Presidential candidate John McCain drew a crowd tens of thousands strong at his campaign rally in Hampton Roads earlier this week, and it wasn’t just because the former naval aviator was once stationed at Oceana Naval Air Station. While his supporters share McCain’s flag-waving patriotism and his larger world view, material self interest undoubtedly lurks beneath the surface. Many Hampton Roadsters undoubtedly believe that local military establishment will fare far better under a McCain administration than an Obama one.
I’m not making a partisan statement or casting a value judgment here. My point is not to dredge up the rights and wrongs of U.S. foreign and military policy. I’m simply observing that the Elephant Clan, for better or worse, funnels more money into the military than does the Donkey Clan. Commuities dependent upon military spending, such as Hampton Roads, fare better during Elephant Clan administrations.
Back in the 1990s, the Hampton Roads economy lagged the nation in per capita income growth. That’s because the Clinton administration was spending the “peace dividend”: cutting back the size of the military and curtailing military pay. The Bush administration instituted a dramatic reversal, pumping up military expenditures and payrolls, and Hampton Roads prospered.
As James V. Koch, former Old Dominion University president, writes in his 2008 State of the Region report, “DoD spending is responsible for more than 70 percent of the economic growth of Hampton Roads since the start of the new millennium and perhaps as much as 45 percent of our gross regional product. … The most important component of defense spending is military compensation, which accounts for 56 percent of spending in the region.”
Koch does not speculate on what a Barack Obama administration might mean for Hampton Roads. But I will. Unlike Clinton, who faced no major perceived military threats in the 1990s and felt safe drawing down the military, Obama has promised to contiue fighting the war on radical Islam by escalaating the American presence in Afghanistan. There won’t be a “peace dividend” for him to spend. Still, he will likely look for ways to shave military spending — and that may impact the Navy, which is a less-than-critical player in the anti-insurgency wars.
What can the inhabitants of Hampton Roads reasonably look forward to? Lower pay raises, for starters. Since 2002, compensation of military personnel has increased 63 percent, according to Koch. Even McCain would be unlikely to replicate such an increase. The prospect of Obama doing so is just about nil. Koch also raises the possibility of the loss of an aircraft carrier, which, along with accompanying task force and base support, could take $800 million a year out of the regional economy.
One could reasonably argue that an Obama presidency would be better for the United States economy as a whole (I would not share that sentiment, but I concede that it could be reasonably argued). But that logic does not extend to Hampton Roads. There is every reason to fear that the region will turn from an outstanding performer of the 2000s decade into an economic laggard. The non-military presence there just isn’t dynamic enough to make up the difference.