Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Back to the Drawing Boards on U.S. 460

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

A new environmental impact study (EIS) concludes that it will cost $1.8 billion — $400 million more than estimated by the McDonnell administration — to rebuild U.S. 460 between Petersburg and Suffolk as a tolled, high-speed expressway. Upgrading the highway probably will have to be centered on the existing corridor, Transportation Secretary Aubrey Layne said yesterday.

The heart of the problem: A 2008 environmental study estimated that the route favored by the McDonnell administration would disturb 200 acres of wetlands. Subsequent investigations pushed that number to 583 acres last year. The latest study pushes the number to 613 acres, according to the Times-Dispatch.

The low-impact alternative along the existing route would  disrupt the least amount of wetlands, make the existing route safer and, at a cost of $974 million, be the least expensive to build. On the other hand, upgrading the existing route  would displace more businesses and provide the least amount of “induced growth.” Also, it would provide the least benefit in terms of travel time saved, potentially making it less valuable as a highway outlet for ports in Norfolk and Portsmouth.

Furthermore, backing out of the deal structure negotiated by the McDonnell administration creates major legal headaches for the McAuliffe administration. It is not known how much of the $300 million paid so far to U.S. Mobility Partners, the design-contractor for the project, can be recouped. Removal of the tolls also could breach the state’s warranty with owners of toll-backed bonds issued to help pay for the project.

Bacon’s bottom line: It amazes me that former Governor Bob McDonnell may go to jail for the misdeeds of Giftgate, which didn’t cost the taxpayers a single dime yet fundamental answers have yet to be answered about who was responsible for the U.S. 460 fiasco, the real scandal of his administration.

A detailed McAuliffe administration review of documents blamed a recklessly aggressive implementation of the U.S. 460 project for ignoring the deal-killer wetlands issue but never addressed who in the McDonnell administration made key decisions along the way. McDonnell? Transportation Secretary Sean Connaughton? Senior executives with the Virginia Department of Transportation? VDOT staff? As much as Layne deserves credit for laying out many of the facts to the public, he seemed satisfied with a conclusion that “mistakes were made.” The Virginia press corps, which crucified McDonnell for accepting gifts from nutraceutical entrepreneur Jonnie Williams and doing nothing in exchange, seems supinely content with that explanation.

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21 responses to “Back to the Drawing Boards on U.S. 460”

  1. NewVirginia Avatar
    NewVirginia

    Apologies to the counties involved who seem to want the road, but I still don’t see the point of this massive expense. I drive 460 frequently to go visit family in southeast VA and have never seen anything approaching congestion on it. I suppose the argument is over economic development, but frankly I think the idea that very marginal improvements in highway drive times cause massive economic development has been pretty thoroughly debunked by now.

  2. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    and yet the very same VDOT does this:

    Adaptive Traffic Control Systems Real-Time Traffic Signal Technology US 29, Albemarle County Project Update

    http://www.virginiadot.org/projects/resources/Culpeper/Route_29_Adaptive_Signal_Control/August_2014_BOS-InSync_Update.pdf

    this is a major deal.. with big payoffs for minimal investment:

    “DOT installed the system on U.S. 250 on Pantops in the fall of 2011 as part of a statewide pilot program to test the technology.

    “The U.S. 250 corridor in Albemarle County/city of Charlottesville indicates the most dramatic improvements of those in the adaptive signal statewide pilot study,” said Michael Clements, a signal systems program manager with VDOT.

    Travel times were reduced by as much as four and a half minutes during peak periods, Clements added.”

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Here’s the difference between U.S. 460 and the Pantops traffic signal project: U.S. 460 was politically driven, Pantops was not.

      1. larryg Avatar
        larryg

        well.. I hear that there may have been some “politics” involved in Rt 29 in Charlottesville …also!

        😉

        and don’t forget also – the state is now using a prioritization scheme… but alas would let economic development be a criteria. An opportunity – by the way for those who want to see a real cost-benefit analysis done.

        I wonder how hard it might be to construct a “farebox” approach to new roads?

        you’d look at total traffic counts – multiplied by the miles and the gas tax revenues per mile per car… add it all up… and compare to the cost of the project… subtract out the appropriate amount that the gas tax pays for operation and maintenance (or include it but break it out from construction costs.

        I would imagine that investors for a prospective toll road would go through a similar calculation to how long it would take to pay off the debt used to build the road.

      2. Cville Resident Avatar
        Cville Resident

        I’m interested in your thoughts on this:

        As larryg mentions…as VDOT starts to implement a new prioritization plan, somehow “economic development” gets slipped in.

        What do you think of this? Is there any objective way to have this as a criteria? Or is this a sneaky way of still allowing “politics” into the equation?

        I want to believe that VDOT is trying to do a better job. But this “economic development” criterion smells like, “Legislator X wants to get a road in a place we’d never prioritize money. Legislator X is now saying Y business will move unless ‘transportation improves.’”

        I drive a lot of roads in Virginia on a regular basis. Outside of 81 (which is truly atrocious), it’s hard for me to say that any project in western Virginia should get anything more than basic maintenance money in the next 10 years. The Urban Crescent’s transportation needs are so, so, so much greater than anything we need in western VA. Politicians will never say it, but that’s the truth!

        As to Pantops….it’s been a rousing success.

        1. James A. Bacon Avatar
          James A. Bacon

          Yeah, I agree that “economic development” is a backdoor way for politics to be inserted into road-funding priorities. If there is market demand for a road, those who anticipate benefiting from it should foot the bill through tolls. Otherwise, it’s an excuse for crap-shoot initiatives like Dulles air freight or U.S. 460.

          1. larryg Avatar
            larryg

            how do folks “see” the Rt 29 through Charlottesville issue?

            was the bypass driven by economic development or congestion relief?

            was the adopted plan to use access management on the original footprint US 29 a better solution than the bypass?

            will that plan “pay for itself”?

  3. Acbar Avatar
    Acbar

    Jim, don’t let up on your “bottom line.” There’s a dark, ugly answer buried in that Blackwater Swamp that needs exposure to daylight.

  4. NoVaShenandoah Avatar
    NoVaShenandoah

    Not to be too subtle about it, but where is the outcry by the Republicans & Conservatives about this waste of money? I thought they were very concerned about it. I also thought that they are the responsible ones and capable ones.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      re: the “outcry” .. small potatoes for a Gov now disgraced… don’t be messing with dead dogs.. and all that rot.

      before his fall from grace – Conservatives did not seem to give a rat’s behind about US 460 – but they were irate and up in arms about the Gov successfully pushing through the largest tax increase in the history of the state…and for fuels…

      and there is irony – the gas tax is underperforming to the tune of a billion dollars per year and projects are going to be cut or delayed across the State

      and in their infinite wisdom – the Gov and the GOP did not institute the tax so it could be changed unless the GA voted to do it – so unless they go back and increase the percentage (now 3.5%) – VDOT is going to continue to lose a billion dollars a year (or more if gas prices stay low) – which will, if not “fixed”, at some point – result in about a third or fourth of the projects cut.

      so now the Va GA – both houses – run by the GOP is going to have to vote to raise taxes…

  5. NoVaShenandoah Avatar
    NoVaShenandoah

    larryg, which is another way to say that they are incompetent, among other things.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      well.. competent enough to win both houses of the legislature and shut down MedicAid expansion … and implement across the board cuts to higher Ed and state agencies as a result of our revenues shortfalls…

      I think they are plenty competent when they need to be – but they have become so ideological that they become irresponsible in their actions – like turning down 30 billion and thousands of jobs because they want to make a political statement.. they never have a problem taking the other money… just this money – which is money Virginians have paid in taxes that the GOP is sending to other states.

      1. NoVaShenandoah Avatar
        NoVaShenandoah

        It’s a matter of definition. My concern is whether they govern effectively. On that basis, they are incompetent.

        Their sole concern is apparently to be elected. That does make them competent, but speaks poorly of those who vote for them.

  6. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    Jim,
    You are wrong about 460 and the media. The RTD has done several deeply reported stories about it, so has the Pilot, so has the Post so has Virginia Business.

    You and I have both written about this out the wazoo.

    In terms of overall wonky impact, yes 460 is a big story. But McDOnnell’s is much bigger. It attracted worldwide attention. Ask me. I covered it for Bloomberg News.

    While worthy, 460 would not.

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      The T-D and VP did write about U.S. 460 but they never got to the bottom of it. We still don’t know who was responsible for the fiasco. We can make some good guesses but we don’t know… and nobody seems to care. Hey, it’s only $250 million.

  7. billsblots Avatar
    billsblots

    “they never got to the bottom of it. We still don’t know who was responsible for the fiasco.”
    It is entirely possible a fair part of that blame of fact-hiding may be currently residing on the third floor of the VDOT HQs building. The lack of push by “the media”, should be disconcerting.

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Senior McDonnell administration officials claimed executive privilege for working papers, or some such, which meant that the auditors and investigators did not have access to critical information. So, we can’t blame the auditors and investigators. But that’s no excuse for the press dropping the ball. Maybe they just figure the McDonnell administration is history, so who cares?

      But senior VDOT officials are still around. Charlie Kilpatrick was elevated to Virginia Highway Commissioner. I have no reason to believe that he was driving the decisions — for all I know, he advised against them. But the fact is, we don’t know. Sean Connaughton is running the Virginia Hospital Association. Who know if he has ambitions to run again for higher office.

    2. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      institutionally – VDOT”s relationship with the Army Corp on wetlands has been less than wonderful and it has spanned Governorships.

      Not sure what we get by going back.. other than the possible scapegoating of career workers which pretty much operate per higher up VDOT folks.

      nothing would be resolved by the de-facto witch-hunt – and I’m someone who has a dim view of how VDOT has traditionally delt with the Army Corp.

      Roads are inherently political and road-building agencies typically see historic , natural and cultural resources as modern-day obstacles to things that would have been done without question in the past.

      It I-64 were to be proposed today -it is highly likely it would run into the same issues as US 460 has.

      I think that is pretty close to the truth.

      VDOT tried to end-run the Army Corp – I’m not convinced that their actions would have been any different under another GOvernor than McDonnell..

      and I’m not at all convinced why this look-back has any real purpose.

      what does it accomplish?

  8. salz Avatar
    salz

    What happened was that Allen and Overy was the Commonwealth’s legal advisors in the 460 negotiations and Allen and Overy very proudly proclaim that they get great results for investors. Indeed, they advertise that twice Infrastructure Investor magazine has named them law firm of the year.

    Allen and Overy probably got a bonus, furthermore, when the contract was concluded. With this obvious conflict of interest, there was absolutely no one in 460 negotiations looking out for taxpayers.

    We desperately need to “look back,” Larryg. If the media had “looked back” earlier in McDonnell’s 22 “public private partnership” projects, the scamming of taxpayers wouldn’t have gotten to the level of 460. When it’s this egregious (sp!) and still the mainstream media don’t do their jobs, its difficult to imagine our nation has much hope.

    Here is a question: If you own one P3 toll project already in bankruptcy and your other P3 is generating only one-fifth of its projected revenue, do you go out, seek and win, the contract for a third P3 toll road in the same state?

    See TransUrban. See Pocahontas Parkway. See Capital Beltway Express. See 95 Toll Lanes.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      I’m just not sure how much of this had anything to do with a specific gov.

      My impression of the Pocahontas was that it started out as a VDOT toll road, ended up in trouble and then Transurban – for reasons not fathomable – took the known-to-be-bad toll road from VDOT knowing it was a financial loser.

      The 495 beltway lanes do not belong to VDOT. If they go down – taxpayers will not be hurt and the state will take back the road and decide what to do with it which may or may not stay as a HOT Lane project. The private entity owns the risk.

      at this point – HOT lanes are a success because.. they do offer people an alternative to main line congestion – and people do have a real choice. The complaints I’ve heard is that people don’t like the idea of a private company operating it … so we’ll see.

      The I-95 HOT lanes start in early 2015 and my view is that they will be a win-win no matter what happens because traffic has options.. they did not have before. They have a mainline, a toll lane or a free toll lane if they carpool.

      I think that P3 HOT Lanes are going to be a successful model … but we’ll see.

      what worries me more about P3 is toll projects that require additional state money because they are not feasible as stand alone tolls.

      this is where Maryland went with the ICC – and it’s a money loser – that will be subsidized by the other cash-cow toll roads that Md has.

      so.. a lot of this – toll stuff – is proceeding in several states, Md, Fla, Texas. California and Illinois.. so it’s not really unique to Va.

      I just think some toll roads are necessary and will be successful -no matter what happens to P3.. and that all of this was ongoing before McDonnell came into office – and it continued under him – but I do not think he created the issue on his watch.. it just got exposed as to risk… so that’s why I think looking back does not solve much.. McDonnell is gone – he more or less inherited at least SOME of the P3 issues that were, in fact, created by the Gen Assembly.. and would probably occur under any Gov – as long as VDOT has the latitude it does to pursue P3…

      but tolls are here to stay – no matter who is Gov and no matter who runs VDOT… the handwriting is on the wall.. If you want a tunnel in Hampton, it’s going to have tolls..and the are likely to be dynamic tolls.

      the problem with 460 is that there is no money even for the short version.

  9. salz Avatar
    salz

    What happened was that Allen and Overy was the Commonwealth’s legal advisors in the 460 negotiations and Allen and Overy very proudly proclaim that they get great results for investors. Indeed, they advertise that twice Infrastructure Investor magazine has named them law firm of the year.

    Allen and Overy probably got a bonus, furthermore, when the contract was concluded. With this obvious conflict of interest, there was absolutely no one in 460 negotiations looking out for taxpayers.

    We desperately need to “look back,” Larryg. If the media had “looked back” earlier in McDonnell’s 22 “public private partnership” projects, the scamming of taxpayers wouldn’t have gotten to the level of 460. When it’s this egregious (sp!) and still the mainstream media don’t do their jobs, its difficult to imagine our nation has much hope.

    Here is a question: If you own one P3 toll project already in bankruptcy and your other P3 is generating only one-fifth of its projected revenue, do you go out, seek and win the contract for a third P3 toll road in the same state?

    See TransUrban. See Pocahontas Parkway. See Capital Beltway Express. See 95 Toll Lanes.

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