Governor Terry McAuliffe said yesterday that he was “thrilled” Virginia had moved up six spots to 7th place in CNBC’s Best States for Business 2017 rankings — and when McAuliffe says he’s thrilled, you can take that to the bank. Whatever else you think about the job he’s done as governor, there is no denying his ardor for his job as Virginia’s chief economic-development salesman and his enthusiasm for every Virginia accomplishment large and small.

In a prepared statement issued yesterday, McAuliffe put his spin on what the news said about his leadership as governor.

“The effects from federal sequestration in 2013 did substantial damage to our economy. When I took office, we came in with a clear and simple plan to diversify our industries and make Virginia less dependent on the whims of Washington. Thanks to significant reforms and historic investments in our education system, innovative workforce development strategies and the record-breaking recruitment of new business capital and jobs, we are mitigating the damage of federal dysfunction and building an economy that works better for everyone.”

McAuliffe isn’t doing anything that any other governor wouldn’t do — taking credit for good news — but the public should take assertions like this with a grain of salt. Dramatic rises and falls in CNBC’s rankings could reflect changes in the economy and CNBC’s scoring methodology as much as anything that McAuliffe (or his peers and predecessors) did.

Take a look at the chart above, which breaks down CNBC’s overall score by 10 categories. Virginia performs worse in five categories since McAuliffe took office in 2014: infrastructure, cost of business, technology & innovation, education and business friendliness. Despite what McAuliffe terms the state’s “historic investment in education,” Virginia’s education rank is lower than when he became governor.

McAuliffe can claim credit for improvements in access to capital, cost of living, and quality of life if he wants to, but it strains credulity to suggest that the incremental policy changes he made as governor had much effect on them. 

Virginia’s gain as a best state to do business – from No. 8 to No. 7 — over McAuliffe’s tenure can be attributed mainly to the Old Dominion’s higher rankings for “workforce” and “economy.”

CNBC gives “workforce” the heaviest weight in its ranking — 425 out of 2,200 points, reflecting the increasing emphasis that businesses give the attribute. Fortunately for us, that is Virginia’ top-performing category. The Old Dominion ranked No. 2 in the country this year. As a bonus, the weight that CNBC assigned the category increased from 400 points last year. To some degree, Virginia owes its better best-place-for-business rank to changes in the way the network calculates its scores.

Now, it’s also true that Virginia’s workforce rating improved as well. Here’s what goes into CNBC’s scoring for that category (my emphasis):

We rate states based on the education level of their workforce, the numbers of available employees and the states’ demonstrated abilities to retain college-educated workers. We consider each state’s concentration of STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) workers, increasingly in demand by business. We measure workforce productivity based on each state’s economic output per job. We look at the relative success of each state’s worker training programs in placing their participants in jobs. We also consider union membership and the states’ right-to-work laws.

Virginia scores well in the “workforce” ranking in large part because of the state’s ability — or perhaps I should say Northern Virginia’s ability — to recruit educated workers from outside the state. It is true that Virginia’s higher-ed system is producing more STEM degrees than ever before, but producing STEM degrees is no guarantee of keeping STEM degrees in the state — just ask the state of Michigan. It is also true that McAuliffe signed the Virginia GO workforce legislation, but that program has not been in effect long enough to have a material influence on workforce training programs.

Clearly, Virginia is doing something right when it comes to building a 21st-century workforce, but it’s far from clear that recent actions emanating from Richmond can explain the short-term fluctuations in the CNBC scoring for the workforce indicator.

Virginia’s “economy” rank has improved as well in the past year, accounting for 300 points in CNBC’s 2,200-point ranking. McAuliffe has done an effective job as Virginia super-salesman. And he has worked to diversify Virginia’s economy from its reliance upon federal defense spending, touting everything from drones and cyber-security to Virginia’s ports and renewable energy. But have his actions been so extraordinary as to move the needle on Virginia’s “economy” score?

Here’s how CNBC computes its score for that category:

We look at economic growth, job creation, consumer spending, and the health of the residential real estate market. We measure each state’s fiscal health by looking at its credit ratings and outlook, as well as its overall budget picture. Because of their own economic impact as well as the ripple effect, we consider the number of major corporations headquartered in each state.

Consumer spending and the residential real estate market are not sectors that state policy affects. Overall economic growth is influenced mainly by (a) the level of federal spending and (b) Virginia’s mix of fast- and slow-growth industries. As for the state’s fiscal health, well, the governor shares responsibility for that with the General Assembly.

Bacon’s bottom line: My purpose is not to discredit McAuliffe’s performance as economic-development chieftain, which has been pretty good overall, but to dampen expectations that this governor (or any governor) has much impact on year-to-year changes in Virginia’s business climate. Burnishing a state’s business climate takes a long-term commitment from governors, legislators, business and civic leaders, and local government officials. I’ll have more to say about that in my next post.