by James A. Bacon
One of the key questions in forecasting future trends in urban development is a demographic one: How different are the Millennials from previous generations? Sure, young people are flocking to urban centers, they’re driving less and they’re riding their bicycles more than Boomers and Generation Xers did at the same age. Here’s the million-dollar question: What will happen when they settle down, get married and have kids? Will they pack up and move to the burbs like previous generations?
In the “smart growth” view, Millennials are a different breed. While Boomers equated the automobile with freedom and mobility, Millennials are defined by the smart phone. The Millennial migration to urban centers, the preference for mixed-use development and mass transit, and the decline in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) are structural shifts embedded in the generational zeitgeist that must be recognized in our long-term planning for zoning and transportation. Skeptics view the downturn in VMT as a short-term blip caused by the large size of the Millennial generation and economic hardship associated with the Great Recession and slow economic recovery. As Millennials age and the economy recovers, the skeptics say, America will return to the pattern of low-density, auto-centric growth and development that prevailed in the post-World War II era.
Against the backdrop of that debate, it is informative to read an op-ed written by my old boss, John W. Martin, president of the Southeastern Institute of Research, home of the Boomer Project. John comes to conclusions similar to those in the Smart Growth camp, but he reaches them by very different means — from marketing surveys used to tease out differences between the generations.
Martin predicts continued urban revival. He writes:
The real story is what’s happening with the rebirth of the urban core and other high-density activity centers. Millennials and boomers are moving in, but with different motivations. Millennials, wired with a collective sense of self and a drive to change the world, crave the social connectedness and sustainable lifestyles that come with the high density of urban areas. … A greater number of people in more condensed spaces will help build a greater sense of community.
Defined by the smart phone revolution, Millennials are wired differently from Boomers and Gen-Xers, Martin says.
A more recent sign pointing to a greater sense of community is the emergence of the sharing economy. Ushered in by social media, millennials’ hyper-connected shared sense of self, and economic necessity, the sharing economy is about sharing, not owning. Some examples: bike sharing, car sharing and house sharing. There’s even sugar sharing (www.sharesomesugar.com), which helps you find someone in your neighborhood who is willing to share something you need. Sharing is the DNA of community and more sharing is in everyone’s future.
Rather than retreating to the privacy of their cul-de-sac homes and turning their backs on public life, Millennials are doing the opposite:
Community-building (diversity, inclusiveness, tolerance and purposefulness) and place-making activities (public spaces, festivals, public art, transportation options, a unified brand, etc.) are fueling community pride. We see this in our research studies among young millennials in cities like Austin, Denver, Atlanta and Richmond. Most report that their cities are uniquely authentic. Moreover, they don’t want to live any place else … they want to be part of their community.
Assuredly, as the Millennials age and settle down, some will move back to the burbs. But the generational migration will be far less pronounced than in the past. The shift in preferences for urban life, with its richer array of transportation options, a deeper sharing economy and emphasis on community and place-making will drive American communities, including those in Virginia, to a more smart-growth future.
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