Author: James A. Bacon
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Strategies for Growing the Rural Population
In a recent article, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond highlighted strategies for bolstering the population of rural counties in the Fifth Federal Reserve District. Some ideas will prove familiar to readers of Bacon’s Rebellion, such as identifying amenities that will attract retirees and second-home buyers. But the article makes some suggestions we haven’t heard…
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What Northam’s “Key Measures” Do and Don’t Tell Him
by James A. Bacon Later today Governor Ralph Northam will issue his mask-wearing mandate for Virginians. I’ll reserve comment about the details of the plan for when I see them. In the meantime, it is worth considering what data he might draw upon to justify his measures. The Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard highlights…
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Staunton’s Election Lessons
by Chris Saxman Virginia’s most accurate statewide election locality — Staunton — just swept off City Council three Democratic incumbents in favor of three Republicans. Democrats go from a 6-to-1 majority to a 3-to-4 minority. This made headlines around the Commonwealth and political news sites. “Virginia is going Red this fall!” “Will Trump win in…
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Virginia’s Lockdown Violates Natural Law
by Deborah Hommer My favorite Greek tragedy play is Sophocles’ “Antigone.” The protagonist risks her life with civil disobedience by burying the body of her brother Polyneices according to the religious dictates (natural/higher law) of her God in defiance of King Creon’s edict (man-made or positive law). When confronted with the choice of whether to…
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COVID-19 Counter-Factuals and Trade-Offs
by James A. Bacon A recent Columbia University study generated headlines after concluding that 55% of deaths reported as of May 3 could have been avoided if stricter social-distancing controls had been implemented nationally just one week earlier. Responding to that story, President Trump created a mini-furor by engaging in his usual ad hominem attacks.…
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Two Faces of the Face-Mask Mandate
by Sidney Bostian Governor Ralph Northam will announce tomorrow the details of a statewide mandate to wear masks in public spaces and businesses. “We are working through the policy. Obviously it’s an equity issue,” Northam said at his Friday news conference, adding that all Virginia residents would need access to face coverings and that he…
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Ralph Northam’s Sovereign Immunity
by Kerry Dougherty Just as we were eagerly looking forward to a glorious Memorial Day weekend in Virginia Beach, Gov. Ralph Northam dropped a stink bomb. At his Friday press conference, in his cloying, paternalistic way, Northam said he had some homework for the commonwealth. He wanted everyone to get a mask. Details to come…
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The Emperor’s New Clothes — or the COVID That Didn’t Happen
by Carol J. Bova The May 22 UVA COVID-19 Model weekly report says the virus transmission rate dropped below 1.0 in the past week. It had averaged 2.2 prior to March 15. Here’s the explanation of what that means: Researchers use the transmission rate of a disease, often referred to as R-naught (R0), to measure…
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The Epidemic is Receding. Why Do We Need a Mask Mandate Now?
by James A. Bacon As Governor Ralph Northam ponders the details of a statewide order mandating Virginians to wear face masks, he might do well to consider the latest COVID-19 data in his deliberations. A record number of test results, 11,609, were incorporated into the Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 database yesterday and published on…
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The Nursing Home Industry Responds
Virginia’s long-term care facilities have come under close scrutiny during the COVID-19 epidemic, understandably so, considering that roughly 60% of all COVID-19 deaths in Virginia have afflicted patients living in long-term care facilities. The nursing home industry has remained remarkably quiet throughout the crisis. But yesterday I received a communication from Amy Hewett, vice president…
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Latest Data Supports Continued Reversal of Shutdown
by James A. Bacon We’re a week into Phase 1 of relaxing the COVID-19 lockdown, and there is no sign of an acceleration of the virus. To the contrary, the virus seems to be receding. It may be too soon to reach definitive conclusions — there is a one- to two-week lag between an infection,…
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Wise King Ralph Rules: Less Choice for the Self-Employed
by James A. Bacon According to Governor Ralph Northam, the way to ensure access to quality, affordable medical insurance for Virginians is to reject bills that would… expand access to health insurance for Virginians. Yesterday Northam vetoed two bills passed with broad bipartisan support that would have allowed self-employed people to buy insurance through professional…
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COVID-19 Update
Highlights from the Virginia Department of Health and Virginia Hospital and Healthcare COVID-19 databases based on yesterday’s reporting: Mortality statistics COVID-19 deaths: 37 Nursing home deaths: 13 Percentage of deaths occurring long-term care settings: 35% Testing data Tests administered: 6,553 % positive: 14.7% COVID-19 Hospitalization data New hospitalizations: 52 New discharges: 185 Total COVID-19 patients…
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COVID-19 a Danger to Individuals but Not an Existential Threat to Society
We’ve published variations of this graph in the past, but the perspective never grows old. This data, provided by John Butcher of Cranky’s Blog fame, shows how the COVID-19 virus stacks up against other causes of death in Virginia (using 2017 data, the most recent available). The number is almost as high as it was…
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COVID Confusion
by Kerry Dougherty Looks like it may be safe to lose the grocery gloves. We can take it easy with the Clorox wipes, too. No longer must we let Amazon packages marinate on the porch for days. Or scrub milk cartons with bleach in case some super-spreader touched it in the supermarket refrigerator case and…