by James C. SherlockThe Virginia Mercury

published  an excellent article on the difficulties being encountered in Virginia in scheduling COVID shots.

But who could have anticipated the need? Who indeed.

This story is part of the single biggest government scandal in Virginia history and the press is either ignorant of the underlying issue or has ignored it. I think ignorance is more likely. Certainly Governor Northam’s executive branch made every effort to hide it from them.

I say the executive branch because I firmly believe — and hope really — the Governor himself never had a clue.

The now-hidden-from-public-view Commonwealth of Virginia Emergency Operations Plan, Hazard-Specific Annex #4 Pandemic Influenza Response (Non-Clinical), Virginia Department of Emergency Management August 2012 (the Plan) required planning and exercise of a vaccine distribution plan and much more.

Never happened.

The Plan specified planning, exercise and operational responsibilities for
the following executive branch organizations:

Lead Agency – Virginia Department of Emergency Management

Support Agencies and Organizations

  • Department of Education
  • State Council of Higher Education for Virginia
  • Virginia Community College System
  • Department of Social Services
  • Department of Human Resource Management
  • Virginia State Police
  • Virginia Department of Fire Programs
  • VDH, Office of EMS (joint responsibilities)
  • Virginia Department of Health
  • Department of Labor and Industry, Occupational Safety and Health
  • Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services
  • Department of Military Affairs
  • Virginia Department of Transportation
  • Secretary of Transportation
  • Department of Motor Vehicles
  • Virginia Employment Commission

I’m going to focus on just three: VDEM, VDH and VEC.

From the Virginia Department of Emergency Management:

The Virginia Emergency Support Team (VEST) is comprised of more than 300 credentialed members, the VEST draws its staff from more than 40 State Agencies, dozens of NGOs, and private sector companies such as Verizon and Dominion. During steady state operations, VEST training is conducted nearly every week on a variety of emergency management topics.

That “variety of emergency management topics” clearly did not include pandemic response.

The Plan clearly lay undiscovered in file drawers all over Richmond for years until too late. But the government, as always most highly motivated by self protection, roared to life to remove the Plan from public view. Mission accomplished I guess.

That done, the government of Virginia stumbled every step of the way.

I will address only a few general elements of that plan and three specific responsibilities: pre-pandemic storage of emergency supplies, vaccine distribution and unemployment response.

The Plan

Virginia HAZARD-SPECIFIC ANNEX #4 2

The Plan was written for the Commonwealth by contractors paid by the federal government to ensure it was coherent with federal plans.

Planning Assumptions (a few of many listed)

  • Pre-event planning is critical to ensure a prompt and effective response to a pandemic influenza, as its spread will be rapid, recurring (in multiple waves), and difficult to stop once it begins.
  • Due to the universal susceptibility of the public to an influenza virus and the anticipated pervasive impact on all segments of society, the majority of the medical and non-medical consequences of the event will be addressed by the public and private sectors in the context of the existing emergency management framework, supporting infrastructure, available resources, and associated supply chains with marginal support from new or external parties.
  • Although technical assistance and support will be available through the federal government prior to, during, and following the event period, it will be limited in contrast to other natural and human-caused events that impact a specific geographic area in a more defined, shorter, and nonrecurring timeframe.
  • Vaccines will not be available for approximately six months following identification of the virus and will be in limited quantities when made available, necessitating the need to develop and implement a distribution plan.

A requirement for a vaccine distribution plan —  established in 2012.

Policies

All agencies assigned responsibilities within this annex will develop and maintain the necessary plans, standard operating procedures, mutual aid agreements, and model contracts to successfully accomplish their tasks.

Still waiting.

Concept of Operations

…The VDH plan and this annex represent the Commonwealth’s overall plan to respond and recover from a pandemic influenza outbreak.

Good to know.

Measures to Procure and Stockpile Additional Supplies

Existing measures to provide for needed medical and non-medical stockpiles include

  • Virginia’s purchase of an antiviral stockpile (maintained by a contract vendor responsible for storage and emergency distribution), Metropolitan Medical Response System (MMRS) caches in Virginia’s three (3) MMRS areas (Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads),
  • hospital supplies provided through Health Resources and Services Administration/Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (HRSA/ASPR) grants,
  • supplies purchased by the Health Districts and stored onsite for immediate response purposes, and
  • the Commonwealth of Virginia Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) Plan for federal stockpile assets. Virginia may also request federal assets through the use of the FEMA Action Request Form process as described in the SNS Plan.

Anyone believe that Virginia had provisioned any of those stockpiles and caches? Anybody ever heard of them during the COVID pandemic?

I must have missed the Governor’s press conference in which he discussed them.

Roles & Responsibilities

In each case I have selected a few of the Plan responsibilities for illustration. The full list is in the plan.

ALL Virginia Emergency Response Team (now called Virginia Emergency Support Team (VEST)) Agencies:
1. Exercise, train, and refine continuity plans with an emphasis on pandemic influenza.
2. Provide pandemic influenza related education and training.
3. Review agency communications plan.
4. Review resource inventories and sustainability of supply chains.

Or not.

Virginia Department of Health

Activate the clinical pandemic influenza plan.

Still waiting.

Virginia Employment Commission

  • Coordinate the provision of basic unemployment insurance benefits.
  • Provide written and on-line information on employment services, job referral, job development, employer information.
  • Coordinate the provision of Disaster Unemployment Insurance Benefits and Extended UI Benefits when deemed appropriate by DOLI.

Look how well that went.

Response Phases

Stage 1 – Suspected Human Outbreak Overseas

VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH:
1. Review and exercise the VDH pandemic influenza plan.
6. Review and adjust inventories of selected resources.
7. Coordinate with suppliers.

Stage 2 – Confirmed Human Outbreak Overseas

VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH:
1. Declare a “public health emergency.”
2. Review and activate appropriate plans.
8. Review and implement anti-viral distribution plans.

Stage 3 – Widespread Outbreaks Overseas

VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH:
2. Prepare to implement surge plans.
3. Review and implement anti-viral distribution plans.

Stage 4 – First Human-to-Human Case in North America

VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH:
2. Prepare to implement surge plans.
3. Review and implement anti-viral distribution plans.
5. Implement antiviral treatment/targeted prophylaxis.

I’ll stop there. You get the idea.

What must be done?

The citizens of Virginia through our elected representatives must demand accountability for this deadly failure to carry out written responsibilities. Incompetence is apparent, but an insufficient defense. This cannot be OK.

The Governor must fire the head of every agency that failed to carry out its Plan responsibilities to set an example for future state department heads. If that is done, there will never be another one that will fail to keep abreast of his or her emergency responsibilities.

Which is the point.

Finally, where is the General Assembly on this utter and deadly failure of the executive branch? Where was the Attorney General in his consumer protection role?

Given the Virginia Way, action in the public interest in this matter, as in most, is highly unlikely because there are no lobbyists and no campaign donations attached to the issue, just a lot of dead people.

But it makes me feel better to write about it.


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Comments

106 responses to “All According to Plan – the Biggest Government Scandal in Virginia History”

  1. bodkinpoint Avatar
    bodkinpoint

    Is the complete plan available online, or has the bureaucracy completely expunged it?

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      It is not available online, but I have a copy and have put a link to it in the essay above.

      1. Steve Haner Avatar
        Steve Haner

        The Mercury wrote about flu shots? or COVID vaccines….

    2. Emilio Jaksetic Avatar
      Emilio Jaksetic

      Removal of released official documents from public access raises questions of intent: routine housekeeping, replacement by superseding documents, neglect, mistake, or intentional concealment? If there is no obvious or apparent good reason for the removal of the emergency plan from public access, then the question is whether the Virginia government is exhibiting neglect, mistake or intentional concealment. None of those possibilities is exculpatory given the significance and importance of the emergency medical plan.

      If the Virginia government sought to hide the plan from the public, then it was engaged in the practice of selective “airbrushing” or “erasing” of awkward or embarrassing history. Such a practice is reminiscent of the Soviet practice of altering photos and official histories for political reasons. See, e.g., David King, The Commissar Vanishes (New Edition), Tate Publishing, 2014.

      1. sherlockj Avatar

        This was intentional concealment a day after I wrote about it.

        1. Mr. Sherlock,

          Thank you for exposing this issue. If we don’t expose failures of government, there is no hope of improvement. That’s why we have (or at least had) a free press.

          I worked in state government for over 20 years and have seen first hand how this works. Disaster planning consists of massive documents that nobody at the executive level ever reads. The plans exist solely to satisfy the auditors.

          Then, when an actual emergency happens, those documents are ignored and executives wing it. Sometimes the plans are ignored because they are completely unrealistic and wouldn’t work.

  2. idiocracy Avatar

    Was that document originally in .docx format as you got it from the Commonwealth?

    If so, they’ve never heard of pdf?

    But it is Virginia, I guess..

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      I had to do a lot of work to put the version I had into .docx so that I could use it.

      1. idiocracy Avatar

        If it was ever online and you have an idea of where approximately it might have been, you could try the Internet Archive:

        https://archive.org/web/

        1. If you want to see the pdf version, for whatever reason, I downloaded the copy from Google and posted it on InsideTheCrater.com April 3, 2020 after I read Jim Sherlock’s article about its removal from the Commonwealth’s site. The same day, I posted“Throwing Out a Perfectly Good Plan is No Way to Treat a Virus” referring to Jim’s April 2nd and 3rd posts on BR. I identified the dates and specific events that should have triggered actions under the pandemic plan–all of which were prior to its removal.

        2. sherlockj Avatar

          The entire document is available through the link I put in the column.

          1. sherlockj Avatar

            I wrote about that back in March. The dates are available if anyone in Virginia government is interested. But they are not.

  3. PackerFan Avatar

    I bet Annex #4 is on the shelves of a lot of City/County Managers and Fire Chiefs in Virginia in case any “mainstream media” would like to investigate and report.

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      They can go to my column above. I linked my copy so that anyone can download it.

  4. Mark Flaherty Avatar
    Mark Flaherty

    Perhaps in keeping with plans we pay for but never use, the Commonwealth COVID Vaccination Plan: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/11/2020/11/DRAFT-Virginia-COVID-19-Vaccine-Campaign-Plan.pdf.
    Note this is a DRAFT, have been unable to find the FINAL/Execution version. Clearly the response has been consistent with the some of document and others are awaiting implementation. Of interest many of the actions were directed to occur in October and complete in December. Still waiting.

  5. Thank you for all the hard work that went into digging this out. As usual, the less forgivable part of this is the cover-up rather than the original inaction. If taxpayers knew how many “Plans” were sitting in drawers and on shelves that have not been reviewed or updated in a dozen years they (hopefully) would be outraged. The fact that these particular plans may have been paid for by federal dollars rather than state funds should be small comfort to those of us who pay for it either way. Firing Department heads likely won’t happen, but we could all cheer when we see the person(s) who ordered these public documents removed from public view frog-marched into prison

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      I agree the coverup is unforgivable. But I don’t agree that was the most egregious act.

      We pay bureaucracies to take care of bureaucratic things.

      Long term planning and exercise of emergency situations is not a matter of who was just elected, but a matter of the basic blocking and tackling of the professional government.

      Virginia’s professional government failed in its duties in COVID-19. Virginia’s professional government officials must be held accountable.

  6. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
    Bill O’Keefe

    Thank you for your hard work in digging up this summary. What makes the situation worse is that the precipitating event happened almost a year ago. And, still the Governor, his cabinet officials, and GeneralAssembly keep stumbling from one screw up to another.

  7. bodkinpoint Avatar
    bodkinpoint

    Is the complete plan available online, or has the bureaucracy completely expunged it?

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      It is not available online, but I have a copy and have put a link to it in the essay above.

      1. Steve Haner Avatar
        Steve Haner

        The Mercury wrote about flu shots? or COVID vaccines….

        1. sherlockj Avatar

          Thanks. Fixed it

          1. Steve Haner Avatar
            Steve Haner

            Flu not an issue this year :).

    2. Emilio Jaksetic Avatar
      Emilio Jaksetic

      Removal of released official documents from public access raises questions of intent: routine housekeeping, replacement by superseding documents, neglect, mistake, or intentional concealment? If there is no obvious or apparent good reason for the removal of the emergency plan from public access, then the question is whether the Virginia government is exhibiting neglect, mistake or intentional concealment. None of those possibilities is exculpatory given the significance and importance of the emergency medical plan.

      If the Virginia government sought to hide the plan from the public, then it was engaged in the practice of selective “airbrushing” or “erasing” of awkward or embarrassing history. Such a practice is reminiscent of the Soviet practice of altering photos and official histories for political reasons. See, e.g., David King, The Commissar Vanishes (New Edition), Tate Publishing, 2014.

      1. sherlockj Avatar

        This was intentional concealment a day after I wrote about it.

        1. Mr. Sherlock,

          Thank you for exposing this issue. If we don’t expose failures of government, there is no hope of improvement. That’s why we have (or at least had) a free press.

          I worked in state government for over 20 years and have seen first hand how this works. Disaster planning consists of massive documents that nobody at the executive level ever reads. The plans exist solely to satisfy the auditors.

          Then, when an actual emergency happens, those documents are ignored and executives wing it. Sometimes the plans are ignored because they are completely unrealistic and wouldn’t work.

  8. idiocracy Avatar

    Was that document originally in .docx format as you got it from the Commonwealth?

    If so, they’ve never heard of pdf?

    But it is Virginia, I guess..

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      I had to do a lot of work to put the version I had into .docx so that I could use it.

      1. idiocracy Avatar

        If it was ever online and you have an idea of where approximately it might have been, you could try the Internet Archive:

        https://archive.org/web/

        1. sherlockj Avatar

          The entire document is available through the link I put in the column.

          1. idiocracy Avatar

            Yes, but wouldn’t it prove a bit more malfeasance if it could be shown that the document was online and when it was removed?

          2. sherlockj Avatar

            I wrote about that back in March. The dates are available if anyone in Virginia government is interested. But they are not.

        2. If you want to see the pdf version, for whatever reason, I downloaded the copy from Google and posted it on InsideTheCrater.com April 3, 2020 after I read Jim Sherlock’s article about its removal from the Commonwealth’s site. The same day, I posted“Throwing Out a Perfectly Good Plan is No Way to Treat a Virus” referring to Jim’s April 2nd and 3rd posts on BR. I identified the dates and specific events that should have triggered actions under the pandemic plan–all of which were prior to its removal.

  9. PackerFan Avatar

    I bet Annex #4 is on the shelves of a lot of City/County Managers and Fire Chiefs in Virginia in case any “mainstream media” would like to investigate and report.

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      They can go to my column above. I linked my copy so that anyone can download it.

  10. Mark Flaherty Avatar
    Mark Flaherty

    Perhaps in keeping with plans we pay for but never use, the Commonwealth COVID Vaccination Plan: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/11/2020/11/DRAFT-Virginia-COVID-19-Vaccine-Campaign-Plan.pdf.
    Note this is a DRAFT, have been unable to find the FINAL/Execution version. Clearly the response has been consistent with the some of document and others are awaiting implementation. Of interest many of the actions were directed to occur in October and complete in December. Still waiting.

  11. Thank you for all the hard work that went into digging this out. As usual, the less forgivable part of this is the cover-up rather than the original inaction. If taxpayers knew how many “Plans” were sitting in drawers and on shelves that have not been reviewed or updated in a dozen years they (hopefully) would be outraged. The fact that these particular plans may have been paid for by federal dollars rather than state funds should be small comfort to those of us who pay for it either way. Firing Department heads likely won’t happen, but we could all cheer when we see the person(s) who ordered these public documents removed from public view frog-marched into prison

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      I agree the coverup is unforgivable. But I don’t agree that was the most egregious act.

      We pay bureaucracies to take care of bureaucratic things.

      Long term planning and exercise of emergency situations is not a matter of who was just elected, but a matter of the basic blocking and tackling of the professional government.

      Virginia’s professional government failed in its duties in COVID-19. Virginia’s professional government officials must be held accountable.

  12. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
    Bill O’Keefe

    Thank you for your hard work in digging up this summary. What makes the situation worse is that the precipitating event happened almost a year ago. And, still the Governor, his cabinet officials, and GeneralAssembly keep stumbling from one screw up to another.

  13. DLunsford Avatar

    Good thing we didn’t get hit with a real pathogen like Variola (smallpox).

  14. DLunsford Avatar

    Good thing we didn’t get hit with a real pathogen like Variola (smallpox).

  15. Charlie Potatoe Avatar
    Charlie Potatoe

    Great work and Article.

    However, I don’t understand why you are giving the Governor the benefit of the doubt about his failure to be informed about and acting on the most important issue for the Commonwealth during his Term as Governor?

    Based on the history of incompetence and failure by the Governor and his Administration regarding this Issue, the presumption should be reversed.

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      I give him the benefit of the doubt because I don’t know what he knew. Just about the first thing an executive in any position should do is inquire about his responsibilities in an emergency. But that doesn’t mean he did.

      My point in the article was about the folks in government who are there regardless who is elected. They don’t get enough credit when they do well, and they sure as hell aren’t assigned and don’t accept responsibility when their misfeasance kills people at this scale.

      1. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
        Bill O’Keefe

        As Harry Truman said, ” the buck stops here.” The Governor and his cabinet had plenty of time to evaluate emergency plans as well as test and revise them. It is obvious that they didn’t and they bear responsibility for the pathetic response.

  16. Charlie Potatoe Avatar
    Charlie Potatoe

    Great work and Article.

    However, I don’t understand why you are giving the Governor the benefit of the doubt about his failure to be informed about and acting on the most important issue for the Commonwealth during his Term as Governor?

    Based on the history of incompetence and failure by the Governor and his Administration regarding this Issue, the presumption should be reversed.

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      I give him the benefit of the doubt because I don’t know what he knew. Just about the first thing an executive in any position should do is inquire about his responsibilities in an emergency. But that doesn’t mean he did.

      My point in the article was about the folks in government who are there regardless who is elected. They don’t get enough credit when they do well, and they sure as hell aren’t assigned and don’t accept responsibility when their misfeasance kills people at this scale.

      1. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
        Bill O’Keefe

        As Harry Truman said, ” the buck stops here.” The Governor and his cabinet had plenty of time to evaluate emergency plans as well as test and revise them. It is obvious that they didn’t and they bear responsibility for the pathetic response.

  17. djrippert Avatar

    “Virginia’s professional government failed in its duties in COVID-19. Virginia’s professional government officials must be held accountable.”

    “This story is part of the single biggest government scandal in Virginia history and the press is either ignorant of the underlying issue or has ignored it.”

    No surprise. When elected Democrats fail the people the leftist press is silent. If “the Coonman Diaries” had come out before the last governor’s election and Ed Gillespie were now governor the press would be raising hell.

    Lose an independent free press and lose your democracy.

  18. djrippert Avatar

    “Virginia’s professional government failed in its duties in COVID-19. Virginia’s professional government officials must be held accountable.”

    “This story is part of the single biggest government scandal in Virginia history and the press is either ignorant of the underlying issue or has ignored it.”

    No surprise. When elected Democrats fail the people the leftist press is silent. If “the Coonman Diaries” had come out before the last governor’s election and Ed Gillespie were now governor the press would be raising hell.

    Lose an independent free press and lose your democracy.

  19. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Jim,

    You didn’t read carefully enough…

    “Commonwealth of Virginia Emergency Operations Plan, Haphazard-Specific Annex #4”

  20. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Jim,

    You didn’t read carefully enough…

    “Commonwealth of Virginia Emergency Operations Plan, Haphazard-Specific Annex #4”

  21. I must have totally missed the universal availability of a vaccine back in February 2020 when the pandemic arose. Shame on Northam for not stockpiling a vaccine that would only be developed months afterwards.

    Sherlock, you can do better than this…..

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      So can you. For example read the words in the plan.

      Stockpiling wasn’t for vaccine of course, it was for everything else such as PPE and ventilators.

      Planning and exercising for hospital emergency treatment of mass casualties doesn’t require an actual casualty.

      Planning and exercising systems for the distribution of test kits and therapeutics and vaccines doesn’t require any of those to be in hand.

      Planning and exercising the use of the Virginia Medical Reserve Corps does not require a pandemic.

      Get a grip.

  22. I must have totally missed the universal availability of a vaccine back in February 2020 when the pandemic arose. Shame on Northam for not stockpiling a vaccine that would only be developed months afterwards.

    Sherlock, you can do better than this…..

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      So can you. For example read the words in the plan.

      Stockpiling wasn’t for vaccine of course, it was for everything else such as PPE and ventilators.

      Planning and exercising for hospital emergency treatment of mass casualties doesn’t require an actual casualty.

      Planning and exercising systems for the distribution of test kits and therapeutics and vaccines doesn’t require any of those to be in hand.

      Planning and exercising the use of the Virginia Medical Reserve Corps does not require a pandemic.

      Get a grip.

  23. Rowinguy: Jim Sherlock laid this all out before VDEM & VDH had a clue about how to proceed with any pandemic action. How about supplies for an example? Can you imagine how much chaos and expense could have been averted by using the 2012 plan steps from the beginning? Not even counting how many cases might have been avoided early on with enough PPE.
    Stage 1 –Suspected Human Outbreak Overseas WHO Phase 4
    This occurred in November, 2019 in China.

    VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH:
    Review and exercise the VDH pandemic influenza plan.
    Continue surveillance.
    Coordinate with partners.
    Initiate education campaign.
    Prepare pre-scripted messages.
    Review and adjust inventories of selected resources.
    Coordinate with suppliers.
    Review and update the fatality management plan.

    Just because the vaccine hadn’t been developed yet for this pandemic didn’t mean VDEM and VDH shouldn’t have been making plans for when it was available. That would have given them close to a year to have the distribution mechanism thought out and have a system for who would administer it and how registration could be set up.

    Stage 4 –First Human-to-Human Case in North America
    WHO Phase 6
    This occurred January 21 First case confirmed in Washington state after travel from Wuhan.
    VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH:
    Maintain heightened hospital and community surveillance.
    Prepare to implement surge plans.
    Review and implement anti-viral distribution plans.
    Continue providing education and guidance to the public.

  24. Rowinguy: Jim Sherlock laid this all out before VDEM & VDH had a clue about how to proceed with any pandemic action. How about supplies for an example? Can you imagine how much chaos and expense could have been averted by using the 2012 plan steps from the beginning? Not even counting how many cases might have been avoided early on with enough PPE.
    Stage 1 –Suspected Human Outbreak Overseas WHO Phase 4
    This occurred in November, 2019 in China.

    VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH:
    Review and exercise the VDH pandemic influenza plan.
    Continue surveillance.
    Coordinate with partners.
    Initiate education campaign.
    Prepare pre-scripted messages.
    Review and adjust inventories of selected resources.
    Coordinate with suppliers.
    Review and update the fatality management plan.

    Just because the vaccine hadn’t been developed yet for this pandemic didn’t mean VDEM and VDH shouldn’t have been making plans for when it was available. That would have given them close to a year to have the distribution mechanism thought out and have a system for who would administer it and how registration could be set up.

    Stage 4 –First Human-to-Human Case in North America
    WHO Phase 6
    This occurred January 21 First case confirmed in Washington state after travel from Wuhan.
    VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH:
    Maintain heightened hospital and community surveillance.
    Prepare to implement surge plans.
    Review and implement anti-viral distribution plans.
    Continue providing education and guidance to the public.

  25. Charlie Potatoe Avatar
    Charlie Potatoe

    My point is that, if the Governor knew, he directly is responsible for the mess you outlined, and if he didn’t know, he is guilty of negligence, and maladministation for such failure.
    You can blame Professional Staff for incompetence and failure to
    effectively carryout their duties, perhaps, rightly so in this instance, but the ultimate responsibility lies at the top, with the Leader, the weak Governor.
    To quote Harry Truman’s Desk, “The Buck Stops Here.”

    1. idiocracy Avatar

      “The buck doesn’t even hit the brakes here” — every Virginia politician

  26. Charlie Potatoe Avatar
    Charlie Potatoe

    My point is that, if the Governor knew, he directly is responsible for the mess you outlined, and if he didn’t know, he is guilty of negligence, and maladministation for such failure.
    You can blame Professional Staff for incompetence and failure to
    effectively carryout their duties, perhaps, rightly so in this instance, but the ultimate responsibility lies at the top, with the Leader, the weak Governor.
    To quote Harry Truman’s Desk, “The Buck Stops Here.”

    1. idiocracy Avatar

      “The buck doesn’t even hit the brakes here” — every Virginia politician

  27. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    So what’s the takeaway? That there was a pandemic influenza plan that wasn’t followed? How much of the implementation of the existing emergency plan is a cut&paste from that plan? How much is the result of having to, along with 48 other States, incorporate Fed vaccine plans?

    I don’t see your problem.

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      Then read it again.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        No James. There was no vaccine. And the CDC claimed that they would handle it. You guys would have gone ballistic if Virginia had put a vaccine distribution plan in place counter to the Fed plan because the promised Fed plan was feasible in Virginia. WV went it alone because VW didn’t have the chain pharmacy network.

        And, existence of a plan is crap if there is no existing software for scheduling, storage, transportation, etc, etc.

        Wonsan

        1. sherlockj Avatar

          Nancy, what governments and non-government organizations alike do when they run an exercise and discover the lack of systems support for critical functions is order some that will.

          They then stress test the software and hardware in scenario-driven simulations and live exercises and if it fails improve the system until it passes.

          Stress testing doesn’t require citizen participation, and it is done for every properly built system. Setting the appropriate stress levels for the tests is an art, and the exercise scenarios required by the Plan would have helped set them appropriately.

          Of course none of that was done, either for healthcare management or unemployment systems needed to execute the Plan. Because there were no exercises of that Plan.

          1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Nothing existed. No vaccine. No FDA EULA. No manufacturers. No distributors. No appointment software. No priority schedule. Nothing. No one’s phone numbers in the Roladex.

            Now stress test that.

          2. Matt Adams Avatar

            “Nancy_Naive | February 12, 2021 at 9:17 am |
            Nothing existed. No vaccine. No FDA EULA. No manufacturers. No distributors. No appointment software. No priority schedule. Nothing. No one’s phone numbers in the Roladex.

            Now stress test that”

            COVID would just be a variable plugged into the system, none of your ” buts” are relevant.

            It’s called failure to plan and failure to execute, aspects that Gov. Northam should know from the Military.

  28. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    So what’s the takeaway? That there was a pandemic influenza plan that wasn’t followed? How much of the implementation of the existing emergency plan is a cut&paste from that plan? How much is the result of having to, along with 48 other States, incorporate Fed vaccine plans?

    I don’t see your problem.

  29. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Gee, we had a plan for an amphibious assault on Pakistan. Should have used it for Afghanistan.

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      Nancy – a personal note.

      My last job in the military I ran DoD’s simulation-based joint training program. My expertise and experience on things being discussed concerning Virginia’s Pandemic Emergency Plan run pretty deep.

      The Plan itself, written in 2012 for Virginia by a FEMA-funded contractor, is excellent. It’s forecasts of the consequences of a pandemic emergency are not flawless, but nearly so.

      Virginia itself has a modeling and simulation center run by ODU in Suffolk. It was built very close to the DoD center for which I was the founding Director. If the Commonwealth had given the Plan to VMASC for simulation, in say, 2013, several things would have been apparent immediately.

      First, no simulation could have been constructed until the individual agency plans required by the top level Plan in the Annex were written. So lets say that it took a year for them to be written. Part of mission then accomplished.

      Then the simulation in 2014 would have tested communications among and systems support of the exercise participants and would have identified areas of concern.

      – Like the preparation, or not, of Virginia hospitals to handle COVID mass casualties.
      – Like the readiness, or not, of the Virginia Medical Reserve Corps.
      – Like the readiness, or not, of the National Guard to assist.
      – Like lack of the stockpiles required in the Plan.
      – Lack of systems to support distribution of PPE, ventilators, test kits, therapeutics and vaccines.
      – Failure of unemployment systems to support the surge of unemployment claims accurately predicted in the Plan.

      You get the idea.

      Then the 2015 budget could have contained requests for funding to fix the systems problems and fill the empty stockpiles.

      If the state had done those things, which are not fantastical but rather part of the blocking and tackling of effective government, COVID would still have come, but we would have been far better prepared.

      As it is, the Plan was simply ignored and we suffered and continue to suffer the consequences.

      The fastest reaction of the government in the whole COVID crisis was to hide the plan when I wrote about it here.

      No way to spin that.

      1. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
        Bill O’Keefe

        Nancy will never get it because she doesn’t want to.

        1. sherlockj Avatar

          Very adult response.

          You require nothing of your state government but showing up for work. Now they can work from home in their pajamas.

          Low expectations just got lower.

          1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            What was the budget at JFCom?

      2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        2014? 2015? The date on the plan is 2012. Why not 2013 for all that?

        I guess Bob McDonnell missed the bus. Not with his wife, but…

        1. sherlockj Avatar

          First, the essay is aggressively non-political, it is about the failures of the bureaucracy. Second, it was published in late August of 2012.

          1. The written plan appears be better than most, but when the pandemic was officially declared (March 2020 I believe) the document should have been examined carefully, and updated wherever necessary. That was almost one year ago.

            As complicated and this can get, it boils down to a rather simple point.

            If state agencies are required to have written plans to deal with emergencies such as a pandemic, those plans should play a significant role in dealing with one when it happens. If the plan is to be completely ignored when dealing with the actual emergency it was written to address, then why have one? It is a waste of time and money to create such a document if it has no function.

          2. sherlockj Avatar

            Nathan, your assessment is correct but does not go far enough.

            It is a waste of time and money to employ a bureaucracy if they refuse to conduct emergency planning and exercises and thus through there own misfeasance prove useless in an emergency.

          3. True enough.

            I’ll add to that. If the exercises don’t include those with the required expertise, the exercises will also be useless.

            Many state employees responsible for emergency management have no practical experience dealing with type of emergencies they are making plans for.

            Several years ago I attended a meeting about Disaster Recover. The featured speaker was the head of the Virginia Department of Emergency Management. During his presentation it was disclosed that his own department failed to account for a mission critical information system in their emergency plan.

            But here’s the kicker. This system wasn’t accounted for because nobody from IT was involved in the planning.

      3. The pandemic has brought many issues to light for those who understand how things should work.

        But the news media as a whole has confused issues rather than clarified the issues for the public. The news media have taken it upon themselves to create narratives that favored Democrats in the election.

        The appropriate starting point is to understand the appropriate role for each level of government. From day one, the news media deliberately got that wrong.

        The primary responsibilities for citizen care rests with the states. They must ensure that facilities, stockpiles and planning are in place. The Federal Government assists where necessary, but does not have the this as a primary responsibility.

        The Federal Government takes the lead in areas where the states cannot, like restricting international travel, developing and purchasing vaccines, etc.

        1. sherlockj Avatar

          Exactly correct.

          It is difficult to separate ignorance from political predisposition when reading the garbled “reporting” of our layered form of government. But both are present.

          The fact, and very simple concept, that in both times of quiet and times of crisis the mayor does not work for the Governor and the Governor does not work for the President utterly escapes the vast majority of reporters and their editors.

          I have never attended journalism school, but if that fact is not taught in every such school at every juncture, students are wasting their money.

  30. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Gee, we had a plan for an amphibious assault on Pakistan. Should have used it for Afghanistan.

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      Nancy – a personal note.

      My last job in the military I ran DoD’s simulation-based joint training program. My expertise and experience on things being discussed concerning Virginia’s Pandemic Emergency Plan run pretty deep.

      The Plan itself, written in 2012 for Virginia by a FEMA-funded contractor, is excellent. It’s forecasts of the consequences of a pandemic emergency are not flawless, but nearly so.

      Virginia itself has a modeling and simulation center run by ODU in Suffolk. It was built very close to the DoD center for which I was the founding Director. If the Commonwealth had given the Plan to VMASC for simulation, in say, 2013, several things would have been apparent immediately.

      First, no simulation could have been constructed until the individual agency plans required by the top level Plan in the Annex were written. So lets say that it took a year for them to be written. Part of mission then accomplished.

      Then the simulation in 2014 would have tested communications among and systems support of the exercise participants and would have identified areas of concern.

      – Like the preparation, or not, of Virginia hospitals to handle COVID mass casualties.
      – Like the readiness, or not, of the Virginia Medical Reserve Corps.
      – Like the readiness, or not, of the National Guard to assist.
      – Like lack of the stockpiles required in the Plan.
      – Lack of systems to support distribution of PPE, ventilators, test kits, therapeutics and vaccines.
      – Failure of unemployment systems to support the surge of unemployment claims accurately predicted in the Plan.

      You get the idea.

      Then the 2015 budget could have contained requests for funding to fix the systems problems and fill the empty stockpiles.

      If the state had done those things, which are not fantastical but rather part of the blocking and tackling of effective government, COVID would still have come, but we would have been far better prepared.

      As it is, the Plan was simply ignored and we suffered and continue to suffer the consequences.

      The fastest reaction of the government in the whole COVID crisis was to hide the plan when I wrote about it here.

      No way to spin that.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        2014? 2015? The date on the plan is 2012. Why not 2013 for all that?

        I guess Bob McDonnell missed the bus. Not with his wife, but…

        1. sherlockj Avatar

          First, the essay is aggressively non-political, it is about the failures of the bureaucracy. Second, it was published in late August of 2012.

          1. True enough.

            I’ll add to that. If the exercises don’t include those with the required expertise, the exercises will also be useless.

            Many state employees responsible for emergency management have no practical experience dealing with type of emergencies they are making plans for.

            Several years ago I attended a meeting about Disaster Recover. The featured speaker was the head of the Virginia Department of Emergency Management. During his presentation it was disclosed that his own department failed to account for a mission critical information system in their emergency plan.

            But here’s the kicker. This system wasn’t accounted for because nobody from IT was involved in the planning.

  31. David Bither Avatar
    David Bither

    At the National Training Center (NTC), over 48 exercises were conducted between 1986 and 1989 to test and refine tactics, techniques, and procedures for conducting large combined arms combat in a desert environment (i.e., Middle East). Lessons learned in terms of what worked and what didn’t in the Mojave were used to develop plans and operational orders for the ground war portion of Operation Desert Storm (thirty years ago this month).

    The NTC efforts were conducted with no thought of Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait. However, the knowledge garnered through 36 months of realistic training and putting operational, logistics, and planning staffs to the test were significant contributors to one of the most overwhelming victories in U.S. military history saving thousands of lives.

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      At what cost? Yes, military training makes sense, well, because in 300 years, we’ve had something north of 290 military actions.

      But it’s not difficult to go to April pieces written at BR that compare, more like contrast, play down, etc., to 1918 with occasional mentions of 1958.

      1. sherlockj Avatar

        So planning and training of government bureaucracies in emergency response makes no sense? You can’t really believe that.

        There have been four pandemic proclamations in the United States before COVID-19. Those were
        – 1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus)
        – 1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)
        – 1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus)
        – 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus)

        From the CDC: The 2009 (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

        So, after the 2009 experience, for the Virginia emergency management and health bureaucracies among others in 2012 to dump a federally funded plan for Virginia pandemic response into the trash may and in fact must be criticized.

        To pretend otherwise is sophistry.

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Again, why didn’t McDonnell do it?
          How much should they have allocated?
          How often do they drill?
          Do you get the hospitals in the drill? Are you going to pay them?
          Should they have modeled the supply chains and the agencies?
          What kind of models?
          Analytical? Stochastic? Markov? Monte Carlo?
          What fidelity?
          How much is the cost of computer simulations?
          How much to gather the data on vaccine, PPE production and use.

          The picture isn’t Captain Obvious. He’s Captain Hindsight. Totally different character.

          1. sherlockj Avatar

            The impetus for the Plan was the 2009 pandemic with which the Obama administration had so much difficulty.

            The Obama-Biden administration’s response to the H1N1 pandemic was so bad that his former Ebola czar, Ron Klain, who was also an advisor to Biden’s campaign, admitted that the response was botched.

            “We did every possible thing wrong. Sixty million Americans got H1N1 in that period of time. And it is purely a fortuity that this isn’t one of the great mass casualty events in American history. It had nothing to do with us doing anything right. It just had to do with luck. If anyone thinks that this can’t happen again, they don’t have to go back to 1918, they just have to go back to 2009, 2010, and imagine a virus with a different lethality, and you can just do the math on that.”

            Well, we are in the midst of “doing the math on that”.

            That experience is why the 2012 plans were created at federal expense for each state. You are the one trying to make this political, not me, but since you asked McDonnell was only in office 4 months after the Plan was published.

            The rest of your list of queries, Nancy, are questions that should have been asked by the Virginia bureaucracy, don’t you agree?

            Especially since FEMA funds state and local exercises of emergency plans at state request.

            As I wrote, your comments are pure sophistry.

          2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Robert Francis McDonnell (born June 15, 1954) is an American politician and lawyer who served as the 71st Governor of Virginia from 2010 to 2014.

          3. sherlockj Avatar

            I stand corrected.

            I did not include political blame in my essay and thus in this context didn’t much care.

            My essay excluded political blame in order to focus on the failures of the bureaucracy. It specifically excluded from personal responsibility Governor Northam and by extension our other Governors.

            “Buck Stops Here”, but not if there is no buck on the way up the chain.

            The bureaucracy fatally screwed up. No elected official can overcome that.

            But you insist on blaming elected officials – not sure why, but it seems to make you more comfortable.

            Elected officials bear responsibility for everything that occurs on their watch. But that is different than being in control of everything that occurs on their watch. Very different.

            If you cannot accept that the bureaucracy bears blame here, then you do not understand government.

          4. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
            Bill O’Keefe

            You go too easy on the Governor. Yes, it is true that a governor can’t know or personally be responsible for every bureaucratic action but responsibility goes with the job. He has plenty of warning that an execution plan would be needed and time to dust off and test what had been developed. Testing the system and planning for unexpected was his job and he failed. In the private sector, the buck actually does stop at the top and with President’s even if some things are beyond their control.

          5. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            I do understand this much of government… somebody needed to budget for it first. The Plan document was a check box to get federal bucks. Anything else beyond it required additional funding from the State.

        2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          I’m not blaming anyone, and no, in your article you lay no political blame.

          However, in a comment you asked why this was not done in 2014 or 2015.

          I only remind you that ALL of 2013 was available as well. Moreover, 2013 would have been “when the iron was hot.”

          There. Now it is NOT political.

          1. sherlockj Avatar

            ” The Plan document was a check box to get federal bucks. Anything else beyond it required additional funding from the State.”

            Not correct, Nancy. FEMA by and large pays the bills.

            I am holding a column on Virginia’s participation in the National Exercise Program (NEP) while awaiting the results of a FOIA request I sent to VDEM. NEP is a federal, state, regional and local program of exercises offered at every level of technical complexity.

            The objectives of the NEP are set by the National Security Council. They have included “Infectious Disease and Biological Incidents” every two year cycle that I can remember going back well before 2012.

            State, local, tribal, territorial and other whole community partners can receive technical assistance and support for exercises at no cost from experienced exercise specialists in the National Exercise Division.

            Support can include assistance with exercise design, scenario development, planning, conduct, and evaluation in the form of subject-matter expertise, material production, or facilitation for selected exercises.

            VDEM has an exercise division that is funded to support that NEP at the state end and files the application and sets up state participation. State government agencies were and are required only to agree to participate and show up.

            VDH of course is the lead state agency for Infectious Disease and Biological Incident exercises. If VDH is not interested, applications are not submitted and those exercises don’t get done at the state level. Even if conducted, exercise participants need to be the bosses, not lower level grunts.

            As soon as I get the FOIA response, I will write about it.

            You will be unsurprised to learn that information used to be available on the VDEM website, and is no longer.

            I also wrote here about VMASC. The state can nominate VMASC for a FEMA grant to run simulations of state plans either within or outside the NEP.

  32. David Bither Avatar
    David Bither

    At the National Training Center (NTC), over 48 exercises were conducted between 1986 and 1989 to test and refine tactics, techniques, and procedures for conducting large combined arms combat in a desert environment (i.e., Middle East). Lessons learned in terms of what worked and what didn’t in the Mojave were used to develop plans and operational orders for the ground war portion of Operation Desert Storm (thirty years ago this month).

    The NTC efforts were conducted with no thought of Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait. However, the knowledge garnered through 36 months of realistic training and putting operational, logistics, and planning staffs to the test were significant contributors to one of the most overwhelming victories in U.S. military history saving thousands of lives.

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      At what cost? Yes, military training makes sense, well, because in 300 years, we’ve had something north of 290 military actions.

      But it’s not difficult to go to April pieces written at BR that compare, more like contrast, play down, etc., to 1918 with occasional mentions of 1958.

      1. sherlockj Avatar

        So planning and training of government bureaucracies in emergency response makes no sense? You can’t really believe that.

        There have been four pandemic proclamations in the United States before COVID-19. Those were
        – 1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus)
        – 1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)
        – 1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus)
        – 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus)

        From the CDC: The 2009 (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

        So, after the 2009 experience, for the Virginia emergency management and health bureaucracies among others in 2012 to dump a federally funded plan for Virginia pandemic response into the trash may and in fact must be criticized.

        To pretend otherwise is sophistry.

  33. Jim Loesel Avatar

    Meanwhile, today in Roanoke, there will be a mass inoculation event at the Roanoke Civic Center giving the second shot to the 6,000 people who got their first shot three weeks ago. According to a story in the Roanoke Times, the Roanoke/Alleghany Health District expects that up to 11,000 people will receive a first or second shot this week.
    Also, the new Virginia-wide telephone center that was announced earlier in the week is operational. 877-275-8343 daily 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. I called to see if anyone answered. I got a person within 30 seconds. If the Virginia-wide registration site works as well when it becomes operational on Tuesday, it should reduce frustration considerably. According to our local health district director, the local registration site is gummed up with duplicate/triplicate applications as well as people who have already been scheduled to receive their vaccination.

  34. Jim Loesel Avatar

    Meanwhile, today in Roanoke, there will be a mass inoculation event at the Roanoke Civic Center giving the second shot to the 6,000 people who got their first shot three weeks ago. According to a story in the Roanoke Times, the Roanoke/Alleghany Health District expects that up to 11,000 people will receive a first or second shot this week.
    Also, the new Virginia-wide telephone center that was announced earlier in the week is operational. 877-275-8343 daily 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. I called to see if anyone answered. I got a person within 30 seconds. If the Virginia-wide registration site works as well when it becomes operational on Tuesday, it should reduce frustration considerably. According to our local health district director, the local registration site is gummed up with duplicate/triplicate applications as well as people who have already been scheduled to receive their vaccination.

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