Bacon's Rebellion

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Back to Normal: Old Guys First

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James A. Bacon
in

Number of cases by symptom onset. Source: Virginia Department of Health

The COVID-19 epidemic ain’t over, and new variants of the virus may be super contagious, but most of my old-guy friends have been double-vaccinated and, by Jove, we’re busting out of the house. Tonight I’m getting together with some buddies, all of whom have been double-vaccinated like myself, and we’re going to eat indoors! Like we did in the old days!

Life is still far from normal. People are getting stressed about the new virus variants, and the number of new cases is inching back up. Our neighborhood gym is still closed, which is a huge bummer because I’m yearning to get back in shape. I wear a mask at the grocery store and other places of trade, not because I think I need one but to avoid freaking other people out. My wife and I are still cautious interacting with younger people who may or may not have been vaccinated. But Virginia is inching back towards normality, and the old guys are leading the way!

Virginia COVID-19 hospitalizations
Virginia COVID deaths
Number of testing encounters, and moving seven-day average of percent positive tests

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7 responses to “Back to Normal: Old Guys First”

  1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    Lucky! I am going to be last. I know it. Stuck with the last name of Whitehead I was always last in everything. Except graduation. Bob Zing got the last diploma.

  2. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    The open question remains … what constitutes the conditions that allow a return to normal? Isn’t this something that Wise King Ralph should be telling his subjects? After all, he is a medical doctor. Of course, he’s also a purveyor of fear porn and obviously likes the role of dictator.

    Here’s a thought – when the mortality rate from COVID, over a 30 day period, is the same as the average mortality rate for the seasonal flu and pneumonia we declare the emergency to be over. That would be 15.2 per 100,000 people during the flu season. Or about 5 per month per 100,000 assuming a 3 month flu season or 400 per month in Virginia.

    As of April 5, Virginia’s 7 day average is 20 deaths per day. That’s about 600 per month. When we reach 400, we declare victory and move on.

    Somebody ask Dr Ralph if that sounds about right.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

      The “excess death” tracking at CDC’s website is falling, despite the fear porn (NBC is going to town with a double mutant! Sounds like a SciFi movie….) That’s the sign of normalcy I’m watching. Virginia’s 7-day average death count was below 7 as of March 30, as I see it, but I’m not trusting that…slow reporting.

      Odds are there will never be zero deaths from this going forward, and of course it rages unchecked in many places around the world. More and more data says the shots work against the variants and prevent us from being unwitting carriers. But the power gained over us
      won’t be easily surrendered.

  3. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    So the “wise King” thing is mostly blather as most states, including Maryland have some similar approach and things like Cruise ships, sports, even GOP primaries are still affected and wouldn’t it be a real thing is the GOP in Virginia decided to hold a regular primary in defiance of “Wise King”?

    😉

    So, what lessons have we learned from this pandemic such that we’d make changes for the next one so we do it “better”?

    ha ha.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      So, when does it end Larry? When Northam decrees that it shall end? I spent a few days last week in Florida playing golf. It’s pretty much ended down there Larry. Nobody wearing masks at the club where I played. Not outside, not inside. Not the employees, not the golfers, nobody.

      The biggest lesson to learn hasn’t been learned yet. That lesson is that repeated, indiscriminate spending in the trillions has major risks. Not even the most shameless advocate of Modern Monetary Theory says a country can borrow indefinitely. They simply said, before the latest run oof the printing presses, that we could borrow more. Where is the ceiling? Nobody knows. But between Slow Joe’s stimulus, infrastructure binge, and perhaps yet another stimulus … I think we’ll find out.

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Can we start, then, where it began with reversing the Trump tax giveaway to the rich which was funded on the deficit? What say your country club friends?

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Can we start, then, where it began with reversing the Trump tax giveaway to the rich which was funded on the deficit? What say your country club friends?

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