THE AMERICAN DREAM AMENDED

Professor Sugrue’s “The New American Dream: Renting”(The Wall St Journal 14 August 2009) is a must read for anyone interested in shelter or in solving the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis or shelter in general. The article can be accessed at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204409904574350432677038184.html#mod=article-outset-box

Sugrue makes it very clear that:

1. The emergence of,

2. The overwhelmingly dominate run of, and

3. The crash of

What the real estate industry likes to call “The American Dream,” and

What many others call “The 50 Year American Nightmare,”

was NOT the result of free market decisions by well informed consumers.

It was NOT citizens voting with their dollars for what they love and want to experience with respect to human settlement patterns. That is especially true over the last 36 years.

The so-called “American Dream” is the vehicle that the real estate industry and land speculators have fashioned to make the most money fastest and will have a devastating long term impact on economic prosperity, social stability and environmental sustainability of contemporary society.

Sugrue argues that The American Dream / Nightmare has been made possible by the misunderstood and largely hidden role of Federal Agencies. Further, the Federal role did not start with the New Deal and did not end with The Fair Deal or The Great Society. It was a major component of The Ownership Society.

In Sugrue’s view Single Household Detached Dwellings would not be “The American Dream” but for Federal Agency intervention in the shelter and land markets. In addition, there would not have been repeated housing / land development bubbles without Federal Agency initiative and resources.

“Land Development Bubble?” Yes! You may recall the REIT Crash and the Savings and Loan Crisis. They cost investors and tax payers billions.

The most recent of these recurring housing / land development bubbles has caused the current Global Financial Meltdown. The Meltdown was caused by the fabrication of fraudulent securities based on bad mortgages. But the underlying factors – loans to poor credit risks, crooked appraisals, illegal lending practices, out of control compensation schemes, faulty regulation and Wrong Size House, Wrong Location dwellings – that fueled the BOOM and the BUST were all part of a grand scheme to drive Mass OverConsumption and speculation in shelter.

As EMR noted in the comments to the “Ignoring the Real Issues” post, Sugrue has put together great quotes, interesting data and a narrow perspective to come to a faulty conclusion. (As also noted in that string, Larry Gross gets a hardy vote of thanks for providing the link to the Journal coverage.)

Sugrue comes to the wrong conclusion because of three major discontinuities in his shelter-centric Conceptual Framework:

1. Without massive Federal (and state) Agency subsidies of the Autonomobile, most of the disastrous cumulative consequences of The American Dream / Nightmare would never have occurred.

In other words Federal Agencies can be blamed for dysfunctional human settlement patterns due to TWO mutually reinforcing Agency strategies. Sugrue blames dysfunctional a human settlement pattern on shelter strategies but that is only half the story. We will return to this point below.

2. It is NOT citizens owning a DWELLING that is the ROOT cause of the problems Sugrue cites but the configurations of the lots upon which the vast majority of the dwellings were built. We will return to the ownership issue, but first the third discontinuity.

3. Widespread use of rental housing is NOT a ‘solution’ to the shelter problem or to the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis.

Most shelter professionals agree there is great economic, social and physical value in ‘ownership.’ However, as RH points out in the earlier string, a nation-state of landlords would be no ‘dream.’ He also notes that landlords could write off the cost of money as an expense of doing business and so they would have an advantage when the mortgage tax deduction goes away as it must. (Even if Federal Agencies had more money than they knew what to do with it, the mortgage tax deduction should be limited to those at the bottom of the Ziggurat as noted in Chapter 22 – Without Shelter: The Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis of TRILO-G.)

Absentee ownership is an ancient and universal generator of shelter dysfunction especially in Regions with market economies. Renting dwelling units ONLY in owner occupied buildings is a solution applied in some Cluster-scale and Neighborhood-scale Institutions posing as quasi-Agencies.

Now back to the larger ownership issue raised as point two above.

The central issue is not the ‘ownership’ of the DWELLING, it is the location of the dwelling in the middle of a lot and the resulting cumulative disaggregation of human settlement patterns that raises the cost and causes most of the dysfunctions that Sugrue correctly decries.

Lewenz does a nice job of spelling out the benefits of settlement patterns that do NOT contain individual lots – and do not provide space to drive and park Autonomobiles within the Urban fabric – in How to Build a Village. The cumulative economic, social an physical impact of ANY homogeneous configuration of single Household detached dwelling is a major focus of Part Two, Chapters 5 through 14 of The Shape of the Future.

In addition, many who live on a separate lot also live with the delusion that can do what ever they want on their ‘land.’ The cumulative result is dysfunctional scatteration and disaggregation of Urban society – and 95 percent of the population is Urban.

Over the past 200 years Industrialization and application of complex technology has resulted in the collective impact human habitation to intensify exponentially. Humans now have the ability to warp and destroy Regional, Continental and Global natural systems. One needs to go no farther than the Chesapeake Bay to understand this reality. The dysfunctional scatteration caused by extensive monocultures of individual lots exacerbates the problem. On-site mitigation of some impacts – sanitation and storm water for example – only make the problem of cumulative dispersion worse.

In other words the central issue is not “home ownership” but rather human settlement pattern.

It turns out that too many well intended and thoughtful citizens have been frightened by Garrett Hardin’s 1968 essay “The Tragedy of the Commons.” There can be tragedy in commons but that is a problem of management, not of ownership patterns. Solving the over-use of the commons is just one aspect of need for Fundamental Transformation in the way land the planets resource is managed and maintained. This is the topic of PART FOUR of TRILO-G – THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND.

As pointed out in this PART, ownership, control and management are separate functions impacting land.

Some have used the existence of bad public or shared land ownership, control and management as an excuse to over sell “the miracle of private ownership.” There is an important role for private ownership. However, there is also and important role for joint ownership – for example by a husband and wife – and for a whole range of shared-ownership options.

Intelligently applying a full range of ownership options is key to evolving functional land use patterns made up of Balanced organic components of human settlement. The issue is NOT private ownership vs public ownership, it is finding the appropriate role for individual ownership within the wide array of joint ownership options and paring that option with the appropriate land management strategy.

There are many ownership options for ‘non-free-standing’ dwellings. One is attached dwellings. In Planned New Communities (Balanced components of Urban fabric at Alpha Community-scale) built between 1967 and 2000 in the US of A, the majority of dwellings are ATTACHED, not DETACHED dwellings.

Condominiums, cooperatives and other arrangements come to mind as a way to “own” a home and not have a free-standing dwelling on an individual lot. Condominiums in particular have become poster children of ineffective Cluster-scale governance and management. That is because states have failed to use their ‘reserved powers’ to evolve functional governance structures below the municipal level. Current governance structures fail to reflect the evolution from an agrarian society to an Urban society. Condominium and Homeowners Associations are notorious examples of bad governance in large part because they have no role the formal governance structure. There are, of course at this time no functional Regional / SubRegional governance structures that reflects economic, social and physical reality in the US of A.

Agencies have also – especially Federal Agencies in the West – given ‘public’ ownership of land a bad name due to bad management. This gross failure has been intentionally use to wrongly condemn all shared-ownership arrangements.

It is axiomatic that the scale of the land bay and the proximity of the Urban enclaves should determine the level of ownership, control and management of Openland. See Adirondack land use control system and PART FOUR – THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND in TRILO-G.

The importance of shared land ownership in functional human settlement patterns and in solving the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis is mirrored in the importance of shared-vehicle systems in solving the Mobility and Access Crisis.

Finally lets us turn to the last of Sugrue’s oversights with respect to the causes of settlement pattern dysfunction (aka, The American Dream / Nightmare):

By focusing on just the Federal role in the subsidy of scattered dwellings, Sugrue masks the problems with Federal subsidy of Mobility and Access.

The fact is that, but for Large, Private Vehicles with which to access the dispersed dwellings on individual lots, most of the problems Sugrue sites would never have arisen.

It is not just the government subsidy of the dwelling – the process of building and financing shelter – that is at the root of the problem but the Federal Agencies’s role in subsidizing the dominance of the Autonomobile as the primary option for Mobility and Access – what is good for GM is good for America.

There is a long history of Federal dominance in transport infrastructure. It started with post roads, stage routes and canals during the Confederacy and expanded after the adoption of the Constitution to railroads and then to Roadways (aka, Motorways) and finally to Air travel facilities.

A place to get a good summary of the Federal role in Autonomobile is Weyrich and Lind’s 2009 book Moving Minds: Conservatives and Public Transportation. Weyrich and Lind have taken on what they calls “the anti-transit troubadours” (including Winston and Shirley profiled in the earlier post METRO FINGER POINTING 24 June 2009, and the subject of QUACK, QUACK, QUACK 18 August 2009.)

In order to establish a base from which to attack myths about ‘transit’ (aka, shared-vehicle), Weyrich and Lind needed to destroy the illusion that “Automobiles pay their own way but public transit is ‘subsidized.’

They document that from the 1890s on, Federal Agencies were spending more to support Roadways than railways. There had been – past tense – huge subsidies, especially in the form of land grants from before the Civil War to the completion of the transcontinental railways but by the end of The Long Depression in 1896 the focus was on Roadways.

Federal Agencies never did aid Urban rail transport. In fact, as Weyrich and Lind point, out the Federal role was to hobble the privately owned Urban rail systems (subways, trolley lines, streetcars, interurban lines and commuter rail) by turning a blind eye to the municipal and state regulation and rate control.

As the Urban fabric morphed from Agrarian society ‘cities’ to Industrial Centers and then to New Urban Regions the municipal and state regulatory regimes did not allow the private suppliers of shared-vehicle services to evolve new rate structures, equipment and infrastructure to meet the changing shape of travel demand.

On the other hand, there is a Federal revenue source for support of Roadways that only recently has been extended to Agency owned shared-vehicle systems. This came long after a settlement pattern that favored Autonomobiles was dominate over the majority of every New Urban Region in the US of A.

There was also the well documented role of the Autonomobile Industrial Complex – not just the car companies but all those who benefitted from use of internal combustion engines on Roadways – petroleum, rubber, insurance and of course land speculators – to buy up and then tear up the Urban rail systems in order to promote the use of Autonomobiles and buses on the subsidized Roadways.

The bottom line is that Sugrue provides an import part of the picture, but not the whole picture. One would hope he fills in these gaps in his forthcoming book on “the history of real estate in modern America.”

EMR


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Comments

109 responses to “THE AMERICAN DREAM AMENDED”

  1. Larry G Avatar

    too many words EMR.

    Is the concept of home ownership behind some of this?

    I think so.

    because we define "owning" your home as the American Dream and many of our govt policies incentivize home ownership over renting.

    How about comparing home ownership rates according to settlement patterns especially those that meet the "balance" criteria?

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I made 25% on my REIT investment in the last 90 days. Values of some investments go down — and up.

    The mortgage interest deduction isn;t going anywhere. If you eliminate it for homeowners, you give unfair advantage to the landlords, who still get to deduct their interest.

    If you eliminate the interest dedction for landlords, you have to eliminate it for all businesses, otherwise you will have no investment in real estate.

    Consider, I have a half million to invest. If I invest in real estate I can invest in $2.5 million worth of real estate with my half million for a down payment – deduct the interest. If my property increases in value by 25% I made 100% on my investment.

    Without the leverage I might buy one rental property and make 5% on my money. With the leverage I might buy five properties and make 5% on each, or 25% on my investment. Without the interest deduction, it is a no-go.

    But, there are plenty of other, non real estate opportunities were I can still borrow to increase my investment return, and I can still deduct the interest.

    You could, of course, eliminate all interest dedctions for everyone equally. Put everything more or lwss on a cash basis.

    If you really wanted to kill the economy.

    RH

    RH

  3. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "They document that from the 1890s on, Federal Agencies were spending more to support Roadways than railways."

    Why shouldn't they? Roadways carry virtually all the traffic and freight – even traffic and freight that is carried part way by rail.

    It is natural that we would spend more money on what we use the most.

    It isn't a myth that autos pay their own way. Auto drivers pay a higher proportion of their own expenswes than any other mode – and they also support the other modes.

    The myth here is that it makes any difference whether A pays more of its own way than B, or that one is more virtuous than another. What we need is the best mix for the eleast money, and that is NOT going to include a lot of rail.

    After all, if rail is such a hot idea, then why is it that after 30 years of experiment the METRO still needs more money, just to maintain itself?

    If Metro is such a hot idea, why is the new prple line being downgraded to light rail? Why throw yet another mode change into the mix, so we can spend even more time transferring?

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "…the Federal role was to hobble the privately owned Urban rail systems (subways, trolley lines, streetcars, interurban lines and commuter rail) by turning a blind eye to the municipal and state regulation and rate control. "

    And that was proscribed by what, the Constitution? Aren't the Feds more or less prohibited from work allocated to the states?

    RH

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "It is axiomatic that the scale of the land bay and the proximity of the Urban enclaves should determine the level of ownership, control and management of Openland. "

    Translation:

    The Open Land is so valuable and important to the urban enclaves that they should be allowed to steal or expropriate it for their own purposes by virtue of their greater numbers at the polls.

    Whatever happened to the idea of people paying their full locational costs?

    Let alone paying for property taken for public use.

    RH

  6. Groveton Avatar

    Your General Assembly At Work:

    Here is a post written by State Sen. Chap Petersen on his blog site. In my opinion, it illustrates (once again) the incompetence of the Virginia General Assembly as an organization. While the GA has some good people (like Chap) they are obviously hopeless as a group. Jim Bacon posted quite a few articles on VITA over the past few years. Now, Chap Petersen weighs in with his side of the story. For what it's worth, I asked an executive at a company which competes with Northrup Grumman about the VITA contract. He had every reason to bash the competition. But he didn't. He said the governance structure was appalling. He went on to tell me that he was hapy that his company was not involved in this since it was "an accident waiting to happen".

    The GA is the group who many posting on this blog want to endow with almost dictatorial power under Dillon's Rule. Recently, we have seen an unconstitutional transportation bill, abuser fees legislation that had to be recinded almost as soon as it was passed, the loss of thousands of very personal prescription records from a state web site and the grossly incompetent and culpably negligent establishment of a Rube Goldberg organization to run the state's IT operations.

    How much more is it going to take?

    http://oxroadsouth.com/2009/08/18/reforming-vita.aspx

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "It is axiomatic that the scale of the land bay and the proximity of the Urban enclaves should determine the level of ownership, control and management of Openland. "

    Again.

    This is so old school socialist environmental thinking. EMR should bring himself up to date on moder environmental protection through market economics and proerty rights.

    ——————————-

    While carbon markets are currently dominating discussions, they are certainly not the only type of ecosystem service market being utilized for environmental benefits. Other examples include water quality or nutrient trading, conservation easements, and habitat banking for endangered species. Section 404 of the Clean Water Act led to the establishment of wetland mitigation banks, which proved to be a successful conservation device. ……

    Current ecosystem service markets have just scratched the surface. Robert Costanza and others estimated the global annual value of ecosystem services was $33 trillion. The voluntary carbon market in 2008 was estimated to be worth about $705 million. The forest carbon offset markets in H.R. 2454 provide an opportunity to expand and refine ecosystem service markets aggressively and incorporate them into the larger economic system domestically and worldwide………….

    Widespread acceptance of carbon-related ecosystem services may present a vehicle for the expanded usage of other types of ecosystem services. Combining the value of these different services is called bundling or stacking, and it allows landowners and indigenous communities expanded opportunities to be compensated for maintaining and enhancing ecosystem functions……..

    It is important to note that services will be stacked or bundled in a single ecosystem, but must be well-defined enough to separate into autonomous markets……

    In order for any of this to happen the proerty rights must be well defined, Wich means that people like EMR should stop advocating the (faulty) idea that we can arbitrarily change them at any time "for the public benefit".

    RH

    Comments from Danny Morris on the Common Tragedies Blog.

  8. Groveton Avatar

    RH –

    Property rights are being taken away from property owners in myriad ways. Here are a few examples of where I see property rights being taken:

    1. Bayfrom property in Talbot County, MD. Not long ago a person with bayfront property could build a house as close to the bay as they wanted. For hundreds of years people built farms close to the bay but not right on top of the bay. The bay floods, the bay slashes into your house during thunder-showers, the bay is where the mosquitoes live. People bought property under that system. Then, under the guise of protecting the bay, Talbot county established a 100' set back for all new construction. First, you'd have to suspend your disbelief long enough to think that the runoff from an additional 25' of bayfront property made a material difference to the health of the bay. More likely, the existing homeowners liked looking at trees when they gazed out their windows and over some creek or another. Of course, existing property was exempted from the 100' set back rule. At first, you'd say, "sure – nobody should have to demolish their existing homes". But the exemption applied not only to existing homes but to any tear down activity as well. If I buy a rickety old house built 75' from the mean water line of the bay I can knock the old house down and build a brand new house 75' from the mean water line. Whoa?!? What happened to protecting the bay from that devastating additional 25' of runoff? Protecting the bay was never the point. The point was protecting the existing homeowners from seeing property developed on raw land across the waterways. In addition, forbidding new construction within 100' of the water line while allowing demolition and re-consturuction on existing footprint within 100' of the water line made the existing homes even more valuable. Soon, the existing homeowners realizied that 100' wasn't enough additional space. You could still see rooftops across the creek if the new homes were built at the 100' line. What to do? What to do? The setback was increased to 200'. This further increased the value of existing homes (which are still exempt even in a teardown) and reduced the value of raw land. The property rights of those owning undeveloped land were stolen by the owners of developed land under the pretense of saving the bay.

    2. Rt 15 and the Journey Through Hallowed Ground. You remember this scam. Declare Rt 15 to be a priceless piece of American heritage because there were some Civilr War skirmishes along the road. Ignore the fact that there were Civil War skirmishes and battles almost everywhere in Northern Virginia. Instead, preten that Rt. 15 is some kind of "linear Pearl Harbor". Then, declare the road to be a sanctuary replete with $15M of federal funding for road signs, etc. What's the real deal? The wealthy existing homeowners west of Rt 15 worry that suburban growth with reach them and their horse farms. They don't want that. So, they dream up some utter BS about the sanctity of Rt 15 and get a special designation from the Federal government for thie "hallowed ground". In reality, they want a basis for opposing any expansion, widening, new interchanges, etc on Rt 15. Rt 15 becomes a mandatory bottleneck. The horsey – set (all born with a silver foot in their mouths) don't have to mingle with suburban hoi polloi (I mean those people don't even watch polo!). Of course, the long time residents who own farms and other undeveloped land west of Rt 15 get screwed when their land is never worth what it could have been worth if the fabrication of all Rt 15 = hallowed ground had never occured. Was their a vote on this? LOL. Did Jessie James take a vote of bank employees before he robbed them?

    I'd watch these "new fangled" conservation policies very carefully. Many are just con games perpetrated by recently – arrived rich people from elsewhere agianst the long-time residents of places with scenic value.

  9. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Groveton: you are absolutely right.

    Increased setbacks are a favorite form of uncompensated regulatory taking. It increases the value of existing homes and often prevents construction of new ones. My brother lost two house lots thaat way. It is clearly illegal since the Supreme court has already ruled that merely claiming to prevent some damage does not alleviate the requirement that property be paid for. All that remains is a more careful definition of what constitutes proerty. Under the present rules almost all of the value of your property must be taken. Therefore, places like Talbot are careful to leave the owner five percent or so.

    This, of course conflicts with the bundle of sticks doctrine, so it is only a question of time before places like Talbot greedily overstep themselves and trigger a case that makes it to the Supremes.

    The way conservation easements are handled or development rights buy- backs like Fauquier has are also property takings in disguise, and sold with false advertising.

    But as I have tried to point out, all of that kind of activity is old school. A better and fairer model is to pay for desired enviromental services, (on an onging basis, not a one shot payment) at a rate that makes owning and retaining land desireable.

    All of EMRs plans are designed to either devalue open space or make it expensive to use: thereby "saving" it. Never mind if it saves the owners to death.

    You are also correct on the route 15 / route 50 traffic calming debacle. This is another plan that is likely to backfire.

    I can drive 30 miles on Route 50 or 50 miles on another route – in the same amount of time, on a road that is less bumpy and safer. But the higher speed and distance means more wear and tear and more gas.

    All for a supposedly green initiative.

    RH

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Ray & Groveton:

    Why are rights to dirt deserving of more protection than rights to other property, as you seem to suggest?

    I will acknowledge that, at some point, regulation constitutes confiscation of property, whether that property is dirt or a share of stock. The government regularly uses (rightly or wrongly) its regulatory powers that greatly affect the value of one's property.

    Congress just passed a new law that imposes major regulations and limitations on the credit card business. In the 1990s, Congress passed laws that restricted the ability of companies to market their goods and services using telephone calls. Those restrictions were tightened substantially by the FTC and FCC in this decade. The SEC just imposed more restrictions on one's ability to sell stock short and is considering even more. The CFTC and Congress are considering restrictions on commodities trading. The General Assembly passes a new tax or fee that reduces my income or assets.

    All of these regulations have a negative impact on property rights. And we could all list many more federal, state and local regulations that affect property rights.

    I'm arguing the merits of any of these regulations. But many Americans accept them as valid exercises of government's regulatory or police powers. And I won't argue that some regulations are designed to protect competitors' interests or those of some powerful interest group.

    So why are restrictions on one's use of real property somehow different? If there is a valid reason to protect bodies of water from runoff or something else, why is it unreasonable to prohibit new building within certain distances from the shoreline?

    I just don't get it. Why are rights to dirt more valuable than rights to other types of property including our bank account balances?

    TMT

  11. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Why are rights to dirt more valuable than rights to other types of property including our bank account balances?
    "

    They are not, they are exactly the same.

    Would you tolerate your account balance being arbitrarily reduced in favor of someone else's?

    RH

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    more protection than rights to other property, as you seem to suggest?

    Never suggested any such thing. Only that property rights are property rights.

    Suppose you have $100 in your wallet and I steal $90.

    That is still stealing. But if I have $100,000 worth of land and the county reduces its value by $90,000, that isn't stealing?

    RH

  13. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Congress just passed a new law that imposes major regulations and limitations on the credit card business. In the 1990s, Congress passed laws that restricted the ability of companies to market their goods and services using telephone calls. "

    And why was that? Because businesses were widely abusing the privileges they had.

    Now, In Fauquier county there used to be an allowance of three "administrative" lots, which were granted to large landowners as a quid pro quo, at the time of a major downzoning. This allowance was mad so that the owners would have at least something left after the downzoning.

    This was palatable, at the time, because many landowners did not want to sell, necessarily, anyway but they might want a spot for the kids.

    Later the kids decided they didn't want to stick around, so some administrative lots were sold for cash. The county decided, in the words of one Supervsor, that people were "taking advantage" of the law. As a result, the three adminsitrative lots were reduced to one.

    I don;t see how you can compare the "abuse" in the first case, with the "abuse" in the second case.

    If anything, it was the landowners that goat abused.

    Again.

    RH

  14. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "The SEC just imposed more restrictions on one's ability to sell stock short and is considering even more. "

    This is a little different, and probably ill considered.

    We don't want any more "bubbles" and yet we restrict the ability to speculate downward, but not up.

    Doesn't make a lot of sense.

    ———————

    Even so, this is not a good analogy to land ownership. You buy a lot that has, according to written rules, the possibility of three lots, and you pay a price accordingly. Then, the county unilateraly takes away two of those lots through a setback change.

    You have made an investment under false pretenses. If someone in the market did that to you, then you would have recouse under law. But if the county does it, then caveat emptor?

    ————————

    How does a short sale work? You Borrow the stock, and sell it at todays price, then you hope for the price to go down. Then you buy the stock at a lower price and return it. If you screw up, you have to buy it at a HIGHER price, in order to make good your "borrowing".

    The SEC impose restrictions on something that you DO NOT OWN. That is a whole lot different than imposing restrictions on land that you DO own.

    RH

  15. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "The CFTC and Congress are considering restrictions on commodities trading."

    Yes. they want to prevent a few large traders from holding more futures than are actually available. Cornering the market, in other words.

    It is a whole different deal from ruining an individual's entire holdings in a "piece of dirt".

    RH

  16. Jordan Hixon Avatar
    Jordan Hixon

    The American dream is dead if Obama gets his way. The whole notion of "the public good" of which he speaks of defeats the purpose. There is no American dream if we are all on the same income level permanently. good post. I agree with Larry G, way too many words. Definitely adding you to my website. Great site man.

  17. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "The General Assembly passes a new tax or fee that reduces my income or assets."

    Conservatives love to argue, after Ayn Rand, that this is the same as stealing. They neglect or refuse to admit that we have agreed to have government precisely because government can do some things the free market cannot. Because there are some things that provide a net benefit not obtainable any other way.

    The point is, the point Ihave been making, and the point the GAO has put into policy is that the General Assembly has nor reason to create a new tax or fee unless it demonstrably increases the public welfare.

    You might disagree whether the increase improves YOUR welfare. We spend the money on police, but you already live in a "safe" neighborhood. What have you gained?

    We currently figure the statistical value of human life at around $6.5 to $7.5 million. If we add $650,000 to the police budget and save one life, that is a bargain.

    How does it benefit you? Well that is one person that might be a customer, and spend more in your business than the tax cost you.

    Or it might might be the person that gives you emergency Heimlich or CPR.

    In any case, it is one more person to share your tax burden.

    RH

  18. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "The whole notion of "the public good" of which he speaks of defeats the purpose. There is no American dream if we are all on the same income level permanently. "

    Adam Smith said he had a rather dim view of anyone who claimed to be doing business for the public good.

    But it is the BUSINESS of governement to do business for the public good. It has no other reason to exist.

    Certainly, it is part of the American dream to succeed, by which we implicitly mean to succeed more than our neighbors.

    Yet, I know people who make %50k who are happy. They own their home, pay their bills and have something left over for fun.

    And I know others making ten times that who are stuck on the hedonic treadmill, keeping up with the Jones's. Running as fast as they can, EMR would say. They are miserable, in spite of, or because of, their affluence.

    Why does the American Dream have to mean infinite, unffettered affluence, oblivious to the suffering around us?

    I'll conceed your relativist argument: how would we know if we are Happy if we are all equal in belongings? What would we be working for? Where is the incentive?

    Now show me where OBAMA has ever suggested such a thing.

    Let's not confuse equal opportunity to try, with equal opportunity to succeed. Where is the satisfaction in winning superlatively a race over rotten ground when you are given shoes that no one else has?

    Is that what you call the American Dream?

    RH

  19. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Suppose we all had our $50k, our homes and enough to pay our bills, with some left for fun.

    What, exactly, is wrong with that as an American Dream?

    And suppose, that was the condition of Friday night. Don;t you suppose, as someone once pointed out, that all the same people would be rich by Monday morning?

    Isn't that the problem with places like Mexico? As my friend Jesus said about the Mexian economy, "What good all that money, it no go round and round??"

    No liberal I know of is suggesting we make everyone equal in value and stagnant.

    We need to change or refine the rules occasionally, but that does not mean we are allowed to steal in the proocess.

    When government does chane the rules "for the public good", the only ay it makes sens is if no one is wose off and everyone is better off.

    You might think that you are not better off if government takes you money so that others won't be homeless or starving, or illiterate, but that is becasue you have notbeen robbed.

    Yet.

    RH

  20. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Property rights issues – again.

    "As more people put solar installations on their roofs, a perplexing question has arisen. What happens when a house is generating more electricity than it needs – and sending it back out onto the grid. How do you account for it?

    The situation is broadly known as net metering. States have adopted different approaches, setting limits on how much power homeowners can put back on the grid, how they should get paid and how much.

    Net metering rules have turned out to be surprisingly controversial. Put simply: If homeowners are putting power onto the grid, they want to get paid – kilowatt for kilowatt – for that power. But utilities argue that these homeowners still rely on power from the grid some of the time and need to pay their fair share for upkeep of transmission lines.

    The issue flared up a couple weeks ago in Colorado when Xcel Energy asked the state for a new fee on solar installations. People were furious."

    Who owns the grid? If I put power back out on the grid, someone, somewhere is going to use it. Why should I be able to use "someone Else's" grid to Transport my product for free? If we ever get to solar nirvana and all our power comes from local solar, then who will own and pay for the grid?

    From environmental capital
    RH

  21. Larry G Avatar

    with regard to property rights – what is the mortgage interest deduction?

    are you not taking away the property of those who rent and giving it to those who buy?

  22. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "there is a Federal revenue source for support of Roadways that only recently has been extended to Agency owned shared-vehicle systems."

    And yet, you claim, autos don;t pauy their own way. Thay are supposed to pay for shared systems as well?

    Whatever happened to each paing ther own full losctional costs?

    RH

  23. Larry G Avatar

    here's the rub with the tax on fuels and vehicles.

    unlike taxes on other property than is used for a wide variety of purposes that may not be a direct benefit to the property, the idea behind the fuel tax and taxes on cars was to use those taxes to provide infrastructure for the vehicles the tax was levied on.

    If you followed that convention, then you'd tax the trains and use the revenue to provide infrastructure for the trains.

    What EMR and others who support mass transit apparently believe and I don't quite follow is that is would be okay to take taxes from autos and use it for rail even if the folks in the autos still want to drive their autos and not use the train.

    I'm not understanding the logic behind this but I recognize that there are more than a few folks who think it is okay.

    In fact, the METRO extension is being financed from tolls on cars…..

    and VRE commuter rail is also financed similarly – a tax on fuel for vehicles whose occupants, largely will never use VRE – including other mass transit such as buses and vans.

    and NOT Lanes would work the same way.. tolls collected from cars would be used for mass transit.

    I don't think it is written in stone anywhere that taxes cannot be imposed on one thing and used for another… right?

    in other words.. we have taxes on income and property and the revenues don't go back to benefit where it was derived.

    so what makes taxes on fuels and autos any different?

    why should taxes on cars and fuel be dedicated ONLY to benefit cars?

  24. Tobias Jodter Avatar
    Tobias Jodter

    Suppose the county increases the value of your land by $90,000 (e.g. rezoning). Is anyone opposed to that? Who is that money being stolen from?

  25. Larry G Avatar

    ever notice how the developers snap up all the land whenever water/sewer is expanded or a new road planned?

    Perhaps localities should be permitted to a cut of the profits when land increases in value due to expansion of infrastructure?

  26. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "What EMR and others who support mass transit apparently believe and I don't quite follow is that is would be okay to take taxes from autos and use it for rail even if the folks in the autos still want to drive their autos and not use the train."

    And STILL claim that autos are not pwaying their own way.

    RH

  27. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "I don't think it is written in stone anywhere that taxes cannot be imposed on one thing and used for another… right?
    "

    Well, no.

    But still, there is an implicit promise made when we create the highwya turst fund, the air traffic trust fund, and the hunting and fissing trust funds that fees for those activities would be used to support those actvities.

    I expect my government to keep its promises.

    But what we get is "transportation" funds being used to support the replica ship "Virginia", the "Godspeed" and that kind of creative accounting.

    As far as I'm concerned, it is a lie.

    If you need money, you have to go where the money is, and in transportation, that means cars. But let's at least give credit, and acknowledge that it is CAR DRIVERS that make VRE and METRO possible.

    And let's also recognize that if you suck TOO MUCH MONEY out of car divers, and spend too little on auto infrastructure, then you are going to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

    This is a self destructive prophecy. Most mass transit costs more than most auto transit, and serves fewer locations, unless you provide hugeparking areas for autos to supplement mass transit. The more mass transit succeeds, the more transit usrers will have to suppor its costs, and the less popular it will be.

    RH

  28. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "why should taxes on cars and fuel be dedicated ONLY to benefit cars?"

    Because that was the promise made at the time the taxes were imposed.

    RH

  29. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Suppose the county increases the value of your land by $90,000 (e.g. rezoning). Is anyone opposed to that? Who is that money being stolen from?"

    Is that before or after they reduced the value by $30 million through downzoning?

    RH

  30. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Suppose the county increases the value of your land by $90,000 (e.g. rezoning). Is anyone opposed to that? "

    Well, that is a good question.

    Apparently a LOT of people are opposed to that. I'm not sure why. One would think that they would be pleased to see the tax base increased, (to see someone else paying more taxes) and that used to be the case.

    But then,the popular argument became (thanks to AFT and others) that the tax increase was less than the tax expense.

    The argument now is that anyone with (already developed) property is better off if (further development) is prevented. The reason being that we can efectively steal from farmers and vacant landowners by charging them twice as much in taxes as they cost us.

    And never mind that the implicit corollary MUST BE that the taxes on residential use are not high enough to cober their own locational costs.

    RH

  31. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "ever notice how the developers snap up all the land whenever water/sewer is expanded or a new road planned?"

    Ever notice how supporters of mass transit claimit will pay for itself through increased development?

    What do you say to a guy whose land was taken for a road or power easement, and then gets downzoned (six consecutive times) to prevent his land from being used?

    It is OK for other s to use it, but not him?

    RH

  32. Groveton Avatar

    "What do you say to a guy whose land was taken for a road or power easement, and then gets downzoned (six consecutive times) to prevent his land from being used?".

    I'd say the guy should sue his municipality for illegally siezing property without fair compensation.

  33. Larry G Avatar

    " then you are going to kill the goose that laid the golden egg."

    do you mean like the Dulles Toll Road raising fares to pay for the 5 billion metro extension?

    tell me again how that goose dies?

    😉

  34. Larry G Avatar

    re: " fair compensation"

    ummm… when the same people who are taking your land decide what is fair…….

    especially when it comes to things known as "constructive" takings…

  35. Larry G Avatar

    upzonings and "free" money.

    Those who have money and access to it are some of the keenest observers of locality plans for expanding infrastructure.

    The name of the game is pretty simple.. look at the land that is planned to receive infrastructure and buy it ahead of the wave.

    and guess what?? the State of Virginia has made it even easier because they've allowed any county that wants to – to REDUCE even further that taxes by allowing such properties to be put into a nifty little category called "land use" which basically says.. if you have a large enough parcel of land and you're not "using" it for anything that the taxes on it will be among the lowest in the county.

    Of course..you've got to have money to start with but if you do.. and you're good at paying attention to when/where infrastructure will be expanded.. you can double or triple your money…. even before you get that upzone.

    And talk about stealing from property owners – guess which property owners finance these govt-endorsed land speculation scams? the folks who just pay their taxes on their properties without a tax break.

  36. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Development is simply a burden on just about everyone who doesn't have a piece of the action.

    I attended the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority's "density worship" session in June. One of the speakers was from a business organization on Long Island. His group promotes dense urban development as a key to Long Island's economic success, but has been running into community opposition. (Not dissimilar to what the President is finding vis a vis health care reform.)

    The speaker's argument was the community should support dense development as it will provide more jobs and added taxes. When asked what one of his big hurdles to success, the inability to persuade local residents to pay higher taxes and to accept a radical change their communities to get the dense development.

    Yah! I thought it was internally contradictory too.

    Again there are parallels to health care reform. Reform, be it urbanization or health care, requires many people to pay more or to give up something they have in exchange for the bulk of the benefits perceived to go elsewhere. That is not to say that everyone likes what we have or they have today.

    But it's pretty hard to persuade people to pay more for someone else's benefits. And that's what real estate development is all about.

    TMT

  37. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    To really see the American Dream amended, read the story of Ryan Jenkins: it doesn;t even end in America.

    RH

  38. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Development is simply a burden on just about everyone who doesn't have a piece of the action."

    I just don't understand this kind of sentiment.

    YOU ALREADY GOT YOUR PIECE OF THE ACTION.

    YOU KNEW WHEN YOU PURCHAsED YOUR PROPERTY THAT OTHERS HAD UNDEVELOPED LAND.

    WHERE DOES YOUR RIGHT COME FROM TO UNILATERALLY ELIMINATE WHAT YOU GOT AND THEY DON'T HAVE?

    Granted, The Tysons case is in a class by iteslf. But what about the poor slob, like my brother, who bought and paid good money for a proerty prospective of three building rights, only to have them eliminated by a setback change.

    HOW IS HIS (EVENTUAL) DEVELOPMENT SUDDENLY A BURDEN ON ANYONE WHO IS NOT PART OF HIS ACTION? eSPECIALLY SINCE THEY KNEW IT WAS IN THE (POTENTIAL) OFFING WHEN THEY BOUGHT THEIR (DEVELOPED) PROPERTY?

    I'm sorry, I just don't get it. What I see is existing owners aggrandizing themselves at other peoples expense.

    It is stealing.

    RH

  39. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Look, I'd LOVE to prevent any development ever, anywhere. It can only improve the value of what I have.

    It is just that I have this ethical problem.

    RH

  40. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "I'd say the guy should sue his municipality for illegally siezing property without fair compensation."

    I would love to see that happen. Here is the problem. In order to sue you must first exhaust ALL of your adminsistrative options for ANY other use of your land. Otherwise you have no standing and your case is said to be "not ripe".

    Practically speaking that will take more than the rest of your life, and more money than you have.
    That is because the administrative process is specificaly designed with that rule in mind.

    My county supervisor once told me in so many words that the entire county zoning ordinance was designed to skate along just this side of what is called adminsitrave takings and snob zoning, jsut so that no one can get to court.

    That is why zoning appeals to the Supreme Court are so few and far between. The Supreme Court (justifiably) does not wish to get involved in local zoning spats.

    But, the Court has already ruled that just because you claim to be preventing some damage does not exempt you from paying for the damage youcause.

    And the Court has already ruled on the "bundle of sticks" doctrine that makes conservation easements possible.

    It is only a question of time until those two rulings collide, but during that time a lot of lives will be ruined.

    RH

  41. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    " "density worship" session in June. "

    That is an excellent decription.

    RH

  42. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "When asked what one of his big hurdles to success, the inability to persuade local residents to pay higher taxes and to accept a radical change their communities to get the dense development."

    Well, there you have it. Obviously he doesn't understand that the winners have to pay off the losers, such that there are no losers.

    You laugh about my "development lottery" idea, but what it does is make BOTH SIDES honest about what costs they are willing to accept in echange for what gains.

    End of problem.

    As it stands now, there is NO COST tothe naysayers for saying "NO" and there is NO COST to the developers for lying through their teeth.

    I think you go find a way to make market forces solve this problem. That involves making deals that both sides are satisfied with.

    The present process only guarntees satisfaction for whichever side is most proficient at warping the system.

    Warping the system to our own advantage isn't how we all come out most ahead.

    It is how we steal from each other.

    RH

  43. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "But it's pretty hard to persuade people to pay more for someone else's benefits. "

    And you don't think that if I get downzoned six times, that I am not paying for someone else's bensfits?

    The county officials even openly advertise as such. "Lets steal from the farmers, let THEM pay for twice as much as they get." In other places it is businesses tha get the gaff. It just happens that here, the business is farming, such as it is.

    But at least I'm glad to see that you understand why I am so hard to persuade why I should pay still more for other peoples benefits.

    That is progress.

    Now all we have to do is let the market discover the apporpriate costs for the benefits recieved. But that means that once you get a benefit, that you own it. The government will protect your property, and if the Tysons developers want it, then they will have to buy it, provided you are willing to sell.

    And the governments job will be to protect your right NOT to sell and NOT to have yur benefit stolen. It is after all, your property.

    RH

  44. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Again there are parallels to health care reform. Reform, be it urbanization or health care, requires many people to pay more or to give up something they have in exchange for the bulk of the benefits perceived to go elsewhere."

    So it is the perception that is the problem.

    A perception that is radically altered by millions spent by special interests.

    That perception is best occluded throught the clarity of a fair and honest market for those benefits.

    —————————

    I have a slogan for health care reform:

    No Pre-Existing Conditions.

    What we have now is rotten to the core and needs to be scrapped. Start with a blank piece of paper.

    RH

  45. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Just spoke to a frind whos son is between college and starting his first job this month.

    Had health insurance in college, willhave helath insurance once his job starts.

    But he has pre-existing conditions which no temprorary coaverage will handle.

    Sure enough, he has a crisis—Zap- $15 grand, out of pocket.

    Lots of people are happy with their health insurance and their halth care, which are two different things, we seem to forget.

    But that is because they have never had to really try to collect.

    As long as health insurance reform doesn't happen, I suggest you buy insurance stocks: they are among my most profitable. I figure as long as I can't collect on my insurance, I may as well get a piece fo the action.

    RH

  46. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Those who have money and access to it are some of the keenest observers …."

    That is how you get money.

    RH

  47. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "The name of the game is pretty simple.. look at the land that is planned to receive infrastructure and buy it ahead of the wave."

    If you can find such a place.
    There are more than 3000 jurisdictions that have some kind of "growth management" in place.

    Frequently, that means no new infrastructure.

  48. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "with regard to property rights – what is the mortgage interest deduction?

    are you not taking away the property of those who rent and giving it to those who buy?"

    —————————

    No.

    People who rent are aware of the rules before they choose to rent.

    Now, if you signed a long term lease, supposing you would never be able to buy, AND THEN the mortgage dedction was introduced,you would have a legitimate beef.

    You would be trapped in one contract under a pre-existing set of conditions, while the rule change might have mad it possible for you to own instead of rent.

    It matters not so much what the rules are, but how people are compensated when they change. Because the changes inevitably involve (or even create) property rights. Enforced compensation does not prevent change, it just helps insure that only changes which are actually for the public good occur.

    —————————-

    As for renters, absent a CHANGE in status, all of thei (potential) landlords play under the same deduction rules. They are competing against each other for the best tenants, and one way they do that is by passing along their tax savings in the form of lower rents.

    I can tell you to the penny, how much more my renters would have to pay, without the mortgage deduction.

    RH

  49. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Of course, the flip side is that no mortgage deduction would drastically lower the cost of homes and some renters might be able to afford one.

    Except that the lower valueations would increase the tax rates accordingly. Without the mortgage deduction you would pay more tax on the income you use to make your mortgage payment, and then yu would pay more tax on the home you bought.

    So maybe they lower the income tax rate accordingly, Just as they raise the property tax rate. Take money out of one pocket and put it in another.

    Thenthe question is whose pocket, and whose money. It all boils down to property rights.

    Who will you compensate for the wholesale fortune this stupid ida brings about. Without the mortgage deduction I would sell my rental house in a heartbeat, and so would everyone else, which would result in huge loses.

    Then I would go borrow a similar amount of money and invest it in some other business where interest is still a business expense.

    If yo really want to screw up a lot of people and promote a policy with zero net social benefit, just keep harping on this one.

    It is about as dumb as they come.

    RH

  50. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "the State of Virginia has made it even easier because they've allowed any county that wants to – to REDUCE even further that taxes by allowing such properties to be put into a nifty little category called "land use" which basically says.. if you have a large enough parcel of land and you're not "using" it for anything that the taxes on it will be among the lowest in the county."

    You obviously have no idea what youare talking about.

    You only get "land use" for land that is zoned AGricultural: land that you are NOT ALLOWED to use for anything else.

    Sure, I pay a low rate on the agricultural land – based on its land use – which does not provide enough money to pay any higher taxes.

    But, that is in additon to the taxes I pay at the same rate as anyone else on my house and two acres. The "low" land use tax is IN ADDITION to my regular taxes.

    If you think that is a tax "break" I'll trade tax bills with you, sight unseen.

    Not only that, but the barns, the hay storage facilities, the equipment sheds and anything else that isn't land gets taxed at residential rates. Even though none of that stuff (or the land) gets residential services.

    It would not be so bad if you at least got some agricultural services for your agricultural taxes.

    So, if you have some industrial zoned land you want to put in "land use", good luck. You will have to farm it at industrial tax rates for three years, before you are eligible. Then say you farm it for ten years (losing your shirt the whole time) to get that glorious "tax break". Finally, some industrial use comes up that pays too much to pass by, so you pull out of land use.

    You still owe full industrial taxes for five of the last ten years. Land use is a deferment, not a lower tax rate, and the deferment is subject to recovery if the use changes.

    Would you really want to pay industrial taxes on farmed land for eight years just to get a tax break for five?

    You would have to be stark raving nuts.

    And it is even worse than that.

    Suppose you have agriculturla land and you choose not to farm it.

    Then it is ALL taxed as residential, even though it is not "land used" as such. And you could pay full residential taxes on it forever, but it would still be zonewd agricultural. Just becasue you pay residential taxes doesn't mean you get to use it for residential purposes, other than you own.

    Therefore, from a practical standpoint, the name of the game is to farm it just enough so that you do not lose more from farming than you would pay in taxes if you didn't.

    Total Costs = Production Cost + External Cost + Government Costs.

    As far as the Total Costs for Ashby Glen are concerned, I can prove it: I've got the books.

    RH

  51. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I have a nice alliterative phrase about farming in Fauquier and what the county Fathers will do to you if you don't, but. I'll leave the formulation to your imagination.

    RH

  52. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Of course..you've got to have money to start with but if you do.. and you're good at paying attention to when/where infrastructure will be expanded.. "

    Complete and utter nonsense. You would have to have money AND a lot of time on yur hands while you don't care what that money earns. The get in and get out conditions would kill you.

    And, during all that time you would run the risk of being downzoned, six times.

    You would have to be freaking crazy. Land developers don't buy that land, they put an option on it, conin up frintgent on rezoning.

    RH

  53. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    OK, they might buy some land if their tax accountant says the need the mortgage interest break, and the development is a done deal anyway.

    Like in Fairfax County.

    RH

  54. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "guess which property owners finance these govt-endorsed land speculation scams? the folks who just pay their taxes on their properties without a tax break."

    Oh Brother. I think I'll vomit.

    Whatever samll taxes is paid on empty land is free money to the residentila sector. Pure and simple.

    They would like to keep it that way, and that is why the entry and exit criteria for land use are so steep.

    The folks ewho pay the taxes ontheir proerties "without a break" are the same ones who already recieved the "windfall" you are now complaining about. They already had their break.

    The reason the Government endorses these "land speculatin schemes" is because, as you have pointed out, the majority controls the government.

    In Fauquier, that means that 50,000 people lord it over 2000 farms, who havent got the votes to prevent being Fauqed.

    The land speculation scam is being run by those that have already developed. Improving their value at the cost of others. This isn;t even subject to debate. The studies are in and they shwo this to be the case in many locations.

    Supernormal reguations are imposed by the many, against a few, generally disguized as an effort to "save" what "we" have left.

    And the result is that those who have doenthe best jobv of saving the most for the longest, get penalized the most in the end.

    And then, whatever they do get away with is categorized as "windfall" profits.

    ————————–

    Let's suppose I get lucky, and someday the county lets me build another house. I'm going to have to pay back taxes onthat land as if it had been residential for the last five years, whenit was't.

    One proposal on the table is to increase that to ten years.

    Crap. Why not make it fifty years, or a hundred, just like flood plain was once 50 feet, then 100, then 400?

    How many years of back taxes at current rates for something I never had should I have to pay before someone concedes that my one new house, so graciously "granted" is not a "windfall"?

    RH

  55. Larry G Avatar

    " If yo really want to screw up a lot of people and promote a policy with zero net social benefit, "

    I am ALL FOR a policy that allows mortgage interest deduction on ONE HOME – you primary residence and cap the amount of the deduction to the median home prices in that region – AND your income.

    there is no social benefit to mortgage interest deductions on 2nd and 3rd homes and condos that cost 750K bought by folks who essentially bought a more expensive property roughly along the lines equivalent to how much interest they can write-off.

    As far as homes/apartments that are to be rented – allow interest deductions as business expenses – like do for anything that is a cost of doing business.

    If you limit the mortgage interests deduction the way I suggest – you'll discourage land speculation and if we had done this – we never would have had the housing meltdown that we did because the whole scam was based on one's ability to write off the ungodly mortgage interest fees….

  56. Larry G Avatar

    comparing health care to density issues…

    no.. don't buy this…at all…

    except on this – that in both cases – you have an advocate of one path trying to convince others that it is in their best interests to adopt the different recommended path.

    that part I agree with…

    but the rest.. no

    I do not hear anyone saying that our current single-payer heath care for those 65 and over – is a failure and that it needs to be shut down and turned back over to the private sector.

    nope.

    and even the claims about it being a failure is bogus to the core…

    if you take ANY private sector health insurance and project it's costs into the future – they will "fail" also if you use the same criteria that we use in saying that Medicare (or social security) will fail..

    and the reasons for both public and private care are the same:

    1. – people are living much longer than they use to

    2. – wheelchairs are cheaper than hip transplants and caskets are cheaper than lipitor

    if we judged EVERY health care system in the world on the same basis that we say that Medicare will fail – they ALL FAIL…

    and that's what the American People do not "get".

    their premiums have doubled since 2000 and will double again in 2010 and instead of 15% of our GDP – 25% will go to health care – if we don't reform.

    So what people want is their current situation – to not get worse –

    and that's not a choice but folks think it is…

    if you currently have health insurance – in the future – you will pay a LOT more for it and if you are one of the unlucky one's you will run out of benefits or get dropped as the private sector companies take steps to remain profitable…

    right now, 20% of those who have insurance – consume 80% of the premiums….

    at some point – people have to recognize that we pay twice as much per capita and yet we are dead last in life expectancy when compared to other "socialized" health care systems.

    when compared to the world – we pay twice as much and rank lower than some countries that don't even offer universal care to their population…

    I see private health insurance like I do land speculation…

    if you get good at knowing the rules.. and get good at knowing how to cherry pick – you can make good profits – but those profits come at the expense to others.

  57. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Well said, Larry.

    I suspect that there will not be a government option health insurance provision in this legislation. I suspect we will see some reforms concerning portability, deniability, and prior conditions.

    I hope we break the strnglehold of state control and get a uniform national set of rules, allowing the insurance companies to go national, but I doubt that will happen.

    After that it will be up to the insurance companies to make good on all the claims they are using in the present advertising wars.

    But if, ten years from now our insurance situation is still FUBAR then the insurance compnies may have committed hara kiri.

    This is the last chance for the conservatives to come up with something that they think will work and they can live with. If we have to go through this again someday, they probably won't like the results.

    RH

    RH

  58. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "I am ALL FOR a policy that allows mortgage interest deduction on ONE HOME – you primary residence and cap the amount of the deduction to the median home prices in that region – AND your income."

    What difference does it make how manyyou have? If you hae more than one you are landlord and an investor. If you invest in ANY other business your borrowing costs are a legitimate business expense. If every business gets gets it except property businesses, who in their right mind would invest?

    This is like the hummingbirds at my feeders: they don't want and can;t use all that sugar water, but they will STILL fight to make sure no one else gets it. Jealousy and greed are basic motivators for this kind of thought, is all I can figure.

    I'm perfecly happy to let someone else deduct the interest on all the money some bank is willing to give them. But it should be the banks risk, not mine.

    RH

    RH

  59. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "there is no social benefit to mortgage interest deductions on 2nd and 3rd homes and condos that cost 750K bought by folks who essentially bought a more expensive property "

    That is your claim, but I don't think it is reality. My brother and lots of other people make their living by maintaining and safeguarding such properties.

    The way to change the problem you percieve is to lower the capital gains tax. Let people get their money out. Otherwise they have not much real choice but to have more and larger homes.

    But recognize, after they get that money out, it still has to be invested in something. You kill one bubble and all the money will run to the "next big thing".

    Maybe that is China. Would you rather see it invested at home?

    RH

  60. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "you'll discourage land speculation and if we had done this – we never would have had the housing meltdown "

    It is only a a partial cause. some of that money would never have been available if the lenders had not been able to shed the risk.

    Or if investors had not plowed so much money in. But the money has to go someplace, and since we no longer manufacture better mousetraps in the US…….

    What is the difference between a meltdown and a correction?

    RH

  61. Larry G Avatar

    mortgage interest deduction is forgiving a tax – on the premise that it serves a benefit to society.

    business costs – ditto – promotes business investment

    you don't need to mix the two.

    for rentals – let those folks write off the interest the same way they would on other borrowing for equipment.

    for ownership – the societal benefit being home ownership for families and individuals – limit the benefit to ONE HOUSE at the median price and let everyone else decide where they want to put their money and whether they want to invest it or use it to buy stuff.

    we do not benefit society by giving tax breaks – over and above – what is the basic societal benefit of a home to live in….

    this is how we got into this economic mess we are in now – when we used the mortgage interest deduction as a back-door to speculative investing..

    would have never happened if we limited the mortgage deduction to ONE HOME and capped at the median home price.

    we benefit no one when we set up a system that can be turned into a ponzi scheme for the stupid because in the end – their stupidness threatens to swamp everyone…

    this is as dumb IMHO as the willful lack of understanding associated with the health care realities.

    but I digress.

  62. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I don't see how you separate the two.

    Don't you have to own a rental?

    Are you talking about just the people who own two (or more) homes and never rent them? You think THEY are responsible for the housing bust?

    Are you talking about places like Blue Heron Farm?

  63. Larry G Avatar

    I'm talking about 2nd and 3rd homes and vacation homes and condos – owned as investments with essentially subsidized interest on money borrowed.

    It's okay to own homes as an investment as long as it is taxed as an investment and not given favorable tax reductions on the theory that it is a "social benefit".

    I'm surprised at you RH. One of the problems with the idea of the government getting involved in health care is that it is said that we cannot afford it.

    Well.. here we are saying in essence that we have made a choice as to what "social benefit" is more important – health care for those with pre-existing conditions or the social benefit that comes from giving discriminatory favorable tax treatment to homes as investments.

    we've made that choice.

    we've chosen to subsidize flood insurance for vacation homes rather than subsidize health insurance for those who can't get it.

    we make choices – and those choices do have consequences.

  64. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    What's wrong with a public option? Both Social Security and Medicare are almost broke. Why would we want to create another public entitlement that will also go broke?

    Also, given a chance to dump their own medical insurance plans, which a public option would offer, too many businesses would do so.

    Third, government programs quickly become employment empires. We need to have government employees and pay them fairly. But we cannot create government jobs that don't end.

    Example one. Al Gore's Reinventing Government effort recommended issuing Social Security Checks on staggered basis instead of on a single date. There were significant cost savings. But the HHS union screamed and the jobs were saved. Social Security checks are mailed once a month instead of on a staggered basis.

    A group of citizens in Fairfax County recommended that duplication of PR functions at both a centralized basis and within each department be ended. The County ignored the recommendation, raising both real estate taxes and classroom size.

    Today, Fairfax County contracts for emergency medical officer services. But both Arlington and Loudoun Counties have an emergency medical officer on the payroll. Fairfax County wants one too. The additional cost over contracting would be in the range of $300 – $400 K annually. Empire building.

    Soon the Government Insurance company would add and add payroll that could never go away.

    Try regulation of the private insurance companies and authorize nonprofit membership insurance co-ops. Skip the new agency. It would likely be as screwed up as DHS.

    TMT

  65. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "I'm talking about 2nd and 3rd homes and vacation homes and condos – owned as investments with essentially subsidized interest on money borrowed."

    Yes, and those are generally rentals – at least part time. No one owns three or more homes without renting them out unless they have so much money that they jsut don't care. I don;t think you can blame those handful of ultra rich for the housing meltdown, and everyone else is a landlord, with money invested and borrowed in their business, just like anyone else.

    I don't see your distinction, except to a small extent, and that isn't enough to cause the meltdown or justify screwing around with the mortgage deduction.

    It doesn't do anyone any favors, not the landlords, not the renters, certainly. And the ultra rich probably don't care they have managers who will suggest here they should invest if homes don;t cut it.

    RH

  66. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "as long as it is taxed as an investment "

    How do you think investments are taxed? I nvest $50k in a new tractor, I get to deduct the interest. I invest $50 in a vacation mobile home, I get to deduct the interest.

    If the value goes down I get to depreciate it, if it goes up I pay capital gains.

    ????

  67. Larry G Avatar

    re: public option – Medicare going broke…

    TMT – if you used the same criteria to judge the private plans – they would also, without changes, go broke in the future.

    So they have to control costs and of the various options to control costs – the private plans have chosen to throw under the bus – the folks that cost them the most…

    Medicare can't do that …they must find a way to contain costs without dumping the most expensive users…

    the private sector is ALSO going to either reduce benefits or increase premiums – in the future so they won't go broke either.

    It's a false conclusion.

    ALL healthcare plans in the current environment – if they just did nothing – would go broke as Medicare will – if they don't take action.

  68. Larry G Avatar

    re: deductions for the "business" of owning multiple homes

    that's not a business.

    it's like a business of 50 people having 200 cars in their fleet that they try to write off as a business expense.

    no mortgage interest deductions on homes not occupied by the owners and no subsidized flood insurance for – businesses.

    one bite at the flood insurance apple – you get your payout – then if you rebuild – no subsidized insurance and no mortgage interest deduction unless it is a valid business where you have to be showing a profit over some number of years.

  69. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Both Social Security and Medicare are almost broke. Why would we want to create another public entitlement that will also go broke?"

    First of all, neary every government program, state local and federal is on the verge of "going broke". That's because the JOB is to spend all the money we give them. I don;t see how the first setnece leads to the second, and I dont see the point in railing against Medicare when it is such a popular program.

    I don't know how close you are to retirement, but once you no longer have a job, you probably have no health insurance, or a lot less. Are you really willing to give up onthe option of medicare and go naked in your elderly years? To throw yourself on the tender mercies of health insurors who are in bed with their stae regulators?

    "I don't want any government run helathcae, but don't touch my medicare."

    Whew.

    Second, how is a public option to BUY insurance an entitlement? If I could buy it from a private insuror at any price then I might not need a public option. But since I will NEVER be able to buy insurance on the "free market" that counts as a market failure, and fixing market failures (like developers not paying their full costs) is a legitimate government task.

    I don't think we ae going to get a public option so I woldn't worry about it too much. But if I really thought that a public option was a bad thing,then I would want to make sure that the other health insurance reforms work well.

    If we do a half ass job and it does not work, then the public option will be back with a vengeance next time. Conservatives ought to be working towords compromise that will work and really improve the system, but that isn't what I am hearing from them.

    Just dire warnings and forboding like yours "Why would you want something that is just going to go broke?" without any real answers or suggestions for a better way to fix our problems. Just not THAT one.

    RH

  70. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "too many businesses would do so. "

    Good, we need to divorce the ability to have health insurance from the condition of having a job.

    We got this way by an accident of history, and it is time to fix the damage.

    RH

  71. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Third, government programs quickly become employment empires. "

    you mean like metro or high speed rail?

    What if you have a government job for work that never ends, like national defense, or caring for our elderly?

    RH

  72. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "There were significant cost savings. But the HHS union screamed and the jobs were saved."

    how is that the governments fault? Sounds like the union fault to me.

    RH

  73. Larry G Avatar

    yes – here:

    " Presumption of profit. An activity is presumed carried on for profit if it produced a profit in at least 3 of the last 5 tax years, including the current year."

    http://www.irs.gov/publications/p535/ch01.html

    so if you own 2nd and 3rd homes and you rent them – the rent has to exceed your interests and other expenses…

    then it's a real business but we do not subsidize flood insurance for real businesses.

    that's a legitimate business cost and in fact.. if you subsidize it then you are encouraging businesses that are not economically viable.

  74. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "and authorize nonprofit membership insurance co-ops."

    I'll agree that these might be a useful idea, but why do they need to be authorized? If the insurance companies wanted them, they could have had them long ago" let any organization, church or what have you as a group and offer them group insurance.

    This is a good ancillary idea, but I don't see it as a real problem solver. Most groups won't be able to afford insurance any more than most businesses.

    On the one hand you argue that we can't afford this and government is going to wind up cutting you off.

    Cut you off from what? Something yu don't have anyway? Something youhave no alternative offer for?

    Your plan to prevent the government from cutting you off is to act preemptively and cut off the plan before it has a chance.

    Net result looks the same to me: no insurance.

    RH

  75. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "re: deductions for the "business" of owning multiple homes

    that's not a business."

    Of course it is. You invest in it, work on it and draw money from it: its a business. It sure as heck is on Martha's Vineyard. People depend on their guest ouses and second homes, even their garage apartments.

    Now, if you have enough money to own multiple homes which are yours only to use as you please, and you never have to care if they produce a cent, well, I don;t think you are the type of person contributing much to a financial meltdown.

    RH

  76. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Presumption of profit."

    Yes, but all you have to show is that you are making a realistic attempt to reach profitability. Lots of businesses are not profitable for five or ten years. There is more to the presumption of profit edict than you have let on.

    Rentals in particular tend to be cash negative for a number of years, until the rents climb enough topay the mortgage.

    RH

  77. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I don't think you et to just decide that the mortgage deduction is or isn't a net benefit.

    It either is or isn't and we either know the answer and act accordingly or we take a guess. In which case there is a fifty percent chance we are flat wrong and a 99% chance wer are not as "right" as we could have been.

    It is a mathematical answer, not a philosophical or political one.

    —————————

    What median house value? Are you suggesting that someone in Penthouse New York is entitled to a bigger deduction ust becasue he lives someplace expensive?

    You act as if someone who has two houses and pays two mortgages is somehow taking tax money out of your personal pocket. It is jummingbird behavior. So what if a guy lives in Trailer Park, Arkansas and has six homes?

    Those few peole with two or more private homes they keep entirely for personal use are NOT the cause of the mortgage meltdown.

    Blue Heron Farm, where the Obamas are cost $20 million and it rents for $35,000 a week. If it rents 12 weeks a summer it will take 50 years to break even, but it is still a business, not a private home.

    What do you suppose the interest deduction on that place is?

    RH

  78. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I was wrong, it will take fifty years to break even assuming the interest rate is zero.

    RH

  79. Larry G Avatar

    need to be clear about what the fundamental purpose of the mortgage interest rate deduction is about

    verses what expense write-offs for businesses is about…

    we conflated the two with home buying and selling.

    we used the interest rate deduction to induce ordinary people to believe that buying and selling houses was a way to make money….by depending on the mortgage interest deduction as essentially a subsidy.

    You can show a profit on a rental if you use the accrual method of accounting – as you should by showing annual expenses of which interest is one; then insurance, maintenance, etc….

  80. Larry G Avatar

    Medicare goes broke for the same reasons that private health insurance will go broke if they don't equalize premiums with benefits.

    Any private health care plan – if you look ten years down the road and assume no changes in premiums or benefits will face the same problem that Medicare does.

    there is too much anti-govt rhetoric that really does ignore some basic facts and realities.

    the other main difference between Medicare (and any other prospective single payer/public systems) is that unlike the Private systems, the govt does not/would not find savings by shedding folks with expensive health issues.

    when are we going to be honest with ourselves about things like this instead of believing the anti-govt rhetoric?

    what this has degraded to is this:

    Whoever can tell the best lies to the people in the middle and the elderly (best meaning they believe them) …will win…

    if single payer/public option is so wrong then why have not the other industrialized countries who have had years and years of experience with their plans – abandoned them and come back to the American Plan?

  81. Larry G Avatar

    The private health care plans have, what is essentially, a monopoly on insurance right now much like the days of the Robber Barons and Tea Pot Dome.

    Yes.. there are multiple companies – but there is no competition.

    You get whatever plan your company arranges – not the one you'd choose – if you had choice.

    We keep hearing from the folks on the right that there are "lots" of ways to fix this problem..

    … but where have these folks been for the last 10 years?

    if we had "lots" of ways to address the problems, why haven't we?

    the answer is simple.

    they have a monopoly and there is no reason to change unless someone threatens their monopoly.

    so the folks who are in favor o the status quo – they play "rope-a-dope" where they continue to blather on and on about what we "might" do verses what we must do.

    what this debate proves to me is the lengths that folks will go to – to maintain the status quo.

    that's not leadership.

  82. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "You can show a profit on a rental if you use the accrual method of accounting …"

    Why would you WANT to show a profit? Then you get to pay taxes on it.

    Most (newly purchased) rental properties do not show a profit, primarily because of the depreciation. Your profit does not depend on the accounting method chosen.

    You may have the depreciation recaptured later, if you sell, but most rentals are not sold, and they show losses for long periods of time. Eventually of course the depreciation runs out and the property starts throwing off serious cash flow – which you shelter by investing in another property.

    We have interest deductions for business because it is a legitimate business expense, whether your business is real estate or not. We have to extend that to homeowners or else landlords will have a serious advantage and no one will own a home.

    If you have a mortgage payment of $1100 a month and it is mostly interest your deduction is around $250. Compared to the cost of a $250,000 home, that is a pretty small incentive. And averaged over 350 million people it raises your taxes by 7 times ten to the minus 14 cents (if you insist on thinking of it that way, which is probably incorrect).

    It is like arguing about how much of your taxes get wasted on aircraft carriers. What are we talking about, one bolt?

    Even so, it is hard to get out of a home without paying a pretty big tax bill, and unless you relocate to a lower cost area, you will rollover the costs anyway.

    But the runup in home values meant that some people could move up in home size at relatively little apparent cost or change in monthy payment.

    The hidden risk was that by refinancing into a newer and larger home, they now had a much larger downside risk. Lots of people did not appreciate that, and anyway with home prices rising the risk is (was) small.

    Your first argument is that the mortgage interest dedction is bad, bu we know that it isn't, otherwise landlords have a huge advantage.

    Then it is bad for oversized or second homes, even if these are often used as businesses.

    Your third argument that those people buying homes, especially second homes for private use are responsible for the meltdown. This is obvously nonsense.

    What this boils down to is that you think that YOUR taxes are increased because someone else gets a bigger deduction than you do. You think YOUR taxes are increased becasuse someone else drives more than you do.

    This is hummingbird behavior: drive everyone else away, even if you have all you need.

    You have the same opportunity to drive as anyone else, and you don;t mind going cross country to take that opprotunity. You have the same opportunity to get a mortgage deduction.

    Relax and get a life. Why be a curmugeon over what OTHER people do? just because someone else gets a tax break on one thing does not man that YOUR taxes are higher.

    The question isn't where do the taxes NOT come from. You have to look at the taxes that are paid and decide if THAT is equitable. If it is then the mortgage interest deduction makes zero difference.

    RH

  83. Larry G Avatar

    I'm in favor of landlords not have an advantage on ONE owner-occupied residence.

    I'm NOT in favor of people using the mortgage interest deduction as a back-door subsidy to evade legitimate taxes… on consumption or folks using unprofitable business propositions to evade taxes either.

    Ray – when folks evade taxes and game the system – we end up with things like the current health care dilemma where the issue becomes that we don't have the money to fund it…

    …because so many folks are already gaming the tax system…

    you cannot have it both ways guy.

    you want folks to pay their taxes to fund things that benefit society but you also want them to be able to evade taxes….that are needed to fund those things.

  84. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    " but you also want them to be able to evade taxes….that are needed to fund those things."

    You are not evading taxes if you are using a legitimate and authorized tax deduction.

    Even the IRS ssays in so many words that they want you to use every legitimate deduction avaialble to you.

    This does no harm whatsover to society as long as the programs the tax deductions support provide a net positive benefit to begin with: the more people that use the deduction the more net benefit.

    Using the deductions does not increase the ramaining tax burden or the tax burden on others. It does nothing to make the tax burden more inequitable. However, all of your proposals would do so.

    As long as there is a net benefit the prograams are self funding and no new overall costs are incurred: you may see an increase in taxes that is offset by some other savings. We paid a bunch for the highway system but it no longer costs us 12 weeks to cross the continent.

    RH

  85. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "I'm in favor of landlords not have an advantage on ONE owner-occupied residence."

    Jeez, if it is owner ocupied it is not a business and he is not a landlord. The owner gets the personal mortgage interest deduction but not the business one.

    Unless he rents out half of his howu in which case he can prorate.

    But for ALL of his other houses, no matter how many or few, interest is a legitimate expense just like any other business.

    That leaves us with just the people who take mortgage interest dedcutions on huge mansions or multiple private homes, all for personal use.

    Yes, for them it is a goood deal. But it simply does not follow that it is a bad deal for the rest of us and we have to stop those hummingbirds from feeding at the trough.

    RH

  86. Larry G Avatar

    I plead guilty to being a curmudgeon on too many govt scams created in the name of doing a public good and then saying we don't have the money to do the other things we need to do.

    It's not the governments job to provide you with what boils down to entitlements and borderline legalized scams on the premise that if something is a social good – that a whole lot of it is better social good.

    Let's get back to a means-tested flat tax – and everything else is taxed on a consumption basis.

    Health care should be done like social security.

    Everyone should have to pay into a basic system and everyone gets basic coverage and a basic pension

    and everyone is then free to buy "up"… put more away in 401s and buy supplemental upgrades on health insurance.

    but everyone should have to pay into a basic plan and everyone should be eligible for basic care.

    and if they show up at the ER..kick them out…and tell them to go to the clinic.

  87. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "… but where have these folks been for the last 10 years?"

    How about the last 60 years?

    I have a friend whose son was between college and starting day of his first job when he had a health crisis. Zap, no insurance and none avaialble because it was a pre-existing condition.

    What are the opponents of health care reform thinking? Are they so opposed to anything that comes from a Democratic administration that they are willing to shoot themselves in the foot?

    How can Senators and Legislators that have their own private federal health care system stand up and say they are opposed to federal health care without looking like blithering idiots incapable of seeing the irony?

    Why dont the conservatives understand that getting healthcareoff the back of business would be the greatest give they can give to business?

    Their position makes no sense, and it is making them look bad, as if they haven;t already done enough in that department.

    RH

  88. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "on too many govt scams created in the name of doing a public good and then saying we don't have the money to do the other things we need to do."

    OK so we haven't done a good enough job of cost benefit analysis.

    We are never going to have all the money to do all the things we neeed to do, but we can get more of them done and get more benefit from them if we do only the most cost effective ones first. This investment will create more opportunity and more income at less cost, which will free up the restof the money we need for other things sooner.

    But instead we define the "things we need to do" based on our own political and social preferences, and we work to elbow other things which might be more cost effective out of our way using special interests and power politics.

    This not only hurts ourselves, and helps guarntee we won;t have money "for the other things" at a very fundamental it amounts to stealing. It is a claim of superior property rights in that it is OK to spend other people's money on what we want, but not spend our money on what they want.

    That is human and hummingbird nature, but it still doesn't make sense.

    RH

  89. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Let's get back to a means-tested flat tax – and everything else is taxed on a consumption basis."

    How do we get back to something we never had?

    By means tested flat tax I assume you mean that the really poor don't have to pay. You can't squeeze blood out of a stone.

    What you have then is a graduated tax with one tier.

    As for the consumption basis, fist thing you will have is people claiming some consumption is more injurious and demanding various taxes agaisnt various things they don't like: furs, cigarettes, gas guzzlers.

    Next thing you would have is a proliferaion of people like me that grow, make, or build much of what the need. Under you plan I could build all the stuff I want, like my hay barn, and not have to then turn around and get taxed on my own productivity?

    Cool.

    And what about things that you use without consuming, like real estate? No taxes there?

    I think you are missing the point. We will need a certain amount of money, and at the end of the day it is going to have to come from more or less the same places.

    We can choose any system we want for getting that money, but at the end of the day we are still taking someone's money and they ae not going to be happy about it.

    All we can do is make that taking as equitable as possible. But at the same time, we cannot take from those who have nothing, and we are going to have to take more from those that have the most: that's where the money is.

    So you start off with a situation no one likes. All you can do is try to mollify them by pointing out that government CAN do some things for them they cannot do themselves, like national defense. Government CAN work to protect your property, and one way to do that is to make it a basic priority that we only spend money where the payback greater than the input. Projects that have a demonstrable net public benefit, financed in such a way that there are no losers as a result of the plan.

    That means we have to recognize what is government stealing and fight it tooth and nail. And that means you need to have more and better property rights.

    Which is really what a cry for a flat tax is all about: take what you absolutely need, and let me spend the rest as I see fit, or not. Let me keep my property.

    OK

    What about the money you don't spend? You go buy mutual fund shares or government bonds: is that consumption that gets taxed?

    Like I said, we spend too much worrying about what we think someone else "gets". The only thing that matters is what we pay and what we get for it. That might look like two sides of the same coin, but it isn't. Just because your neighbor gat a better deal at the car dealer doesn't mean you didn't get a fair deal.

    RH

  90. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "…on the premise that if something is a social good – that a whole lot of it is better social good."

    But isn't this essentially the argument of environmentalists? If clean is good, then cleaner is better?

    After decades of fighting over the PCB cleanup in the Hudson, it turns out that (predictably) the cleanup is releasing more PCB's into the environment than leaving them buried would.

    Now, after decades of claiming this has to be done because PCB's are so dangerous, the EPA is in the embarassing position of having to reassure those exposed to the cleanup that the levels are not dangerous.

    The whole point of my argument is that what you need is a sytem of feedback loops wherin you agree on how to measure the social benefit, and then not spend more than it is worth.

    But we don't do that: we just claim that "our" favorite social benefit has infinite worth, that not handling it will result in a crisis, catastrophe, or gross discrimination.

    The way to fight that isn't to fight all spending or assume that all government spending is bad: it is to set up systems wherby we can agree on what is good: no feedback loop, no legislation.

    We have that loop now, in the election process, but the feedback is too slow and has far too little authority: it is like trying to turn a ship with an oar.

    In that respect we need to be more likete hummingbird: when he needs to feed he zooms up to the trough without hesitation. But when he is full he is out of there, zoom, back to his tree, because he can't afford to expend the energy hovering around.

    But let someone else approach his trough and he will waste energy like crazy.

    We ought to be smarter than that.

    RH

  91. Larry G Avatar

    never enough money….

    this true.

    It's about priorities

    and right now – we choose to prioritize subsidies for various and sundry perceived "social goods" while choosing to not subsidize health care.

    you cannot have it both ways.

    If you want your mortgage interest deduction, bogus business expenses, subsidized flood insurance.. then you'll have to give up health care.

    so make your choice.

    the folks in the other industrialized countries pay higher taxes than us – and that higher tax goes into universal health care and there are no scams for them to evade those taxes.

    moral of the story:

    if you want a system that allows you to evade taxes, then be prepared to not have some of the things that taxes would pay for – like universal health care.

    that's the argument right now – that we cannot "afford" it.

    the only way to "afford" it is to cut some of these scams…

    we'd have the same situation with Social Security if we did not have a mandatory FICA tax.

    it's basically an enforced savings plan to provide those who will not be responsible with a bare-minimum safety net.

    We need to do the same approach with health care just like we now do with Medicare.

    Everyone pays into it – no exceptions and if you make more, you pay more.

    then.. if people are really going to get the rump up in the air about this – you guarantee them that when they retire they can have it all back if they want to go bare on health care.

    Most folks come out way ahead on SS and most folks would come out way ahead on health care also.

  92. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "It's about priorities

    and right now – we choose to prioritize subsidies for various and sundry perceived "social goods" while choosing to not subsidize health care."

    So, what do you do if it turns out that some bogus business expense provides more social benefit at less cost than health care does?

    Maybe, it turns out that by having (even some,not all) employer provided health care (which is a bogus deductible business expense) that we get better overall health care than we would with a full government sytem. It is a higher net benefit for the cost.

    Then what do you do?

    You keep the employer system.

    BUT

    you recognize that it is not apples to apples becasue not everyone is covered under the two options being compared.

    SO NOW

    you figure out what it will cost to make sure the losers (those without health insurance) are adequately compensated by those that do. You tax employer provided health insurance to do this, and provide them with a government insurance plan withthe proceeds.

    AND THEN

    you compare the costs of the combined employer + government system and see if it is STILL cheaper and provides better benefits than an all government plan.

    AND LATER

    having established the criteria and a baseline, you go back and re-eveluat periodically to see if it still makes sense or not.

    IN OTHER WORDS

    how do you establish priorities if not by net public benefit?

    And isn't this exactly what is raining all the hysteria about the (so-called and non-existent) death boards? That "net public benefit" will be taken (reducto ad absurdium) to the individual level and someone (ELSE) will decide that (the cost of saving) YOUR individual life is not a net public benefit?

    ————————–

    So here we have a bunch of people claiming we "can't afford" health care or the government doesn't know how to run it by pointig out (hysterically) that if we do this someone might try to figure out what it costs.

    You gotta love the way these people think: they want to minimze the costs by eliminating the benefit.

    Which is a long, long way from minimizing the cost benefit ratio.

    Which is how you really set priorities.

    —————————–

    The idea that you cannot have health care because you have a morgage deduction is bogus. If the mortgage deduction itself provides a net social benefit (And it MUST, or we would not have it, right?) then IT ISN'T COSTING US ANYTHING. WE ARE MAKING MONEY OFF IT.

    YOU might not be because YOUR house is paid for, but that does not make you a "loser" in this policy and therefore one who could collect. That is because you ALREADY took your deduction.

    But at a social level, if the mortgage dedction isn't providing a benefit it should be scrapped, regardless of what happens with health care.

    RH

    RH

  93. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Suppose both mortgage deduction and health care provide a net public benefit.

    Your argument is that they both have costs and since government only has so much money we need to pick and choose.

    Why does government only have so much money? Because we won't give it to them.

    Why won't we give it? Because everyone knows government can't do anything right, and they always have runaway costs.

    But, jeez, if they are both providing a public benefit, they are returning more than they cost, then that is exactly the argument that says government OUGHT to increase its expenditures.

    Which is a fundamental problem with conservatives arguing for less government expenditure, no matter what the costs.

    MAYBE at some point of diminishing return you no longer get more benefit for your costs. Then your argument makes sense, but only AFTER you break the gong in condition: health care and mortgage deduction provide a net benefit.

    Conservatives simply assume there is no benefit, and argue from there.

    ————————–

    What happened in the housing market. was that the benefits no longer matched the costs, sure enough.

    But the housing market "costs" include a WHOLE lot more stuff than the mortgage deduction, so to blame lack of health care on the mortgage deduction is a faulty argument.

    RH

  94. Larry G Avatar

    RH – we pay twice as much per capita for health insurance and this is counting in that number the folks who have no insurance.

    it's not just the mortgage deduction… it's the whole enchilada of "write-offs" that allow many to essentially not pay taxes – proportional to their income level.

    and we have made choices – and not only is health care affected but so is transportation and infrastructure … rest areas… etc…

    we do make these choices – and then we whine about taxes being too high and crumbling infrastructure and a lack of adequate health care.

    like I said – you can't have it both ways…

    concept that the govt can't do nothing right?

    BOGUS!

    where were you be if the govt did not ride herd on the drug companies, food suppliers, seat belts, banks, homeland security, the VA, and much much more including the military which we say is the best in the world.

    How can the govt be so competent for things like FDIC and Predator UAV drones and Humvees but not other things?

    "we" are a schizo society when it comes to Govt.

    It's "incompetent" when it does thing we don't think it should be doing… but then we take for granted that our bank accounts are virtually iron-clad insured… wanna turn that over to the Wall Street guys?

    How about the air traffic control system?

    want to let the private sector get involved with making that function less expensive and more efficient?

  95. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "if you want a system that allows you to evade taxes, then be prepared to not have some of the things that taxes would pay for – like universal health care."

    You are not "EVADING taxes" if the system says you don't have to pay taxes on certain things.

    You assume that because there is a deduction for something it would otherwise be taxed.

    Instead, if we eliminated the deductions we might have a lower rate, and just be taxed differently. Maybe in a way that has less social value.

    Take your flat tax plus consumption. If I go borrow monwy for a mortgage, that isn't consumption and so my interest wouln;t be taxed.

    The only reason to argue for a flat tax plus consumption is that we figure it would save us money. But if we still need the same money for the same programs we need the same total amount.

    That means that at least MOST of us would have to beleive that WEsave money at someone else's expense – stealing in other words.

    And whose expense would that have to be? The rich folks, so it works out the same a a graduated tax anyway, more or less.

    We don;t have a system that lests us EVADE taxes. We have a system that says it is more important to pay taxes on some things than others: presumably for some social value gained.

    A flat tax would throw away all that social gain, but if we wanted it we would have to pay for it some other way: like a higher basic tax rate. Then we can pay for thos socail benefits in hard cash: each of us.

  96. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "How about the air traffic control system?

    want to let the private sector get involved with making that function less expensive and more efficient?"

    Air traffic control is private in France and some other countries,and there is talk of taking it private here.

    Of course, where to get the money to pay those private companies is still a tax.

    RH

  97. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "RH – we pay twice as much per capita for health insurance and this is counting in that number the folks who have no insurance."

    Sounds like a market failure to me. A legitiamte funtion of government is to prevent or correct market failures. It is an extension of the government duty to protect private property.

    If that is worth doing it is worth doing and whatever else we do makes no difference. If you have to pay child support you pay child support: never mind she is also getting support from three or for other fathers for other children.

    ——————————–

    "it's not just the mortgage deduction… it's the whole enchilada of "write-offs" that allow many to essentially not pay taxes – proportional to their income level."

    Again, you assume the write offs mean that you are not paying some tax you would pay otherwise. More to the point you are assuming that someone ELSE (specifically wealthy people) would be paying more.

    But the rule is there has to be a net social gain and NO LOSERS. It is one thing to take more from rich people for defense and local safety: they have more to protect, so they are not losers in the deal.

    Otherwise you have to show that the people you are taking the money from somehow come out ahead.
    Right now we give them a nice tax evasion (er, deduction) for buying a new wing in the hosital.

    The way you have this written, it just sounds like you think it is OK to take from wealthy people, more than we have already agreed.

    No wonder they hate liberals.

    RH

  98. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "concept that the govt can't do nothing right?

    BOGUS!"

    I agree.

    It could do a lot better on some things. We need better metrics and more enforcement of them.

    RH

  99. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Which would you rather have, FDIC / SEC, or Bernie Madoff?

    OOPS, that's right, we got BOTH.

    RH

  100. Larry G Avatar

    none-the-less.. the anti-gov rhetoric is schizoid.

    the private sector is totally profit driven even if it can and does economically harm the customer.

    Go check the recalls page.

    but the anti-gov people will say that the fact that some things that should have been caught and recalled and were down is PROOF that the govt is incompetent… ergo.. they can not be trusted to do other stuff.

    and the idea that we drop the gov function of forcing recalls is never pursued… because.. in the end.. we really do want the govt paying attention…

    so we have this concept that virtually anything that the govt does that it does not have a perfect record of doing – is proof positive that it ought not to be doing it.

    Medicare will go broke – ergo the Govt is a failure at Medicare.

    Well.. if you took any private sector health care plan and projected it 10 years into the future and assumed no changes in premiums and coverage – guess what? they go broke also.

    But do we call the Private Sector incompetent?

    no….

    because BOTH the Govt with Medicare AND the Private Sector must take action to prevent BOTH plans from going bankrupt.

    But.. if the Govt cuts benefits …it is "rationing" and "interfering" with the Doctor/Patient relationship – another classic "failure" of govt.

    God-Forbid that someone point out that the private sector plan will do EXACTLY the same thing .. except that in addition to that – they'll drop people entirely to cut costs.

    When you fly on an airliner – do you want that airliner certified to fly by the airline industry alone or do you want the FAA and the NSTB folks in the loop?

    we, as a country, are on a dumb-as-a-doo-doo track these days..

    we've lost our common sense and starting listening to ideologues – the same ones who wanted Wall Street deregulated and Social Security privatized.

    I'm not advocating more govt here.. at all.. I'm opposed to govt subsidies by and large and many govt programs… that are basically scams to fatten folks who are already fat and simply do not have a legitimate need.

  101. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Look, ever since wwII the total tax bill runs around 20 -25% of GDP. I don't see it goiing up much.
    I don't see us becoming like Norway where the tax bill is 60% of GDP.

    But if it does go up a lot, it is coming out of the pocket of rich people because they are the ones with most of the income and most of the capital.

    You had better have a marketing plan that sells that idea to them, and that means showing them that they do not come out as losers on the total package. You need them to "buy in".

    Otherwise, it is just stealing.

    RH

  102. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I agree entirely with your 3:33 post.

    RH

  103. Larry G Avatar

    100 comments.. I'm done

  104. Groveton Avatar

    LarryG:

    You points are sometimes well taken. However, you confuse the real culprits. You think it's been a battle between deregulating Republicans against populist Democrats who want to maintain effective regulation. I think it's a battle between crooked and inept politicians on both sides of the aisle aginst the American people.

    Here is a clip from one of the heroes of the Democratic Party. Is this one of the guys you want regulating life in these United States?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6Yv7jT0TX0

  105. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I watched a special with Warren Buffet on TV tonight.

    He says the American Dream is alive and well.

    He really is a genius, and the remarkable thing is that of all the questions he was asked…….

    I would have given a similar answer.

    RH

  106. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "I think it's a battle between crooked and inept politicians on both sides of the aisle aginst the American people."

    Me too. Both parties are busy aggrandizing the party, without respect for people, truth or common sense.

    They manufacture canned thinking.

    RH

  107. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Growing grapes is not an offensive thing to the environment. But having weddings and parties — that's an unlimited use that could have an impact on the environment," Bonhivert said. "

    From a WAPO article on controversy surrounding a proposed Fairfax county Winery.

    —————————-

    Have "environmentalists" completely lost their mind? Now you can;t get married or have fun without creating an environmental hazard?

    Social hazerd or nuisance, maybe, but is this really an environmental issue.

    Or just another way to amend the American Dream?

    RH

  108. Anonymous Avatar

    "Beginning Oct. 1, motor oil filters, wooden pallets and plastic bottles are outlawed from entering any North Carolina landfill. This new statewide recycling ban will ensure that more items are kept out of the landfill and recycled instead. Here at ASU we already have recycling programs for these materials in place, but we hope that this new ban will assist us in capturing even more of these materials for recycling and keep them out of our waste stream."

    People will still use oil filters, pallets, and bottles. They have to go somewhere. Some of them will find their way to recycling, and the rest will wind up beside the road.

    It would be a better idea to put a deposit on them, but just issuing an unrealistic ban is a lot easier, and it (apparently) doesn't cost anything.

    RH

  109. realtor in Vancouver Avatar
    realtor in Vancouver

    Hi and thank you for the post. Well, one thing is the government, the other thing is the people themselves. We are facing an economical crises, on the other hand, people continue buying things using borrowed money and taking more and more loans. If we don't stop doing that, we will never get out of the circle.

    All the best,

    Jay

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