is the reality for both the US, Canada and Europe!

            Ya’ll law and order types keep saying “enforce the law”.

            This is the law that is NOT being enforced!

            If you want to track down illegals and deport them why not ALSO track down
            the employers breaking the law that attracts the illegals?

            No “wall” is going to stop them. It’s not a realistic strategy but it “works” for folks
            who like to see “physical” things.

          3. DJRippert Avatar
            DJRippert

            New York and Chicago are both sanctuary cities. They refuse to cooperate with the federal government in immigration law enforcement.

            They called the tune, now they must pay the piper.

            Meanwhile, Biden and Harris have refused to enforce security at the border.

            Biden also canceled the “Remain in Mexico” program.

            Now it’s a campaign issue and whoever tells Biden what to do has decided that it will cost Biden votes. The answer? Re-start the border wall construction. And no, despite Biden’s lies to the contrary, he was not forced to restart building that wall. In fact, he had to waive a lot of environmental regulations to restart that wall.

            Needless to say, the leftist media is looking for someone to blame besides Señor Senile. They have dusted off one of their usual whipping horses – business.

            But compare the flow of unauthorized immigrants into the US under Trump vs Biden.

            Are you seriously trying to claim that Biden is more a tool of big business than Trump?

            You’d have to believe that if business was the problem all along.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I think that until we honestly deal with employers of illegal immigrants, no matter the POTUS , we are not serious about dealing with the problem.

            Business HAS BEEN the problem all along. If there were no one willing to employ the illegals,
            they’d not continue to come here.

            AND it’s not just the US. This is a big problem in Europe also.

      2. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
        f/k/a_tmtfairfax

        Two points. One, illegal immigration provides direct economic benefits to the persons here illegally and those who employ them, often at below market rates. However, it spreads the costs to society. Americans with poor educations and fewer skills face competition for the jobs for which they can qualify. Our schools and health care systems face greater burdens, which, in reduces services for people here legally and pushes taxes upward. Illegal immigration exacerbates the housing crisis, most especially at the low end and creates a larger carbon footprint, as higher incomes create more consumption. (I noticed the author doesn’t mention any of this.) It also insults all those people who have immigrated here legally.

        Two, as I’ve written several times, fixing the border does not equate to tossing out everyone who is here illegally. The law could be amended to grant non-immigrant visas to those who have been here a long time and have no criminal record. They could stay and work with full protection of our labor laws and without fear of deportation. They can send money home and even go back and visit without the need to sneak back in. To the extend we need more low-skilled workers, new non-immigrant visas can be issued.

        This change would work with E-Verify, which should become mandatory. Business violators should be fined heavily. The law should also be amended to bar anyone who makes any false statements in connection with an application for asylum permanently.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Point 1 , I largely agree with as you are describing impacts which are true.

          On Point 2, You’re describing an effective guest worker program – which would be regulated
          not only with regard to immigration but fair treatment of the workers.

          We are very much in agreement, and good on you for being honest about the issue. Now go
          convince some of the conservative types who don’t want to be honest about it and instead
          demonize immigrants and put blame on the wrong folks.

        2. Lefty665 Avatar

          Incidental note. I’ve been aware of illegals working here. Each time they showed up, initially and after going home to visit family, they had valid and different SS#s because they knew their employer would have to run them through E-Verify.

          There is a big hole somewhere in the SS#/E-Verify system and I have seen no indication that anyone is even aware of it much less actually looking to tighten it up.

          On the other side of the ledger those folks and their employers were paying SS and Medicare taxes with no expectation of collecting any benefits, and it is also likely they had some FIT and SIT withheld that they were never going to get back.

  2. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Fairfax is the big dog in the school pay world in this neck of the state. Really don’t need collective bargaining for salary. Every school system in NOVa all the way down to Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania will and do lose teachers to the NoVa jurisdiction that pay more and have better benefits.

    Every day, they get on I-95 and commute to add 5, 10K more to
    their income.

    What collective bargaining does do – is provide fair and equitable treatment of teachers and protect them from bad school principals and arbitrary and unfair treatment, which does happen.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      What collective bargaining really proves is the need for school choice and vouchers. Quality results can be delivered to tax payers and families at fraction of the cost education monopolies.

  3. UVAPast Avatar

    Public unions cause taxes to be increased. Private unions can cause corporations to be put out of business.

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      and still wages haven’t kept pace with inflation for decades now.

      1. walter smith Avatar
        walter smith

        So maybe inflation is the problem…
        Might help to quit spending money we don’t have to be used on projects that will never work or go to people as just wealth transfers, as opposed to being used more wisely by the former owner before the govt took its grift…

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      and still wages haven’t kept pace with inflation for decades now.

  4. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “Now the Prince William Education Association is demanding a 17% pay raise for teachers, which, if enacted without budget cuts, would add $364 million to the county’s $1.5 billion school budget. According to the Potomac Local News, such a pay raise would require a 73% hike in homeowner tax bills.”

    Isn’t this the same blog that laments a shortage of teachers across the Commonwealth? If they aren’t paid more, what makes you think that situation would change for the better? And, yes, all else being equal that means an increase in taxes. Question as to how much… that is best answered by the appropriate county official… Commissioner of the Revenue, perhaps…?

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      “ Teacher pay has definitely gone up over time. For example, according to the National Center for Education Statistics, the annual average salary for U.S. public elementary and secondary schools teachers was just $8,626 back in 1969 — it increased to $58,950 by 2017 and is approximately $60,000 today.”

      Sounds impressive… until you run the amounts through an inflation calculator.

      “ $8,600 in 1969 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $71,946.15 today, an increase of $63,346.15 over 54 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 4.01% per year between 1969 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 736.58%.”

    2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      PWCS teachers are amongst the highest paid teachers in the Commonwealth. They start the first year teacher at 60 grand. Add another 35% for the total compensation of 81 grand. Eric, gimme a break. Tax payers should be scrutinizing what they are getting for the Powerball jackpot sized budget bill.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Still grossly underpaid. Pick a year, any year, and let’s see if that $60G has kept pace with inflation.

        1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
          James Wyatt Whitehead

          I had to teach for 15 years to crack 60 grand. I don’t want to hear any whining from the new teacher right of college. If they chose the profession for pay they are awaiting a lifetime of difficult days and a pension that sentences them to poverty in old age.

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Same for me, sort of. But I could buy a helluva nice house and a nice car when I was making $60G.

            Is the job of teaching any less important today than it was in, oh say, 1980? Or 1990? Is it so much easier today than it was in 1980? Or 1990? Is the costs and levels of education and certification required more or less than in 1980? Or 1990?

            Then why would anyone think they can pay less?

          2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            All good points. Being a sharp one you could have chosen another path, bought a helluva McMansion, and a sports car or two. But you didn’t because money is not what you wanted. The professional satisfaction always outweighed the money, even when I complained. The more you put in, the more you got back in ways that never hit the bank account.

          3. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            You’re correct. The adage is true, “Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life.”

            I like to think that my children (maybe grandchildren) are being taught by people who “chose a job they love,” but I wouldn’t want to constantly test that theory against the other adage “you get what you pay for”.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            waxing pretty philosophical today…………. 😉

          5. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            I have a headache.

          6. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            😉

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        What 35% added compensation, James? Also, I suspect PWC is among the highest counties in terms of cost of living. But that is pretty meaningless when we are faced with a teacher shortage state-wide (as contributors have stated many times here). A seller’s market demands high prices… there is nothing one can do about that fact…

        1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
          James Wyatt Whitehead

          I suspect voters in the November 7th election will be thinking more about dollars and sense and less about what the blue team is pushing aka reproductive health and the rights of people making people.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            The Dems seem to think that abortion is an issue if you believe all the Ads.

          2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Turn out election. That issue drives the Dem base out… that much is pretty clear. If Dems turn out, they will likely win… even if Reps turnout like they did for Youngkin. A repeat of Youngkin election looks to be a Dem win. If Dems sit at home… they likely lose.

          3. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            If they think that is the big carrot it will show how out of touch they are.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            well the other side is NOT running on “pro-life”! right? Lot of law & order though…

          5. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Turn out election. That issue drives the Dem base out… that much is pretty clear. If Dems turn out, they will likely win… even if Reps turnout like they did for Youngkin. A repeat of Youngkin election looks to be a Dem win. If Dems sit at home… they likely lose.

          6. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            I am shocked that the R’s are not running ads depicting D’s as villains who will abolish gasoline car sales in just a few years from now. Paint it up the way the blue team’s false abortion ads look.

          7. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Not sure what is “false” about those ads. The Reps are pretty clear on their anti-abortion position and where they will take us if the come into power.

          8. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            Chum for the water. They will never have the votes to carry out what is being pushed in the ads.

          9. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Agree

        2. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          I assume the 35% is the cost of non-cash compensation such as health care insurance and pension contributions.

        3. Lefty665 Avatar

          35% is a pretty reasonable number for fringes. All the other stuff that loads on gross wages generally works out to 1/3-1/2 of gross wages to budget total cost.

          Your analysis of how the county share of the additional cost would break out looks pretty good. Nice job.

          Dunno how that would impact the composite index CJ addressed above.

      3. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        To add more to my previous comment about PWC….I looked up the stats for PWCS school lunches, 40% free and reduced price. I think Manassas Park is up to 50% now.

        1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
          James Wyatt Whitehead

          Yorkshire has changed, yet all the same problems are still there.

          1. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Years ago I ran across the 1984 Manassas Park Comprehensive Plan.

            Same problems back then, same problems now.

          2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            One or two redeeming qualities of MP. They had a Church’s chicken joint and Gino’s. Almost forgot about Klines too. I think the roller rink is still there.
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86e0f7abe75b922057879d4a1d882203934d955a4b27d9a6b67161aa334b6a15.jpg

          3. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Where was the Gino’s and the Church’s chicken?

            The roller skating rink was on Mathis (Skate City as I recall), in City of Manassas, it’s gone now (been gone for quite a few years) and Battlefield Ford is there, last I saw.

            EDIT: Battlefield Ford is now Ourisman Ford.

          4. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            Yeah Yorkshire had it going in those days. The Ginos is now a Taqueria and the roller rink is a Pho restaurant. All in the MP shopping center.

          5. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Dunno if you’ve been by there, but the old Manassas Park City Hall building at One Park Center Court (the big Morton steel building) has been torn down as of last month, I think. They have a new city hall across the street. That old building was originally the home of Reuter Labs, which made “natural” insecticides, and the original name of Park Center Court was “Natural Way”

  5. how_it_works Avatar
    how_it_works

    Well, I pay about $7000 a year in property taxes now.

    If they get hiked 73%, well, then, that’s what, $12,000 a year?

    That’s Northern state levels of taxation. Along with that taxation, up North, comes with higher levels of amenities.

    NOTHING in PWC is worth those levels of taxation. It’s still a crappy bedroom community filled with a bunch of poor people, like it has been for at least the 35 years I’ve lived here.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      what’s your tax rate?

      1. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        I answered that in a previous comment to you, probably about a week or two ago.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          I’m supposed to remember EVERYTHING? oh Vey! I did want to ask you about
          your guy that used excessive tp….though

          1. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            That guy? He’s living with his uncle now, who is probably wishing his brother had used a condom….

  6. What you have to look at is what impact a 17% increase for the county’s largest employer will have on the composite index that determines how much the state pays for schools, in addition to the actual pay increase from taxes.

    The Composite Index determines a school division’s ability to pay education costs fundamental to the Commonwealth’s Standards of Quality (SOQ) with local funds. The Composite Index is calculated using three indicators of a locality’s ability to pay:
    True value of real property (weighted 50 percent)
    Adjusted gross income (weighted 40 percent)
    Taxable retail sales (weighted 10 percent)
    Each locality’s index is adjusted to maintain an overall statewide
    local share of 45 percent and an overall state share of 55 percent. https://www.doe.virginia.gov/data-policy-funding/school-finance/budget-grants-management/composite-index-of-local-ability-to-pay

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      Does the Composite Index include any adjustments for demographics, especially the additional costs of teaching students who speak English as a second language?

      In Prince William County, Va for example – 31.6% of students are classified as “English learners”.

      That’s about 3X the national average.

      https://www.usnews.com/education/k12/virginia/districts/prince-william-co-pblc-schs-109221

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        that’s good question!

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          Frankly, if Prince William (like Fairfax) is a sanctuary county, they have no business demanding more money from other counties in Virginia who cooperate with enforcement of the immigration laws.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            You ask to want to ask in the first place, where are the illegals working in Prince William. If you’re
            not willing to ask that question and get the answer, the rest of it is your basic anti-immigration demonization virtue signaling IMO.

          2. DJRippert Avatar
            DJRippert

            Why would I care where illegals are illegally working?

            If PWC and Fairfax Counties want to be sanctuary counties then their citizens can pay for all the additional costs of illegal immigrants in their jurisdictions.

            It was a local choice and the results are a local responsibility.

            Ditto for Chicago and New York.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            You should care because they call back to home and say “COME, there IS work here”

            The “sanctuary” is the employers who will illegal hire workers and are not prosecuted for doing so (like they ARE in Canada)!

            Demonizing illegals and “sanctuary” cities is d-u-m-b stuff IMO. Folks are not serious
            about the problem itself, just using it as a political cudgel.

          4. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I suspect that many of them work in Fairfax and Loudoun, for people who don’t want their cheap labor living anywhere near them.

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Oh I’m sure, but the point is if they ARE illegal AND they ARE working, WHO is hiring them and
            are they obeying the law?

            These folks call home… and encourage others to come because no matter what
            we say the law is, the bottom line is there is work available and worth becoming
            an “illegal”.

          6. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Well, that’s largely because the law isn’t enforced, and hasn’t been for decades.

            Some people benefit from that.

            Others pay a heavy price.

            “Socialize costs, privatize profits”.

          7. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            yes, but it DRIVES illegal immigration. Those folks call back to home and say ” come, there ARE jobs”

            AND they DO come!

          8. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            The question that ultimately needs to be asked and answered honestly:

            Do the benefits of illegal immigration that accrue to the select few outweigh the cost to society as a whole?

  7. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “Now the Prince William Education Association is demanding a 17% pay raise for teachers, which, if enacted without budget cuts, would add $364 million to the county’s $1.5 billion school budget”

    Ummm… how can a 17% increase in teacher’s salaries (one line item out of the entire operating budget) lead to a 24% increase in the overall budget?

    “According to the Potomac Local News, such a pay raise would require a 73% hike in homeowner tax bills”

    Would really like a look at the math for this claim as well but, alas, it is hidden behind a paywall. But it doesn’t ring true that a supposed 24% increase in the school budget (one part of the entire overall county budget) would result in a 73% increase in taxes. For that to be true, RE taxes must only currently cover like about 1/4 of the school budget (I guess with the rest coming out of business taxes). If that were true (and I am reading tea leaves here) why would one assume the entire revenue increase needed would come out of RE taxes? Some interesting math going on here to be sure.

    1. Very good question. Those numbers require an explanation.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Ain’t that the truth. Numbers don’t lie, but they have little say in how they are used by those who do.

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Some details of the budget… only about 46% of the school budget comes from county transfer and only 55% of county revenues come from real property. Based on these allocations, $364 million increase in the school budget would result in $167 million increase in the county budget and that would mean about $92 million more in real estate taxes about 11% increase. Far from the 73% claimed. These figures from the PWC 2023 school and county budget. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f7f35ce840f4cb9867ff718b0a62d42a347576207ee56a88354d6852004441fd.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/56b6d80df42b2ec7c326880ec45b697b8153b86e815b2fc82f08298660d3114f.jpg

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Excellent analysis. Might have been done as due diligence part of the original post even!

          Seems like in most counties, the school budget is approx 1/2 of the budget.

          In most smaller and medium sized counties, the school is the one of the biggest if not biggest employer in the county.

          So a lot of the money is spent by teachers right back in the county AND the sales tax is levied on much of it.

          Also, in many counties , teachers/instructors are not the only employees. There are bus drivers, maintenance and operations folk, food service, etc.

        2. Since PWC has a roughly 50/50 revenue sharing agreement and exercises no oversight over the School’s budget allocation, it would require roughly doubling the $364 figure as there is no other source for the funding.

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