Virginia has one of the lowest crime rates in the country, according to 2012 FBI crime data, as plotted by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia. That applies to both violent and non-violent crime. The Old Dominion is a real outlier compared to other Southern states. Maybe this is more evidence that we’re really not a Southern state anymore! — JAB
(comments below)
(comments below)
As always, you have to decompose this below the state level. Northern Virginia in general, and Fairfax County in particular, are low crime areas.
“Fairfax only has crime stats dating back to 1970, when the population was about 455,000, but even then the seven “Part I crimes” as defined by the FBI — homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and auto theft — totaled nearly 18,600. That number proceeded to steadily rise through the 1970s, and hovered in the 25,000 range through much of the 1990s. But starting in 2002, the total crimes started to decline even as the population was exploding (numerically), and in 2003 the total went under 20,000 and has not gone above since. In 2012 the total dipped below 16,000 for the first time, at 15,792, a 2.6 percent drop from 2011. A record was also set in 2011, when the total was 16,210. Based on a census bureau population of 1,118,602, the total Part I crimes per 100,000 population was 1411.8, the violent crime rate per capita was 73.8 and the homicide rate was 1.4 per 100,000, all of which are insanely low numbers. (Nationally, the violent crime rate per capita was 386.3 in 2011, compared to Fairfax’s 73.8, and the homicide rate was 4.7, compared to Fairfax’s 1.4.)”
It would be interesting to see Virginia’s crime rates by region. I suspect (but do not definitively know) that Northern Virginia skews the overall state rate downward.
From a political perspective, this is why Kathleen Murphy – D lost her House of Delegates race to incumbent Barbara Comstock – R in the 34th HOD district. Murphy misread the voters on the issue of gun control. She said that she asked people if they supported so-called common sense gun control. They told her “yes” and she made than an early feature of her campaign against Comstock. However, she should have asked for a list of people’s top 10 concerns. Gun control would not have been on most lists. Why? Because in a very low crime rate area guns don’t get much “mindshare”. Instead, she would have found traffic as a constant top 10 concern. Barbara Comstock voted against Bob McDonnell’s transportation funding bill. That was the issue Murphy should have featured. Had Murphy done that I believe she would have easily erased the 400+ vote advantage that let Comstock win.
However – Barbara Comstock: We in the 34th are watching you closely and you will not survive one most idiotic move like that. If you’d rather pander to the right wing wingnuts in the RPV than your own constituents you will lose in 2015. This is your first and last warning. We will find a way to swing more than 400 votes to whoever opposes you (even if you are able to outspend your opponent by $500,000 as you did this time).
I agree with DJ- unless this is granular to the county level – the charts cause more questions than they answers – especially the first one.
additionally – in violent crimes – further delineating with respect to stranger on stranger crime vs crimes of known acquaintances is also relevant (I think).
the first chart puzzles me a bit – say for New Mexico but then also for Nevada unless it’s Las Vegas driving the rate. Ditto for Florida…
so – these maps would be a lot more informative if they broke the states down into counties….
then you could see, I’m quite sure that vast, vast areas of New Mexico and Nevada and probably parts of Florida are low crime.. and there are then very dark counties… where crime is prevalent…
maybe more like this:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/01/10/american-gun-crime-map/
I saw Washington State and wondered the same thing.
Agree the state stat by itself is misleading. It kinda negates the idea of Virginia exceptionalism that the blogger may be trying to present, but then check himself with a vague “on the other hand” way. It is classic JAB blogging. Two steps forward, one back. Lenin would be proud!
DJR is obviously right that high income Fairfax and other NOVA land spots are low crime places. Funny but inner city Richmond seems to have its every-other-day bloodlettings although I think crime is down from the enormous highs.
Once again, a lot of this Virginia stat can be attributed to federal and related jobs offering good salaries. Take them away and what do you have? Tennessee or Georgia.
Funny how the conservatives want to dash out the “good news” without tracing it back to what they truly hate — govenment spending!!!!
You are exactly right. However, in fairness to conservatives, I wonder how much difference it would make if the federal government took a one time 10% total cut and then only grew in step with inflation and population growth.
Agree the state stat by itself is misleading. It kinda negates the idea of Virginia exceptionalism that the blogger may be trying to present, but then check himself with a vague “on the other hand” way. It is classic JAB blogging. Two steps forward, one back. Lenin would be proud!
DJR is obviously right that high income Fairfax and other NOVA land spots are low crime places. Funny but inner city Richmond seems to have its every-other-day bloodlettings although I think crime is down from the enormous highs.
Once again, a lot of this Virginia stat can be attributed to federal and related jobs offering good salaries. Take them away and what do you have? Tennessee or Georgia.
Funny how the conservatives want to dash out the “good news” without tracing it back to what they truly hate — government spending!!!!
Meanwhile, back in Paris,….
http://www.nbc12.com/story/23984616/french-embassy-reviewing-the-accuracy-of-richmond-warning
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