IN TIMES OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE, ILLUSIONS GROW LIKE KUDZU. BUT WHY DO THEY CONTINUE TO SURVIVE WHEN THE ECONOMY IS SHRINKING – AS IT MUST – AND AMONG CITIZENS SHOULD KNOW BETTER?
SuperMassDenial cannot be the whole answer.
One of the most frustrating aspects of working to create an understanding of functional and dysfunctional human settlement patterns is dealing with those who blithely claim that “the facts” support their position when they must know at some level that they are absolutely wrong.
It is one thing when the advocate of an Illusion if someone is heavily invested in an unfortunate decision. It is another for a person who claims to be young enough to know better continues to chan the mantra of dysfunction.
Case in point: The comment of NovaMiddleMan (NMM) that “the vast majority” support scattered Urban dwellings stated a comment on the DISAPPOINTMENT CUBED post of 18 February. Here is part of that post (in italics) with comments.
At 6:23 PM NMM said”
“I agree the blog format is not the best way to communicate.”
Great! An area of agreement to build on! In fact blogging may be the WORST way to communicate because it allows rabid defense of ridiculous positions.
“I can sense your frustration about the lack of a common nomenclature.”
But then why do you continue to use Core Confusing Words? Do you understand that continuing to use Core Confusing Words like “suburban” makes no sense, literally?
…………
“The bottom line however is that the data suggests a vast majority reject your viewpoint…”
Since EMR’s position is the market favors more Balanced settlement patterns, this must mean that “the vast majority” support unBalanced settlement patterns.
NMM must know there is no data to support his statement. Why does he make this statement?
The numbers are clear 87.5 percent (1980 to 1990 data upon which the 87.5 Percent Rule is based) did NOT choose scatteration at the Dooryard and Cluster scale, even when the choices were limited. There has never been less than 80 percent of the market who favor Balanced over scatteration IF GIVEN A CHOICE regardless of income. Twenty percent is not “a vast majority” it is an uninformed minority.
NMM has not shown one case where the same unit by the same builder sells for LESS in a more Balanced component of human settlement than it sells for a less Balanced or unBalanced, monoculture component.
The reason he has not cited the data is that it does not exist. From the 70s to the 90s there was a $100,000 difference between more Balanced vs less Balanced / unBalanced contexts.
NB: IF the TOTAL cost of location variable costs were assessed, the scattered site (unBalanced) dwelling would cost far more but that is not the case under current conditions.
The bottom line is that the market pays a premium for a more Balanced locations, period.
The market proves that NMM’s view “The American Dream” is sales hype when citizens ARE GIVEN A CHOICE.
[NB: in a later comment in this string, NMM admitted he was basing his comment on the PEW survey noted in the DISAPPOINTMENT CUBED post. This survey was profiled because of the gross Vocabulary confusion and is not a basis for identifying informed opinions. Using this survey to establish preference has all the validity of going to a used car lot and asking the first 100 tire kickers: “If price and maintenance was not an issue would you rather have a Hyundai or a Mercedes?”]
To further examine the blanket statement: “a vast majority reject your viewpoint” vis a vis residential settlement patterns – that is that the vast majority prefer scattered, unBalanced settlement patterns as opposed to more Balanced settlement patterns. Here is a two step exercise for those who want to understand the basics:
It is economically impossible for ‘a vast majority’ to own a Single Household Detached Dwelling. That is because given a normal distribution of disposable income in any First World nation-state from 60 to 95 percent of the population (depending on the state of the economy and the allocation of true costs) COULD NOT AFFORD a Single Household Detached Dwelling.
Let us assume that, fearing an uprising from ‘a vast majority’ who favor scatteration, it was decided to pay a housing stipend to every Household so ‘the vast majority’ could afford to pay for ‘what they wanted’ and they did in fact buy The American Dream per NMM.
Under those conditions it would be physically (to say nothing of economically) impossible to provide services, especially – but not limited to – Mobility and Access.
The following phrase was separated out from the rest of NMM’s assertion because these last four words make the statement into a pure red herring.
“… of urban dense living …”
EMR does not advocate “dense” Urban living. EMR does not advocate density for density’s sake. EMR advocates exactly what the market finds most attractive – Balance, especially at the Alpha Village- and Alpha Community scale.
“and prefer a ‘sub’urban lifestyle …”
Intentional use of a Core Confusing Word such as ‘suburban’ is always a red herring. The user must define what they mean by “suburban” using lot size, dwelling size, persons per acre density and other metrics for each component scale of settlement pattern from the Unit to at least the Alpha Community (aka, lowest six components in the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework.)
“close to a major metropolitan area.”
If “the vast majority” lived some where else, there would be no “metropolitan” area only scattered “sub”Urban land uses.
Even more important “close to” indicates this “vast majority” lives OUTSIDE major metropolitan areas. Since the majority of all residents live INSIDE major metropolitan areas this must be “the vast majority” of the minority?
“Those are the facts and that is what the market has demanded for years …”
As noted above, that is not so. The MARKET provides a premium for well located units in more Balanced components.
“… and still continues to demand.”
Even the marginal “demand” has slipped as the cost of dysfunction has become more painful.
“I would also add again a majority also prefer …”
“Prefer” if they believe they are among the few who can afford the total price. The larger the Region, the higher the price.
“… and demand access to automobiles and driving.”
There was never a time when driving would provide mobility for more than 50 percent of the population and that number is shrinking as the population ages and the cost rises and / or the ability to pay shrinks.
“That is not an ideological hobby horse those are the facts on the ground.”
Sorry, it is an Illusion AND a ideological hobby horse..
“I guess in all seriousness I question what you hope to achieve through this medium.”
Learn if there is a way to cure Illusions and to understand the perspective of those gripped by Myth.
“I think after several months or years most of us understand what you are trying to do.”
Apparently not since NMM has not yet gotten a handle on EMR’s perspective.
“However you seem to fail to understand the reality of the situation.”
See above.
“The world is not a sandbox you can control at will.”
Another red herring. NMM will not find a bigger advocate of the market, so long as it is a well informed market, that is citizens ca
n make decisions that are in fact in their individual and collective best interest. What is it that the vast majority would choose, if they had a choice and understood the consequences of their actions.
“Like it or not the population has rejected and continues to reject your vision for the future.”
See above.
Without a Fundamental Transformation of the governance structure (and the economic structure) there will be no Fundamental Transformation of the human settlement pattern and thus no potential for a sustainable trajectory of civilization.
The democracies with market economies are an impossibility without all three Fundamental Transformations.
As luck would have it more and more are discovering this reality. See Lifestyle preferences are shifting by Bill Cunniff in the 27 Feb Sun-Times. For a summary of the marketing success of those who claim to sell dwellings in more Balanced environments subscribe to New Urban News.
EMR