Additional Electoral Jolts

by Dick Hall-Sizemore

It has long been evident that Henrico County has been changing, both demographically and politically. The results of this week’s elections were the culmination of that long-term trend.

The county has a history of continuity in its Board of Supervisors membership with members serving for many years. This year, two long-serving board members, Patricia O’Bannon and Frank Thornton, both of whom will complete 28 years on the board this year, announced their retirements.  (Thornton was the first Black elected to the board.)

The partisan breakdown of the board has been three Republicans and two Democrats for many years, except for a brief interlude in 2018 when a Democrat was elected in a special election following the death of a long-serving Republican. She resigned from the board seven months later after getting into a nasty squabble with other board members, including her fellow Democrats, who said she was not playing by their internal rules. A Republican won in the ensuing special election.

Jody Rogish

In this year’s race for O’Bannon’s seat in the Tuckahoe District, Democrat Jody Rogish, an IT consultant, beat Republican Greg Baka, whom O’Bannon had appointed to the County Planning Commission and had endorsed for the Board of Supervisors. The district has long consisted of middle- to upper-middle-class families. Rogish won 51 percent of the votes.

Misty Whitehead

The upset of the night was in the Three Chopt District, where residential and commercial growth has exploded in recent years in the Short Pump area. Republican Dave Kaechle represented the district for 36 years. After his retirement in 2015, Republican Thomas Branin had represented the area until he was beaten by 261 votes by Democrat Misty Whitehead, a little-known attorney.

It is not as if these two Democrats were funded by some nefarious progressive billionaire.  According to the latest Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) report, Baka, the Republican spent about double what Rogish, the Democrat, spent–$152,906 vs. $75,030. In the Three Chopt district, Branin, the incumbent Republican, spent an astounding $236,405 compared to Democrat Whitehead’s expenditure of a paltry $15,364. That is more than 15 times as much as his opponent.

When the new board takes office in January, Democrats will hold four of the five seats. Furthermore, three of the Supervisors will be brand new. Both situations will be new for Henrico. The county’s board has generally been low-key and largely nonpartisan. For example, the chairmanship of the board has traditionally rotated among the members, with even the members from the party in the minority serving a term as chair. It remains to be seen if the newcomers will continue this mode of operating.

Meanwhile, across the river in that long-time bastion of Republican conservatism, Chesterfield County, Democrats have won a majority of the seats on its Board of Supervisors, as well.

Bob Dylan was right: “The times, they are a-changing.”


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Comments

42 responses to “Additional Electoral Jolts”

  1. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    NoVa invasion demographics?

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      I don’t know where they are coming from.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar

      Virginia has regions and pockets of “blue” separate and apart from NoVa.

      A bigger and more interesting question is WHY places like Henrico and Chesterfield ARE trending blue. The GOP certainly needs to understand that much more than they need to “work on” their messaging.

    3. LarrytheG Avatar

      Virginia has regions and pockets of “blue” separate and apart from NoVa.

      A bigger and more interesting question is WHY places like Henrico and Chesterfield ARE trending blue. The GOP certainly needs to understand that much more than they need to “work on” their messaging.

  2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    Never underestimate the Whitehead’s. Reclaiming Virginia one seat at a time!

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      They sit to conquer?

      1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead

        The family motto is “Dum Spiro Spero”.
        While I breathe I hope.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          My family motto is “Quam Difficile Potest Esse?”
          How hard can it be?

          Or maybe it was
          “quod natura non dat Salmantica non praestat”

  3. My deep sentiments aside, a fine article, Sir. Thanks for clarifying history and facts for our collective betterment.

  4. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    “In science it often happens that scientists say, “You know that’s a really good argument; my position is mistaken,” and then they would actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn’t happen as often as it should, because scientists are human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion.” — Carl Sagan, astronomer and writer (9 Nov 1934-1996)

  5. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Ouch! This is pretty close to home for the BR staff.

    “It is not as if these two Democrats were funded by some nefarious progressive billionaire.”
    The proverbial poke in the eye with a sharp stick. I love it!

  6. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Greg Baka. Fixed it for you. Again, tis simple. Henrico has long been trending blue.

  7. Super Brain Avatar
    Super Brain

    Chesterfield was 4-1 GOP until last year. The Midlo member resigned to go to the AG’s office. A culture warrior from Loudoun split the GOP in the nominating process. The GOP lost the special election and the Dem incumbent won big Tuesday.
    Chris Winslow lost the Clover Hill district due to development issues and Dem groundwork. He had also become somewhat arrogant after starting out as a good guy and Veteran.

  8. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Greg Baka. Fixed it for you. Again, tis simple. Henrico has long been trending blue.

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      Thanks.

  9. LarrytheG Avatar

    There’s a couple other BR guys that live in Henrico , Mr. Bacon and Haner and I’d be interested in hearing their take on the Henrico elections.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      In 1987 Jim Gilmore became the first GOP commonwealth’s attorney in Henrico. Big win. Big swing. The pendulum never stops and now is going the other way. When I joined the RPV staff we had 34 in the House and 8 in the Senate. I think the House R’s topped out at 65? Senate at 24? Now the D’s have narrow control. Only change is constant.

      I’m not aware of any issue dispute between Baka and Rogish but it was a good Democrat turnout and their voters wanted to vote straight party and took the partisan sample ballot into the poll. There was no R or D on the names down the ticket so they used the sample ballot. My wife had the R sample ballot outside for a while and few voters took them. It was clear who was coming in.

      Proof? They almost elected a porno queen (prostitute IMHO) because she had a D after her name. THOSE are yellow dog Democrat voters (as in, “I’ll vote fer a yeller dog iffin he’s a Democrat.”)

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        Did not know Gilmore’s starting point.
        I still think the car tax thing is an obscene abomination that does the exact opposite of establishing/maintaining transparency and accountability of local governance for taxation policy and decisions.

        1. Stephen Haner Avatar
          Stephen Haner

          Several D’s ran on just that again, no car tax. 🙂

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            Just imagine if we also did a version of that for local schools or law enforcement!

            You’d get a real estate bill from the county showing an assessment and the total tax owed then a column for the “rebate”, then the reduced tax amt owed.

            Meanwhile, we’d all be sending the state the extra income tax it took to be able to fund and send the rebates back to the localities.

            Who in the world does this especially conservatives?

          2. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            That arrangement does benefit those who have no taxable income yet own a vehicle in Virginia. Like pretty much anyone on SSI.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar

            That’s true and it makes it worse because others have to pay more to make up for that loss!

            It’s just a dishonest way to do taxes IMO.

            The state is taxing you to pay for the rebate that makes you think the locality and state did you good on your car tax instead of holding your local officials accountable for the tax rate on cars.

          4. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Sometimes I wonder if Virginia government is just one big game of 3 card monte.

          5. LarrytheG Avatar

            You know that saying? “You can’t go home again”? Might be true for you too! I don’t think
            Virginia is that awful… comparatively… but admit I’ve never lived where you did before!

          6. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            The biggest issue is how transient this area is. Seems few stick around for longer than it takes their last kid to graduate high school.

          7. LarrytheG Avatar

            Do you think it’s much different than other urban areas? Why?

          8. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I do think it’s much different than other urban areas. Reason why is the biggest employer in town, the Federal government. Lots of transient military and transient political appointees.

          9. LarrytheG Avatar

            that may be true…. something like places with major military bases and the personnel are changing often?

          10. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            That, and the political appointees that change with every new President.

            I ran across a statistic, for Manassas Park, the average length of time someone lived in that city was just 6 years.

          11. LarrytheG Avatar

            No surprise … but my (now gone) father-in-law was a chemical engineer that was corporate and moved every 3-4 years. My Dad was a Marine and we moved every 2-3 years.. not unique to NoVa. per se.

          12. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Having lived in Northern Virginia for 34 years AND not being from here…I suspect that I’m somewhat of a rarity.

          13. LarrytheG Avatar

            a better grade of “come-here” ? 😉

          14. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Didn’t move here for a Federal job, nor did my parents, so maybe a different kind of “come here”!

          15. LarrytheG Avatar

            just kidding… I thought your dad did move here for Federal job… non-Federal?

          16. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            No, he moved here to keep his job with Mobil Oil as an aircraft mechanic. And then they laid him off a few years later. Whaddya know, Northern Virginia isn’t exactly teeming with jobs for aircraft mechanics. He took a job with Colgan Air for less money than he was making at Mobil (who, by the way, didn’t increase his pay for the higher cost of living of Northern VA, as I found out after he passed away and looked at his tax returns), worked at Colgan Air which got bought out by Pinnacle Airlines which went bankrupt in 2012 when he retired. I don’t think he wanted to retire.

            If I had to guess, I’d say that “if he knew then what he knew now” he wouldn’t have moved to keep his job with Mobil. I never had the heart to ask.

          17. LarrytheG Avatar

            Father in Law got transferred from Lake Jackson Tx to New Jersey where he could barely afford
            a very minimal TownHouse then to KingsMill in Williamsburg!

          18. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I think in those days companies could get away with stuff like that because we did not have the Internet to find out the cost of living differences between areas. Back then, you probably had to go to the library to find that info out, if you could even find it there.

            If my company told me they wanted me to transfer to New York or San Francisco, I’d tell them no. Even if I were inclined to move to one of those places, I’d tell them no unless they give me a SUBSTANTIAL raise.

          19. LarrytheG Avatar

            Well, even the govt does this.. that’s why we have all those commuters on I-95!!

          20. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            FedGov does offer locality pay adjustments but only by metropolitan area. Fredericksburg is included in the DC locality pay area. So, if someone is lucky enough to score a Federal job in Fredericksburg, same pay, much shorter commute.

          21. Super Brain Avatar
            Super Brain

            Benefits NOVA more than any other part of VA. A reverse transfer.

          22. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I’d venture to guess that the people who pay no income taxes at all (because they’re on government aid) are more likely to be found in RoVA.

  10. Two members of the Board were on the Board for 28 years each?

    Long past time they were gone.

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