Another Datapoint on Illegal Immigration

Hundreds of foreign-born families have pulled their children from Prince William County public schools and enrolled them in nearby Fairfax and Arlington Counties, “imposing a new financial burden on those inner suburbs in a time of lean budgets,” reports Amy Gardner with the Washington Post.

Normally, I find Gardner to be a pretty fair reporter, but her biases are showing in the way she framed this story. “The school-to-school migration within Northern Virginia started,” she explained, “just as Prince William began implementing rules to deny some services to illegal immigrants and require police to check the immigration status of crime suspects thought to be in the country illegally.”

Only lower in the story does the fact emerge that Prince William County expects to save $6 million a year thanks to a 759-student decline in the number of students enrolled in English for Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL) programs.

One of the biggest question marks in the debate over illegal immigration is how much illegals are costing citizens and legal residents in public services, most notably health care and ESOL programs. Now we have data suggesting that the ESOL costs are pretty significant. But rather than leading with a positive spin — Prince William County policies are paying off during a time of economic hardship as illegal immigrants move out — Gardner chose to lead with a negative: the cost that Prince William was imposing on its neighbors. And she did so despite evidence in her own story that the impact of the migration was so diffused that Fairfax and Arlington officials didn’t even regard the shift as a hardship.

To my mind, the real story is the hard data it provides on the immigration debate, which has been conducted so far in a largely data-free void. To her credit, Gardner did pick up on this point, noting that the evidence of migration has been largely anecdotal until now and that data from school systems provides “the most concrete evidence to date that a significant exodus of immigrants is underway — and that most of those leaving are settling in neighboring communities.” But she didn’t pursue that angle very far.

There’s another interesting angle that Gardner could have pursued in the story, based on a quote from Prince William County board chairman Corey Stewart: “Stewart called those jurisdictions ‘sanctuary’ cities and counties, saying illegal immigrants are welcome there.”

The Washington Post has focused its coverage overwhelmingly on Prince William County’s policies, which have been hostile to illegal immigrants. There has been far less coverage of the policies of Arlington and Fairfax, which have been far more accepting. Stewart makes a significant charge: that Arlington and Fairfax function as sanctuaries for illegals. That charge may or may not be grounded in the facts. It would be interesting to know what the facts are.


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  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    How, exactly, is Amy Gardner biased? The strident immigration hawks like the PWC chairman and their over-the-top boogeymonering IS the story.

    Why don’t you note that PWC is rounding up a lot of Latinos and housing them when it can’t aford to do so? ICE only gets around to checking papers every now and then. It is not the localities job to police this any more than it is their jobs to declare war.

    Next thing you’ll be telling me that Fox news and Lou Dobbs present fair and balanced coverage.

    Peter Galuszka

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    PW county is rapidly becoming the national poster boy for bad civic behavior.

  3. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    my question: why did the Latinos settle in Prince William instead of Fairfax in the first place?

    And if Fairfax has a shortage of affordable housing.. where is the RE-migration finding affordable housing if it was not there to start with and the reason why they went to Prince William originally?

    On a PER CAPITA basis.. how do the ESL costs compare between Fairfax and Prince William?

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Fairfax provides a number of public services to illegal aliens that should be restricted to legal residents only under Virginia law, but refuses to check immigration status. County law enforcement personnel are prohibited from asking the immigration status of suspects unless they are suspected of committing a felony. An estimated four thousand illegal aliens move through the Fairfax Adult Detention Center annually, and unless the Northern Virginia Gang Task Force is involved in the case, the legal status of these detainees and convicts are not checked and they are released back into the community.

    Depending on how you define “sanctuary jurisdiction”, there’s probably a clear case to be made that Fairfax County is one.

    Greg Letiecq

  5. Excellent observations in your article, Jim. Here’s some more datapoints for your readers:

    After careful review, anyone with a even a modicum of logic can come to no other conclusion: illegal immigration must be halted, illegal immigrants here now must be deported and legal immigration needs decreased from the approx. 2 million allowed in per year currently.

    Please review the following report on the FISCAL COST OF IMMIGRATION by economist Edwin Rubenstein just released this past week:
    http://www.esrresearch.com/Rubensteinreport.pdf

    A partial summary of the report:

    The impact on 15 Federal Departments surveyed was: $346 billion in fiscal related costs in FY 2007.

    Each immigrant cost taxpayers more than $9,000 per year.

    An immigrant household (2 adults, 2 children) cost taxpayers $36,000 per year.

    Legal immigrants were not separated out from illegal immigrants for the fiscal impact study, but if they had been, the fiscal cost per ILLEGAL immigrant would be even more shocking than the figures quoted above.

    The most extensive and authoritative study, prior to economist Edwin Rubenstein’s “The Fiscal Impact of Immigration” (April 2008) , is the National Research Council (NRC)’s The New Americans: Economic, Demographic and Fiscal Effects of Immigration (1997).

    The NRC staff analyzed federal, state, and local government expenditures on programs such as Medicaid, AFDC (now TANF), and SSI, as well as the cost of educating immigrants’ foreign- and native-born children.

    NRC found that the average immigrant household receives $13,326 in federal annual expenditures and pays $10,664 in federal taxes—that is, they generate a fiscal deficit of $2,682 (1996 dollars)per household.

    In 2007 dollars this is a deficit of $3,408 per immigrant household.

    With 9 million households currently headed by immigrants, more than $30 billion ($3,408 x 9 million) of the federal deficit represents money transferred from native taxpayers to immigrants.

    Our national immigration policies have to work for the United States. While improving the plight of the world’s poor is a laudable goal, the finite resources we have available to fulfill that goal would be swamped if there wasn’t some orderly and manageable system in place to limit entry into the United States to what this nation can actually support. The more illegal aliens that are permitted to subvert the immigration system, the fewer immigrants we can accommodate who might actually produce a positive benefit for our country.

    The more we become a nation of illegal immigrants, the deeper we fall into anarchy.

  6. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “After careful review, anyone with a even a modicum of logic can come to no other conclusion: illegal immigration must be halted, illegal immigrants here now must be deported and legal immigration needs decreased from the approx. 2 million allowed in per year currently.”

    Actually, I think legal immigration should be increased to make up for the aging workforcee, and to keep social security solvent. One way to do that is make it harder to be illegal and easier to be legal.

    I don’t see anything illogical in that.

    If we havea problem making room for the immigrants, we can deport the xenophobes.

    RH

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “NRC found that the average immigrant household receives $13,326 in federal annual expenditures and pays $10,664 in federal taxes—that is, they generate a fiscal deficit of $2,682 (1996 dollars)per household.”

    This is the same argument as the one that says residential housing doesn’t pay, and it is faulty for the same reason. It looks at a snapshot in time, and it does not consider the whole system.

    While the immigrants may pay less in taxes than they get in services (right now) they probably also provide more in services than they get paid. that means the rest of us can make more money on which we pay taxes (thanks to their underpaid help.).

    RH

  8. Jim Wamsley Avatar
    Jim Wamsley

    New Jersey’s top federal prosecutor told a Latino group it’s a civil offense — not a crime — for immigrants to live in the country without proper documentation, a comment that a spokesman later said was aimed at a narrowly worded question.
    U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, widely considered to be a leading GOP contender for governor next year, spoke Sunday in response to a question on illegal immigration at an open forum that grew heated. He said living in the U.S. without immigration paperwork is “an administrative matter” that federal immigration officials are supposed to address through deportation.
    http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iSktxy5itc2qTYKsSjRN7h14byFgD90B32R02

  9. Groveton Avatar

    Sanctuary is a pretty strong term. From most accomodating to least accomodating – here is my opinion of the major jurisdictions in inner NoVA:

    1. Arlington
    2. Alexandria
    3. Fairfax County
    4. Loudoun County
    5. Prince William County

    My question is one of subsidies. If the SOQ funding process redistributes funds for education – does it (eventually) redistribute money to those localities that attract illegal aliens? If true, I’d see this as an example of an unfair subsidy. Why should taxpayers in Prince William County (partially) subsidize educational costs that are incurred in Arlington because Arlington wants to be accomodating to people who are in the US illegally? I believe that Arlington has the right to make its own social decisions but does not have the right to charge off those decisions to jurisdictions whose residents do not want to financially support illegal activity.

    As for Fairfax County – I’d say more accomodating than average to illegal aliens. However, the shut down of the day labor center in Herndon and the partial crackdown on residential overcrowding has begun to make Fairfax County less attractive. If true, I think Fairfax County’s quieter efforts at change are superior to Prince William’s louder efforts at change. Fairfax County’s approach may take longer but even being perceived as racist (remember, I said perceived) is bad for business. Of course, that would assume that Fairfax County is quietly increasing “enforcement”. Like everything else in Fairfax County – this issue is played out by a stone silent BoS and electorate.

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Jim,
    When you say that Amy Gardner picked up on your point that data in the illegal immigration debate has been largely anecdotal, you seem to forget my “Seventy PerCent Solution” column of last fall. It found that in Chesterfield County, a study purporting to assess illegals’ costs on the county was ENTIRELY anecdotal and GUESSWORK. What’s more they deliberately biased their report to Hispanics only since their reporting examined only Hispanics (other foreigners need not apply).

    No offense, buddy, but it seems rather strange for you to say that you have discovered that there is no hard evidence to back up anybody’s claims on the topic, as if that’s some kind of unique Baconomics finding. Welcome to the party, Jimbo!

    Meanwhile, the immigration hawks in PWC and elsewhere are giving the Old Dominion its old national image back — that of a mean, spiteful, snobby, unsophisticated and backward looking place that is racist as hell.

    Peter Galuszka

  11. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Peter, Regarding your comment that “[Bacon] discovered that there is no hard evidence to back up anybody’s claims on the topic, as if that’s some kind of unique Baconomics finding,” that was not my intent at all.

    Rest assured that I had your story very much in mind when I wrote this post. I recall well your point that the Chesterfield authorities were winging it when it comes to estimating the number of illegal immigrants and their fiscal impact. I suspect that the same may be said of many Northern Virginia municipalities.

    Indeed, as I was writing the post, I expected that you would agree that the hard numbers from the ESOL programs were a welcome addition to the debate.

  12. One more thought, “how much illegals cost in …ESOL” careful about qualifying those service costs as illegals. I grew up in va farm land, most of the low wage labor was performed by LEGAL migrant workers, some of which had families and children in the schools. These were the majority of esol students. Their families provided a valuable work force and through taxes on those farm products, a big portion of revenue.
    Just last week there was the article about crab picking operations not being able to get their regular legal workers back in time due to changes.

  13. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    We don’t know how many children are in our schools from families who are not in the U.S. legally. However, it is not insignificant. Last fall, I spoke with a high-level official from Fairfax County Public Schools about this issue. FCPS enrollment has been stable or trending down for the last few year, but spiked this year. Enrolment is up by around 2300 students. Enrollment in ESOL classes is up proportionately. The official attributed much of the enrollment increases to families moving from PWC and Loudoun County, both of which were cracking down on illegal immigration.

    Now, perhaps, this official was mistaken or even lying to me. But probably not. People are still migrating here legally from other nations, but they were doing so in prior years as well. Yet, overall enrollment in FCPS was flat. Moreover, H1B visas have been severely limited. Where did these many extra students come from? Probably, many came to Fairfax fleeing the crackdowns in PWC and Loudoun.

    As I’ve posted in the past, the total projected cost for ESOL alone for FCPS is more than $80 million. That is not an insignificant number. Those dollars approximate the 3 cent tax increase voted by the BoS. The $80 million could also fund other programs that are not being funded to county or FCPS-requested levels. The bottom line is that illegal immigration imposes significant costs and those costs are not being born by those who benefit most from illegal immigration — employers.

    Yelling “racist” does not seem to address these questions. There are people rightly concerned about racism. But the idea that Fairfax County’s business community worries about racism is bull. They worry about keeping cheap labor, government subsidies and getting higher zoning densities. If that could be done by bringing back African slavery, there would be many Fairfax County business owners supporting that vile institution. The ethics level of many Fairfax County business executives is very low.

    Enforcement of immigration laws is critical to a functioning society. Even guest worker programs that protect the guest workers will fail unless there is strong enforcement against businesses that hire illegal workers.

    TMT

  14. Jim,

    A comment from the blackberry today must not have gone through – so I wrote a whole blog post. Have to disagree on the text conversion from “foreign born families” to illegals that seemed to start off this article.

    Whole article here:
    http://burgnews.blogspot.com/2008/04/illegal-immigration-costs-other-side.html

  15. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “There are 2.3 million people behind bars. China, with four times as many people, has 1.6 million in prison.
    In terms of population, the United States has 751 people in prison for every 100,000, while the closest competitor in this regard is Russia with 627, and Cuba with 531. The median global rate is 125. From 1925 to 1975, the U.S. rate of imprisonment was stable at 110, lower than the international average. “

    Maybe it’s time to re-think what is really illegal.

  16. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Stewart’s $6 million figure is, like so much of the data surrounding this issue, bogus. Some ESOL participants are no doubt children of illegal immigrants and some are not. Within the category of those who are children of illegal immigrants, some are US citizens and some are not. Around half of the cost of ESOL programs is paid by the Commonwealth, regardless of whether the children are in PWC or Fairfax or Goochland or Lee Counties.

    It’s fair enough to have a discussion about whether ESOL programs are beneficial in promoting assimilation and maximum learning potential or not. I don’t know enough to comment intelligently on that issue and would be glad to learn from others.

    However, it’s of no value to evaluate the merits of Prince William’s anti-immigrant policy by upticks in Fairfax ESOL enrollment.

    Illegal immigration is a manifestation of disparate economic conditions on either side of a national border (within a nation you get a lot of immigration driven by disparate economic conditions between regions, states, counties, etc.) How a nation manages the tendency of labor inputs to move toward more favorable conditions is a measurement of national economic and security policy. For a nation to tolerate local interference with that judgment is a reflection of total dysfunction at the federal level.

    NoVA Scout

  17. Groveton Avatar

    NoVA Scout:

    “Around half of the cost of ESOL programs is paid by the Commonwealth, regardless of whether the children are in PWC or Fairfax or Goochland or Lee Counties.”.

    The “Commonwealth” pays for nothing. Taxpayers pay for everything. The “Commonwealth” is a nearly medieval geographic accident of history. It is a legal concept that does not live or die, cannot vote and pays no taxes. Laying off the cost of anything to the “Commonwealth” is illusion at best.

    “For a nation to tolerate local interference with that judgment is a reflection of total dysfunction at the federal level.”.

    I agree with the dysfunction at the federal level comment. Not so sure about the tolerating local interference point. Interference in what? Federal dysfunction?

    TMT:

    “There are people rightly concerned about racism. But the idea that Fairfax County’s business community worries about racism is bull. They worry about keeping cheap labor, government subsidies and getting higher zoning densities. If that could be done by bringing back African slavery, there would be many Fairfax County business owners supporting that vile institution. The ethics level of many Fairfax County business executives is very low.”.

    “…bringing back African salvery…”. Where do you come up with this stuff? I grew up in Fairfax County. Then I went to UVA. It wasn’t the Fairfax County kids who were the racists.

    I’ve legally worked in Mexico. And I wasn’t tending bar in Cancun during summers in college. I was in Mexico City. Let me give you a social experiment to try –

    Sneak into Mexico without any passport, visa or other paperwork.

    Go to any large boulevard in Mexico City, wave an American flag and scream, “Mexico is racist” at passersby.

    Let me know what happens.

  18. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Bryan at “In the Burg” has posted a comment on his blog taking me to task for failing to distinguish between ESOL students who reside in the U.S. legally and those who reside illegally. I should not assume that all of those who moved out of Prince William County were illegal.

    That’s a legitimate point. I assumed that the vast majority of families who moved out of Prince William were illegal aliens because only illegal aliens are being targeted by PWC policies. That may be a legitimate assumption but it may not. If Hispanics feel they are being targeted as an ethnicity, then legal residents might be moving out as well.

    That’s another point worth looking in to. Are PWC’s policies creating a climate of fear and hostility that is chasing out legal residents as well.

  19. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The problem with using attendance at English as a Second Language classes is that it tends to smear anyone who came into this country who happens to speak a language other than English.

    Many views reflected on this blog and elsewhere seem to regard speaking a language other than the native tongue as some kind of social faux pas that anti-tax freaks and America-first types jump upon.

    Plenty of Americans came to this country speaking foreign countries. Some of my ancestors arrived in the 18th century speaking German followed in the next century by Gaelic-speaking Scots-Irish and Polish-speaking Austrians.

    It is especially weird that speaking Spanish is considered so alien, when, in fact, much of what is today’s U.S. was overtaken by Spain, not England. The oldest white European city in this country is not English Jamestown (as the Virginia publicists would have you believe), but Spanish St. Augustine. Go to New Orleans or up to Wisconsin and a lot of the new arrivals spoke French. Let’s not even bring up Native American tongues which are the original American ones.

    This brings up another point: why do so many people believe that England is the only touchstone? Not being of English ancestry, I have always wondered why American history books were so in love with the Brits. I figure it was because the Brits originally wrote the English-language history books and spun things their way, such as the storm destroying the armada of the “evil” Spanish. Of course the English are not without evil themselves. Just ask the Irish. I happen to know a few if you want to talk to them.

    These conflicts are framing the immigration debate today and it is so amazing that in these days of information technology and sophistication, we’re arguing about the native tongue. Isn’t that like, so yesterday?

    Peter Galuszka

  20. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Groveton – I’m not pointing fingers at anyone for being a racist. I think that term is tossed around too lightly. My point is that there are many business operators in NoVA who will support anything under any circumstances that will make them another buck, most especially on the backs of someone else.

    They’d support illegal immigration, child labor, falsifying accounting records, misrepresenting facts to get a taxpayer windfall, selling out their neighbors, etc. I suspect that some would, at least in secret, support a return of slavery if it meant a few more bucks.

    Look at the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce — first in line to increase taxes for everyone else, but fighting anything that might reduce its members’ profits. Not quite, put your money where your mouth is.

    TMT

  21. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Groveton: you missed my point about state payments (perhaps because I made it hastily). My point was that claims of fiscal gain in any one internal jurisdiction within Virginia through driving non-English speakers to other Virginia jurisdictions ought to be reduced by 50% given that the state component is paid nonetheless. If Mr. Stewart can concoct measures that drive non-English speaking children into Maryland or North Carolina, I’ll give him back the other $3 million (while still having profound moral, ethical, fiscal and economic policy reservations about the Prince William approach and regarding Stewart as a bumptious, incompetent blowhard and a profoundly damaging embarrassment to the Republican Party).

    NoVA Scout

  22. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Are PWC’s policies creating a climate of fear and hostility that is chasing out legal residents as well.”

    i asked a Salvadorean man who was helping me load my truck at Lowe’s in Manassas that very question.

    He said yes. He said he was naturalized for many years but some of his family is not, yet. He said he moved them all out of PW, because of this.

    RH

  23. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “”Are PWC’s policies creating a climate of fear and hostility that is chasing out legal residents as well.”

    ditto. same question. same answer.

    I’ve talked to legals.. who are afraid…

    are we sure we are accomplishing what we think we are?

  24. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “i asked a Salvadorean man who was helping me load my truck at Lowe’s in Manassas that very question.

    He said yes. He said he was naturalized for many years but some of his family is not, yet. He said he moved them all out of PW, because of this.”

    So basically what we have is a man from El Salvadore who was apparently granted amnesty, refugee status, or naturalization who has repaid this favor from the US by harboring, aiding, and abetting his illegal alien family or friends to live in the US illegally. What do you think all of this talk about “mixed status” families meant? It means that some illegal aliens have US born citizen children or that a number – note a number, not necessarily many or most – of legal immigrants are providing the network structure that allows the illegal osmosis to work while they wait for the next amnesty. This is news?

    Deena Flinchum

  25. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    right…

    and this is how the Republicans are going to win the State….back

    All those legal Hispanics.. plus all of those non-Hispanic immigrants who CAN vote.. ARE going to REMEMBER come election time.

    I admit.. there are important issues here but THIS WAY .. even if you don’t think it is wrong morally… is SO wrong politically that it’s like the R’s … WANT to lose NoVA even worse than before.. AND they want to expand their losses to include other areas in Va with immigrants.

    Think about how close some of the elections are.. and it will only take a slight shift of a particular demographic to change the outcome.

    I’d say.. if you are a politician and you are an R and you want to align oneself with folks who have a pretty clear anti-Hispanic agenda…

    Go for it.

    Just exactly what Virginia needs.. a complete take-over by the tax & spend types….

    what part of shooting oneself in the foot do R’s not understand?

    If you’re gonna do that.. at least aim for a body part that is more lethal.. and in the case of the R’s.. I’d call that part their butt. 🙂

  26. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Deena:

    You might be right about the man’s admittance, condition, and current activities, but it is alll speculation.

    In my conversation with him I didn’t get the impression that any of what he was doing was illegal, only that he had some relatives who are not yet naturalized.

    This particular gentleman must have been here a long time or studied hard because he spoke almost perfect, unaccented English.

    Besides, all of that is moot to the question at hand. This guy SOLD HIS HOUSE in PW and moved, bought a new house someplace else, because he felt unwelcome.

    Oh yeah, the Lowe’s job is his part-time job. Maybe he needs the extra money to support his illegal relatives.

    RH

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