by James A. Bacon
Last night, for the first time in my life, I managed to watch the Rachel Maddow Show on MSNBC without my blood pressure shooting through the roof. Even more amazing, I maintained my cool while Maddow interviewed Rep. Barney Frank, D-Massachusetts, the bilious co-author, among other dubious accomplishments, of the Fannie Mae-induced housing bubble. In commenting upon President Obama’s plans to radically downsize the U.S. military, Frank made the common-sense point that we can’t just cut spending and expect our men and women in uniform to maintain the same global-straddling commitments they do today. We will have to redefine America’s role in the world. We will have to make strategic choices. We can no longer afford to be the world’s policeman.
Unlike Maddow and Frank, I have spent the better part of my 58 years arguing for a strong national defense and have been unapologetic about America’s role in the world. For all our fumbling and flaws, the United States has presided over the most benign “empire” in history. Under the Pax Americana global trade has expanded exponentially, lifting literally billions of people from poverty. As much as many people despise us, the world will miss us when we’re gone. Whoever fills the vacuum will make the world a far uglier and more dangerous place.
Be that as it may, we can no longer afford to maintain the military force it takes to support that empire. We are hurtling toward Boomergeddon. If, as seems likely, the federal government goes into default within another decade, it will be impossible to continue policing the world. But rather than make intelligent and rational choices about how best to defend our global interests in an era of constrained resources, we will face fiscal collapse, with wild and unpredictable consequences.
The fiscal condition of the country is getting worse, not better. Two years ago, the president’s Office of Management and Budget forecast that the U.S. would rack up an additional $8.5 trillion in national debt in the ensuing 10 years. OMB also thought the deficit this fiscal year (2012) would amount to a mere $828 billion. Today, the budget deficit is expected to be $1,201 billion. Meanwhile, the strong, 4.5% annual economic growth that OMB had anticipated two years ago, has failed to materialize; even the optimists are projecting only 2.5% growth for next year… assuming no unpleasant surprises from Europe. The under-performing economy has more than offset whatever meager spending cuts Congress has managed to pass.
The president’s policies are largely, though not exclusively, to blame. Obama refuses to cut domestic spending in any meaningful way, he has expanded entitlements rather than reform them, and his excess regulation and class-warfare rhetoric has chased capital to the sidelines. But he’s right about cutting defense. There simply is no way to close a budget deficit running at $1.1 trillion in the third year of an economic expansion without putting defense spending on the table… as his Republicans opponents are not inclined to do.
I don’t give Obama credit for much — I think he has taken a bad situation and made it far worse — but I have to go along with him on this. We must cut defense spending and then redefine our strategic priorities in the world.
None of this do we want to hear in Virginia, where our economy is more dependent upon federal spending — defense spending especially — than almost any other state in the union. But the alternative to closing the budget gap is fiscal collapse and economic depression that will bring defense cuts anyway. If defense cuts are all we can get out of Obama, let’s get on with it — and hope we can elect someone this fall who is willing to tackle domestic spending, entitlements, tax expenditures and to reverse Washington’s anti-growth economic policies.
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