Another Social-Justice Narrative Circles Down the Drain

by James A. Bacon

Now that Democrats have de-confirmed Virginia’s state health commissioner, Colin Greene, they have effectively set a new qualification for the office: it is no longer permissible to express skepticism that “systemic racism” is, in the words of Sen. Jennifer McClellan, D-Richmond, “a public health crisis.”

Ironically, only a few days after senate Democrats sent Greene packing, Old Dominion University has published a graph in its 2022 State of the Commonwealth report that dismembers any idea of systemic racism playing a role in the biggest public health crisis of our generation — the COVID pandemic.  The graph above, taken from the study, compares the percentage of COVID-related deaths for each race to its percentage of Virginia’s population.

African Americans accounted for 23% of COVID deaths through October 22 compared to only 19.2% of the state’s population — a four-percentage point gap.

But it turns out that Whites accounted for 68.1% of COVID-related deaths compared to 60.8% of the population — an eight-percentage point gap. Is that evidence of systemic anti-White racism?

Wait, there’s more: Hispanics, also alleged to be an oppressed “people of color,” accounted for 5.1% of COVID deaths compared to their 10% of the population. And Asians, also classified as an oppressed “people of color” (although sometimes described as “white-adjacent”) accounted for 2.9% of COVID deaths in Virginia compared to their 7% of the population!

(Let me pause to state that Old Dominion University does not cite this data to make the arguments that I am making.)

The Northam administration was obsessed by racial statistics during the pandemic, fretting that Blacks and Hispanics in particular were not getting their proportionate share of masks, COVID tests and, later, their proportionate share of COVID vaccines.

It was obvious to some of us at the time that the Northamites were fixated on an extraneous factor — race — when they should have been focused on medical risk characteristics such as age, obesity, diabetes, heart disease, and weakened immune systems. Insofar as Blacks and Whites suffered disproportionately from those risk factors, they were disproportionately likely to expire from the virus, but their race had nothing to do with it.

Ironically, the Northam administration’s race-based initiatives had no discernible effect. The Governor made special efforts to ensure that Blacks and Hispanics got their share of tests and vaccinations, but the health outcomes between the two groups differed dramatically. If Northam’s actions to combat the disease had made one whit of difference, Blacks and Hispanics would have departed from the statewide norm in the same direction, not in diametrically opposite directions.

The logic of the “anti-racists” — that differential outcomes reflects racism — would obligate us to conclude that Virginia healthcare is “systemically racist” — against Whites and Blacks and in favor of Asians and Hispanics. But that would be nonsensical. That leaves us with the proposition that the healthcare system is largely color blind and that different COVID outcomes reflect variations in the risk factors found in each racial population, which in turn likely arises from socioeconomic, educational, cultural and other factors.

Unfortunately, the state health department doesn’t break down COVID metrics by socioeconomic status or educational level, much less cultural attributes, so the influence of those factors on outcomes has received almost no analysis.

Still, we can confidently say that the “anti-racist” ideology asserting “systemic racism” in healthcare receives no support from the COVID data. When there is little disproportion in the rate at which Blacks and Whites suffer COVID fatalities and when Hispanics and Asians die at much lower rates, something else is going on. Forcing square pegs into round holes cannot possibly be helpful in understanding the dynamics of the pandemic, or any other public health issue, and can lead only to mis-spent efforts.

James A. Bacon is executive director of The Jefferson Council. The views expressed here are entirely his own, not those of the Council.


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64 responses to “Another Social-Justice Narrative Circles Down the Drain”

  1. Kathleen Smith Avatar
    Kathleen Smith

    Living in a poor community, Petersburg, I had to rely on a very overworked health department for procuring the first, second, and third vaccine. I do agree that it was harder for people in poverty to acquire PPE. The health department did their best by partnering with ministers, churches, and Virginia State University. I must say, people were the biggest agent of supporting those in the community without resources. If transportation is by bus, then the health department made sure the transit system had masks to give to riders. The young people in Petersburg helped older citizens as they would their elders. Families worked it out. There were still many without, but the Petersburg Health Department did their very best!

  2. Looks like my BR article charts from March 2021 and March 2022 got it right. “Lies, Damn Lies, and Race-Obsessed Statistics”
    https://www.baconsrebellion.com/lies-damn-lies-and-race-obsessed-statistics/ and “Too Bad RTD Didn’t Read “Lies, Damn Lies and Race-Obsessed Statistics” https://www.baconsrebellion.com/too-bad-rtd-didnt-read-lies-damn-lies-and-race-obsessed-statistics/

    1. Can you provide health outcomes for things other than Covid (i.e., something that impacted huge swaths of the community due to ideology)? That would prove his point, not this.

      1. How about VDH death rates per 100,00 and vax rates, both by race and ethnicity just posted here.
        Suggest parameters for “things that might not be Covid.” Covid is what we’re discussing.

      2. How about VDH death rates per 100,00 and vax rates, both by race and ethnicity just posted here.
        Suggest parameters for “things that might not be Covid.” Covid is what we’re discussing.

        1. I’m asking for things other than Covid, like let’s say heart disease, cancer, mothers dying in labor, whatever. My guess is that those health outcomes will show disproportionately high mortality among minorities other than Asians. By contrast, Covid appears to have recently flipped to mean whites are at a higher risk of death, which would mean that Covid is an outlier, not proof that systemic racism doesn’t exist.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            yes. Exactly.

          2. You’re changing the point of the discussion. Covid was used as a “proof” of systemic racism, but now you call it an outlier. I wrote in March 2021 “that VDH should target vaccination efforts to neighborhoods with high rates of poverty where COVID-19 risk factors were most likely to be found rather than basing the sites on VDH’s flawed virus statistics of
            racial demographics.”
            https://www.baconsrebellion.com/shhh-dont-ask-covid-19-equity-analysis-is-for-governors-eyes-only/

          3. LarrytheG Avatar

            Nope.

            ” Now that Democrats have de-confirmed Virginia’s state health commissioner, Colin Greene, they have effectively set a new qualification for the office: It is no longer permissible to express skepticism that “systemic racism” is, in the words of Sen. Jennifer McClellan, D-Richmond, “a public health crisis.”

            not a word about COVID.

            JAB then does this:

            ” Ironically, only a few days after senate Democrats sent Greene packing, the Old Dominion University has published a graph in its 2022 State of the Commonwealth report that dismembers any idea of systemic racism playing a role in the biggest public health crisis of our generation — the COVID pandemic. ”

            What has been said from the get go is that there are health care disparities across the board in a number of areas.

          4. No, systemic racism existed before Covid. Covid was not the basis for arguing system racism existed; the disparate outcomes were symptomatic. And the disparate outcomes did exist, util they were changed n mid 2021 and Oct. 2022 (only slightly) with whites being most susceptible to dying from Covid. There are some good hypotheses why that’s the case, including political anti-vaxx ideology. If you’re to make the case that systemic racism is bunk in health outcomes, show it over time and relative to other health risk factors.

          5. The CDC racial/ethnic breakdown from 2/1/20 to 7/4/20 of all Virginia deaths from COVID-19 alone, together with COVID-19 and pneumonia does not support what you said. The percentages of Covid deaths were close to actual population percentages. What was striking was the number of Hispanics ages 35-64 who had died, but the total was only about 2% higher than the Hispanic population number.

            NOTE: About 20% of Covid cases did not have racial or ethnic identification then.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc1386a27d846be1749751f5c9098066b042eecf80d6f29cbb6a903c61c2a5df.png

          6. This assumes that early in the pandemic rates of infection were more or less even across ethnic groups. The Wapo numbers say that mortality rates were much higher among non-white communities based on the last 3 years of data, so I’m going to guess that they’re accurate.

  3. Death Rates per 100,000 by race and ethnicity don’t match vax stats.

    Asian/Pacific Islander 54
    Latino 102
    Native American 230
    Black 274
    White 285

  4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/10/19/covid-deaths-us-race/ here’s a good analysis. It tells a much more nuanced and balanced story than Mr. Bacon’s.

    1. But isn’t the conclusion is the same? What’s the nuance? (I changed screens and hit the paywall when I went back. Gave up on supporting the WaPo this year.)

    2. But isn’t the conclusion is the same? What’s the nuance? (I changed screens and hit the paywall when I went back. Gave up on supporting the WaPo this year.)

        1. Thank you. Wapo said they analyzed every death record in the country. CDC would seem to have to be the source. The Virginia stats from VDH and CDC for 2020, 2021, and 2022 don’t match up with the WaPo statements.

      1. No, it’s not the same because it tracks mortality rates over time. Minorities (other than Asians) had much higher mortality rates until at one point the story flipped and whites had higher mortality rates; in terms of overall numbers, minorities still died at higher rates nationally speaking. However, at one point in mid-2021, the mortality rates ticked up ever so slightly for whites, then again in Oct. 2022. There are a lot of hypotheses, but the article does not take or attempt to take a single stat at one point in time and conclude that structural racism is bunk.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          unlike JAB and you know who…

          The bigger question is WHY do they want to make this narrow argument in the first place?

          Oh.. because the VDH guy was tossed because he doubted systemic racism in health outcomes….
          ergo has to be about COVID and nothing else.

        2. The article blamed the higher White mortality rate later in the pandemic on more Whites being Republicans and vax resistant. Actually, I find that plausible. That’s because I acknowledge the role of differences in culture and belief systems as a contributor to COVID and other health outcomes.

          You on the other hand seem to believe that if the White mortality rate is higher it’s because some whites are stupid MAGA voters, but if Blacks have a higher mortality rate it’s because of racism. Culture is at play for one group, but never for the other.

          1. “[S]ome whites are stupid MAGA voters” and “Whites being Republicans and vax resistant.”What, pray tell, is the difference? Sounds like you agree with me. Anyway, I think you need to clarify what it is precisely that you’re arguing. In your blog you sound like you’re arguing that structural racism is not a factor in disparate outcomes. Or are you arguing that it never existed or has been rectified? Hard to tell. Anyway, I ask because I think you have a burden to overcome to make your case, namely that there is no structural racism or that it doesn’t contribute to the outcome. I, on the other hand, have never made the case that culture doesn’t contribute to outcomes. I have only said that structural racism is real and does contribute to the outcome. See the difference?

  5. Kathleen Smith Avatar
    Kathleen Smith

    I just completed a multi variable regression analysis on an educational hypothesis. Interesting that you said forcing square pegs in round holes is not useful. You put the round peg in the right round hole. Great point.

  6. As for the idea that White fatality rates are comparable to Black fatality rates mainly because Whites are vaccinated at a lower rate… Here’s the Virginia Department of Health data as of today:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3cd6dbd2672ca0303b471fb6b16f63119e78b2f061b92a6739c362b498a3f0e6.jpg

    The vaccination rate for Blacks and Whites is almost identical…. with the rate for Blacks slightly lower.

    Update: I see that Carol has already posted this data. Well, here it is again in chart form.

  7. Any suggestions from these opinion-mongers why the Asian and Hispanic statistics are so skewed the other way? It’s fascinating how a statistic that supports an hypothesis is “revealed truth” and one that doesn’t is “reporting bias” or mere “noise.”

    1. DJRippert Avatar

      I’ll put out a purely guesswork hypothesis. Hispanics in Virginia, on average, are younger than Whites and Blacks. Asians, by culture, are more likely to be cautious. Why do I say that about Asians? Because I’ve been to Asia and seen huge numbers of people wearing masks prior to Covid. When I asked my Asian colleagues why so many people were wearing masks, they cited health concerns not pollution.

      A good follow on analysis would be to look at Covid mortality by race AND age bracket.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        does that imply that masks “worked”?

        1. DJRippert Avatar

          It implies that Asians (in Asia, at least) thuik masks work. However, I also suspect that Asians also get vaccinated at high rates and take great pains to maintain social distance. I also suspect that, in Virginia, Asians are younger on average than Blacks or Whites.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            so masks, social distancing and vaccinations work, and even better if young?

          2. Have you been to Asia? There is no such thing as personal space and social distancing. Being in public spaces in Japan and Korea will make you feel violated. Yes, some will wear masks, but rarely properly or of the N95 variety.

          3. DJRippert Avatar

            I’ve been to Asia at least 25 times. 50 if you count Australia as Asia. I’ve ridden on the Tokyo subway many times.

            The same respect for the rules of decorum that make the packed Tokyo subway manageable apply to Asians in Virginia. If the rule calls for 6 feet of separation in Virginia then more Asians will respect that rule than Whites or Blacks. At least, that’s my “guesswork hypothesis”.

            I have no idea if the masks worn in Asia work. As I said, there were lots of people wearing masks before Covid.

            My point is that Asians tend to take every precaution more so than Whites or Blacks.

      2. Age and race would be interesting to see. VDH doesn’t offer that. But more than masks, we have to look at obesity, Vitamin D deficiency and diabetes, along with auto-immune conditions. Looking at the VDH diabetes breakdown, one factor alone might not be enough to create differences in rates, although VDH says 60% of diabetics in VA are obese. https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/diabetes/data/

        Overview of Diabetes in Virginia from the 2020 BRFSS
        United States prevalence 11.3%
        Virginia prevalence 11.1%
        White/Non-Hispanic 10.2%
        Black/Non-Hispanic 17.6%
        Hispanic 6.2%
        Other/Non-Hispanic 9.8%
        https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/diabetes/data/

        1. DJRippert Avatar

          I agree. Age and health issues are not equivalent between races in Virginia. The fact that, as you quote, Blacks have almost three times the obesity level as Hispanics makes that clear.

  8. Is it possible that white mortality rates are higher than others because so many white conservative Republicans bought into the anti-vaxx nonsense and died as a result? I also think Asians are the exact opposite–they follow public health guidelines largely b/c of their recent experience with non-Covid pandemics. I mean, you could see these stats as indications of major success for the Northam Admin. (not that this blog ever entertains an alternative hypothesis like that), despite and anti-science hyper-politicized effort to undermine public health.

    1. James McCarthy Avatar
      James McCarthy

      Indeed that’s a possibility requiring an analysis of deaths on a timeline pegged to anti-vaxx efforts. The data presented supports woke conservatism and that’s sufficient.

      1. I’m actually not even sure the data do that. Rather, it’s interpreted as an indictment on Northam’s policies. Well, the exact opposite could be true. You’d have to have more than one set of data and it would have to be over time.

        1. Welp, whaddya know. The first search result seems to back up my hypothesis about ideology driving this outlier. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/covid-death-rate-now-higher-in-whites-than-in-blacks/

    2. Try again. By percentages fewer Blacks were vaccinated.

      Eligible population with at least one dose by race and ethnicity:
      Black 66.0%
      White 67.5%
      Latino 84.5%
      Asian/Pacific Islander 93.4%
      Native American 119.1%

      Total population with at least one dose by race and ethnicity:
      Black 62.4%
      White 64.9%
      Latino 78.0%
      Asian/Pacific Islander 89.7%
      Native American 115.8%

      Not reported: 1.01 million

      https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-vaccine-summary/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/

      1. I cannot find a breakdown, but I was curious to see age demographics by race. If VA is home to more aging and elderly white citizens than black, it could explain the difference.

        1. Totally correct.

          1. Funny thing about that, VDH supplies demographics by age OR by race, ethnicity, not the combination.

  9. how_it_works Avatar
    how_it_works

    “African Americans accounted for 23% of COVID deaths through October 22 compared to only 19.2% of the state’s population — a four-percentage point gap.

    But it turns out that Whites accounted for 68.1% of COVID-related deaths compared to 60.8% of the population — an eight-percentage point gap. Is that evidence of systemic anti-White racism?”

    I’m no math major, but you can’t look at it that way.

    If you double the black population to 38.4%, and the rate of COVID deaths remained the same, the covid deaths would double to 46%, which is a 7.6 percentage point gap.

    Rate of COVID deaths would be X deaths per Y population.

    1. See the death rates per 100,000. Black rate is slightly lower than White, but Native American is close in spite of nearly universal vaccination according to VDH.

    2. The better way to look at rates would be covid deaths per 100,000 of population. Percentages cannot be directly compared.

      1. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        Exactly my point.

      2. Take a look a little further down. I posted the numbers 3 hours before you asked.

        1. I saw that. My app only shows so many comments. Been doing this for years and I don’t know why we let VDH get away with posting crap like they do.

      1. We’re discussing Virginia….not the nation.

        1. James McCarthy Avatar
          James McCarthy

          Covid was not contained by state borders. Population densities are crucial elements, e.g., DC, MD, and DE.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            You’d think! 😉

            but apparently Northam did bad stuff to make Virginia different….

      2. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        Yes, exactly.

  10. As for the idea that White fatality rates are comparable to Black fatality rates mainly because Whites are vaccinated at a lower rate… Here’s the Virginia Department of Health data as of today:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3cd6dbd2672ca0303b471fb6b16f63119e78b2f061b92a6739c362b498a3f0e6.jpg

    The vaccination rate for Blacks and Whites is almost identical…. with the rate for Blacks slightly lower.

    Update: I see that Carol has already posted this data. Well, here it is again in chart form.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      what was McClellan talking about when she said systemic racism? Was she talking about COVID?

      “Virginia state Sen. Jennifer McClellan, D-Richmond, was nearly a casualty of a public health crisis whose roots in American racism are doubted by Virginia’s health commissioner.

      Nine weeks before the due date of her daughter Samantha, “my placenta ruptured and we both almost died,” she said Wednesday.

      Given her history — and the fact that Black American women are three times more likely than their white counterparts to die of pregnancy-related causes — McClellan was triggered by a story in the Washington Post in which Virginia’s top public health official, Dr. Colin Greene, was dismissive of the documented finding that racism is corrosive to the health of African Americans.”

      https://richmond.com/opinion/columnists/williams-racism-is-a-public-health-crisis-so-is-the-virginia-health-commissioners-racism-denial/article_c2ce7d1f-a95d-54db-90b9-71961a143f78.html#tncms-source=login

      1. DJRippert Avatar

        I’m sorry … but a member of the political elite, a graduate of the University of Virginia School of Law and a former (present?) attorney at Hunton and Williams suffered a ruptured placenta because of racism?

        Which doctor decided to rupture the placenta of a wealthy, fully insured Black woman in a fit of racism?

        Do you realize how stupid that sounds?

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          She’s citing a personal anecdotal that may not fit but her point that blacks have
          substantially worse health outcomes including with pregnancy and birth is a
          documented fact.

          The question is – do Conservatives acknowledge the facts and to what do they
          attribute the disparate outcomes if they reject the claim of systemic racism as
          a cause. So, do you believe the claim that there are disparate health outcomes
          for blacks? Do you need some data?

          ” In the U.S., the CDC reported that Black women experience maternal mortality two to three times higher than that of white women. The estimated national maternal mortality rate in the United States is about 17 per 100,000 live births––but it is about 43 per 100,000 live births for Black women.”

          believe this?

          1. walter smith Avatar
            walter smith

            A meaningless stat. Why are basketball and football leagues far disproportionately black. Sounds like systemic racism to me…
            And it is merely a coincidence that Dem run cities are hellholes. And it is absolutely irrelevant citing illegitimacy as having anything to do with poor outcomes.

          2. DJRippert Avatar

            Your hypothesis, at its core, is that all unequal outcomes are based on racism.

            Now, continue your argument.

            Asians in America are wealthier, healthier (in the case of Covid, at least) and better educated that Whites.

            By your logic, the way to explain this disparity is because of systemic racism against Whites and in favor of Asians.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar

            Nope. I asking what other explanations are possible for such outcomes. How should we go
            about addressing the disparities?

  11. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    This is a total waste of time. Why do you even believe the so-called Covid death count?
    Covid, by itself, is not very deadly. Less than flu. Hospitals were incentivized to code things as Covid.
    Generally, the flu wiped out the elderly and infirm in cycles.
    Our entire government policy was wrong, and counterproductive.
    I left out inhumane.
    However, systemic racism is a myth. There are disparate results and such results have many many inputs. It is like the fictitious wage gap for women workers.
    The only systemic racism I see is from Planned Parenthood and Dem cities and Dem policies which hurt all people, but predominantly and disproportionately, blacks.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      By design Mr. Smith. Planned Parenthood is the new 3/5ths Clause and they can’t blame the founding fathers this time.

  12. Bob X from Texas Avatar
    Bob X from Texas

    Statistics are Racist !!!!!!!

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