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Another Look at Virginia’s Lagging Population Growth

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James A. Bacon
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Image credit: StatChat blog

After decades as one of the nation’s fast-growth states, Virginia’s population now is growing line with national averages, according to data found in Hamilton Lombard’s latest post on the University of Virginia Demographics Research Group’s StatChat blog.

Lombard attributes the lagging population growth to out-migration resulting from the impact of federal budget austerity on Northern Virginia’s defense-oriented technology sector. Despite this slowdown, NoVa is adding to the state’s population faster than any other region in Virginia because its population skews younger — more women are in the child-bearing age. Indeed, since 2010, NoVa has added more people than the rest of the state combined.

The Richmond region has added the second largest number of people since 2000. And despite its lagging economy, Hampton Roads has contributed substantially to population growth. However, due to emigration of young people, an aging population, and fewer births, population growth in Virginia outside the urban crescent has collapsed since 2010.

Writes Lombard: “Without a surge in population growth, by 2020 Virginia could have close to 200,000 fewer residents than would have been expected based on past population growth trends. Meanwhile, Virginia’s aging population will likely cause the number of counties with more deaths than births to continue to increase, slowing population growth throughout the Commonwealth, even in Northern Virginia.”

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3 responses to “Another Look at Virginia’s Lagging Population Growth”

  1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    “the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Demographics Research Group’s say Bla Bla Bla.”

    When will “academics experts” stop spreading politically correct myths and lies that obscure reality and prevent solutions, and instead tell us the truth so that we can deal with real problems instead of repeating old mistakes?

    Does Weldon Cooper Demographics Research Group ever think outside the C’ville Group Think Bubble?

    Might someone down there at UVA ever consider the reality of what is happening in Northern Virginia, really happening to cause its dying, instead of Federal Government sequestration.

    It is absolutely astounding how incompetent these people who call themselves demographers are. Do they ever consider people to be human, instead of numbers moving around somebody’s chart?

    Consider how much money of our demographers gobble up to create these seas of misinformation, nonsense, and Red Herrings. These false assumptions and conclusions that encourage ever more wastage of public and private monies that compound problems, and thwart solutions, at enormous cost and harm to the people of Northern Virginia, and taxpayers and residents everywhere else in Virginia.

  2. Acbar Avatar
    Acbar

    “Where have all the soldiers gone?” And the sailors and other federal employees and bureaucrats?

    Well, we can’t stop that. But what else is our State doing to boost economic growth? Oh you mean, it really is a good idea to promote the IT and data processing corridor in NoVa? And to tout our natural beauty and cultural heritage and good educational system and proximity to the Northeast Corridor, to attract new businesses to Virginia?

    Or is it cutting education funding, and banning rifle bumpstocks and opposing Medicaid expansion and failing to combat opioid addiction and preventing utility rate reviews and not funding NoVa’s share of Metro, that is sustaining our population growth — let alone, going to attract the likes of Amazon’s second HQ?

  3. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I think what they are really saying is that … we are still growing… but at a slower rate that previously.

    I’m not convinced that’s a problem…

    how do we compare to other states?

    If the population is aging….in general.. without a lot more immigration….we are going to not grow as fast.

    maybe this adds to the picture:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/47/%25_Population_Chnge_by_state_from_2010_-_2017.png/675px-%25_Population_Chnge_by_state_from_2010_-_2017.png

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