Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is expected to use his “state of the commonwealth speech” tonight to press for a financial solution to Virginia’s transportation woes. As Michael Hardy and Tyler Whitley explain the stakes in an article today:
The governor will pledge bipartisan cooperation, but he will challenge the lawmakers not to leave a second year in a row without addressing transportation funding,” said one administration source.
However muted the rhetoric, Democrat Kaine’s speech will sound the likely battle cry for this November’s elections for all 140 legislative seats.
By turning the transportation issue into an election rallying cry, Kaine has created an interesting — and under-reported — dynamic within the Republican Party. The first inkling I had popped up in correspondence with a General Assembly insider, who was communicating off the record, to the effect that the Senate “has to take any real deal” offered by the House of Delegates, “and they know it.”
How was that, I asked. Several soft-on-taxes Republican Senators will lose their primaries to aggressively low-tax challengers, my source responded. By contrast, for all the predictions that Democrats stand to make significant gains in the general elections, conservative Republicans in the House aren’t worried. None of them are facing primary challenges.
I don’t follow electoral politics. For details, consult Not Larry Sabato, the lead blogging source on Virginia election analysis. For purposes of this analysis, I am working off a summary provided by Virginia Free (Foundation for Research and Economic Education). Sens. Walter Stosch, R-Henrico, and Russell H. Potts, R-Winchester, face challenges from credible candidates. Sen. Emmett W. Hanger, R-Mount Solon, will be opposed by a potentially attractive but largely unknown conservative independent. By contrast, conservatives in the House are all running unopposed in their primaries. Their test will come in the general elections with the Democrats.
The races of interest:
- Walter Stosch – Joe Blackburn. Stosch enjoys enormous advantages of name recognition, incumbency and a formidable warchest, but Blackburn has a strong base of support within the district. As Virginia Free notes: “Blackburn, a Richmond attorney, had a very successful and well-attended campaign kickoff late in 2006. Meanwhile, the Henrico County GOP elected Blackburn’s choice for local chairman, Sheriff Mike Wade, essentially delivering control of the local party apparatus to Blackburn. Stosch backed the opposition, losing in his home base of Henrico County, which comprises nearly the entire senate district. Blackburn has enlisted key advisors to former Governor Jim Gilmore to assist his effort, and he claims the endorsement of VCAP, the Virginia Conservative Action PAC.”
- Russell Potts — Jill Holtzman Vogel — Mark Tate. The only thing that Russ Potts has going for him is that so many Republicans dislike him that two of them are running for his seat, thus splitting potential opposition. Tate came within 106 votes of unseating Potts in a 2003 primary — back when Potts still claimed to oppose taxes. After running as a pro-tax independent in the 2005 gubernatorial race, he has shredded any credibility with the party base. Potts has not declared whether he will run again. If he declines, he will leave the field to Tate and Vogel, both conservatives.
- Emmett Hanger – Arin Sime. Hanger enjoys clear advantages of name recognition and incumbency. His opponent, Arin Sime, describes himself as a small government conservative: “pro-life, pro-gun, pro-school choice, pro-farmer, pro-property rights, pro-small business, anti-eminent domain abuse and anti-tax hikes.” A 1997 UVa grad, he owns a software development consulting firm. Sounds like a long shot to me. In a general election, Hanger would win the Democrats’ votes, enough to tilt the election in his favor in even most conservative of districts.
It’s still relatively early in the game, and other primary opposition may surface. I would be amazed if someone did not run against Sen. John H. Chichester, R-Northumberland, who promised four years ago to oppose taxes only to turn around soon after the election and propose a tax increase so massive that it dwarfed even the hikes favored by then-Gov. Mark R. Warner. Chichester has immeasurably more gravitas than Potts and is probably unbeatable — he won the primary handily in 2003 — but his duplicity angered many rank-and-file Republicans. He’s sure to inspire at least a kamikazi run against him.
Bottom line: Kaine had better watch out. Conservative Republicans aren’t buying the mantra that general taxes must be raised to solve Virginia’s transportation problems. The biggest casualties of making transportation the big election issue of 2007 may be Kaine’s Republican fellow travelers in the state Senate. As that awareness solidifies into conventional wisdom, who knows what the Senators might do to buff their conservative, anti-tax credentials in this session?