F
rom time to time, one must admit he is wrong — or maybe not quite right.
I’ve been critical of Jim Bacon for his jeremiads against debt and deficit spending, but last night I had a moment of epiphany that shows that he might be on target here.
By some chance, I was invited to a talk and reception up in DC at a restored mansion just off 16th Street for Prof. Jim Thurber of American University, someone I have talked to for magazine stories over the years, A number of foreign diplomats gathered to hear Thurber, who is probably the country’s leading academic expert on lobbying Congress and federal agencies.
Thurber says that he is indeed worried about the debt and that at some point it could become 100 percent of GDP. The Congressional Budget Office says that the debt as percentage of GDP was 33 percent in 2001 but will be about 54 percent this year and could be 68 percent by 2019.
One reason, Thurber notes, is the troubled history of PAYGO, which was instituted in 1990 during the George H.W. Bush Administration which compels any new spending not be added to the federal deficit. Bill Clinton adhered to PAYGO and the U.S. budget deficit shrank to a surplus. The PAYGO expired in 2002 and was not renewed in part because Bush II was anxious to get to his unneeded and irresponsible tax cuts.
Congress has screwed around with PAYGO ever since. The results have been catastrophic: a $236.2 billion budget surplus in 2000 quickly grew to a deficit of $377.6 billion after 2003 and keeps growing.
Prof. Thurber says the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are “immoral” in the sense that the U.S. is not paying for them, really. It is borrowing for them. Of course, in my view, this is a Bush policy that the right wing can’t stick on Obama despite all the outcry over his stimulus package and health care bill.
A few other nuggets from Prof. Thurber:
- Obama has been a big success in his ability to focus, speak publicly, administer staff and turnaround America’s image overseas which had been badly damaged by Bush.
- He made a big mistake early on by simply turning over the Congress such major legislation as “cap and trade” to reduce greenhouse gases. In the hands of Rep. Henry Waxman and lobbyists, the result has been a dog’s breakfast.
- Congress has been so polarized that there is really no “middle” any more.
- Obama mishandled the health care reform initiative and is paying the price. One wonders why Senate Finance, instead of more appropriate health committees, are leading the charge.
- Efforts to reform financial services and police practices such as off the books derivatives trading that almost brought the money system to its knees are getting the “slow dance” by lobbyists. The strategy is to slow all reform efforts down so only a few things really get passed.
- Lobbyists are having a field day.
Anyway, it was a fun evening. And Bacon should take a bow.
Peter Galuszka