by James A. Bacon

Gov. Bob McDonnell has set a goal for Virginia institutions of higher learning to award 100,000 more degrees in the next 15 years. “In this increasingly interconnected global economy a world-class education is the key to economic growth in our communities and personal success for our citizens,” he said last year when touting the Higher Education Opportunity Act. “A well-educated citizenry is what companies are looking for when they are deciding where to locate and expand. I want Virginia to be a magnet for the high-paying jobs of the 21st century.”

In so speaking, the governor articulated one of the few truths that resonate across regions, political parties and special interest groups. In setting the 1000,000-degrees goal, McDonnell employed logic very similar to that of President Obama, who espouses the ideal that everyone who wants to go to college should be able to. Few would disagree.

This trope in American political discourse does have some justification. Higher levels of education are correlated with higher levels of income — for individuals, for racial and ethnic groups, even for nations. But that broad truth obscures as much as it reveals. It is easy to oversell the value of educational investment. There is a risk that Virginians will spend more on higher education than can be rationally justified.

The governor cited a study by the Cooper Center at the University of Virginia, which concludes that awarding 100,000 more degrees would create $39.5 billion more in Virginia’s Gross Domestic Product by 2025, $36 billion in increased personal income and $4.1 billion in new tax revenues. “In short,” he said, “Virginians will be more prosperous and Virginia will be more competitive.”

Two points are worth making. First, not all college degrees are created equal. Some provide skills that are more highly valued and more highly compensated in the marketplace than other degrees. According to “What’s It Worth?“, a publication of Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce, those who hold degrees in petroleum engineering have median earnings of $120,000, while those who earned degrees in counseling/psychology have median earnings of only $29,000. Thus, it very much matters which disciplines those 100,000 extra degrees are in. (It is reassuring to see that McDonnell’s Commission on Higher Education Reform is giving special attention to the so-called STEM degrees — science, technology, engineering and mathematics but there is no assurance that those are disciplines that Virginians will choose to master.)

Second, the fact that the average earnings of people with college degrees is $46,000 doesn’t mean that the median earnings of those 100,000 additional degree holders will be $46,000. Americans most likely to hold college degrees also are Americans who (a) come from families that placed a greater emphasis on academic achievement, (b) were better educated in high school, (c) are more highly motivated and self disciplined, and/or (d) are just plain smarter. Dipping deeper into the talent pool for the purpose of increasing college enrollments will not yield the same caliber of student. It is foolhardy for public policy makers to expect that these students have the same earnings prospects as those who started with more advantages in life — and it’s cruel to the students who will rack up large educational debts only to discover themselves earning less than expected.

Just as citizens must demand that lawmakers prioritize dollars invested in transportation and infrastructure by Return on Investment, we should insist that our dollars we spend on education be spent the same way. High-blown rhetoric may stir the soul but it won’t change the reality that we cannot afford to squander scarce public dollars.