An After-Action Review of the ’23 Election

by Scott Lingamfelter

Years ago, when I was assigned to the 1st Infantry Division, we would conduct force-on-force training at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, California. It’s a vast complex in a high desert environment where training was quite realistic. We would conduct maneuvers against what was termed “the world-class OPFOR” or opposition forces, who mimicked Soviet war doctrine while we used the new “AirLand Battle” tactics to defeat them.

In many cases units who fought the OPFOR came up short, not due to our doctrine, but due to our execution of it. That’s the point: you can have the best plan in the world, and if it is poorly executed, you lose.

After each operation, we would gather with the observer controllers (OC) to evaluate our performance. It was brutally honest. Why? Because in combat, people die and that is a brutal reality. So, you train hard to win and bring your team home. That means you take inventory of your mistakes to get better the next time you execute the mission. And when you do, you focus on what occurred on the desert floor during the battle; you don’t critique the personalities of the players.

But even when focused on the raw facts of the performance, the After Action Reviews (AAR) were sometime tough to swallow. Fortunately, we had a legendary OC who made things a bit easier to digest by beginning each AAR by saying of our results, “It ain’t good, it ain’t bad, it’s just what happened.” So, let’s begin taking inventory of a recent battle for the legislature in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Republicans had a very disappointing Election Day 2023, especially at the state level. It was an important battle for the GOP to secure majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly so that our Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin could advance an agenda he felt was best for the Commonwealth. We failed. And just as we did at the NTC, let’s set personalities aside. Playing the “blame game” doesn’t produce future victories. But addressing performance honestly can help produce future victories.

Let’s begin by doing what the OCs did at the NTC: ask important questions to prompt the soldiers to think about how they performed during the battle. There’s much Republicans should consider.

  • Are we speaking to all Virginians in a way that encourages them to trust us? Or are we stuck in the culture wars that frankly alienate suburban women, young voters, and independents?
  • Did we advance a legislative agenda at the state level that actually was achievable in the past legislative environment when we had at least one chamber?
  • Did we have people working with the legislature who were knowledgeable concerning the people (members), the policies, and the politics to make the case for legislative success? (News Flash: a majority is required to pass a bill, including the budget.)
  • Do we understand that effective governance also requires building relationships, not putting down markers or drawing red lines that shut down communication?
  • Are we so galvanized to our talking points that we can’t negotiate an 80 percent solution (the Reagan approach) and then later fight for the remaining 20 percent?
  • Do both sides fear compromise as somehow undermining principle?

Republicans need to consider how we engage the voting public. This isn’t simply a matter of social media, but what we say and how we say it to gain trust to advance a rational agenda. We also must have an agenda that is achievable. If you promise the people the moon, you won’t succeed. Be measured and focus on small steps that will actually advance your cause. As in football, sometimes it’s better to gain legislative yardage on the ground rather than going for the “long bomb.”

It’s also important for the Governor to have a cabinet and staff that have relationships with the members of the General Assembly and who understand the existing policy, why it’s there, and the politics of the members whose votes you are seeking. Successful legislation depends on trustworthy relationships. And those relationships are not enhanced by ultimatums or petty retribution against a legislator who didn’t vote your way.

Finally, you need to be willing to accept the 80 percent solution and hope to come back later for the remaining 20 percent. That means compromise. You can compromise without sacrificing your principles.

Look, I am very conservative and stayed elected in a swing district for 16 years. The key to success is to be honest but reasonable, principled but not paralyzed. I was 100 percent prolife and pro-Second Amendment, but that was not my sole purpose for serving nor did either principle dominate my legislative work. I made a point to maintain effective relationships with the other side of the aisle. And in the process got much accomplished that mattered. It’s just what happened.

Scott Lingamfelter, a Republican, is a former member of the Virginia House of Delegates.

Republished with permission from The Republican Standard. 


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62 responses to “An After-Action Review of the ’23 Election”

  1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    We failed? I did not fail. I did my part at the earliest possible moment I could in September. I helped the Town Ward #5 candidate steer around a few potholes and he won. I did not fail.

    YOU failed. Yes, the Republican establishment that runs the party in Virginia. You guys are worse than having Charlie Brown as a QB. I would rather have Babe Laffenberg at QB than the people in charge at the top. You mismanaged messaging, squandered the bank box, and left the bottom of the ballot ticket to work it out on their own.

    1. And what are the establishment suppose to do to overcome the 70% of the voters who are motivated by abortion?

      1. walter smith Avatar
        walter smith

        Tell the truth? The Dems are the party of baby killing? When is too far baby-killers? 40 weeks? 35? 30? 22? 15? 12? 6? What level of baby murder will make you shut up?

        1. You’re going to have the face facts that country by and large doesn’t see abortion as murder. The moment you have to be logically consistent when someone asks you if the death penalty or life in prison is acceptable for women who get an abortion is the moment you lose the election.

        2. but that argument does not work, makes the Republican look misogynist, and makes conservatives look like they want to treat women as second class citizens who need to be punished for having sex. Get over it. Most Americans do not want to give legal personhood to the embryo/fetus and do not want the government to be monitoring their pregnancies or the government banning birth control, emergency contraception, and IVF.

          1. walter smith Avatar
            walter smith

            And most Americans agree that some restrictions are necessary. It is a huge moral problem that it is – it is still taking of a human life…

          2. But the demand that life begins at conception, that women are subordinate to the fetus/embryo they carry, and that women need to be punished for being irresponsbile mean that there is no reason for compromise with the pro-lifers.

          3. People can be pro life, as Youngkin is, without adopting those positions. What you are espousing are the demagouging positions from the election ads.

          4. Youngkin only proposed the limit to give swing voters a reason to vote for Republicans. If the Republicans had hit the state government trifecta, those Republicans would have passed something much more draconian than a 15 week ban, probably a six week ban that is an effective ban on almost all abortions. When Texas is talking about civilly suing people who drive women out of state to get an abortion, everyone sees how punitive the “pro-lifers” are and how much they hate women.

          5. You cannot know that. All you are doing is regurgitating the Dem demagoguery. That got out the vote for Dems, but it does not have a base in reality. Virginia ain’t Texas either.

            You would be better off if you knew better than to believe your own propaganda.

          6. The Republicans in Virginia voted for Trump just like the Republicans in Texas, In Alabama, and in Idaho. When given the chance Republicans will ban abortion. Remember, it was the Republicans in Virginia who were gong to demand a vagina ultrasound probe before a woman could have an abortion.

          7. Marty Chapman Avatar
            Marty Chapman

            What is the racial breakdown on abortions?

          8. walter smith Avatar
            walter smith

            Not true. I am a pro lifer. It’s still murder and morally wrong. But I’ll take a limit just not to hear the non-stop lies.

        3. You’re going to have the face facts that country by and large doesn’t see abortion as murder. The moment you have to be logically consistent when someone asks you if the death penalty or life in prison is acceptable for women who get an abortion is the moment you lose the election.

          1. walter smith Avatar
            walter smith

            Once again, most of the country thinks some restrictions are necessary. No matter how you slice it, the “clump of cells” is a human being. The fact that some compromise is necessary to shut up the zealots (baby-killers) is a moral flaw. You can make it legal, but it won’t be “right,” which is why no one wants to talk about it honestly.

          2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
            Dick Hall-Sizemore

            I am opposed to both abortion and the death penalty.

        4. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
          Dick Hall-Sizemore

          Governor Youngkin was OK with baby killing up to 15 weeks.

          1. walter smith Avatar
            walter smith

            And that wasn’T good enough for the party of baby-killing.
            The problem is the zealots. Not me. No matter what level may eventually be agreed, it is still a moral wrong. And everybody knows it. They just want sex without consequences more. Which devalues sex and life, but, go feminism! Make pampered women even more unhappy!

      2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead

        What is the establishment supposed to do? Find a new league. Plenty of big shot job openings in the Canadien Football League.

      3. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        Don’t we have to consider the Ohio approach? Whatever that was.

        (I am thinking abortion right was hard coded a little like Dems did with Va EV mandates).

      4. “And what are the establishment suppose to do to overcome the 70% of the voters who are motivated by abortion?”

        That’s the 64 dollar question. Asserting a moderate position as Youngkin did lost.

        The Repubs have to try another way. It will be interesting to see what they decide on.

  2. Virginia Gentleman Avatar
    Virginia Gentleman

    I frankly think that we are exaggerating the abortion issue as the reason for the election results. I think Dems get out and vote because they want to hang a L on Donald Trump. The longer that he continues as the leader of the Republican Party, I predict that you will continue to see election losses.

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Yes, yes! I’m certain you are correct! The Republicans must denounce Trump and push for a total ban on abortion — and books — then they are certain to win!

      1. Yes, yes! and the Dems need to embrace demented old Joe, open borders, homeless encampments, hundreds of genders and increased crime – and they will certainly win! 🙂

      2. Virginia Gentleman Avatar
        Virginia Gentleman

        Well .. I certainly didn’t say that … lol

      3. Not Today Avatar

        From your keyboard to Trump’s lips!

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Oh please, I’m not deplorable enough to write for Trump.

          Speaking of which, Hillary uses the word “deplorable” and the NYT goes ape. Trump calls his enemies “vermin” and the NYT says, “Well, that took a turn”.

    2. In an off year election there is no doubt that the more energized party tends to prevail. That is what happened in Virginia and elsewhere in the country.

      The question is what caused the arousal in Virginia. I have no doubt that anti Trumpism played a part, Trump derangement syndrome being what it is, but the ads I saw were heavily loaded with abortion. They demagogued the issue, they dismissed Youngkin’s moderate position and argued stridently that what the Repubs really wanted to do was to outlaw abortions. There were grumblings about MAGA and Trump support by individual candidates, but the overwhelming message writ large was ABORTION.

      It seems that dueling anti Trump, anti Biden appeals largely offset each other. A majority of the country, me included, does not want either of them on the ballot next year. The issue that got Dems out to the polls in Virginia this year was primarily abortion.

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        “… they dismissed Youngkin’s moderate position…”

        On the spectrum from no regulation to total ban, why isn’t stick with the current law a “moderate” position? Youngkin tried to play both sides and his position was seen as a slippery slope to far worse (see nearly every other state in the south).

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          good question and listen to the answers from conservatives to get insight to their intent if elected no matter the messaging before the election.

        2. That could also be a moderate position. “Moderate” is not an exclusive franchise. There can be more than one flavor of “moderate”.

          I believe your analysis is wrong. Youngkin’s position was in the range of “moderation”. Dem advertising ignored that and demagogued extreme positions as what Repubs really wanted.

          The Repubs need to figure out how to counter that demonization or it will bite them again next year. Asserting a moderate position was not effective.

          1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Well, there were some publicized “private” utterances on the Right that undermined the “moderate” characterization of certain candidates. Further, Youngkin was not the candidate that was on the ballot and many of the actual candidates refused to be pinned down to an actual position on the matter. If they were able to be portrayed as anti-abortion extremists, it is because they opened themselves up to the charge.

            If Youngkin had said “I am good with the status quo” and the candidates said the same thing, they would have been on much firmer ground as moderates. They specifically and adamantly rejected such a “compromise” which did nothing to garner trust from the electorate. Slippery slope argument was not a stretch.

          2. Youngkin presented the party position, and advocated for it.

            The portrayal as extremists was demagoguery , and it worked. The “slippery slope” argument was part of that demagoguery, and yes it was a stretch. It was a stretch that worked.

            The Repubs need to figure out how to reject Dem abortion extremism without getting tarred as anti abortion extremists. We will see how they fare.

          3. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Sorry but when candidates get caught on tape espousing a wish to enact a total ban and stating that Youngkin’s 15 week ban is a good first step, the slippery slope is simply confirmed. Saying that it can’t be done just because the Republicans don’t have the power in the legislature to go further certainly does not incentivize those who don’t want such a ban to vote them into power.

          4. Sorry, all you are doing is repeating the Dem demagoguery.

            There are dingleberrys on both sides. I’m not citing the Dems in that category to discredit “moderate” positions as you are with the Repubs.

            You sometimes choose to make well informed factual arguments. Other times you slip back into baiting and trollism. Those are not so attractive. I, at least, much prefer the former.

          5. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Well, it looks like the voters understood and agreed with this argument. Sorry, if you don’t like my style – alas, it is plainly stated in my name so it is what it is.

          6. I like it when you do good fact based stuff, which you have done several times recently. I’m happy to reinforce that behavior, you do good well. The other stuff, not so much. The half a troll means you’ve overcome about half of that predilection. I’ll keep poking at that in hopes it will encourage you to rise all the way above it.

            The result of the election was clear. It was stampeded not by facts but by demagoguery that spurred emotions and got out the vote. You are brighter than to believe your own propaganda.

            It was effective. The Repubs have to figure out how to counter it or it will bite them again next year.

          7. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            The best ways for Republicans to counter being painted as the party of abortion bans is to stop playing to their base which demands incremental progress toward a ban. Just saying “no, the status quo is fine” would go a long way.

          8. I too am comfortable with the status quo, and solidly pro choice, not to mention preferring life as the preferred choice.

            Youngkin’s proposal was moderate and not so far from the status quo as to be unreasonable. It had the exceptions that are needed. I thought 15 weeks was peculiar and a little stingy. But upon looking at the statistics and finding that 90%+ of abortions are done in that time frame it was not a deal breaker.

            What I object to is Dem demagoguery screaming that what the Repubs want is a ban. I have no more use for the Repubs screaming about Dems wanting partial birth abortions. The dingbats on both ends of the abortion spectrum do not represent majorities of either party.

            Obama ran on codifying Roe and had both veto and filibuster proof majorities. He and the Dems decided not to enact the law that would have taken abortion off the table. It was very clear even then that Roe was on thin Constitutional ice and it was just a matter if time before it was overturned. For them to have refused to resolve the issue when they had it both as a campaign issue and the votes to do it and to now be demagogueing it is disgusting.

          9. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            “Obama ran on codifying Roe and had both veto and filibuster proof majorities.”

            I suggest you look into how long Obama had filibuster proof majorities to work with and what he was occupied with during that brief interval. Obamacare took priority over everything else and thank god for that!

          10. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            “Obama ran on codifying Roe and had both veto and filibuster proof majorities.”

            I suggest you look into how long Obama had filibuster proof majorities to work with and what he was occupied with during that brief interval (link provided below). Obamacare took priority over everything else and thank god for that!

            https://www.beaconjournal.com/story/news/2012/09/09/when-obama-had-total-control/985146007/

          11. LarrytheG Avatar

            ” If Youngkin had said “I am good with the status quo” and the candidates said the same thing, they would have been on much firmer ground as moderates. They specifically and adamantly rejected such a “compromise” ”

            that’s the simple truth.

            If the GOP said “we’re fine with Roe v Wade, they’d do well.

            notice , on this issue, that it’s the GOP telling voters how it should be rather than the GOP listening to voters …

  3. DJRippert Avatar

    Reading that blog post by Scott is like listening to Ron Rivera talk about the Commanders.

    “Yeah, we lost another game we should have won. We just need to play better.”

  4. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    “Uh, yep. No matter what you say, I’m certain those grapes are sour, Mr. Crow.”

  5. vicnicholls Avatar
    vicnicholls

    Or are we stuck in the culture wars that frankly alienate suburban women, young voters, and independents?
    ** The polls said yes. Principals also, there is no way you can excuse murder. 15 weeks works in Europe. It is the time of dismemberment abortions. They have to know this. So yes, there is a time where getting young women to face the music and start taking responsibility is there.

    Did we advance a legislative agenda at the state level that actually was achievable in the past legislative environment when we had at least one chamber?
    ** Not communicated.

    Did we have people working with the legislature who were knowledgeable concerning the people (members), the policies, and the politics to make the case for legislative success? (News Flash: a majority is required to pass a bill, including the budget.)
    ** No.

    Do we understand that effective governance also requires building relationships, not putting down markers or drawing red lines that shut down communication?
    ** Seems to work for xxxxxxxxxxx Senator Louise Lucas. We HAVE to stop being the party of give in. The D’s know this and draw the hard lines. It is time to start doing what they’re doing instead of constantly negotiating. Some things are non negotiable.

    Are we so galvanized to our talking points that we can’t negotiate an 80 percent solution (the Reagan approach) and then later fight for the remaining 20 percent?
    ** Why should women give up their right to protect themselves with guns, when it is clear violence is ok against them? Why should we lose 20% of that?

    Do both sides fear compromise as somehow undermining principle?
    ** Lucas does. She’ll hurt voters to make out for the D party and they approve. So somewhere, someone aint getting the message in the R party.

  6. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    VPAP used the ’21 governor’s race and another election to rank the partisan lean of the new districts and to identify the handful of swing seats. It nailed the analysis perfectly and all the solid- and leaning- districts went as predicted. All. There were more D districts than R from the start. The R’s won a fair share of the competitive districts, but really needed to win them all. Abortion served principally as a D turnout magnet and the R’s offered nothing of comparable impact to turn out their voters. Further explanation is just the various experts asserting that their pet theories were correct. 🙂

    Trump will complete his work of destroying the Republican Party in 2024. If he wins, he gets to destroy much, much more.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      re: “turnout magnet”. yes

      and the GOP candidates were loathe to really show any flexibility on the issue. It was 15 weeks
      and that was it – take it or leave it and they did!

      They STILL came within a whisker of breaking even with one house and one might ask, did they have a chance to win both houses or was it pretty much preordained per VPAP?

      1. Stephen Haner Avatar
        Stephen Haner

        Abortion was the only issue, only, where there was a GOP positiion. Not taxes, not energy, not union regulation, not education or economic development. The only thing voters knew the GOP would do if put in charge was that 15-week abortion cap. Hard to imagine a dumber strategy.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          pretty much proof the hard right won out on campaign strategy… but also did
          the GOP candidates try to do more on their own to get to the other issues?

          Not in Fredericksburg for the most part – negative ads about how awful the other side was.

        2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          Oh and parents… don’t forget parents… except parents of trans kids that is…

    2. Not Today Avatar

      And there are STILL those who will not listen.

    3. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      I think you nailed it.

    4. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      Good points. I noticed that, as well. The two parties split the strongly competitive districts.

  7. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “Do both sides fear compromise as somehow undermining principle?”

    I am all good with Republicans being introspective and evaluating their positions in light of their losses last Tuesday. But stay in your lane… this is not a “both sides” exercise…

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      yep, you KNOW something when the excuse is “both sides” did not want to compromise.

      What the heck?

  8. Not Today Avatar

    I am enjoying you, men, speaking amongst yourselves about the obvious and foreseeable consequences of trying to control/subjugate women and turn them into baby factories, with or without consent. Carry on!

  9. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    And this is why the fair map is no friend to Republicans in Virginia… and why it is not just about abortion… and why Republicans may want to moderate and step away from the culture war candy jar…

    VA’s HoD this year:

    “Rs in striking distance of a majority.
    But Dems really just inches from a blowout.

    Reps would have needed to win D+5 HD97 to keep a majority. But less than half that margin would have net Dems an additional *five* seats in the house.”

    Republicans really dodged a bullet. This year…

    https://x.com/djsokespeaking/status/1724252709883183540?s=46&t=EcwGhKrZE8q8arKAPs5Apw

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/96d5302328b895bd447c9068183517d3d9dc2fc056dd2931d68b4a1b69e9cc63.jpg

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      interesting analysis ………

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Same pattern is true for the VA Senate as well…

    2. Not Today Avatar

      I see my HD in that list. It was VERY close.

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